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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Wolves v Norwich - 1.56 Wolves

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Wolves home matches against bottom-six teams and in 9/12 Norwich away matches. Norwich have lost 9/13 away matches.

Wolves - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home.
  • Opponent led at halftime in 7/13 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower. 3/3 wins v 17th and lower at home, scoring 2 goals.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Norwich - 20th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 2 goals scored away only in that win.
  • 5/6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Norwich have trouble scoring 2 goals away and that may be their ruin today even if scoring first.
  • Wolves consecutive 0-0 pattern I will expect to end. They tend to win and score 2 goals v the bottom 4 at home and away.

14:00 - Man Utd v Watford - 1.63 Man Utd

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Man Utd home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 6/9 Man Utd such matches. Watford have lost 8/10 away matches against top-half teams.

Man Utd - 7th

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Did end up beating Chelsea 0-2 last match, rather out of the blue.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-0 loss to Watford last head to head.
  • 3-2-4 goals scored at home v 15th and lower.

Watford - 19th

  • After 4 wins in his first 5 matches, Nigel Pearson have managed Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw.
  • Interestingly Watford only lost at halftime in their first match under Pearson.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 matches under Pearson.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw away. 3 consecutive 1-0 leads at halftime away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market so says the seasonal stats but Man Utd have just come off a run of failing to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. They do score 2+ goals v 15th and lower but meet a Watford under Nigel Pearson who have threatened. 3 consecutive 1-0 leads last 3 away matches.
  • The wheelnuts have come loose just a tad for Watford under Pearson after a strong Pearson-led start. If Watford lead at halftime it may not be a shock but they are currently vulnerable 2nd half.

16:30 - Arsenal v Everton - 2.12 Arsenal

  • Match outcome: Arsenal have won 15/19 home matches against middle-third teams while Everton have lost 10/14 away matches against middle-third teams. Arsenal have won by two or more goals in 14/19 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • New manager for both sides.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 for Arsenal. Only 2 wins. 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • A marked increase in scoring and conceding for Everton under Ancellotti. 2-2 v Newcastle, 3-2 v Watford and 3-1 v Palace. All sides at the wrong end of the league.
  • Everton remain unbeaten at halftime under Ancellotti. Under Ancellotti, only 1 loss came v Man City.
  • Angles? Tough to call as each new manager's philosophy is being embedded. I thought Everton were defensively sound but then they concede 2-2-1- goals in their last 3 matches.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Osasuna v Granada - 2.04 Osasuna

  • Asian handicap: Granada CF have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches and they have conceded first in 9/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Osasuna home matches.

Osasuna - 11th

  • Win, loss, loss, win recently.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 8th and 10th.
  • Scored and conceded at home v the top 10.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.

Granada - 9th

  • Only 4 wins since 31st October 2019 came at home.
  • 8 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Not beaten a top 16 side away.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams may score if Osasuna continue their record v the top 10. Granada have a terrible away record which may naturally favour Osasuna.

13:00 - Alaves v Athletic Bilbao - 2.88 Athletico Bilbao

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Alaves home matches and in 12/15 Ath. Bilbao away matches. Ath. Bilbao have conceded first in 10/19 away matches.

15:00 - Valladolid v Espanyol - 2.74 Valladolid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/14 Valladolid home matches and in 6/8 Espanyol away matches against bottom-half teams. Valladolid have drawn the first half in 9/16 home matches.

17:30 - Getafe v Sevilla - 2.5 Getafe

  • Match outcome: Getafe have won 7/10 home matches while Sevilla have lost by two or more goals in 10/16 trips to top-six teams. Sevilla have lost the first half in 10/12 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Villarreal - 1.69 Atletico Madrid

  • Match outcome: Atl. Madrid have won 13/19 home matches while Villarreal have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/14 Villarreal away matches.

Atl Madrid - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 2 losses came away recently.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 at home.
  • 42% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 8.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 9.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Villareal - 6th

  • 6 wins, a draw and a loss last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away matches, scoring and conceding.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines in 8 matches at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away, scored last 12 away.
  • All scorelines away v the top 14 were either 2-1 or 1-2.

Conclusions

  • The form side is Villareal, it must be said. Atl Madrid have trouble scoring 2 goals at home v the top 9 and that will leave them vulnerable if Villareal continue to score and concede away (3 wins and a draw).
  • 2-1/1-2 scoreline possibly? Check out that VIllareal away record v the top 14.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Genoa v Lazio - 1.74 Lazio

  • 1st goal: Genoa have conceded first in 12/20 home matches while Lazio have won 8/12 away matches against bottom-six teams. Lazio have scored first in 9/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Genoa - 18th

  • 2 draws and now 2 wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 defeats at home v the top 8.
  • 6 goals conceded last 15 mins of home matches.

Lazio - 2nd

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 19 and in 8 away.
  • Scored last 8 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away. 5 1-1 scorelines.
  • 4-3-4-5-3-4-2-5-1 goals scored home and away v 14th and lower.
  • Only loss outside of the top 3 came v bottom side.
  • 5 2-1 scorelines (3 wins and a loss) v 11th and lower away.
  • 9/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Sudden bit of form for Genoa anything to worry about? Well, they have not beaten a top 9 side yet and meet a Lazio tending towards 2-5 goals scored v 14th and lower.
  • Genoa do score and concede v the top 8 and Lazio do score and concede v 11th and lower away so the form suggests if Genoa score, they are unlikely to win.
  • Argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 5 1-1 draws at halftime away.

14:00 - Torino v Parma - 2.2 Torino

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/14 Torino FC home matches and in 13/20 Parma away matches. Parma have conceded first in 9/14 away matches.

Torino - 14th

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3/4.
  • New manager after 2 games - 1-3 loss v Sampdoria and 1-0 loss v AC Milan.

Parma - 7th

  • 3 wins in 8 matches, 2 came at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th-17th. Unbeaten home and away v 12th-19th.

Conclusions

  • New manager syndrome for Torino clouds the research. We simply don't know what impact this new manager will have game after game. Parma, though, are tough - unbeaten v 9th-17th away and home and away v 12th-19th. Torino may be in for a rough day?

14:00 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.38 Atalanta

  • Match outcome: Atalanta have won 8/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Sassuolo have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. Sassuolo have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Atalanta - 4th

  • 3 wins and a 2-2 last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home in 11.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 12 and last 7 at home.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 11th, 14th and 20th. 1-4 win v Sassuolo earlier.

Sassuolo - 12th

  • 3 wins, a draw and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 33% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side but only played 1st of the top 4 away - a 2-2 draw.
  • Only 3 wins away v 6th, 19th and 20th.
  • Scored 2 goals away v the top 5 without winning.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in good recent form.
  • Do not expect a full time 0-0. 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home for Atalanta.
  • Watch if Sassuolo score 2 goals. They have done so twice away v the top 5 without winning.

14:00 - Verona v Cagliari - 2.02 Verona

  • Match outcome: Verona have won 6/10 home matches while Cagliari have lost by two or more goals in 11/19 trips to top-six teams. Cagliari have lost 15/20 away matches against top-six teams.

Verona - 6th

  • 3 consecutive home wins. Unbeaten in 9 and in 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goal matches at home.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower 1-0-1-0-1 scored at home v 5th to 13th.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari - 11th

  • No win in 10 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 13 and last 7 away.
  • 3 losses away v 1st, 15th and 18th.Have beaten 4th, 7th and 9th away.

Conclusions

  • Hugely contrasting recent form. Cagliari are in a mire. No win in 10 and 7 away. Verona are unbeaten in 9 so really cannot be discounted. Were this the first half of the season, I would be with Cagliari.
  • There is a slight Achilles Heel with Verona. 1-0-1-0-1 scored at home v 5th-13th (where Cagliari are). Are they vulnerable if scoring first? Can Cagliari actually be trusted currently?

17:00 - Roma v Lecce - 1.37 Roma

  • Match outcome: Roma have won 18/19 home matches against bottom-six teams while Lecce have lost by two or more goals in 6/12 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Lecce away matches.

Roma - 5th

  • 5 losses, a win and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 0-1 win v Lecce earlier.
  • 3 goals scored at home v bottom 3.

Lecce - 16th

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% defeats v top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Lecce are in excellent winning form, even beating Napoli at Napoli. But their record all season v the top 7 away is 100% defeats.
  • Roma are vulnerable now, 5 losses in 7 matches and 3 losses in 4 at home so now is the time to get them. Whilst Lecce are 5th bottom, Roma have scored 3 goals v the bottom 3 so may find strugglers easier.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.36 Inter

  • Match outcome: Inter Milan have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sampdoria have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. Inter Milan have won by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Inter - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses came v Juventus and Lazio latest.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored last 9.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/12 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 1-3 win v Samp last head to head.

Sampdoria - 17th

  • Only 3 wins in 11. Win sporadically.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
  • 11 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Samp don't beat the top 13. Simple as that! Inter do have Europa League football up and coming but look in good nick. No defeat in 8 at home and only 2 losses all season. They have scored and conceded in their last 3 at home but even if Samp score I don't expect Samp to win.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leverkusen v Augsburg - 1.5 Leverkusen

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Leverkusen home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/12 Augsburg away matches. Augsburg have lost by two or more goals in 10/19 away matches.

Leverkusen - 5th

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.
  • 0-3 win v Augsburg last head to head.

Augsburg - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side.
  • 17 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg consistently lose to the top 6 and given Leverkusen's recent run of 5 wins in 6, I expect that record to continue. Simple angle.

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Mainz - 1.83 Wolfsburg

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 FSV Mainz 05 away matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 6/9 FSV Mainz 05 such matches. Wolfsburg have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches.

Wolfsburg - 9th

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.
  • 0-1 win v Mainz last match.
  • Not beaten 14th and lower at home.
  • But....3 wins and a draw away v same.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mainz - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 9.
  • 7 goals conceded away last 15 mins first half, 12 goals conceded away last 15 mins 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Mainz's record v the top 9 is terrible. But Wolf have only 1 win in 7 matches at home.
  • I would expect goals so take on any 0-0 2nd half.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

13:30 - St Johnstone v Rangers - 1.4 Rangers

  • 1st goal: St Johnstone have conceded first in 6/9 home matches against top half non-Big One teams while Rangers have won 8/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Rangers have had W/W double results in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

St Johnstone - 8th

  • Draw, win, win, draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home came v Celtic.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Tend to lose heavily without scoring v the top 2.

Rangers - 2nd

  • 0-4 win away at St Johnstone last time.
  • 2 consecutive away losses v Hearts and Kilmarnock.

Conclusions

  • Rangers are on a 2 match away losing run and have been suffering with their inability to score 2 goals away.They must address this but play a St J. unable to score v the top 2 in 3 attempts.

15:00 - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.2 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 13/14 home matches against middle-third teams while Kilmarnock have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 trips to Big One teams. Kilmarnock have lost 7/10 away matches against Big One teams.

Celtic - 1st

  • 18 wins in 19 matches.
  • 16 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored last 13 at home.
  • 7 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Kilmarnock - 7th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away losses ended with a win last away match.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 matches and conceded last 11 matches.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 7/10 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2 3-1 wins already for Celtic v Kilmarnock this season.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 2+ goals for Celtic scored recently.