Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

13:30 live chat webinar today. It will be a slow day so it is an opportunity for you to ask questions during the live chat. Some good trading opportunities yesterday at the times I had a chance to check the mobile phone.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8418405678797335307 is the link for today's live chat webinar. Please register to attend.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Everton v Manchester United - 2.36 Man Utd

Everton (9th)

  • 3 wins and a shock loss to Fulham last match.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home, over Chelsea and Arsenal suggests Man Utd, post Champions League, will have to remain alert today. Clean sheet wins too.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime (41%).
  • Those recent wins at home v 4th and 5th were the first wins this season v the top 11. 2-1 loss to Man Utd earlier this season.

Man Utd (6th)

  • 2 consecutive away defeats v Arsenal and Wolves the first defeat of St. Ole's career.
  • Prior to conceding 2 goals twice (coincidentally around Champions League matches), United under Ole had been defensively strong away - 1-0-0-0-0-1 then 2-2 goals conceded.

Conclusions

  • Muddling match. Man Utd's 2 slip ups away, the first time they lost and conceded 2 goals away, came during Champions League matches. A coincidence? Now the Barcelona tie is over, will we see United revert to their usual  concede 1 max, away from home?
  • Everton have cleaned it up defensively. 5 clean sheets in 7 but then Fulham come along and score 2 goals against them. Fulham kept Everton to a single shot on goal for the majority of that match - something for United to replicate?
  • We have an Everton side suddenly beating top 5 at home, without conceding, playing a Man Utd side suddenly conceding 2 and losing away. Are these blips or a sign of a turnaround in fortunes for both sides?

16:00 - Arsenal v Crystal Palace - 1.55 Arsenal

  • London Derby so note that.
  • 4th v 13th.
  • Palace are 11 points shy on the relegation zone so have one foot in the Premier League. A win should assure it today. Even a draw could do it.
  • They meet an Arsenal team electric at home, winning their last 10, scoring 2+ goals in their last 8 at home and scoring in their last 16 at home.
  • Arsenal have only lost to Man City at home this season. 2-2 the last time these 2 met was a very tradable match.
  • Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 home matches v 3rd and lower.
  • Palace have been inconsistent of late - WLWLWLWL (W-win, L-Loss).
  • 3 wins in 4 away for Palace.
  • They have only failed to score once this year.
  • 76% of halftime scorelines away for Palace were 0-1 or 0-0. It would be very nice of Palace to lead 0-1 at halftime today!!
  • 4-3, 2-3, 2-0, 3-1 away v the top 5 for Palace this season. Consistently conceding 2 goals.
  • 20 of 26 Palace goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Arsenal at home are formidable but meet a Palace side needing a draw I think to secure Premiership status. 2 goals seems to pervade the form though and we'd expect 2+ goals of Arsenal (if no Europa League hangover) and that should result in the win. Palace are hitting away form but as I say, concede 2+ v top 5 away - they beat City but that looks anomolous. We can only hope Palace lead at halftime, as they have in 7 matches this season away as I would certainly still favour Arsenal.

16:00 - Cardiff v Liverpool - 1.23 Liverpool

  • Research done before the midweek Brighton and Cardiff result is known.
  • 6 losses in 7 for Cardiff. 5 consecutive wins for Liverpool.
  • Liverpool scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 13 for Liverpool and in 6 away. 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 100% defeats for Cardiff v the top 6, conceding between 2-5 goals in each match.
  • 100% wins for Liverpool v 12th and lower home and away, a couple of 0-1 wins v 17th and 20th.
  • The Brighton Cardiff result will relay the urgency Cardiff have. They would still be bottom 3 regardless of the midweek result. Must wins for both sides and clearly on form, Liverpool should score 2/3/4+ goals and win with ease. But then Frosinone should have lost to Fiorentina, Napoli should have beaten Empoli and Everton should have beaten Fulham! I cannot realistically see a shock result though, unless Liverpool have the post-Champions League blues.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Freiburg v Dortmund - 1.56 Dortmund

Freiburg (13th)

  • 11 points clear of relegation with 5 matches (15 points max) remaining. Freiburg are edging closer to mathematical certainty survival.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home and scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (14%).
  • 2-0 loss to Dortmund earlier this season. 2 1-1 draws v Bayern.
  • Did beat 3rd and 5th at home.

Dortmund ( 2nd)

  • 2 losses in 3 away.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came in the first half.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg should not worry about relegation. Dortmund should worry about not getting 3 points. They are a point behind Bayern for the title chase.
  • Only 5 clean sheets for Freiburg should give Dortmund a goal scoring chance or two. I would lay Freiburg if they score first - strong scoring and conceding record at home of late.
  • We should enter this expecting a Dortmund win but they have conceded in their last 3 away - 2+ goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Hertha Berlin v Hannover - 1.56 Hertha

Hertha (11th)

  • 5 consecutive losses.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • And favourites today.....
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home. Conceded last 7 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower, scoring 2-1-2-2-1.
  • Beat Hannover 0-2 earlier this season.
  • 16 of 22 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Hannover

  • 12 losses in 13.
  • Relegated.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 14 away.

Conclusions

  • A case of redemption for Hertha. 5 consecutive defeats should end today not because Hertha are in any sort of form, but because Hannover are consistently bad, conceding 2+ goals.
  • Expect 2+ goals from Hertha if at their best.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Levante v Espanyol - 2.32 Levante

  • No win in 8 for Levante who are in the relegation fight, 5th bottom.
  • 2 consecutive home 2-2 scorelines.
  • No win in 5 at home, Levante have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 at home.
  • They have conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Bitty home form. Have beaten 7th, 8th, 12th and 18th but also lost to 15th and 17th. Which Levante turns up today?
  • A 1-1 and 2 consecutive 2-1 wins for Espanyol.
  • That was their first away win since 26th October 2018.
  • They have conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • They are unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower albeit 4 away score draws.
  • 1-0 win over Levante earlier this season.
  • 19 of 25 goals conceded by Espanyol away came 2nd half.
  • For me this could be another score draw, or is that too simplistic? If so, then lay any side leading!
  • Do note that the need is greater for Levante. Both sides have conceded in their last 8 matches so should help the score draw along.

13:00 - Getafe v Sevilla - 2.42 Sevilla

  • You know my view on these odds by now. Just a cursory look.
  • Since 10th November only 4 teams have beaten Getafe, 2 of those were Real Madrid and Barcelona.
  • 5 wins in 6 at home for Getafe.
  • No draw in 13 at home for Getafe
  • Getafe have not played 3rd or 4th at home but v atop 4, 4 losses and a 0-2 win v Sevilla. Sevilla are 4th.
  • 5 wins in 6 for Sevilla ends really poor start to 2019. 2 consecutive away wins to nil.
  • Sevilla have not beaten the top 10 away.
  • 19 goals scored and conceded last 15 minutes of Sevilla away matches.
  • As ever, a muddling match. Both sides tend to struggle v top sides with Getafe though beating Sevilla last time they met. Sevilla yet to beat top 10 away - Getafe are 5th.
  • In-play stats for me. Note the late goals scored and conceded Sevilla if 0-0 75th minute.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao - 1.48 Real Madrid

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses in 14 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 2nd place within grasp but it looks like goodbye to the title.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • No draw in 12 at home.
  • Cluster of wins at home v 4th-8th were 2+ goal wins to nil. Play 7th today. Have lost sporadically at home though.
  • 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ath Bilbao (7th)

  • 4 wins in 5.
  • 2 losses in 3 without scoring.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid have been spluttering this season and lack a strong reliability factor for me. But they are 3/3 last home matches in wins and v 4th-8th at home this season won to nil. They play a team 7th who are yet to beat the top 13 so, logically (and logic and Real Madrid don't normally go together) Ath Bilbao should not win.

17:30 - Villareal v Leganes - 1.86 Villareal

Villareal (15th)

  • Only 3 wins in 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 3 home wins v 4th, 9th, and 19th. Both teams scored in 9/11 matches at home v the top 11, and only 2 wins.
  • 18 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leganes (12th)

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (50%).
  • Only 1 win away v top 17 - failed to score v 9th-17th away.
  • 17 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • An argument for backing 0-0 pre match a) 50% 0-0 at halftime both sides, b) Leganes failure to score away v 9th-17th.
  • Villareal are likely to score - they have in their last 12 at home but only 3 wins is a worry. Eventually, both teams may score given Villareal have 9/11 BTTS payouts v top 11.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, remember these potential angles.

19:45 - Real Betis v Valencia - 2.5 Valencia

Betis (9th)

  • Only 3 wins in 10 for Betis.
  • They have scored and conceded last 5 matches and scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • Mixed bag at home v top 8.
  • Loss, win, loss, win, loss v top 5. Wins were 1-0.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home v the top 13.
  • 15 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Valencia (6th)

  • Only 2 defeats sine 8th December 2018.
  • 5 wins in the last 7 matches sees those blessed draws end.
  • Lost their last away match, maybe down to Europa League distractions.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v the top 10, did have 3 0-1 wins v 4th, 5th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • 2.5 suggests the market cannot solve this match.
  • We see 2 teams with sporadic form v the top 10. Both sides failing to score 2 goals frequently enough and thus, when winning, it's 1-0/0-1.
  • You might want to back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match in the hope this is a spluttering attack from both sides.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Excelsior v Willem II - 2.05 Willem II

Excelsior (17th)

  • Still relegation threatened. 4 matches remain.
  • 7 consecutive losses.
  • 3 home wins then 3 home losses.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • Only 2 wins home and away v the top 12, saw wins v 3rd and 7th at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches v the top 12 at home.
  • 24 of 33 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Willem II (8th)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins, 3 losses then 2 wins in recent away matches.
  • Last time I researched Willem II I told you that they tend to see 1/2 goals total before halftime recently. They did score before halftime last match.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 4 away. Conceded 2+ goals last 5 away.
  • 4-2-1-2 goals conceded away v bottom 5.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market while Willem II continue their pattern.
  • Both teams could score and for me, Willem II outsicer Excelsior. Do note the in-play stats. They were stonking for Willem II in their last match so watch out.
  • Excelsior are one of those desperate teams but on form, they are likely to concede 2 goals.

13:30 - Fortuna Sittard v NAC Breda - 2.1 Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 came at home.
  • A win and 2 draws at home.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th and lower.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 15th and lower 3-1 or 4-1.
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

NAC Breda (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches came away recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 6 losses and a win in recent away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 7 away.
  • Only 1 win away came v 17th.
  • 9 goals scored, 40 conceded away. Defensive coaches look away now!

Conclusions

  • Both sides are dire defensively so this should not end 0-0. Only 1 win in 9 plays only 1 win in 13 so these 2 won't be winning any prizes.
  • When it comes down to the Challenge Table though, it is difficult to ignore Sittard's unbeaten home record v 5th and lower as well as their 3 or 4-1 wins c 15th and lower.
  • On seasonal form we would have to be with a woefully out of form home side who meet lower opponents who, remember, need points! NAC Breda must win today to stay alive.

15:45 - PSV Eindhoven v Den Haag - 1.1 PSV

  • ADO look safe from relegation and little to gain as the season ends (4 matches remaining).
  • PSV are on identical points to Ajax in 2nd. They will be ultra motivated.
  • PSV have been a great trading side of late.They went behind to De Graafschap and went on to win. Vitesse led 3 times against PSV and still could not win. PSV equalised when Ajax scored first. You get the idea.
  • 1.1 odds also suggests a goal before halftime. If 0-0 at 20 minutes, consider backing 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Hibernian v Celtic - 1.5 Celtic

  • Hibs last loss was a 2-0 v Celtic. Since then, 7 wins and 2 draws, one against Rangers
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • Celtic are more vulnerable away from home, with losses against 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th. Yes, Hibs have beaten and lost to Celtic this season.
  • 11 wins and 2 0-0 draws for Celtic in recent matches.
  • 5 consecutive away wins is eyecatching for Celtic.
  • So, clearly Celtic are more vulnerable away but which Hibs turns up today? The one winning 2-0 v Celtic or the one losing 2-0 v Celtic in their last loss.
  • In-play stats will determine the health of Hibs.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Nantes v Amiens - 1.95 Nantes

Nantes (14th)

  • 3 losses and then 2 wins in the last 5 matches.
  • 2-3, 2-1, 3-2 in recent home matches. Beat PSG last home match.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • Not played 17th or 18th at home but beat 19th 5-0 and drew 1-1 with 20th. 1-2 win v Amiens last match.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Amiens (17th)

  • 5 draws in 6 matches. 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches.
  • 2-2, 0-0, 0-0 last 3 away matches.
  • No win in the last 7 away.
  • No defeat in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss v 12th and lower. 0-1-0-0-1-1 goals scored and 0-1-1-0-2-0 goals conceded.

Conclusions

  • On very recent form, Nantes are full of goals and could simply outscore Amiens if Amiens continue to score 0-1-0-0-1-1 v 12th and lower away.
  • Amiens are in unbeaten recent form and are 7 points clear of the relegation zone. They may want to extend that gap so remember when teams are desperate they may play above themselves.

14:00 - Toulouse v Lille - 2.2 Lille

Toulouse (15th)

  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss (0-1 v PSG), Win recent home form solid enough.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team at home.
  • Beat Lille 1-2 earlier this season.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lille (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss this year.
  • Recent home spanking of PSG.
  • No defeat in 9 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 14th and lower.
  • 3-0-3-2-2-3 goals scored in those matches.
  • 15 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I think Lille look well placed here to get a result. Consistently unbeaten v 14th and lower away, consistently scoring 2/3 goals. If this continues, Toulouse are layable if leading. If Lille are to concede it tends to be second half. Fancy them to lead at halftime? 0-1, 0-2?

16:00 - Reims v St Etienne - 2.6 Reims


20:00 - PSG v Monaco - 1.56 PSG

PSG (1st)

  • 17 points ahead with 18 available points remaining this season.
  • A win sees PSG Champions and a draw is likely to do same based on goal difference.
  • A draw and 2 losses in the last 3 matches suggests PSG have switched off.
  • 2-2, 5-1, 3-2 last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 16 at home though.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower at home.
  • 0-4 win over Monaco this season.

Monaco (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 13 was a recent 0-1 away v Lille.
  • 13 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • What on earth do we make of PSG's recent form. What in injury list - Neymar, Cavani, Di Maria, Silva, Marquinihos, Meunier! Is that the cause of recent woes? I note in those winless matches PSG Still scored 2-1-2 goals.
  • Remember a win secures the title today and on seasonal form at home, PSG tend to be imperious, albeit during large sections of the of the league with the above-named absentees.
  • Note Monaco's strong bias towards 2nd half scoring.