Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I will telegram throughout the day and see you for a live chat webinar at 13:45 to give the 13:30 matches time to breathe, although Ajax will likely have scored a shed load in the intervening 15 minutes. Let's not be as presumptuous about newly promoted sides away to big guns (Leipzig v Koln yesterday and Inter Milan v Spezia today!). Damage limitation had we used the D from Delay React Trade yesterday!! I will do a couple of spreadsheets today. I couldn't do them yesterday as I was spending the time trying to fix the Facebook live video.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Brighton v Sheffield Utd - 1.73 Brighton

Brighton - 16th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • No home win.
  • Scored and conceded last 2 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 3/3 draws v 17th and lower, 2 were 0-0.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sheffield United - 20th

  • All defeats bar a 1-1 draw.
  • 7 consecutive defeats, 6 away.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 6 away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Brighton have 3 draws v 17th and lower which might be a way in for Sheffield United, 2 0-0 draws and a 1-1.
  • Sheffield United are most vulnerable last half hour of away matches. If leading, they may be layable 60th+ minute.

14:15 - Tottenham v Leicester - 2.05 Tottenham

Tottenham - 2nd

  • Only defeats 1st and last matches against the 2 Merseyside teams.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 5/6 home matches.
  • The 2 defeats have come v top 5 sides.
  • All 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Leicester - 4th

  • No draw.
  • All wins away bar a loss v Liverpool.
  • 3 defeats without scoring v the top 7, 2 came at home.
  • 11/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both sides falter v the top 5 but for me, Leicester more consistently so.
  • If Tottenham concede, it tends to be 2nd half.
  • Watch out for Leicester last 15 minutes if the lead is slender, 1-0 say. I do favour Tottenham here based on that Leicester inability to score v the top 7 so far...

16:30 - Man Utd v Leeds - 1.67 Man Utd

Man Utd - 6th

  • Bring your shin pads. This could get tasty!
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win, Draw at home.
  • 1-1-0-0-1-0 goals scored at home. Can't stop scoring 3 goals away.
  • Only 1 home win came v 19th.

Leeds - 13th

  • When they get it right, they win 5-2 as they did v Newcastle. All of those shots off target turning into shots on target and goals.
  • 2 losses and then that win v Newcastle latest.
  • Scored in 7 of their last 8 and really should have scored v Arsenal, having hit the woodwork several times.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • All defeats have come v the top 12.

Conclusions

  • If Man Utd cannot score that 2nd goal at home today, they are likely to be punished. But if they can channel their away scoring (3 goals minimum), they should outscore a Leeds side tending to lose when meeting the top 12.
  • If United are leading 1-0 late on, lay them given that poor scoring record at home.
  • This could be fun!

19:15 - West Brom v Aston Villa - 1.95 Aston Villa

  • New manager syndrome for West Brom - Sam Allardyce could spell a change in tack and form lines under the previous manager may not be seen today. So it must be a watching brief.
  • Aston Villa did everything bar score v Burnley latest. Utterly dominant in all stats areas.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Celta Vigo v Alaves - 1.70 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo - 9th

  • 3 consecutive wins, the last 2 were to nil.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 13th and lower at home.

Alaves - 15th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came last match.
  • Not played 8th-16th away.

Conclusions

  • Messy form lines here. I will leave this to the in-play stats. Although I must say the market got it spot on with Celta Vigo last match so take the hint? They are on a good winning run.

20:00 - Eibar v Real Madrid - 1.55 Real Madrid

Eibar - 11th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 4 draws in their last 5 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw at home, failing to score. So, 3 0-0's in 4 at home.
  • Failed to score last 5 at home.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played the top 7 at home.
  • All 4 goals conceded first half came in the last 15 minutes.

Real Madrid - 3rd

  • What a quick turnaround in form. 3 consecutive wins, 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 away loss.

Conclusions

  • I expect the Real Madrid revival to continue but clearly Eibar are very defensive so Real may need to be patient. 0-0 might be in play if you want to back it pre-match.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:00 - Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - 2.25 Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg - 5th

  • Unbeaten run ended by Bayern Munich, and after taking the lead.
  • 2 draws and 4 consecutive wins at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches.
  • Scored last 9 matches.
  • All wins have come v 10th and lower.
  • 5 goals scored at home 15th-30th minute.

Stuttgart - 7th

  • Unbeaten away.
  • Only 2 losses came at home, one v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v the top 11.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are having a solid season. Both have been beaten by Bayern Munich but few else.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both teams to score must have a chance here but I cannot pick the winner. Stuttgart are surprising, and the best performing newly promoted side.

14:00 - Benevento v Genoa - 2.25 Benevento

Benevento

  • Not scored that 2nd goal in 8 matches.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 home draws v the likes of Juventus and Lazio.
  • All losses bar 1 have come v the top 7.

Genoa

  • Only 1 win first match.
  • Led at both Juventus and Milan last 2 matches without winning.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • I think Benevento had better be a little careful. Genoa have led at the likes of Juventus and Milan last 2 matches and now meet a Benevento struggling to score that 2nd goal. Benevento themselves have 2 draws v big names. Their inability to score a 2nd goal may leave them vulnerable. Genoa did score 2 v Milan...

14:00 - Cagliari v Udinese - 2.15 Udinese

Cagliari - 12th

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • Scored last 4 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side but start winning v 11th and lower. Meet 10th today.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 match v 11th and lower.
  • 6 of 9 goals have been scored either side of halftime at home.
  • 4 goals conceded last 15 mins at home.

Udinese - 10th

  • Nice bit of recent form. 3 wins and a 0-0.
  • 1-3 and 2-3 wins away latest.
  • 1-3 away v 9th, 3-2 away v 17th and 2-3 away v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Form lines a little unclear as Cagliari win and score 2 goals v 11th and lower but lose v 9th and higher and meet...............10th today!
  • This is a Udinese in very decent recent form, 2 consecutive away wins scoring 3 goals. Even if Cagliari score 2 goals as we expect v 11th and lower, Udinese may respond so note that.

14:00 - Inter Milan v Spezia - 1.22 Inter Milan

Inter Milan

  • Only 1 loss came in the Milan derby.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3-2-4-4 goals scored at home v 13th and lower. 1-2-3-2 goals conceded though.
  • 11/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Spezia

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2-0 up last match and succumbed to 2 late goals.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Conceded 3/4 goals v the top 5 this season.
  • 9/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The form lines point to 3/4 goals from Inter Milan.
  • Spezia showed last match too that they were unable to hold on to a lead so remember that.
  • Strong second half scoring (Inter) and conceding (Spezia) trend if this match is uncharacteristically quiet first half.

14:00 - Sassuolo v AC Milan - 1.80 AC Milan

Sassuolo - 5th

  • Only 1 loss came v Inter Milan.
  • 0-0-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • Lost to 2nd and plays 1st today.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AC Milan - 1st

  • Love a bit of the Bishop. Desmond Tutu has come in the last 2 matches. 2-2.
  • Scored in every match. Scored 2 goals at least in every match.
  • 2-0 down and 2-1 down last 2 matches and those became 2-2.
  • 5 wins and a 2-2 away, conceding in all of those.
  • 5/6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Milan are a reliable trading side. Look at their last 2 matches.
  • Strong 2nd half goals patterns both sides.
  • Rely on Milan to come back from behind.
  • Look for team news. Increased confidence in Milan if Ibrahimovic returns up front.
  • Lay any late 2-2. Milan cannot keep collecting Desmond 2-2's.

17:00 - Atalanta v Roma - 2.20 Atalanta

  • No indepth research here given these 2 were clearly distracted by their European Club competition duties. Atalanta failed to score in 2 Seria A matches but since have managed a 3-0 win v Fiorentina (not a surprise) and a 1-1 v Juventus which impressed. They were lucky though not to lose. Ronaldo missed a penalty.
  • Roma similarly failed to score in 2 matches but since then, a 1-5 win v Bologna and 3-1 win v Torino (hugely impacted by an early Torino red card).
  • So arguably 2 sides on the improve but Atalanta are yet to enter my reliables list. So a watching brief today via the in-play stats.

19:45 - Lazio v Napoli - 2.15 Napoli

Lazio - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches and only 2 wins in 6 matches. Another side under performing, coinciding with their European Club competition matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/6 home matches and led at halftime in 5/6 home matches.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side. All defeats v 7th-11th.
  • All 7 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Napoli - 5th

  • No draw.
  • Only 4 defeats. Last defeat v Inter Milan was care of a Napoli red card.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.
  • Not played 4th-12th away.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Lazio don't yet beat top 11 sides and tend to lose. They have so far done all of their scoring 2nd half so remember that. As has Napoli away from home.
  • I would personally favour Napoli based on seasonal form. Only beaten by the top 6 this season.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Will Lazio continue to concede first in the first half?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

13:30 - Den Haag v Ajax - 1.08 Ajax

Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • Yet another side with the 1-1 habit - 3 consecutive matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home without winning.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-4 goals tend to be conceded v the top 6.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ajax - 1st

  • All wins bar 2 defeats. Recent home loss to Twente was Champions League distracted.
  • 7 clean sheets this season.
  • Failed to score only once, and that came in defeat.
  • 13-5-3-5-5-1-4 goals scored recently.
  • 5 goals at least scored v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Prayer mats out for Den Haag who could be on the end of a 5+ goal mauling.

15:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Willem-II - 1.33 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar - 7th

  • Only 1 loss came last home match, I think red carded.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Scored every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 v 12th and lower.
  • 4/5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Willem II - 16th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • No away win.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 100% defeats v the top 9.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely to be a trade here as AZ are all set to score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • We expect an AZ win today.