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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 22, 2017

14:00 for the live chat for me today will capture the end of the first half in a tough-to-call Everton v Arsenal. I was pleased with the trickle of trades yesterday in the live chat with one big winner (Silkeborg - one member backed them at odds of 27 - ker ching).

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

13:30 - Everton v Arsenal - 2.04 Arsenal

  • 5 wins in 6 for Arsenal in head to heads. Sunday match because both sides had a Thursday Europa League match.

Everton

  • Only 2 wins came at home v Stoke and Bournemouth. Draws away 1-1 v Man City and Brighton.
  • Losses came v Chelsea, Tottenham, Man Utd, and....Burnley.
  • Only 1 clean sheet first match of the season.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Not beaten a current top 7 team. Arsenal are 6th.

Arsenal

  • All 4 wins came at home.
  • 3 losses away and a draw.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A very uninspiring pair. Strictly on form, Everton have lost to the established top sides.....and Burnley.
  • Arsenal are solid at home, rubbish away, despite 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • I cannot trust either side at the moment.

16:00 - Tottenham v Liverpool - 2.18 Tottenham

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 10 head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss for either side this season.

Tottenham

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Loss, draw, draw, win at home. 1-1-0-1 goals scored at home.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 3-3-4 scored in away matches but it all dries up at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All 3 home goals scored came 2nd half.

Liverpool

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 matches.
  • No 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool love meeting Tottenham historically.
  • These are 2 teams, like the other Premiership match, who are dodgier than an Arthur Daley and Derek Trotter car sales business.
  • Tottenham are great away from home, scoring for fun but at home, they scored 1-1-0-1.
  • Liverpool have 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • On this season's form, Liverpool should not win, but in Tottenham at home, they play a team whose form leaves them
  • I am leaving this match alone.

12:00 - Ipswich v Norwich City - 2.16 Norwich

  • 3 1-1 draws in the last 4 head to heads.
  • These 2 are top 10 early season.

Ipswich

  • No draw.
  • 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • All losses bar 1 came v current top 9 teams.
  • All wins have come v 17th and lower so need that context.

Norwich

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw here and 0-0 falls into that category. The form team is Norwich here. Ipswich have 5 losses in 7 matches and their wins have come v the current teams 17th and lower.
  • I would favour Norwich not to lose but note that this is a local derby of sorts.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Chievo v Verona - 1.88 Chievo

Chievo

  • Only 2 defeats v Lazio and Juventus.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came within the last 3 matches.
  • 1-2, 1-1, 2-1 at home.

Verona

  • Only 1 win came last match against a fellow newly promoted side.
  • 0-0, 3-0, 2-2 away.
  • Only scored their 2 away goals in the last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • I do not expect Verona to win today. Verona tend to concede 2+ goals v the top teams.
  • If Chievo concede (as they have done at home), and concede first, Verona are clearly layable then.

14:00 - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.51 AC Milan

  • The home side has won the last 4 head to heads.

AC Milan

  • No draw.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 wins at home then a 0-2 v Roma.
  • At least one team has scored 2 goals in all matches this season.
  • All defeats have come v the current top 6. All wins v the current bottom 8 teams. Genoa are 4th bottom.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Genoa

  • Only win was a 2-3 v Cagliari last match.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 in 3 aways.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came first match of the season.

Conclusions

  • On head to heads, the home team wins.....simple!
  • AC Milan should score 2 goals at least today. Their 3 consecutive defeats need a context - v the current top 6. They are playing bottom 8 today and tend to win.
  • Genoa may have trouble even scoring.

14:00 - Atalanta v Bologna - 1.62 Atalanta

  • 3 consecutive head to heads have seen Atalanta score 2 goals at least.

Atalanta

  • Samp, Napoli and Roma the 3 teams to beat Atalanta this season.
  • 2-5-2 goals scored last 3 home matches includes a 2-2 v Juventus.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in the last 7 matches.

Bologna

  • 3 consecutive wins, 0-1 0-1 2-1 so needing a good defence.
  • Only 2 losses to Napoli and Fiorentina.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 1-1-1-1 scored away resulted in 3 wins.
  • All wins have come v the current bottom 4 sides. Significant?
  • No team has scored or conceded in the first half away.

Conclusions

  • It takes a good 'un to beat Atalanta. Bologna have 3 consecutive wins but on closer inspection their wins have come against the current bottom 4 sides which may put a proper context on the scorelines.
  • Bologna do look to have a defensive bent but may be vulnerable to last year's top 4 team Atalanta and their scoring of 2 goals regularly and an average of 3 a match last 3 at home.
  • Both teams could score but Bologna's clean sheet and nick a goal tactic may not work today.

14:00 - Benevento v Fiorentina - 1.6 Fiorentina

Benevento

  • All defeats.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 0-0-0-1 scored at home.

Fiorentina

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches came away v a newly promoted side.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3 away defeats came v top 9 teams.
  • Benevento are bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • We should expect Fiorentina to eye the win. Yes 3 away defeats but they did come v the top 9 and Benevento are bottom of the league scoring only once in 4 home matches.

14:00 - Spal v Sassuolo - 2.46 Spal

Spal

  • Only 1 win at home was 3-2.
  • 2-2-3-1 conceded at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2-2-2-2-3-1-2 goals conceded.

Sassuolo

  • 3 losses and a 0-1 win away.
  • 3-2-0-6 goals conceded away.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are conceding goals for fun and are not in the best of form so I will leave this one alone and concentrate on more readable matches.

14:00 - Torino v Roma - 2.06 Roma

  • Roma won the last 2 home head to heads at Roma, Torino 1-1 and 3-1 last 2 home head to heads.

Torino

  • Only loss was v Juventus.
  • 2-2, 2-3 win, 2-2, 2-2 in matches around that loss.
  • 3-0, 2-2, 2-2 at home for Torino.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

AS Roma

  • No draw.
  • All wins bar 2 defeats v Napoli and Inter Milan, the 1 and 2 in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 wins without conceding away.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • With Roma's ability to score, 2-2 does attract me here as a trading angle. Look at Torino's record recently.

17:00 - Udinese v Juventus - 1.46 Juventus

  • 2-1 Juve and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Juve are losing touch with the top 2 so need to get back on the winning track.

Udinese

  • No draw.
  • 2 wins came at home.
  • Outside of those wins, both teams scored in defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 1-1-2-4 goals scored at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not met the current top 4.
  • No 0-0.

Juventus

  • Only loss came last match v Lazio in a pre-Champions League match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No win in 2 matches now.
  • Scored and conceded in the 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Juventus have not won in 2 matches and you can bet they will be going all out for a win today.
  • Udinese have conceded 2 goals at least in their last 2 home matches and Juventus are certainly capable of this.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Udinese have scored in every match. I would lay Udinese if Udinese scored first. I do feel Juventus could get the win today that they need in order to get back into the title race what with Napoli and Inter Milan meeting each other.

19:45 - Lazio v Cagliari - 1.28 Lazio

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.

Lazio

  • Only loss v top 2 Napoli.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came 1st match of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 matches.

Cagliari

  • All defeats bar 2 wins.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No away draw.
  • 2+ goals conceded in the 4 losses v top 10.

Conclusions

  • On form, Cagliari should be conceding 2 or 3 goals today in defeat.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Note Lazio have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match. We would want Cagliari to score first to allow a value entry point.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Nice  v Strasbourg - 1.59 Nice

Nice

  • 1-2-4-2-2 goals scored at home but only 2 wins in those matches.
  • 2-4-2 goals conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.

Strasbourg

  • Only 1 win came at home.
  • 0-1-0-0-1 goals scored away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Nice are in questionable form and conceded 8 goals in their last 3 matches. They do consistently score 2 goals at home though and that may be enough against a Strasbourg side who are now struggling this season.
  • If Strasbourg cannot score more than 1 away, that could be the home win. Strasbourg's away goals have generally been conceded 2nd half so note that if they have not conceded by halftime.

16:00 - Troyes v Olympique Lyonnais - 1.67 Lyon

Troyes

  • 1-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-1 at home.
  • 1-1-0-1-1 goals conceded at home.
  • Only conceded 2 goals last match, a 2-2.

Lyon

  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 4-2-3-0-2-0-3-3-3 goals scored this season.
  • Lyon have had 3 3-3 score draws and a 3-2 win.7 over 2.5 goals matches in 9.
  • Only lost to PSG away.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Hmmm. Troyes have a tactic. Try not to concede 2 goals and try and score.
  • Well they have failed to score in 3 at home despite not conceding 2 goals at home.
  • Lyon, if they can score their 2 goals, have a great chance of winning. Lyon do concede 2 goals at lot but actually tend to fight back.

20:00 - Marseille v PSG - 1.43 PSG

  • PSG tend to enjoy a visit to Marseille with 2-4-5 goals scored in the last 3 visits.

Marseille

  • Only 2 defeats v Monaco and Rennes.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches. Scored 2 goals at least in all of their last 4 matches.
  • Not played the top 9 at home and did concede heavily away v 2nd.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSG

  • All wins bar a 0-0.
  • Struggled really in pre Champions League matches. No such distraction on this occasion.
  • 3-5-0-2 goals scored away.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With any PSG match, after splashing the cash, we expect a win. PSG enjoy meeting Marseille and should continue this. Their recent struggles, including in the away win v Dijon, were care of pre-Champions League distractions.
  • Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime. Marseille concede away and PSG score at home.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

11:00 - Villarreal v Las Palmas - 1.46 Villareal

  • 2 1-0 Las Palmas wins in the last 3 head to heads.

Villareal

  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 6 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • All wins v bottom 5 this season and Las Palmas are 3rd bottom currently.

Las Palmas

  • No draw sees all defeats bar 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime did not end 0-0 fulltime.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 goals conceded 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • Villareal should eye the win today. They tend to beat bottom 5 sides.
  • Las Palmas do tend towards a 0-0 at halftime but not 0-0 fulltime in those matches so watch out for that.

15:15 - Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid - 1.83 Atl Madrid

  • 2-4-3 goals scored by Atl Madrid in the last 3 head to head wins.

Celta Vigo

  • Loss, win, draw, draw at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 home matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 6 of 8 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime. 2-2-1-2-1-3-4-2 total goals before halftime.
  • All wins have come v current bottom 5 sides.

Atl Madrid

  • Unbeaten this season.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • 3 draws and a 1-2 away. Not losing but not really winning.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime and 2 of those were 0-0 at fulltime.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Take a chance on that from Celta Vigo's form, and not really Madrid's.
  • Celta have conceded 3 and 2 goals in their last 2 matches so that could give Atl Madrid a chance today to end their draw sequence.

17:30 - Leganes v Athletic Bilbao - 2.56 Leganes

  • 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Leganes

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • 4 clean sheets in a row.
  • 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 1 home match home and away v top 11 where Bilbao reside.

Ath Bilbao

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Unreadable form this season - beat 5th, lose to 16th.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao are unreadable. A team I would expect more of has only 1 win in 5 and they are beating and losing to teams at polar opposite sides of the league.
  • The market does tell us, doesn't it? 2.56 odds the favourite.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Eibar - 1.11 Real Madrid

  • 1-1 and 1-4 Real Madrid last 2 head to heads.

Real Madrid

  • Only 2 clean sheets so we might see an Eibar goal again.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Win at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Eibar

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away, all defeats.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Eibar have been conceding heavily away v top 1/2 teams so at their best Real Madrid can get 3 goals at least today.
  • This is not a Real at its best at all with only 1 win in 4 at home.
  • Their 2 wins have been 1-0. Fat chance of keeping Real Madrid from scoring. Real have now scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches, all wins.
  • Eibar concede heavily 2nd half so fear not if the match is 0-0 at halftime.

PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA

16:00 - Aves v Benfica - 1.37 Benfica

  • Benfica like meeting Aves, scoring 13 goals in the last 3 head to heads.

Aves

  • Only 1 win.
  • 0-0-2-0 scored at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • I like seeing results v Braga, Porto, Sporting Lisbon when a team is playing Benfica.
  • Well it is a steady stream of 0-2 defeats for Aves.

Benfica

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Poor on their travels, 1-1, 2-1, 1-1 last 3 aways. This is a benfica who should be winning.
  • 1-1-1-1 scored away.
  • They have scored in every match.

Conclusions

  • The value seeker would be laying this current Benfica side, particularly if scoring first. If they cannot score that 2nd goal away then they are vulnerable.
  • Benfica may get away with it with an Aves side tending to lose 0-2 to the big guns. That 0-2 is the ideal scoreline.

16:00 - Tondela v Belenenses - 2.54 Tondela

20:15 -Sporting Lisbon v Chaves - 1.23 Sporting Lisbon

  • 2-2, 4-1 Sporting in the last 2 head to heads.

Sporting Lisbon

  • All wins but now 2 consecutive draws.
  • Failed to score only in their last match, a 0-0.
  • Only conceded one home goal.

Chaves

  • These Chavs have a reputation as an untrustworthy team, even when their opponents get red carded.
  • 2 wins and a draw now.
  • Lost to Benfica and Porto.

Conclusions

  • Sporting Lisbon should be winning on form. Chaves have lost to the other big 2 teams benfica and Porto.
  • Sporting should end the draw sequence.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - FC Koln v Werder Bremen - 2.48 FC Koln

  • 1-1 and 4-3 Koln in the last head to heads. We expect nothing else of Werder but this season's Werder are poor.
  • These are the current bottom 2.

FC Koln

  • All defeats bar a 0-0.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 1-0-1 scored at home.

Werder Bremen

  • 4 defeats and 4 draws.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 7 matches and in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 0-0's within the last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 3 away.
  • All draws v bottom 6.

Conclusions

  • Not a match to dwell upon. Werder's usual both teams scoring and goal before halftime cannot be relied upon until changes occur.
  • Strictly on form, Werder will not lose. They have drawn all matches v bottom 6 teams.

14:30 - Freiburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.68 Hertha

  • 2-1 Hertha and 2-1 Freiburg in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 2 bottom 6 sides. It seems we see the dregs on a Sunday in Germany (so far!).

Freiburg

  • A solid look at home and have met some good away sides in Leipzig (4-1 loss), Leverkusen (4-0 loss), Werder (0-0) and Bayern (5-0 loss).
  • Draw, draw, draw, win at home.

Hertha Berlin

  • 2 of 3 defeats came away.
  • Only clean sheet on opening day.
  • Dortmund, Hoff, Mainz played away without winning.

Conclusions

  • It is a tough set of matches in Germany as the odds suggest and this exemplifies that. On form, Freiburg are solid at home so far and could come away with a draw worst case scenario.
  • Hertha are likely to concede. Hertha have met good sides away in Dortmund and Hoff particularly. Freiburg beat Hoff at home so confidence there.
  • A reminder, 2.68 the favourite is no favourite at all in my eyes!!

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.54 Wolfsburg

  • 0-0 and 2-1 Wolfs in the last 2 head to heads.

Wolfsburg

  • 5 score draws in 6 matches. Leaking points.
  • 3 consecutive score draws at home after a loss v Dortmund.
  • 2-2 with Bayern away so can be a thorn for these top 5 sides.
  • Have scored first on 3 occasions at home and remember those score draws.

Hoffenheim

  • Only 1 loss came away last match, 3-2 v Freiburg.
  • 2-3-2 scored away from home.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Have conceded 2-2-3 v 9th and lower away from home (whilst still scoring their obligatory 2 goals of course).

Conclusions

  • A clear angle emerges. Wolfsburg tend to score first at home, and not win. Lay them if they score first. In Hoff, we have a team scoring 2 goals with regularity so a hope this can be with us today.
  • If you are feeling speculative, 2-2 , 3-2, 2-3 are correct scores which may see a trading angle. That is, if Hoff consent to score and concede 2 goals at least v teams 9th and lower away from home.