Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 21, 2017

A 2pm live chat start for me today, simultaneously broadcast on Twitter @drtclub. We see Italian Seria A with 2 matches remaining for most of the sides. Spain concludes today with the big guns all having 7pm kick offs. The Premiership ends today largely with European places to fight over.
I have not researched the dead rubbers. See you at 2pm.

14:00 - Genoa v Torino - 1.94 Genoa

  • 1-0 Torino last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 9th in the Italian Seria A.
  • 2 matches remain this season, that's a possible 6 points.
  • Genoa are 2 points above the relegation zone so 3 points here could be priceless.
  • Torino gain little here with 2 wins.
  • 7 defeats, a draw and a win for Genoa in their last 9 matches. The win was a 1-0 last home match v Inter Milan.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Genoa since 18th December 2016.
  • Wins at home to clean sheets v 6th, 7th and 8th makes things interesting.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded at home by Genoa came 2nd half.
  • Torino's season is over. Only 1 loss in 8 though came v Napoli. But in those 8 matches we saw 5 score draws and they scored and conceded in 14 consecutive matches until that Napoli 5-0.
  • Torino have scored and conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Against 11th and under away from home, Torino lost only 1 away match.
  • Torino scored 20 of their 27 goals away in the 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I have researched because Genoa still has something to play for.
  • Genoa, in beaten 6th-8th at home show they have something. A last win v Inter last home match should enhance their chances of avoiding the drop.
  • Given Torino love the score draw, I would look to lay Torino if Torino scored first.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Cagliari - 1.82 Sassuolo - dead rubber

14:00 - Udinese v Sampdoria - 2.14 Udinese - dead rubber

14:00 - AC Milan v Bologna - 1.38 AC Milan

  • Milan have won 0-1 on the last 2 head to heads.
  • I am not sure there is anything realistic to play for. AC Milan could go 5th but require Atalanta to LOSE their 2 remaining matches and the goal difference of 0 goals to be overcome.
  • No win in 5 for Milan saw both teams score in 3 draws and 2 defeats.
  • The 2 defeats came at home to Empoli and Roma. The Empoli win was the shock and I recall the live chat saw AC Milan absolutely batter Empoli.
  • AC Milan have scored in their last 14 matches.
  • All wins bar 1 for Milan at home to 12th and lower.
  • Only 4 wins in 16 matches for Bologna is only 1 win in 4 recently.
  • Only 1 win in 8 aways for Bologna. Bologna won 2 of their last 3 matches, both at home.
  • 2-0-3-2-3-2 goals before halftime in recent Bologna matches.
  • No win home or away for Bologna v top 8 sides.
  • No win away v top 12.
  • Bologna have conceded 15 goals away in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Bologna have to overcome a dire winless record v top 12 away and no win v top 8 at all.
  • Milan have to end a 2 match losing streak at home. Their home loss to Empoli was worrying.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Bologna's recent concessions.
  • On form Milan should not lose but really must win. Their loss to Empoli is costly in terms of a top 5 place. A win ensures top 5, however unlikely, is still possible for AC Milan.

14:00 - Juventus v Crotone - 1.2 Juventus

  • 0-2 Juventus the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 18th in the Italian Seria A. A win for Juventus today wins them the title.
  • Crotone must win as well today. 31 points and relegation zone. If Crotone do not win and Genoa and Empoli win, then it's goodbye.
  • 5 losses only all season for Juventus. They lost their last match.
  • No win in 3 now for Juve saw 2 score draws. The influence of the Champions League perhaps?
  • Juventus have failed to score only once.
  • They are undefeated in 18 at home.
  • All wins bar that draw last match for Juventus at home.
  • 2 goals scored at least at home v 10th and bottom for Juve.
  • Juventus have not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0 for Juventus this season.
  • Juve have led in 13/18 at home.
  • 5 wins and 2 1-1 draws for Crotone. They are not going without a fight. Superb stuff.
  • Can they really do it?
  • Crotone have to overcome all defeats home and away v top 5, and failing to score v top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • It could be Roy of the Rovers stuff for Crotone if they can continue their superb fight for safety - unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • Surely not? They have failed to score v top 5 away and lost all v top 5 home and away.
  • We do, in our heads, expect Juventus to win and possibly lead at halftime. A win today clinches the title and means the last game of the season can be left alone to rest the players for the Champions League Final.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

14:00 - Empoli v Atalanta - 2.28 Empoli

  • 2-1 Atalanta in the last head to head.
  • This is 17th v 5th in the Italian Seria A.
  • A win for Atalanta absolutely ensures they cannot be caught in 5th place.
  • Empoli are a point above the relegation zone with 6 possible points remaining. Crotone seem to have a thankless task away to Juventus and if Empoli have assumed a Crotone loss, then a win today for Empoli should assure them of survival.
  • This will be a very well fought match.

Empoli

  • 3 wins in 5 matches hints at fight for Empoli. They have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches, and lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Empoli have not kept a clean sheet since 29th January.
  • Empoli have yet to beat a top 10 side.Atalanta are 5th.
  • Empoli have lost all bar a 0-0 draw v top 5 home and away.

Atalanta

  • Atalanta are a tough nut to crack. They have only 2 defeats since 17th December 2016.
  • They do, though, have 5 score draws in their last 6 matches and of course are scoring and conceding.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1 draws for Atalanta.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • Atalanta have beaten all teams 13th and lower away.
  • Atalanta have scored 20 of their 30 away goals 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 'On fom' Atalanta should be winning here. Empoli yet to beat top 10. Atalanta all wins away v 13th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Atalanta score, highly likely they will score first half.
  • Both teams could score and 'on form' Empoli should be layed if scoring first.

15:00 - Man Utd v C Palace - 2.06 Man Utd - dead rubber

  • Man Utd must focus on the Europa League Final as a way into the Champions League. They cannot better 6th spot.
  • It's party time for Palace who are safe from relegation after beating Hull at home.

15:00 - Chelsea v Sunderland - 1.15 Chelsea

  • This is a dead rubber.
  • Sunderland kept Arsenal quiet for 70 minutes before succumbing to the sublime Sanchez and his 2 goals.
  • Chelsea are Champions. 1.15 odds is eminently layable. Sunderland may want to play spoilers here.
  • The usual pattern with Sunderland is a 0-0 at halftime (at best) and then an eventual capitulation 2nd half. The usual pattern with a fully found up Chelsea was to nick a goal at least before halftime.
  • Welcome to Dead Rubber Land!

15:00 - Swansea v West Brom - 2.14 Swansea

  • Swansea will be wiping the sweat from their brow.Their 3 wins in 4 matches, keeping 3 clean sheets, matched with Palace heroics at home ensures they stay in the Premiership for another year.
  • West Brom players have been playing with their flip flops on and a knocked handkerchief on the head for some time now.6 defeats and 2 draws in their last 8 matches.
  • This is a dead rubber.

15:00 - Leicester v Bournemouth - 1.93 Leicester

  • Mid-table mediocrity for these 2. The Great Bard has done a superb job in saving Leicester's season from relegation.
  • It is a dead rubber but I could sniff a goal or 2 here. I will back 2-2 and 3-3 pre match and hope for some end of season fireworks.

15:00 - Arsenal v Everton - 1.54 Arsenal

  • 2-1 Everton the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 5th v 7th in the English Premiership.
  • This is quite simply a must-win for Arsenal in their quest for a top 4 place.
  • Everton go nowhere with a win, loss or draw today.
  • Arsenal are best viewed by their recent matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins now for Arsenal, scoring at least 2 goals in each one.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches for Arsenal. Only Tottenham beat them.
  • 5 clean sheet wins in 6 home matches for Arsenal. Only aberration was a Man City 2-2.
  • Everton's last 7 wins all came at home so Arsenal will be hopeful today.
  • 1-1-0-2-1-1-0-0 goals scored by Everton in recent away matches. If Arsenal continue to score 2 goals, then in 7 of those last 8 aways, they would have won!
  • Everton have not beaten a top 8 side away.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal can win this match - they have the momentum and the need. We may see a nervy Emirates Stadium. It was nervy at times against poorer opponents Sunderland.
  • Everton's recent goal scoring away is very poor and if that pattern continues and indeed Arsenal score 2 as they have done, we should see the Arse do what they have to do to help their top 4 cause. Goal difference may see Arsenal push for a big score today.
  • Everton must be layed if scoring first.

15:00 - Burnley v West Ham - 2.4 Burnley

  • Dead rubber. 3 clean sheets in 4 for West Ham helped them stave off relegation.
  • Burnley have conceded 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches but they will be celebrating in front of home support that they have another year in the Premiership to look forward to.

15:00 - Hull v Tottenham - 1.68 Tottenham

  • Hull's loss to other Londoners Crystal Palace ensures their relegation. Tottenham are assured of 2nd place regardless.
  • Hull lost to all of the top 3 home and away this season.
  • Tottenham are the classier side by a wide margin.

15:00 - Watford v Man City - 1.42 Man City

  • 1-2 and 2-0 Man City wins in recent head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 4th in the Premiership. Watford live to fight another Premiership season.
  • Man City are eyeing a top 3 finish or at least ensuring they finish top 4. City retain 4th with a draw today. A win could set them on their way to top 3.
  • If Man City lose and Arsenal win, dependent on the goals conceded and goals scored by Arsenal, Arsenal could nab 4th spot.
  • 5 losses in a row for Watford plays 5 wins and 2 draws for Man City in their last 7 matches and 3 consecutive wins, albeit at home.
  • Man City have scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 away matches.

Conclusions

  • On form we really should be expecting 2 goals at least from Manchester City and another win.
  • Watford have scored at home v 1st, 2nd and 5th so might score today.
  • This is all about the away side who still have plenty to play for.

15:00 - Liverpool v Middlesbrough - 1.17 Liverpool

  • 0-3 Liverpool the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 3rd v 19th in the Premiership. A win for Liverpool guarantees 3rd place. Boro are relegated.
  • Liverpool have done all of their losing this season outside of the top 9 so are vulnerable but with 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, they lay a strong foundation.
  • No win in 3 at home has to change for Liverpool who have scored 2 goals at least in all bar 1 match at home v 10th and lower.
  • Boro are poor. No win away v top 18 teams. They did draw away v City and Arsenal.

Conclusions

  • Hugely impressive Liverpool performance away at West Ham can continue into this must-win home match. 1.17 odds suggests 3/4 goals at least. Recent form and form v 10th and lower at home suggests 2 goals at least from Liverpool. Boro did draw away v City and Arsenal and might offer resistance but note Liverpool scored 3 of their 4 against West Ham 2nd half so if kept to a 0-0 first half, they should still win 2nd half.

15:00 - Southampton v Stoke - 1.75 Southampton

  • A dead rubber. Stoke have had a relatively poor season but remain in the Premiership for another year.
  • 2 matches remain for Southampton but little to gain other than retention of 8th place.
  • Only 1 win for Stoke in 10 matches was v Hull and that actually seems to have saved the season.
  • Southampton have one win only in 6 matches.
  • Not a match to dwell on.

15:45 - Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad - 1.84 Real Sociedad

  • 1-0 Sociedad in the last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 7th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • 5th and 6th spot is possible for Real Sociedad and the European Club Competition place.
  • Real Sociedad must win today and they play a Celta Vigo with 8 defeats in their last 9 matches and 5 defeats in their last 6 home matches.
  • Sociedad have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
  • Sociedad away have beaten all bar 1 team 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Motivation and form on their side. It would be a disappointment were Sociedad not to get a result against a Celta side in decline as the season ends.
  • Lay Celta if Celta score first.
  • Lay any late draw given Sociedad will be looking for the win.

17:00 - Sarpsborg v Valerenga - 1.93 Sarpsborg

  • 0-2 Valerenga in the last head to head.
  • This is 4th v 7th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats for Sarpsborg  and one was at home to 1st in the league.
  • That was the only loss at home.
  • Sarpsborg have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Sarpsborg have failed to score in only one match and also kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Valerenga. Valerenga have failed to score in only one match.
  • 3 Valerenga defeats away ended with a 0-1 win away.
  • No away draw for Valerenga at halftime and fulltime.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market (that's a draw and Valerenga don't do draws yet away from home at halftime and fulltime).

17:00 - Tromso v Stromsgodset - 2.38 Tromso

  • 1-0 Stroms in the last head to head.
  • This is 9th v 13th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Tromso came in their only home win (in 4 matches).
  • Tromso have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches and beat Rosenborg 1-2 last match. That must encourage them.
  • Tromso's defeats have congregated around 3rd to 6th in the league. They play 13th today.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals for Tromso at home.
  • Tromso are yet to score in both halves at home and have not conceded in both halves this season.
  • No 0-0 this season for Tromso.
  • Stroms have only 2 wins, one was a 1-0 so instantly it seems that Tromso have the better early form.
  • 3 defeats in 4 now for Stroms.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Stroms.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away for Stroms.
  • No 0-0 for Stroms.
  • Stroms have only scored 1 goal and conceded 8 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Acknowledging that there are only 9 matches so far, note the patterns.
  • No 0-0 either side so lay the late 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals both sides so expect 2 goals at least if this pattern continues?
  • For me Tromso have the better early form. Lay Stroms if Stroms score first.

17:00 - Kristiansund v Haugesund - 2.82 Haugesund

  • I'll take the hint here with this Norwegian Eliteserien match's odds. Too tough to call with a 2.82 odds favourite.

17:00 - Aalesunds v Sandefjord - 1.83 Aalesunds

  • These 2 teams last met in 2015 when Aalesunds won both encounters.
  • This is 6th v 8th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches for Aalesunds sees them with the better recent form.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Aalesund's form follows this pattern. No win v top 7, 4 wins and a 1-1 v teams 9th and lower and of course they meet a team between these 2 patterns in 8th today.
  • The 2 home wins were 3-1.
  • No home 0-0 for Aalesunds.
  • 3 of Sandefjord's 4 defeats were away from home. 2 of the defeats were v 13th and 14th.
  • No 0-0 for Sandefjord.

Conclusions

  • If Aalesunds' early pattern this season continues, I think they could beat Sandefjord.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • 3 of Sandefjord's 4 defeats were away - lay Sande if Sande score first?

19:00 - Malaga v Real Madrid - 1.24 Real Madrid

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 1st and quite simply a win or a draw secures the title for Real Madrid.
  • 3 consecutive matches for Real Madrid scoring 4 goals in each.
  • The key stat here is that Real Madrid have scored in every match this season.
  • Rather worryingly, they have scored and conceded in 14 of their last 16 matches.
  • Malaga have 6 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • Malaga have not had a draw at home v top 18 and did beat Barcelona, and FC Sevilla,
  • Malaga only kept a clean sheet at home v one of the top 10.

Conclusions

  • It's not over til it's over. Malaga have shown themselves capable v the top teams and even beat Barcelona 2-0 at home.
  • They have 6 wins in 8 and their last home match could see them attempt to spoil the party.
  • Remember that Real Madrid only need a draw today in order to get the title so that must be noted. It is not a must-win, rather a must not lose.
  • Real Madrid have scored in every match so expectation is for that to continue.
  • An intriguing match. The key player is Ronaldo. His finishing has been exemplary.

19:00 - Barcelona v Eibar - 1.07 Barcelona

  • AS I write Real Madrid are yet to face Celta vigo but I assume a win which would have Real Madrid 3 points ahead of Barcelona having played the same matches.
  • If Real Madrid beat Malaga, the title is theirs.
  • 3-3-7-3-4-4 goals scored by Barcelona recently is in keeping with today's 1.07 quote which suggests 4+ goals.
  • Watch out. Eibar have had 7 under 2.5 goals matches recently, and 1-0 defeats v Ath Bilbao, Atl Madrid and Sporting Gijon.
  • Eibar failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 1-1, 1-0 v top 3 away for Eibar.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona are layable at 1.07 incase the tough to beat Eibar turn up. It is a lay to nothing. It is unlikely to come in but is worth a shot in a match where value is thin on the ground. That said, the last time Barca were short odds it was 0-0 after 20 minutes and a back of 2-0 Barca halftime score yielded at 5/1 return.

19:00 - Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - 2.06 Atl Madrid

  • Madrid have little to play for. Ath Bilbao will be looking to preserve their top 6 spot.
  • Only 2 defeats since 17th December for Atl Madrid. 5 wins in their last 6 at home.
  • No draw in 9 away for Ath Bilbao.
  • Ath Bilbao have lost away to all of the top 5 but Atl Madrid at home have lost to 1st, 2nd and 5th.

Conclusions

  • No ultra strong angles here. Both teams are struggling v the top 5, Atl Madrid at home and Bilbao away.
  • No motivation for Atl Madrid and plenty for Atl Bilbao.
  • A watching brief to see how Madrid are, attitude wise.
  • Lay any late draw? Ath Bilbao keep avoiding draws away.

19:00 - Odds BK v Molde - 2.1 Odd

  • 4-2 Molde the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 3rd v 10th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches.
  • Obviously a good start to the season from Odds.
  • No draw yet for Odd sees 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheet wins to nil.
  • v 9th and lower, Odd have won 5 matches without conceding and lost only one away v bottom side Viking.
  • Odd are yet to lose to nil at home and have not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0 this season for Odd.
  • 7 goals scored and one conceded at home for Odd.
  • Molde have no in in 5 matches with 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 2-0-3-4 goals conceded by Molde in their last 4 away matches. Scully is not happy.
  • Molde have lost away to 1st and 2nd and did score in defeat. They play 3rd today.

Conclusions

  • The usual caveat about only 9 matches to work with, but....
  • Odd must be favoured today on form. They tend to win to nil v teams 9th and lower.
  • I note Molde did score in defeat to 1st and 2nd away and certainly if Molde score first today, I would oppose them.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Do note the market is not as hot as I am about Odd's chances. Is there a reason?
  • Lay any late draw as Odd keep avoiding draws.

19:45 - Lazio v Inter - 2.28 Lazio

  • For me there is little for these 2 to lose. Lazio are 4th, 4 points above 5th. Lazio will remain 4th or 5th and I believe European Club competition places.
  • Inter have little to gain.
  • I won't research this one.