Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a live chat webinar today at 14:00. German Bundesliga 2 is in its last throes. At least Bayer Leverkusen, or rather Bar stewards Leverkusen, are not playing today. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook, where the live chat webinar will be.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Newcastle v Sheffield Utd - 2.37 Sheffield United

  • Newcastle are 8 points clear of relegation, Sheffield United are threatening a top 5 spot.
  • Pre Covid, Newcastle failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • Newcastle were limited at home, scoring 1-1-0-1-0-0.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at home for Newcastle would be a sequence I'd be keen to see end. Sheff Utd kept Aston Villa to a 0-0 in the comeback match.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home for Newcastle.
  • v the top 12, Newcastle scored 2 goals only once, so their wins are likely to be 1-0.
  • 0-2 win v Sheff Utd last time these 2 met.
  • Since 8th December, only Man City (twice) and Liverpool beat Sheff Utd.
  • Since 8th December, Sheff Utd only conceded 2 goals v the top 2.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Angles? I would consider backing 0-0 pre match here to cash out as late as I dare, although Newcastle come into this match on a 2 match 0-0 home sequence.
  • Any Newcastle win is likely to be 1-0.Sheff Utd are tough to beat. Only the top 2 have beaten them since 8th December. Continue in that fashion and the Blades should not lose.

16:15 - Aston Villa v Chelsea - 1.5 Chelsea

  • Aston Villa have a real chance of survival, so tight is it at the bottom, but their inability to convert v Sheffield United mid week is likely to be punished by a better side in Chelsea.
  • Must win for both sides. Leicester have been in poor form so Chelsea will eye the win in order to get a bit closer to 3rd place.
  • Aston Villa have failed to score in 3 matches now.
  • 6/6 losses for Aston Villa v the top 4. 2-1 loss v Chelsea last time these 2 met.
  • Both teams did score.
  • Chelsea's last 4 defeats since 22nd December saw them fail to score. That's Villa's first task!
  • But...Chelsea scored 2-2-0-2-2-4 goals in their most recent matches.
  • v the bottom 4 away, Chelsea scored 2-2-3 goals.
  • Angles? A new improved Villa v Sheff Utd posted some excellent shots stats but if they cannot score, they won't win. Their improved defence too will be tested by a pre-Lockdown 2 goal-a-game Chelsea.
  • Defence v Attack. Instinct suggests Chelsea are too good. Villa may score but flatten out at a single goal.

19:00 - Everton v Liverpool - 1.6 Liverpool

  • Local derby so no research.
  • Noticeably, Everton's pre-lockdown losses came v 2nd, 4th and 9th, albeit away.
  • No defeat in 7 at home for Everton under Ancelloti.
  • 5-2 loss v Liverpool and all defeats v top 3 this season.
  • Only loss for Liverpool came away v 17th.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:00 - Cardiff v Leeds - 1.67 Leeds

Cardiff - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches came last match.
  • Only 1 win in 8 matches at home.
  • 2-1-2-0-2 goals scored at home recently.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home and only 2 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 11. Beat 2nd 2-1. Drew 3-3 with Leeds earlier this season.

Leeds - 1st

  • 5 consecutive wins, 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Draw, Win, Win, away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, and only 1 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 13.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 matches away v the top 8.
  • 22 of 30 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leeds have consistently had trouble scoring 2 goals v the top half of the table away. They did it only once so prepare for a possible goal-shy away side.
  • Cardiff have only 1 home win v the top 11 but Leeds have only 1 away win v the top 13. Not enticing form for either side.

SPANISH PRIMEIRA LIGA

13:00 - Celta Vigo v Alaves - 1.91 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - 17th

  • Relegation threatened.
  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches.
  • 4 draws, 2 wins and a loss last 8 matches at home.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home and only 2 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower. Scored and conceded 2 goals only once in those matches.
  • 2-0 loss to Alaves earlier this season.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Alaves - 12th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches came away.
  • 0-1-1-1-0-1-0 goals scored away recently.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away and none at fulltime.
  • Opponents have scored first in 10/14 away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins v 11th and 16th.
  • 2-0 win v Celta Vigo.
  • 9/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Celta must be respected. Another relegation threatened side putting together a solid run. Only 2 losses in 11, were 1-0. So I'd expect, if Celta lose, it will be a 0-1.
  • Alaves have had trouble scoring that 2nd goal so are layable if leading, particularly with Celta's needs and the fact they are unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.

18:30 - Valencia v Osasuna - 1.91 Valencia

Valencia - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 15 at home, scoring in those 15 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 12/15 at home.
  • 3-1 loss v Osasuna earlier this season.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Osasuna - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches were 1-0 wins.
  • Scored last 5 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side away from home.
  • 13 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Valencia are solid at home....but a crowd-less home? If patterns continue, expect them to score at some point.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay the 0-0 2nd half.
  • I do not expect Osasuna to win based on form.

21:00 - Real Sociedad v Real Madrid - 1.78 Real Madrid

Real Sociedad - 6th

  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches came away from home.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches at home.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 11/14 at home.
  • Lost 3-1 away v Real earlier.
  • 93% over 1.5 goals at home.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • 2/2 wins since lockdown, scoring 3 goals.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats pre-lockdown.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away and only 2 at fulltime.
  • More vulnerable away. Unbeaten home and away though v top 10.

Conclusions

  • Sociedad have yet beaten a top 3 side. Sociedad have scored last 14 at home so may score today but may not win if scoring.
  • Real Madrid are unbeaten home and away v the top 10.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:30 - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.32 Atalanta

Atalanta - 4th

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 12 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 13.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 and last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-4 win v Sassuolo earlier.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Sassuolo - 11th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 18 came v 8th 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo's away form is there for all to see. They should lose to a top 4 team today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Atalanta.

20:45 - Inter Milan v Sampdoria - 1.33 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 3rd

  • Only 3 defeats but 2 consecutive defeats away v Lazio and Juventus.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st.
  • 1-3 win v Samp earlier.

Sampdoria - 16th

  • Won their last away match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 2-5 goals conceded in 4 matches v the top 3.
  • All defeats bar a 0-0 away v the top 13.
  • 11 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Inter Milan win expected. Only the top 3 have beaten them this season. Samp lost all away, bar a 0-0, v the top 13.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

21:00 - Gil Vicente v Aves - 1.57 Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente - 11th

  • A draw and 3 losses last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 1-2 win v Aves earlier this season.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Aves - 18th

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away 2-0 defeats.
  • Conceded last 13 away matches.
  • Only away win v 15th (did the double).
  • 18 of 30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Aves are relegated. 14 points only. They have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Gil Vicente are unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

AUSTRIAN BUNDESLIGA

16:00 - Rapid Vienna v Hartberg - 1.4 Rapid Vienna

  • Since the comeback, 2 consecutive away wins for Hartberg. They lost their 3 home matches. 0-1 v Rapid Vienna most recently.
  • A loss v Red Bull Salzburg and 4 consecutive wins for Rapid Vienna since football's return. 4-2 goals scored at home.
  • We expect the home win with form franked as recently as a match ago.

16:00 - Salzburg v Wolfsberger - 1.22 Salzburg

  • Win, Win, Win, Win....draw 0-0 v Wolf last match since comeback. 2-2-3 goals scored at home. Wolf kept free-scoring Salzburg out but the market is emphatic that this will not be repeated today.
  • Which way do you think this will end? 2+ goals from Red Bull at home, or another Wolf shut out. It must be said that the Wolf offered little in attack with home advantage.

18:30 - Sturm Graz v LASK Linz - 1.73 LASK

  • Like all of these Austrian matches, these teams met last match. 4-0 home wins for LASK Linz who ended a really poor post-lockdown run Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss.
  • Sturm Graz have been just as bad post lockdown.
  • Do we take that emphatic win for LASK last match to heart?

BELARUS PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Belshina Bobruisk v BATE Borisov - 1.24 BATE

Belshina

  • Only win came last match.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws at home.
  • Only clean sheet last match.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • 3/4 goals conceded without a goal scored v the top 3.

BATE

  • 2 consecutive Desmond 2-2's.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches away.
  • No defeat in 11.
  • Scored last 7 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • I expect BATE to score 3+ goals today in what is likely to be a win to nil.

16:00 - Vitebsk v Minsk - 2.15 Vitebsk

Vitebsk - 11th

  • 5 draws and a win last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • No win in 4 at home.
  • 3 1-0 wins and a 1-1 v 12th and lower.

FC Minsk - 14th

  • Only 2 wins since 5th April.
  • A win and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 6 away matches.
  • v 10th and lower away, Win, Draw, Loss, Win.

Conclusions

  • If Vitebsk are to win, it could be a 1-0 which allows me to lay them if they score first and back FC Minsk +1 (or any of the variants).

18:00 - Sh. Soligorsk v Rukh Brest - 1.24 Shakhter

Shakhter - 2nd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 10 clean sheets this season.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets at home.
  • All clean sheets v 10th and lower.

Ruh Brest

  • 2 consecutive defeats at home but 4 draws and a win last 5 away.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Lost their 2 matches v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Shakhter are likely to keep Ruh Brest to a goal maximum. Expect the home win to nil.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

14:30 - 2 matches remain


Bochum v Greuther Furth - 2.2 Bochum

  • Bochum can only really effectively move up 1 place if winning their remaining 2 matches.
  • Ditto Greuther Furth. This looks like a dead rubber for me.

FC Heidenheim v Hamburger SV - 2.32 Hamburger

  • 4th v 3rd.
  • Plenty for these 2 to play for. How about automatic promotion!!

FC Heidenheim - 4th

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 2/2 draws v the top 2 at home.
  • 0-1 win v Hamburg earlier this season.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 20/30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hamburg - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v 2nd.
  • 1-1, 3-2 loss, 2-2 away v the top 5.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • Must win for both sides with automatic promotion the goal. Both sides struggle v the top sides. Both teams have scored in Hamburg's 3 away matches v the top 5.
  • I would look to 2nd half goals, based on Heidenheim, if a quiet first half.

SV Darmstadt v Wehen Wiesbaden - 2.24 Darmstadt

  • 5th v 17th.
  • I don't think there is anything for Darmstadt to work for here. They are 6 points and negative 10 goals behind 4th place.
  • This is simply a must win for Wehen Wiesbaden, but they must hope that Osnabruck and Nurnberg lose.

SV Sandhausen v Dynamo Dresden - 1.69 SV Sandhausen

  • 12th v 18th. Dynamo Dresden are relegated. Or are they? 16th I think goes into a relegation play-off with a Bundesliga 3 side so I suppose there is something for Dynamo Dresden. Top 10 is the carrot for Sandhausen.

Nurnberg v Stuttgart - 2.26 Stuttgart

  • 15th v 2nd. Both sides need points for different reasons.

Nurnberg - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came away.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 6 home or away.
  • 5-4 goals conceded at home v the top 3.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side at home.
  • 3-1 loss earlier this season.

Stuttgart - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches came last away match.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away and only once at fulltime.
  • Only 4 away wins.
  • 15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 16 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Points required. Stuttgart will hope that the head to head result sees them with a chance today but their away form is woeful. That said, Nurnberg have conceded 9 goals in 2 matches v the top 3. Dodgy away form or dodgy home form. Which do you trust the most?

Karlsruhe v Arminia Bielefeld - 2.24 Karsruhe

  • 16th v 1st.
  • Arminia Bielefeld are Champions and could be drunk in charge of a football.
  • Must win for Karlsruhe here in the relegation zone. Were this a must win for Arminia, they would be clear favourites.

VFL Osnabruck v Holstein Kiel - 2.34 VFL Osnabruck

  • 14th v 9th here. Osnabruck must win in order to keep the gap to the bottom 3.
  • I cannot see any real motivating factor for Holstein Kiel.

Erzgebirge v Hannover - 2.12 Hannover

  • 11th v 7th.
  • These 2 are not threatened by relegation and cannot get into a play-off place for promotion.

St Pauli v Jahn Regensburg - 2.2 St Pauli

  • 13th v 10th. St Pauli's survival will be complete with a win today. Karslruhe can catch them if Karslruhe win their remaining 2 matches and St Pauli lose their remaining 2 matches.
  • Mid table mediocrity for Jahn Regensburg. St Pauli will be hoping Jahn just go through the motions today.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

13:30 - Malmo FF v Varbergs BoIS - 1.39 Malmo

  • 2nd last season v newly promoted. Malmo have already beaten a newly promoted side. I expect a home win.

13:30 - Norrkoping v Djurgardens - 2.1 Norrkoping

  • 5th v 1st from last season.
  • 2-2 and 1-1 in head to heads last season.
  • Norrkoping were actually unbeaten at home v the top 6 last season.
  • Djurgardens last season away failed to beat 2nd, 3rd, 4th.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Norrkoping this season. Win and loss for Djurgardens this season.

13:30 - Falkenbergs v Kalmar FF - 2.32 Kalmar FF

  • 13th v 14th from last season. 2 strugglers. 0-0 and 2-3 Falk win in head to heads last season.
  • Faleknbergs at home last season were unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • 2 of Kalmar's 3 wins away came v 12th and lower.
  • Draw, win for Falkenbergs this season, scoring 1 goal maximum.
  • Loss, Win for Kalmar this season.

16:30 - Orebro v Ostersunds FK - 1.88 Orebro

  • 9th v 12th from last season.
  • 2-0 win and 1-3 win for Orebro in head to heads last season.
  • Orebro were unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
  • Ostersunds only beat bottom side away last season.
  • Loss, Win for Orebro this season. 2 consecutive 2-0 losses for Ostersunds.

16:30 - Hammarby v AIK - 1.85 Hammarby

  • 3rd v 4th from last season.
  • 2-1 win and 2-0 loss Hammarby in head to heads last season.
  • Hammarby were unbeaten at home last season.
  • AIK failed to beat 2nd, 3rd and 5th away last season.
  • 2-0 win and 2-2 in Hammarby's matches this season.
  • Win, Loss for AIK this season.