Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 1, 2017

Yesterday's matches really dropped in interest after the 3pm kick offs ended. Today I want to live chat when we have good quality matches all at the same time so 13:45 start today will give the Dutch Eredivisie time to breath and segway into Italian Seria A. I will continue into the Newcastle v Liverpool match. I did like the shortlist of matches I did at the DRT Facebook page. Today I continue and have called the shortlist 'worthy favourites'. I have also listed matches where goals are likely so any halftime 0-0 can be attacked (all bar 1 match came in yesterday-fecking Cardiff!) See you at 13:45.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Arsenal v Brighton - 1.26 Arsenal

  • Arsenal, arse away from home, win to nal at home.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for Arsenal now. 2 consecutive home wins with clean sheets. Scoring 2+ goals at home.
  • Arsenal have not had a 0-0 at halftime at home, albeit only 3 matches.
  • Brighton's 2 wins have come at home. 0-0-1 scored away from home by Brighton.
  • Brighton put up a spirited defensive performance v man City before succumbing.
  • Arsenal really should be confident of another home win. They need to win at home as they are Sunday league pub side away from home.
  • 2 goals minimum really expected of Arsenal today.

14:15 - Everton v Burnley - 1.71 Everton

  • 3 Everton wins in 4 head to heads. Burnley's sole win was care of a 90th minute winner.
  • Everton have won by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Burnley have lost 11/18 away matches.
  • Burnley have drawn the first half in 8/11 away matches.

Everton

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches came v top teams Chelsea, Tottenham and Man Utd. We have a marker here when Everton play the elite.
  • They kept Man City to a 1-1, beat Stoke 1-0 and beat Bournemouth 2-1.
  • Only 1 clean sheet but remember the teams they have played.

Burnley

  • 3 draws in 4 matches. 0-1-1-1-0 goals scored. Positive results v the big guns have come via carelessness from the big guns.
  • Both teams have scored in Burnley away matches.

Conclusions

  • A Lukaku-less Everton look a tad lightweight on top. Mirales is a good signing.Niasse got 2 last match.
  • I could see a 0-0 here for a while as that seems to be the Burnley tactic. They also score few goals and I would lay Burnley if Burnley scored first given they have scored 0-1-1-1-0 recently.

16:30 - Newcastle v Liverpool - 1.74 Liverpool

  • Interesting to see Liverpool's odds relatively high here given Newcastle lack the strength of the Liverpool squad.
  • No draw for Newcastle this season.
  • 2 home wins though v West Ham and Stoke.
  • A 0-2 loss at home to Tottenham should be a template for an on-form Liverpool.
  • Newcastle wins have all come v the current bottom 6.
  • It's all fun and games for Liverpool on their travels. 3-3, 5-0 loss, 2-3 win. That, I suppose may be the reason why Liverpool are not red hot favourites.
  • This is an interesting encounter. Will Liverpool continue to concede 2+ goals away from home? I hope so. I would still keep the faith in Liverpool equalising.
  • Liverpool I must say were poor away at Spartak Moscow, utterly dominating but 2nd half only 1 shot on target and stuttering.
  • Newcastle v Tottenham is the kind of scoreline I would expect from an on-form Liverpool. But this is a 3-5-2 conceded away Liverpool!!

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - Freiburg v Hoffenheim - 1.94 Hoffenheim

  • 5 score draws and a 2-1 Hoff win in the last 6 head to heads.
  • SC Freiburg have scored first in 9/14 home matches.
  • Hoffenheim have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Freiburg

  • No win.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches.
  • 3 0-0's.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 at home.
  • Not scored 2 goals this season.

Hoffenheim

  • Unbeaten.
  • Dcored in all matches.
  • 2-2 and 2-3 in 2 away matches.
  • 2-2-1-3-2 goals scored in their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Freiburg cannot score that 2nd goal, then Freiburg are layable if scoring first. Hoff have goals in them and at their best (if no post Champions League hangover) should score 2 goals at least.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the Hoff but Freiburg 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 at home suggests at THEIR best, Freiburg could shut the back door.
  • In head to heads both teams tend to score.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich - 1.4 Bayern

  • Manager-less Bayern at the moment unless someone has been appointed.
  • 4 consecutive Bayern wins ended with a 1-1 draw last time out.
  • A Dortmund 2-0 win at home v Hertha is a template for what Bayern should achieve.
  • 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 at home for Hertha this season.
  • Hertha's only clean sheet came first match of the season.
  • 3-2-0-4-3-2 goals scored by Bayern.
  • 2-0 loss and 2-2 bayern the only dropped points coinciding with a Champions League match upcoming.
  • I would expect a return to winning ways today, in fact it is a necessity for Bayern to win after a draw. They are 3rd in the league currently.
  • Bayern have scored 2 goals before halftime on 4 occasions this season and in their last 3 matches.

17:00 - FC Koln v RB Leipzig - 2 RB

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Leipzig in the last 2 head to heads.
  • FC Koln have lost 6/10 home matches against top-six teams while RB Leipzig have won 4/7 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • RB Leipzig have scored first in 4/7 away matches against bottom-six teams.

FC Koln

  • Failed to score in all bar 1 match.

Leipzig

  • 2 losses this season came away from home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Leipzig have scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime this season for Leipzig.

Conclusions

  • Koln will win a match at some point. Note that. But today? Versus a team scoring 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches? I am not so sure.
  • Koln have scored in 2 head to heads I would have to lay Koln if Koln scores first.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Napoli v Cagliari - 1.14 Napoli

  • 3-3-3-5-3 goals scored by Napoli in their last 5 head to heads fits in perfectly with a 1-14 quote for Napoli.
  • Napoli have had W/W double results in 13/16 home matches against middle-third teams while Cagliari have had L/L double results in 5/7 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Napoli have won 10/10 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 6 wins for Napoli, 3-3-3-6-4-3 goals scored this season.
  • Napoli conceded in 4 matches and won.
  • Cagliari lost away v Juventus, AC Milan and that is a template for today.
  • Where Cagliari kept a clean sheet they won.
  • This is short and sweet. The number 3 recurs here. The expectation is for Napoli to score 3 goals at least.
  • 1.14 odds teams tend to score before halftime so if 0-0 after 15 minutes, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or back Napoli in the halftime market.

14:00 - Benevento v Inter - 1.28 Inter

  • I love a bit of Inter. My Italian team this season.
  • Benevento have failed to score in 5 matches and have lost all matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 for Inter. Note their last 2 matches saw laboured scoring from Inter.
  • 1-1 v Bologna care of a penalty. 1-0 v Genoa came 87th minute.
  • 5 of 6 Inter goals scored away came last 15 mins of matches so no panic Mr. Mainwaring if Inter have not scored by the 75th minute. It seems the norm. Keep the faith in an Inter goal if 0-0 or 1-0 late on.

14:00 - Chievo v Fiorentina - 2.62 Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina have not conceded a goal in the last 6 head to heads so why is the market finding it difficult to split the teams?
  • Chievo have drawn the first half in 11/14 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Fiorentina away matches against middle-third teams.

Chievo

  • Have only kept one clean sheet.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime but not 0-0 fulltime.
  • 2 1-1 draws and a win last 3 matches.

Fiorentina

  • Defeats this season v Inter Milan, Sampdoria (who started the season strongly) and Juventus is hardly a cause for alarm. These were always going to be tough matches for Fiorentina.
  • Other than those matches, 2 wins and a draw.

Conclusions

  • Due deference to the head to heads. Chievo will score against Fiorentina again, but today? I would tentatively nod towards the away side today. The teams they have lost to, well 2 of the teams, are the cream of Italian football.
  • I would lay Chievo if Chievo score first.
  • I would note any 0-0 at halftime and note that Chievo have had 3 0-0's at halftime but not fulltime.

14:00 - Lazio v Sassuolo - 1.46 Lazio

  • 2 Sassuolo head to head wins with 2 Lazio 2-1 wins.
  • Lazio have won 18/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sassuolo have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Sassuolo have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Lazio

  • 4 wins and a loss v Napoli for Lazio last 5 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the wins.
  • 2-4-3-1-3 goals scored.
  • 2-2-1-1-2 goals before halftime in recent matches.

Sassuolo

  • 4 defeats and a single win last 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • It does look straightforward enough. Both teams could score with lazio being advantaged here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Lazio recently but remember we only have a small sample of matches to work with.

14:00 - Spal v Crotone - 1.96 Spal

  • Middle-third promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 58% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Crotone have lost 14/20 away matches.

Spal

  • Only 1 clean sheet first match of the season.
  • 4 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 3 of them.
  • 3-0-2 scored at home. They won scoring 3 but lost 2-3 v Napoli.
  • 5 consecutive 1-0 or 0-1 at halftime at home.

Crotone

  • Only win came last match, at home, v newly promoted Benevento.
  • Failed to score in first 4 matches of the season.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals at this stage of the season.

14:00 - Torino v Verona - 1.34 Torino

  • Torino FC have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 62% of away matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.
  • Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 70% of away matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.

Torino

  • Only loss last match v Juventus.
  • 3-2 scored at home.
  • Failed to score only in that last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Verona

  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • Have tended to concede 3 goals at least in defeat.

Conclusions

  • This should be a return to winning ways for Torino after the Turin derby loss.
  • We could see 2/3 goals from Torino today if on form. With Verona having trouble even scoring, a Verona first goal would be a shock and Torino would be backable in that case.

17:00 - AC Milan v Roma - 2.64 both sides

  • The market cannot split these 2 Titans.
  • Roma are actually unbeaten in 4 head to heads.
  • Neither side has had a draw this season. Will that trend continue? If so, lay any late draw.
  • Milan losses came away v Lazio and Sampdoria. There is a hint that they will be vulnerable against the top sides away, but what about at home?
  • 2-1, 2-1, 2-0 at home but Roma are a step up.
  • Roma lost to Inter Milan and won their other 3 matches, 3 of them without conceding. A 0-1 win v Atalanta is eye catching as Atalanta were 4th last season.
  • Roma have played 2 newly promoted sides and won easily. They are yet to be really tested I would suggest.
  • An intriguing match I cannot get an angle into. Will both teams continue to avoid the draw? Will Roma continue their dominance in head to heads?

19:45 - Atalanta v Juventus - 1.76 Juventus

  • Juventus tend to win head to heads, scoring 2/3 goals at least.
  • Atalanta have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Their losses to Roma and Napoli are endemic it seems of a side likely to lose to the big boys (Juve and Inter Milan included).
  • Atalanta have yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • 100% win record for Juventus. Juventus have only conceded in their 2 away matches.
  • We should expect today that Atalanta will continue to be vulnerable v the top sides in Italy and are likely to lose.
  • Their 0-1 v Roma might suggest a tightening defensively v Juventus so do not be surprised if Juve struggle for a 1st half goal has happened mid week in the Champions League.
  • It might even be a 0-1, 1-2, or 0-2 today. Note Juve concede away at the moment and only away.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

11:00 - Sociedad v Betis - 1.99 Sociedad

  • 3 consecutive Sociedad wins in head to heads.
  • Real Sociedad have scored first in 13/20 home matches while Real Betis have lost 7/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Real Betis have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

Sociedad

  • No draw.
  • 3 wins and now 3 losses.
  • 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 3-3-4-1-0-2 goals scored.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.

Betis

  • Only 2 losses came away.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in first match only, v Barcelona.

Conclusions

  • No draw for either side. Lay the late draw?
  • Sociedad have started to falter recently after a superb start to the season.
  • I see goals in this match- all over 2.5 goals this season for Sociedad.
  • Both teams could score.

15:15 - Barcelona v Las Palmas - 1.09 Barcelona

  • 9 goals in 2 head to heads scored by Barcelona.
  • Barcelona have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Las Palmas have lost 9/10 away matches.
  • Barcelona have had W/W double results in 13/15 home matches.

Barcelona

  • All wins.
  • 2 goals scored at least.
  • 2-5-6 goals scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Las Palmas

  • No draw this season.
  • 4 losses and 2 wins.
  • 1-5 loss to Atl Madrid might be a template for today.
  • 2 1-0 losses away v Valencia and Sevilla.

Conclusions

  • 1.09 suggests Barcelona should score 3/4 goals at least.
  • Barca could score 5 again even.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but do delay given Las Palmas have had 2 1-0 defeats away.

17:30 - Valencia v Athletic Bilbao - 1.82 Valencia

  • The home side has tended to win head to heads.
  • Ath. Bilbao have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches.
  • Valencia have won 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

Valencia

  • Unbeaten.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime was at home v Atl Madrid, a 0-0.

Ath Bilbao

  • Only 2 wins.
  • No win in 3 saw 2 losses and a draw.

Conclusions

  • Valencia look a lot more robust this season. They have had a tough 2/3 seasons and been unreliable. But they look a lot sharper and a lot better defensively.
  • Ath Bilbao are coming off the back of a 0-1 loss as 1.29 favourites mid week.
  • I will enter this match expecting Valencia not to lose.

17:30 - Villarreal v Eibar - 1.82 Villareal

  • 2-1 and 2-3 Eibar in the last 2 head to heads. Very interesting.
  • Villarreal have won 12/20 home matches. Eibar have conceded first in 10/17 away matches.

Villareal

  • 3-1 and 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 wins v Betis and Alaves.

Eibar

  • No draw sees 4 defeats and 2 wins.
  • The wins were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals at this stage of the season.

19:45 - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.12 Real Madrid

  • 4 wins to nil for Real Madrid in head to heads.
  • Real Madrid have won 12/18 home matches while Espanyol have lost 10/10 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • Espanyol have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against Big Two teams.

Real Madrid

  • All 3 wins have come.....away from home.
  • 2-2, 1-1, 0-1 loss at home.

Espanyol

  • 2 losses v Leganes and Barcelona.
  • 2 wins have come at home.

Conclusions

  • Astonishing that Real Madrid have not won in 3 home matches. Surely this must end tonight.
  • Real Madrid have scored only 1-1 in their 2 home matches.
  • 1.12 odds tells us that Real Madrid should score 3+ goals.today. What is up with Real this season?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Az Alkmaar v Feyenoord - 2.32 Feyenoord

  • 3-4-5 goals scored by Feyenoord in their last 3 head to heads.
  • Feyenoord have won 13/20 away matches and they have scored first in 12/18 away matches against top-six teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 AZ Alkmaar home matches against top-six teams.

AZ Alkmaar

  • 4 wins sandwiched between 2 defeats.
  • 2-0, 2-1, 0-2 at home.
  • 2-2-2-2-2-0 scored this season.
  • No draw.

Feyenoord

  • 4 wins but now 2 consecutive defeats v PSV and surprising NAC Breda.
  • Feyenoord failed to score in 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • No draw.

Conclusions

  • In head to heads, Feyenoord love meeting AZ! 12 goals in 3 matches.
  • But they have now failed to score in 2 matches.
  • AZ failed to score in their last match. Why has their run of 2 goals a game suddenly ended?
  • A watching brief here for me given the Feyenoord wobbles.

13:30 - Heerenveen v Ajax - 1.78 Ajax

  • Ajax love meeting Heerenveen in head to heads. All wins recently.
  • Heerenveen have scored first in 12/20 home matches.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Ajax away matches against top-six teams.

Heerenveen

  • Great season, unbeaten so far.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • 3-1-2-2-2-2 goals scored.
  • 3 of 4 wins were 1-2 albeit away from home.
  • Beat PSV Eindhoven 2-0 at home. is this a weakened PSV? I note Feyenoord too are beginning to falter and we shall see below how Ajax are doing.

Ajax

  • Unbeaten in 4 sandwiched between 2 2-1 defeats.
  • 2-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2 away from home. Poor stuff. Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • What is it with the big 3? Feyenoord 2 consecutive defeats; Ajax not the force they should be and Heerenveen beating the likes of PSV!
  • I look forward to this match. Heerenveen could get on the scoresheet today.
  • I would look for a 2-1/1-2 correct score trade here as I feel both teams could score, Heerenveen are scoring 2 goals regularly and Ajax away have the kind of scorelines I like to see in a 2-1/1-2 trade i.e. 2-1, 0-2. 1-1 and 1-2.

13:30 - Vitesse v Utrecht - 2.3 Vitesse

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Utrecht in the 2 head to heads.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 11/15 Vit. Arnhem home matches.
  • Utrecht have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches against top-six teams.

Vitesse

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • 4-1, 1-2 and 1-1 at home. Lost to AZ Alkmaar who are in good form.
  • Scored in all matches.

Utrecht

  • No draw.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Conceded 11 goals in 2 matches v Twente and PSV.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.

Conclusions

  • You might need to ready yourself for an upping in Utrecht's defensive game after conceding 11 goals in 2 matches.
  • I can see Vitesse score today and would have to favour Vitesse based on that 1-2 win away at Ajax.

15:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v Roda JC - 1.8 Sparta

  • 2-2 and 3-1 Roda in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 4/8 Sparta R'dam home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Roda JC have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches.

Sparta

  • Only 1 win, a 1-0 at home.
  • All 3 defeats without scoring. 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal in a match this season and are 1.8 favourites?

Roda

  • All defeats.
  • 4-2-2-2 goals conceded this season away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 2 defeats.

Conclusions

  • You want me to back Sparta who have only 1 win, a 1-0, and have not scored more than 2 goals this season.
  • I see the potential for a lay of Sparta if Sparta score first. Roda have scored in 2 consecutive matches, albeit defeats.
  • Roda have conceded 2 goals consistently away so that is a worry. A match of interest. We will see via the in-play stats how Sparta are.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

Not my favourite league but I will research.

14:00 - ESTAC Troyes v St Etienne - 2.32 St Etienne

  • Troyes are newly promoted. The last 2 head to heads, prior to May 2016, were 1-0 St Etienne wins.
  • Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Saint-Etienne have won 6/10 away matches against promoted teams.

Troyes

  • Have only scored 2 goals once this season.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • 1-0-0-0 scored at home.

St Etienne

  • Only 1 loss v Paris St Germain.
  • That was the only match they failed to score in.
  • 2 0-1 wins away other than that PSG loss.
  • Those 2 0-1 away wins saw a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3 of 4 wins were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • This match lends itself to a 1-1 or a 0-1 for me. Fear not if 0-0 at haltime. Twice St Etienne have had a 0-0 at halftime only to win the match 0-1.

16:00 - Angers v Lyon - 2.34 Lyon

  • Lyon have won the last 3 head to heads without dificulty, and scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Angers have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches while as have Lyon in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Lyon have scored first in 7/10 away matches.

Angers

  • Only 1 defeat....but only 1 win. 5 score draws this season.
  • 4 score draws in 5 matches.

Lyon

  • Lyon's only loss came v Paris St Germain.
  • Lyon have failed to score in 2 consecutive aways, a 0-0 and a loss to PSG.

Conclusions

  • Logically a team which score draws looks a team to lay if leading. Is that the case with Angers?
  • Lyon have failed to score in 2 aways but I would dismiss the PSG result as PSG have simply bought their way to the title and look untouchable.
  • I would look to lay any Angers lead. If Lyon lead 0-1 late into the 2nd half. I would lay them as Angers like the score draw.

20:00 - Nice v Marseille - 2.58 Nice

  • Absolutely spanked Monaco at home in the last Cote D'Azur derby. Here is another.
  • Nice have won 8/8 home matches against top-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/8 such matches.
  • Marseille have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

Nice

  • Loss, Win, Win, Draw at home. Old silly haircut himself, Balotelli has scored 4 goals in the last 3 matches.
  • 2-4-2 scored at home last 3 matches.

Marseille

  • 2 losses v Monaco and Rennes. Monaco were easily beaten 4-0 at home by Nice.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins.
  • 0-1, 6-1, 0-2 away.
  • All 4 away goals scored 2nd half. Conceded 4 goals away 1st half.

Conclusions

  • A very interesting Cote D'Azur derby. As with the Nice v Monaco Cote derby, the home team tended to win in head to heads, so we see the same pattern here.
  • With Balotteli in good form, albeit 2 goals were penalties, I would tentatively go with Nice here today not to lose. They have goals in them at home, enough to suggest that if Marseille score first, we lay Marseille.