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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

16:00 - Everton v Tottenham - 2.34 Tottenham

  • New Everton manager so no look at head to heads.
  • No win in 4 for 8th placed Everton. 4 wins and 2 draws at home last 6.
  • Everton have scored in each of their last 9 at home.
  • Everton have not met the top 7 at home and have no win home or away v top 11 sides.
  • No draw for Tottenham this season. 10 wins in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Spurs have scored in their last 10 away.
  • 8 wins and a loss away v 6th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half for the Spurs.
  • Everton's inability to beat the top 11 suggests problems today BUT....they are yet to meet the top 7 at home and that makes it hard to anticipate how they will perform at home.
  • Based on Spurs away, they'll expect a win away v 6th and lower with Everton 8th.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:30 - Aston Villa v Leeds - 2.44 Aston Villa

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Villa last 2 head to heads.

Aston Villa (8th)

  • 3 score draws last 4 matches, one a 5-5 and 2 were 2-2.
  • Unbeaten in 7.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • Not played top 6 at home.

Leeds (1st)

  • 5 consecutive wins, 4 clean sheets in the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 16 matches and last 11 away.
  • 3 wins in 4 away v the top 5. 8 to be a good candidate?

Conclusions

  • Both teams score consistently. Is that going to continue as the quality of opponent improves? Note Villa not played top 6 at home. A concern form reading there. If Leeds, though, are beating top 5 away, then 8th is within their compass? Lay Villa if Villa score first?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Wolfsburg - 2.56 Augsburg.

  • Research prior to the result of the 18th December match.
  • 2 2-1 Augsburg wins and a 0-0 in head to head.
  • 4 defeats and a 1-1 last 5 for Augsburg. Gone really off the boil. Scored and conceded still in all bar 1 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet though.
  • Not beaten the top 11 yet.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Wolfsburg, includes 2 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 wins away in 4 now.
  • 3 wins and a loss for the Wolf away v 11th and lower.
  • Note the 2.56 odds - it does not dismiss any side or result. On form, the Wolf have stumbled across winning form away, and are winning v 11th and lower (Augsburg are 14th). On that basis, the Wolf should be favoured here and Augsburg opposed if leading.

17:00 - Hoffenheim v Mainz - 1.48 the Hoff

  • Poor old Hoff manager will need this Christmas Break. Heart palpatations managing this lot.
  • Research done prior to mid week result.
  • 4 wins and 4 draws for the Hoff now.
  • They scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches. A most unexpected 0-0 last match.
  • The only match they failed to score in. One of only 2 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home for the Hoff. Usually reliable 2nd half goalscorers.
  • Their 3 defeats have come v the top 5.
  • 12 of 13 home goals scored 2nd half.
  • Only 5 wins for Mainz. They have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 aways.
  • 4 defeats in 5 away v top 13. 4/4 defeats v top 4 - will that extend to 6th?
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Prepare for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime. An anomolous 0-0 last time for the Hoff. Mainz are losing to top 5 away - does that expect to 6th?  Usually both teams score in Hoff matches. Both teams have scored in 6 of Mainz's last 7 matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Utrecht v Ajax - 1.34 Ajax

  • 1-2 Utrecht and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Interesting to note their unbeaten head to heads v strong favourites Ajax.
  • 2 top 4 teams.
  • 7 wins for Utrecht came within the last 9 matches.
  • Utrecht have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Utrecht.
  • 3-3-3-3 goals before halftime in recent Utrecht matches.
  • Utrecht have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Utrecht. Utrecht have not played the top 3 at home yet.
  • 13 goals scored first half for Utrecht.
  • Only 1 loss for Ajax. 10 consecutive wins for Ajax. Ajax have scored in every match.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 10 matches for Ajax.
  • Watch out for an impressive home performance from Utrecht who have, though, not met the top 3 yet at home. Note the head to heads too. It all points to laying Ajax if Ajax scored first given they are so short already in the market.
  • On the stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - De Graafschap v Vitesse - 1.5 Vitesse

  • No recent head to heads.

De Graafschap (18th)

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No home draw.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Did beat Feyenoord first match of the season at home but an anomoly. All other defeats v the top 10 home and away.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came first half.

Vitesse (6th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. 4 defeats in 5 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Defeats away v 1st, 3rd, 14th and 17th. Inconsistent. Away wins v 13th and 15th.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • If you don't score, you don't win. That's the negative for De Graafschap.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. De Graaf are likely to concede first half.
  • I am concerned with Vitesse poor form away. 4 defeats in 5 away. Losing too to 14th and 17th away and playing 18th today. It is a concern, particularly as they are 1.5 odds. But the crucial factor may be De Graaf's inability to score recently.

13:30 - ADO Den Haag v Feyenoord - 1.63 Feyenoord

  • 2-2 and 3-1 Feyenoord last 2 head to heads in the league.
  • Only 5 wins for ADO this season. They won their last match.
  • Only 3 clean sheets for ADO.
  • 1-0-0 goals scored at home in their last 3 matches.
  • ADO have no win v top 9 this season, Feyenoord is 3rd. They failed to score in 3/4 matches away v top 5.
  • Feyenoord had a headscratching 0-2 loss to Fortuna Sittard last match, ending their 100% win record. I could not foresee this defeat, as much of a shock as Dortmund 2-1 loss to Dusseldorf recently.
  • Feyenoord are more vulnerable away from home.Only 3 wins in 7 matches. Wins came v 7th, 8th and 12th away. Only away losses for Feyenoord v 2nd and 18th.
  • A watching brief to start with here given Feyenoord's shock loss last match. In head to heads, they have 2+ goals v ADO. ADO have had trouble scoring v the top 5. Really, ADO should be conceding today. I will check the in-play stats.

15:45 - Emmen v Willem II - 2.5 Emmen

  • 12th v 13th and another lower profile match. The market is unappealing too.
  • Both sides have only 4 wins. Both teams have scored in 12 Emmen matches this season.
  • Only the one clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime for Emmen saw 2+ goals 2nd half so note that.
  • With home losses v 3rd, 5th, 14th, 15th there is an element of inconsistency at home.
  • 80% of goals scored and 69% of goals conceded by Emmen at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 4 wins Willem II. 5 losses in 7 for Willem II.
  • Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away for Willem II.
  • Willem II away are unbeaten v 5th-17th.  They scored 2 goals at least 4 times v 5th to 17th.
  • On that latter stat, there may be a threat from Willem II? Watch out for 0-0 at halftime and 2+ goals 3nd half. Both teams could score in Emmen matches and if Willem can score 2 goals again, then lay Emmen if Emmen scores first. Do remember, only 4 wins all season for both teams suggests these are lesser lights.

SPL

12:15 - St Johnstone v Rangers - 1.59 Rangers

  • A poor recent run in attack for Rangers. They are not scoring a 2nd goal.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches for St Johnstone came last match.
  • St Johnstone failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met at St Johnstone. Only 1 win home and away v top 6.
  • Only 3 losses for Rangers. Only 1 goal max. managed last 4 matches in all competitions.
  • No evidence for me yet of Rangers altering their poor scoring record so I would lay them if they scored first today. I am sure this malaise will end at some point but remember St Johnstone have failed to score in only 3 matches themselves.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Valencia v Huesca - 1.41 Valencia

  • Only 3 defeats for Valencia - 10 draws. The draw-itis is returning now. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals for Valencia.
  • Valencia have only 1 home loss. They are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • For Huesca, only the one win all season came away v 13th. 2 goals scored by Huesca away v 13th and 18th.
  • Are Valencia in a false position? Only 3 defeats. But 10 draws means they are not losing but dropping 20 points. I feel they are not worthy of 14th and therefore Huesca's scoring of 2 goals v 13th and 18th away may not be a pattern shown today.
  • Valencia scored 3 goals at home v 17th and meet 18th today. I would side with Valencia not to lose.

15:15 - Leganes v Sevilla - 2.34 Sevilla

  • 16th v 2nd here. Sevilla are taking advantage of other sides' underperformance this season.
  • Leganes are unbeaten in 6 matches but 4 draws.
  • They are unbeaten in 5 home matches. Only 3 clean sheets for Leganes.
  • Leganes at home are unbeaten v the top 7. 2-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1 so will they be competitive v Sevilla?
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home by Leganes came 2nd half.
  • Sevilla have only 3 defeats. Only 1 loss in 12 was v Barcelona who they have a poor record with.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • Sevilla are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • It is a tough match to dismiss Leganes in. Look at that superb record at home v the top 7. No fluke there as it is consistent. The fact though that they scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 7 may suggest laying Leganes if Leganes score first. Only 3 defeats for Sevilla and solid record v 8th and lower leads me to favour them not to lose today. They do have a worrying draw sequence away.

17:30 - Rayo Vallecano v Levante - 2.18 Rayo

Rayo (19th)

  • 2nd bottom and favourites?
  • Only 2 wins were 1-0.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • 100% defeats v the top 10 this season.
  • They scored and conceded in all home defeats v top 7.
  • They actually scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match.

Levante (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came v Sociedad and Barcelona.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away with 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower home and away. 2 score draws away.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Because of the workload I am researching this early so the market may be illiquid and the odds not accurate. Because....for me, Levante look like they should be favourites. Rayo are losing v top 10. They are scoring and conceding at home so on that basis look layable if scoring first. Levante have failed to score in only 2 matches so note that (and should score 2nd half if not first half this match).