DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 20, 2023
I am not sure that Everton fans will tolerate Sean Dyche's 1-0 tactics as they inevitably fail when opponents score, as Aston Villa (Everton's next opponents) did v Newcastle. Dyche for the first manager to be sacked?
London derby sees West Ham (with Worzel Gummidge a.k.a. Harry Maguire) v Chelsea who impressed v Liverpool under new management.
Norwich have impressed minus Pukki and play Millwall today.
The Scottish League Cup continues.
A welcome to a more robust Sunday coupon, with the German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, Italian Seria A, Dutch Eredivisie and French Ligue 1, making a live chat webinar more enticing.
Porto represent the Big 4 in Portugal, and came from behind for a nice trade first match.
Good second-tier leagues in Germany, Italy, Spain and France fill the coupon.
BW Linz are newly promoted in the Austrian Bundesliga and may struggle. The Greeks and Turks are welcome, as is the sight of PAOK and Olympiakos, the latter particularly strong.
3/4 odds on favourites in Belgium. The odds in Denmark suggest a tough day there. Familiar names Legia Warsaw and Lech Poznan offer possible trades in Poland. 3/3 odds on favourites in Croatia and 3/4 odds on favourites in the Czech Republic are good foundations to work from.
https://football-trading-profits.mn.co/share/j49cOaSILI8eL3Kv?utm_source=manual is the link to today's chat which will go on throughout the day but take a break during the live chat webinar. It's an extension to the Telegram service, far more info, screenshots, in-play stats, and evidence to help you decide whether to play or not. Come along. We're in great form.
Finnish Veikkausliiga
12:00 - Inter Turku v HJK Helsinki - 2.15 HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
- No win in three at home conceded in the last five at home. 100%. Over 1.5 goals at home. Seven of eight goals conceded at home. Came second half. Only one win home and away against the top five this season.
HJK Helsinki
- Only two defeats all season, three consecutive wins started to score two plus goals in the last two matches. Scored and conceded in the last four away matches. No defeat in seven away. Eight of 12 goals conceded away have come second half. Seven of ten goals conceded away have come second half. Unbeaten away from home against third and lower in the league, but they have conceded and scored in seven away matches.
Conclusions
- This match comes after a Europa League match for HJK but with only 2 defeats all season we can infer that the Curse is not affecting them.
- Scoring 2 goals again is welcome for HJK and may be required for the win as they score and concede too readily away (without losing!).
- Inter concede mostly 2nd half so don't be surprised if they keep HJK quiet first half.
14:00 - Kuopio PS v Seinajoen - 2.00 KuPS
KuPS
- Top of the league. Two consecutive wins to nil. No draw in ten at home. Eight of 12 goals scored at home came first. Half one nil loss last head-to-head three out of four home defeats have been nil. One have lost at home against fifth, sixth, seventh and 12th. One goal in it matches at home against the top seven.
SJK - 3rd
- Three consecutive defeats scored and conceded in their last four away matches scored in the last ten matches. This market is now in play. Clean sheets away against second, fourth, sixth, eighth and 12th.
Conclusions
- This could be a tight 1-goal-in-it match for KuPS who, if losing, tend to lose 1-0 (opens the door up for an insurance play dependent on the timing of any first goal).
Norwegian Eliteserien
16:00 - Brann v Aalesund - 1.17 Brann
Brann - 5th
- No draw in seven lead at halftime in five of nine home matches. Seven wins and a nil-nil home and away against 10th and lower. One three win last head-to-head.
Aalesund - 16th
- Only three wins all season came at home. Eight consecutive away defeats, no draw in, 12 scored and conceded in the last four away matches. Opponents tend to score first, have never led at halftime away from home against the top nine away from home have conceded at least three goals.
Conclusions
- The research fits in perfectly with the odds quoted today. 1.17 suggests Brann will score at least three goals today. That's in keeping with Aalesund's poor record away against the top nine. It should be a comfortable home win today. Three nil. Three one. Any other home score? Possibility of a breakthrough before halftime for Brann.
16:00 - Ham-Kam v Rosenborg - 2.20 Rosenborg
Ham-Kam - 12th
- Two wins in the last three home matches. No draw in ten conceded in the last four home matches. Four Loss. Last head-to-head. I've not beaten a top-eight side home or away. Failed to score in four out of five home matches against the top seven. 67% of home goals have come second half.
Rosenborg - 8th
- Four consecutive wins, two consecutive away wins scored in the last five matches. Opponents have scored first in six out of eight away matches. Only one loss away against seventh and lower away from home.
Conclusions
- Rosenberg are far better at home than away. But Hamm comes. Home form against the top eight is so poor having trouble even scoring that. Rosenberg might get a result today. I don't like their increases potent away form, though. That's probably the reason behind the 2.20. The favorite quote today strong second half goals patterns for Hamkam. So do take note of that.
16:00 - Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt - 1.40 Bodo/Glimt
Haugesund - 11th
- Only one win in six. No. Draw in five at home. Scored in the last six at home. No opponent has led at half-time at home. All defeats against the top five, home and away to one defeat. Last head-to-head. Eight of ten goals conceded at home came second half.
Bodo - 1st
- Conference league football upcoming. All wins by a single defeat. Home and away against Sixth and lower No draw in nine away to plus goals scored in the last three away.
Conclusions
- A hope European football does not muddy Bodo's performance. Highly likely to win given their near 100% win record v 6th and lower.
- Lay any late draw.
- Haugesund could keep it quiet first half but concede 2nd.
16:00 - Tromso v Sandefjord - 1.44 Tromso
Tromso
- Three consecutive wins, only one defeat since the 29th of May, Two plus goals scored in the last three matches. No defeat in five at home. Nil nil. Last head-to-head. Have not played ninth to 13th at home, but only one loss at home against second and lower this season. Conceded two goals only once at home and that came against first in the league.
Sandefjord
- Two wins and a draw. Last three matches. Two-plus goals scored in the last five matches. Scored and conceded in the last five and the last four away. Five consecutive over two-and-a-half goal matches away from home. Opponents tend to score first, away from home and lead at halftime. 67%. Not beaten a top-12 side away from home. Not played the top three away from home yet, but have failed to beat them when they have home advantage. Six of nine goals scored away from home came second half.
Conclusions
- Tromso are top 3 and Sandefjord have failed to beat the top 3 with home advantage and cannot beat any top 12 side away from home. Must be with the home side here.
16:00 - Viking v Stabaek - 1.33 Viking
Viking
- Nine consecutive wins, four at home scored in the last 17 matches, two plus goals scored in the last six home matches have never led at halftime at home. Nil one win last head-to-head, six wins and a draw at home against fifth and lower. In those wins, they scored three goals at least in four of those matches. 67% over 3.5 goals at home to 22 of 27 goals scored at home have come second half, 18 of those have come after the hour.
Stabaek
- Four consecutive defeats? No win in six away matches. Opponents tend to score first. Have lost to the first and third away from home, playing second today. Have conceded two goals at least in all away matches against the top 12.
Conclusions
- As you'd expect with 2nd top playing 2nd bottom. Stabaek simply tend to concede 2+ goals v top 12 away and that's an invitation the Vikings, with their scoring 3+ goals consistently v 5th and lower at home, will be keen to embrace. Viking should fill their boots and with that in mind, expect a goal at least 2nd half.
18:15 - Stromsgodset v Lillestrom - 2.00 Lillestrom
Stroms - 10th
- Four losses and a win in the last five matches. Two consecutive home defeats. No draw in, eight at home conceded in the last six matches. Scored first in five out of eight home matches. Four three loss Last head-to-head. Sporadic home form. Beat first lose nil one to third. Beat seventh lose nil. One to ninth. Beat 13th lose one three to 14th. So it's very bitty form.
Lillestrom - 6th
- 3 losses in 4.
- Conceded last 10.
- All wins bar 1 have come v 8th and lower.
- Not conceded a 2nd goal away v 8th and lower.
- 9 goals in total last 15 mins.
Conclusions
- Unreadable teams like stroms can be untradable sides. Bitty form is not a strong foundation. Lillestrom will be hopeful. All bar 1 of their wins home and away have come v 8th and lower.
- Watch out for 75th+ minute action. Get yer drip-laying boots on.
Swedish Allsvenskan
14:00 - Hacken v Sirius - 1.40 Hacken
Hacken - 2nd
- Eight consecutive home wins scored in the last ten at home. Two plus goals scored in the last eight at home are involved in European competition next week. Scored first in seven out of ten at home. One-four win last head-to-head or wins by a single defeat. V eighth at home. No nil-nil at halftime at home.
Sirius - 12th
- No draw in 13. Not beating the top seven side home or away. Failed to score in three out of four away matches against the top six.
Conclusions
- An obvious home win beckons. 3 goals Hacken could aim for.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
14:00 - Malmo v Djurgarden - 1.67 Malmo
Malmo - 3rd
- 4 wins in 5 at home.
- Scored last 10 at home.
- 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
- 2-0 loss last head-to-head.
- 2-2 and 3-0 win at home to top 5.
Djurgarden - 4th
- Scored last 7 away.
- Far poorer away, only 2 wins v 6th and 11th - scored 2 goals only once away.
- 6 goals conceded away last 15 mins.
Conclusions
- Until Djurgarden show their home form away, they are opposable. Malmo hitting a bit of winning form at home and consistently score at home. Djurgarden have scored last 7 away but cannot find that 2nd goal, so insurance looks an option if they score first.
16:30 - Elfsborg v Mjallby - 1.33 Elfsborg
Elfsborg - 1st
- Only three defeats. Two of them came in the last two away, matches. No defeat in eight at home, scored in the last eight at home. No one win last head-to-head. Only home defeat came against second in the league. 16 of 21 goals scored at home came second half.
Mjallby - 6th
- Three consecutive away wins. No draw in six away. Two plus goals scored last three away. Nil one defeat last head to head, three nil defeat against second and fourth away from home. Only two wins home and away against the top ten came against third-place Malmo.
Conclusions
- Mjallby have done the double over Malmo but that's the only 2 wins home and away v the top 10, got to be with the Elf. Note the Elf do their scoring 2nd half mostly.
16:30 - Kalmar v Hammarby - 2.40 Hammarby
- 2.4 the favourite, leave this to the in-play stats.
Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen
14:00 - Asane v Bryne - 2.05 Asane
- Nothing indepth here. Only 2 wins all season Asane. Only 1 away win Bryne and an away side scoring 2 goals only once away.
- A side with only 2 wins as favourite...? W.T.F.
14:00 - Fredrikstad v Kristiansund - 1.95 Fred
Fred - 2nd
- Only one defeat came last match scored and conceded last four matches. Unbeaten in nine at home, scored in the last 12 - 0-1 win last head-to-head not conceded a second goal at home. Not conceded a first-half goal at home.
Kristiansund - 6th
- Only four defeats all season. No win in five away conceded last seven away. Not beaten a top ten side away from home. 11 of 14 goals conceded away came second half.
Conclusions
- Will Fred really lose 2 consecutive matches and their first home loss of the season? Especially with Kris with no win in 5 away and failing to beat a top 10 side away. I think you can answer that! Expect 2nd half goals if none first half.
14:00 - Moss v Mjondalen - 1.80 Moss
- My weekly what the bleep will Mjondalen do today? Question necessitates zero research. They lost to bottom of the league last week!
14:00 - Raufoss v Start - 2.30 Start
- Leave this to the in-play stats.
Swedish Superettan
14:00 - Orgryte v Ostersund - 2.05 Orgryte
Orgryte - 14th
- Only one win since the 6th of June. No win in four at home, conceded in their last eight-to-one defeat. Last head-to-head unbeaten at home against the top eight, but have scored and conceded in every match. 3 to 2 draws and a 3-1 win at home against the top eight.
Ostersund - 5th
- Unbeaten in five scored in the last five three away. Losses came against ninth, 12th and 15th. Two of them were one nil. Six of seven goals conceded away came second half five nil-nil at halftime away only won at full time.
Conclusions
- Ostersund come into this in the better form. Their away form not strongly readable. 2 losses were 1-0 so any defeat could be a 1-goal-in-it defeat.
- Orgryte tend to have 2-2's v the top 8 so this could be tight. Are you with Orgryte's home form v top 8?
14:00 - Trelleborg v Oster - 1.95 Oster
Trelleborg - 9th
- Only 1 win in 7.
- No win in three at home, beat second and fifth at home. But those are the only wins home and away against the top 11 five two defeat last head-to-head. Eight of 12 goals scored at home came first half.
Oster - 4th
- Scored and conceded in the last eight away matches unbeaten in three away. All defeats this season have come against the top six scored and conceded in all bar one away match.
Conclusions
- Clear pattern Oster. They only tend to lose v the top 6 and score and concede without losing v 7th and lower.
