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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 21, 2015

Review of yesterday's matches.

BSV won 2-0 and it was 2-0 at halftime. Accurate research. Sandefjord's match ended 0-0. So Both teams to score was a no-go. Another 0-0 Molde v Valeranga when the stats strongly favoured goals. These pesky lower leagues. Germany U21 won 3-0 and were the form side, as per the research. No real DRT's here though. Uruguay v Paraguay was spot on. I went 1-1 pre-match. 1-1 it ended. Argentina at 1.05 was a joke. They won 0-1 with an 11th minute Higuan goal. A pity that Jamaica did not keep it 0-0 for longer.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Odds are taken from www.willhill.com

15:00 UK Sirius v Varberg - 1.73 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-3 Varberg and 2-0 Sirius in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 4th in the Swedish Superettan after 13 matches.

Sirius

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 matches v top 9, home and away - 8 of those matches were draws, 3 were 0-0.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Varberg

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • No win in their last 4 away sees 3 draws.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Sirius are vulnerable to the draw playing better sides, albeit after only 13 matches. I would therefore consider laying Sirius if they score first. 6 clean sheets in 8 for Varberg suggests I side against the market today.
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15:00 UK Cruzeiro v Chapecoense - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • 4-2 Cruzeiro, 1-1 draw in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 12th in the Brasilian Seria A table.

Cruzeiro

  • The season is only 7 matches old.
  • Only 1 draw in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins. 2 wins were 1-3 and came away from home.
  • 0-1, 1-1, 1-0 at home
  • Only 1 clean sheet
  • No first half goals yet at home.

Chapecoense

  • No draw in 7 matches.
  • No draw this season
  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses out of 4 were 1-0 losses.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • 3 wins came at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A bit too early in the season for any strong patterns.
  • Will Chapecoense continue to avoid draws? If so, lay any late draws.
  • Cruzeiro home matches, albeit 3, have been extremely tight.
  • Just the lay the draw angle for me then.
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17:00 UK Stromsgodset v Tromso - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive Strom wins in home head to heads. This match tends to favour the home side.
  • This is 8th v 14th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Stromsgodset

  • 2 match home winning streak
  • Scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches. 2 losses came away
  • 3 wins and 2 draws at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Have scored and conceded at home to teams below them in the league.

Tromso

  • No win in 4 away matches.
  • 4 losses, a win and a draw in 6 aways.
  • Since conceding 3-4-5 goals, Tromso have now conceded 1-2-1-0. They have improved defensively.
  • Only 2 wins this season.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Home team is favoured in head to heads. Tromso are vulnerable to heavy concessions away from home while scoring themselves so perhaps both teams will score today.
  • I would lay any team 2-0 /0-2 up and favour Stromsgodset today
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17:00 UK Haugesund v Mjondalen - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads since 2009.
  • This is 13th v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien. Mjondalen are my "Norwegian Hoffenheim'. I like their unpredictability, and the goals we see in their matches.

Haugesund

  • Only 3 wins this season.
  • Only 1 win in their last 6 matches.
  • 2 0-2 wins in their last 3 home matches.
  • A real mixed bag at home. Only 1 draw, wins v 8th and 16th .Losses v 1st, 6th and 12th without scoring.

Mjondalen

  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • No win in 5 away matches
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • Look at these recent total goals in matches - 4-5-1-7-5-6-3-6-2. Now you see why I like Mjondalen.
  • 3 consecutive draws away. 4 and 2 conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 halftime 0-0 in their last 8 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score seems obvious in Mjondalen matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Chance over 3.5 goals if the match is 0-0 for a while.
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17:00 UK Brann v Sogndal - 2.05 home

Standout Stats

  • Brann have won the last 2 head to heads, one a friendly.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Norwegian 1st division after 12 matches.

Brann

  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats this season came away
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Sogndal

  • Scored in their last 10
  • 6 match winning streak, 3 away
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Yet to play top 4 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It is interesting that William Hill have the home side as marginal favourites.
  • I think Sogndal will score today so that is a decent angle in, particularly if Brann score first. Note Brann tend to score and concede so they can be layed if scoring first.
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17:00 UK Bryne v Levanger - 1.61 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 11th in the Norwegian 1st Division.

Bryne

  • Have conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Home losses v current top 3.
  • Have scored 2 goals in all 5 matches played home and away v 8th and lower.

Levanger

  • Only 1 win away v 1st.
  • Conceded 3-4-2-5 2 in the losing away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Lay Levanger if they score first. They concede heavily. Bryne tend to score 2.
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17:00 UK Ranheim v Nest-Sotra - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 13th v 16th of 16 in the Norwegian 1st division

Ranheim

  • Conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Not played any bottom 7 sides at home.
  • 2 home defeats were 0-1.
  • 2 home wins in their last 3 home matches.

Nest-Sotra

  • No win in 6 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches. Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches. The only 2 exceptions saw wins to nil!
  • 3 away sides have led 3-0, 2-0, 2-0 - eventual scorelines 3-2, 2-2 and 2-1 so there should be some trading action at 2-0.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score looks an obvious call.
  • Lay Ranheim if they are 2-0 up . Nest have been battling back in recent matches away.
  • We'd have to oppose Nest-Sotra if they score first.
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17:00 UK Strommen v Follo - 1.71 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head was a 0-1 Follo friendly win.
  • This is 8th v 9th in the Norwegian 1st division.

Strommen

  • 3 match home winning streak.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 8 matches.
  • When scoring 2 at home, Strommen have always conceded.
  • Only loss at home v 2nd.

Follo

  • Scored in their last 6 away matches
  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3-3-0-2-2-2-1 conceded recently.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches v teams above them in the league.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 8th v 9th but it's Follo who have the leaky defence. Both teams could score today. I would particularly lay Follo if they scored first, given their recent concession record and the fact that they have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Follo have failed to score in only 1 match so that enhances the both teams to score idea.
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5pm - Sweden U21 v England U21 - 1.9 away

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is the UEFA U21 Championship.
  • 6 wins in their last 7 matches for Sweden u21 is good form. 5-2-3-4-0-4-2 scored in those matches.
  • 10 wins and a loss for England u21 in the last 11 matches. England u21 lost 0-1 to Portugal u21 and the market told us this was going to be a tight match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Yet again, we have 2 teams in good winning form in the UEFA u21 Championship. Sweden have scored plenty but at this level it is difficult to weigh up the form as compared with England u21.
  • I would favour England u21 today. I would lay Sweden u21 if they scored first
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18:00 UK Brazil Women v Australia Women - 1.61 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0 , 1-0, 2-1 Australia (friendly) . Brazil won the 2 1-0 wins.
  • Brazil women's campaign is built on defence. 2-0 v Korea, 1-0 v Spain and 0-1 v Costa Rica. 1-0 wins are precarious wins.
  • Australia lost 3-1 v USA, beat Nigeria 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Sweden.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would suggest that Brazil are only just winning. 1 goal v Korea was a penalty. They beat Costa Rica with an 83rd minute.
  • Australia have scored in all matches. Will they be able to score against Brazil.
  • I would lay Brazil very late on if they are trying to win 1-0 again. I'm talking 85th minute here. 1-0'ers tend to play not to lose and can be caught with their pants down!
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18:00 UK Las Palmas v Real Zaragoza - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Spanish Division 2 Play-off Final.
  • Zaragoza hold a 3-1 lead from the first leg, after Las Palmas scored first.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Do away goals count? If so, Las Palmas win with a 2-0 scoreline.
  • If Zaragoza score first, then Las Palmas will need 4 goals to go through.
  • I do expect goals, such is the need from Las Palmas so would lay the 0-0 halftime score here. Las Palmas will want to breakthrough before halftime.
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19:00 UK Sarpsborg Sparta v Rosenborg - 1.61 away

Standout Stats

  • 5 Rosenborg wins and a draw in the last 6 matches.
  • 1-2 and 1-1 in the last 2 matches at Sarpsborg.
  • This is 9th v 1st after 12 matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sarpsborg

  • 2 consecutive losses at home.
  • Only 1 win in the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Loss at home 0-1 v 2nd, 1-1 draw v 3rd and are playing 1st today.
  • No 0-0.

Rosenborg

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • No draw in 6 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 6 of the last 8 matches have been " one-goal-in-it"  meaning in order to win, Rosenborg have to score one more.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • All bar 2 matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Last 2 matches were 0-0 at halftime, the only 2 all season.
  • 5 wins and a 2-3 v Mjondalen (Rosenborg were 2-0 up) away.
  • Equal spread of goals scored in both halves away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Rosenborg tend not to lose head to heads. We get the feeling both teams to score could come up yet again for Rosenborg who will then do their patented score one more than you.
  • Over 2.5 goals pops up a lot.
  • If Sarpsborg score first, lay them. If Rosenborg lead 0-2, speculatively lay them in the hope the both teams to score comes in.
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20:00 UK Colombia v Peru - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Colombia in head to head back in 2013. This is the Copa America.
  • Colombia lost 0-1 to Peru and beat Brazil 0-1. A superb result.
  • Peru beat Venezuela 4-1 and lost 2-1 to Brazil.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Limited form to go by. Colombia tend to rely on defence and try to nick a goal. They were superb in keeping an over-hyped Brazil quiet. That's the first Brazil defeat in a long while, albeit mostly friendly.
  • I would lay Peru if they scored first in a match in which I cannot get too many angles in.
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20:00 UK Sao Paulo v Avai - 1.36 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads since 2011
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Brasilian Seria A after 7 matches.

Sao Paulo

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 home wins, 2-3-3-2 scored.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 in the last 6 at halftime.
  • 7 of 10 goals at home scored 2nd half.

Avai

  • 2 match winning streak away.
  • Scored in their last 5 matches.
  • 1-0 loss away and 2 wins 1-2, and 0-1
  • Only 2 losses this season.
  • Only played one team above them in the league, losing 1-4 at home to current 6th (questionable form as only 7 matches played).

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Only 7 matches played so not strong patterns. Sao Paulo look strong at home and could score 2+ goals again. I would be laying Avai if they score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score, delay, in the hope Sao Paulo can make a breakthrough before halftime.
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21:00 UK France Women v South Korea Women - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • France women beat England 1-0, lost at odds of 1.12 to Colombia 0-2, and beat Mexico 0-5.
  • In 2015, Korea lost 2-0 v Brazil, drew 2-2 v Costa Rica, and beat Spain 2-1.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • On form, I think the French should score at least 2 goals. The French had a hiccup v Colombia when at odds of 1.12. Their win v Mexico - did that banish this Colombia defeat to the archives? This is a match I would play via in-play stats to see in what mood the French are in.
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22:30 UK Brazil v Venezuela - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads, albeit from 2009 and 2011.
  • This is the Copa America.
  • A 0-0 with Venezuela in 2011's Copa America.
  • Brazil beat Peru 2-1 and lost 0-1 to Colombia.
  • Venezuela beat Colombia 0-1 and lost 1-0 to Peru.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Mixed signals from the collateral form. Colombia beat Brazil but lost to Venezuela. Peru lost to Brazil but beat Venezuela.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals. I would back 0-0 pre match as the odds should be big and hope that Brazil struggle against Venezuela again.