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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Tottenham v Wolves - 2.54 Tottenham

  • 1st goal: Spurs have scored first in 7/11 home matches while Wolves have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. Spurs have won 7/11 home matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 for Tottenham under Mourinho.
  • Wolves have only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for Wolves.
  • Wolves have only beaten the Man City home and away of the top 11.
  • Angles? 2.54 the favourite suggests it's...drum roll please....too tough to call. I can't pick a winner. Can you? I like Wolves recent record for clean sheets. That is interesting. Spurs have 3 wins in 4 under Mourinho recently.

14:00 - Everton v Man Utd - 2.72 Everton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/19 Everton home matches and in 11/14 Man Utd away matches. Man Utd have lost 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 2.72 the favourite. Yikes! New manager for Everton.
  • Losses for Ancellotti came v Man City and Arsenal. A solid enough record.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets all of a sudden for Man Utd. 2 wins v Chelsea and Watford.
  • No wonder the market is all of a headscratch!

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Sevilla v Osasuna - 1.49 Sevilla

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Sevilla home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/12 Osasuna away matches. Osasuna have conceded first in 9/11 away matches.

Sevilla - 4th

  • Only 7 losses.
  • A win and 3 score draws at home last 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 and last 10 at home.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Osasuna - 12th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 42% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten  a top 10 side away.
  • 11 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I must favour Sevilla today. Oasauna are yet to beat a top 10 side away. Strong 2nd half scoring for both sides so note that if it is 0-0 at halftime.

13:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal - 2.46 Ath Bilbao

  • 1st goal: Ath. Bilbao have scored first in 11/12 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Villarreal have lost 6/11 away matches. Ath. Bilbao have won 7/9 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

15:00 - Espanyol v Atletico Madrid - 2.14 Atl Madrid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/18 Espanyol home matches and in 9/11 Atl. Madrid away matches against bottom-six teams. Atl. Madrid have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches.

Espanyol - 20th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Win last 4 home matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 goals conceded in 3/4 recent matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v 18th and lower.
  • 3-1 loss v Atl Madrid earlier this season.

Atl Madrid - 3rd

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 2 losses and a draw away last 3 matches.
  • 67% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 0-2 and 0-1 wins away v the bottom 3.
  • 70+% of goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Atl Madrid have a good record v the bottom 3, 2 wins to nil away.
  • Atl Madrid tend to keep 0-0 at halftime away so note that. But with an Espanyol with only 3 clean sheets, we expect Atl Madrid to make the breakthrough at some point.

17:30 - Mallorca v Getafe - 2.36 Getafe

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Mallorca home matches and in 11/15 Getafe away matches against bottom-six teams. Getafe have drawn 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Mallorca - 18th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches at home did come at home.
  • 3 1-0 scorelines last 4 matches, 2 were losses.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches at home.
  • Failed to score at home v 3rd, 4th, 6th. Beat 2nd, 7th and 8th at home.
  • 4-2 loss last head to head.

Getafe - 5th

  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 matches.
  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 away. Last loss away was v Barcelona.
  • All defeats this season came v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • The market does not discount Mallorca but with only 1 wins in 12 matches, their recent record is not good. Wins recently were 1-0 so lay them if they score first and cover the 1-0 scoreline.
  • Getafe only tend to lose to the top 7.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.32 Real Madrid

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 Real Madrid home matches against Big Two teams and in 4/5 Barcelona away matches against Big Two teams. Barcelona have won 4/5 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • It's a hum dinger! I cannot get an angle though!

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.7 AC Milan

  • Match outcome: AC Milan have won 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Genoa have lost 12/17 away matches against top-half teams. AC Milan have scored first in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

AC Milan - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches. The New manager is embedding his style.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home recently.
  • Lost at halftime only once in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower.

Genoa - 18th

  • 2 wins and a 2-3 loss last 3 matches.
  • Genoa have a new manager, 8 matches in. Only 3 wins. But as I say, 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win away under new manager.
  • 2-1-3-2 goals scored recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime under new manager.

Conclusions

  • 2 new managers so caution here, particularly as the new manager for Genoa has them scoring 2-1-3-2 goals recently, including 2 goals against solid yardstick Lazio.
  • So please remember new managers both when trading this match.

14:00 - Lecce v Atalanta - 1.41 Atalanta

  • 1st goal: Lecce have conceded first in 9/12 home matches while Atalanta have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Atalanta away matches against bottom-six teams.

Lecce - 16th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches includes away at Napoli but brought down to earth with a 4-0 loss v Roma away.
  • Draw, Win, Win at home.
  • Not beaten the top 5 yet.
  • 3-1 loss v Atalanta earlier.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 8.
  • 71% goals scored, 63% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta - 4th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Scored last 12 matches.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 6 wins and a draw away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Be wary of Lecce with 3 wins in 4 matches but noticeably it all came crashing down v Roma last match. With Atalanta winning 3-1 the last time these 2 met, we must favour the away side, unbeaten away v 12th and lower.
  • Very strong 2nd half scoring and conceding for Lecce so note that if quiet first half. Be wary of Lecce but remember that they are yet to beat the top 5.

14:00 - Parma v Spal - 2.08 Parma

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Parma home matches and they have drawn the first half in 11/18 home matches. SPAL 1907 have conceded first in 12/14 away matches.

Parma - 9th

  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 42% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower. 1-0 loss away v SPAL.

SPAL - 20th

  • 10 losses in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 13 and last 7 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 away wins v 4th and 14th.

Conclusions

  • Contrasting over and under 2.5 goals patterns for both sides.
  • Parma are unbeaten at home v 12th and lower and, although losing to SPAL last time, should not do so again given SPAL have only 2 away wins and have 10 losses in 12 matches.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Brescia - 1.76 Sassuolo

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/12 Sassuolo home matches and +3.5 goals in 6/10 Sassuolo home matches against bottom-six teams. Brescia have lost 8/11 away matches.

Sassuolo - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches came last match.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Conceded in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 14th and lower. 0-2 win v Brescia last head to head.

Brescia - 19th

  • No win in 10 and 4 away. 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 4 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 14.
  • 3 away wins were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • If Brescia win away, they win 0-1 so lay them if they score first and cover the 0-1 scoreline.
  • Sassuolo have a 100% win record v 14th and lower.

17:00 - Cagliari v Roma - 1.98 Roma

  • Match outcome: Cagliari have lost 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while Roma have won 13/20 away matches against middle-third teams. Roma have scored first in 9/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

Cagliari - 11th

  • No win in 10 and in 4 at home.
  • Conceded last 13 matches and last 7 at home.
  • All defeats at home v the top 7.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 68% goals scored, 79% goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Roma - 5th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 10 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Only 2 losses away v 9th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • Cagliari are going through a terrible run after their first half of the season saw them top 4. Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding so if Roma have not scored by halftime, they are likely to score 2nd half.
  • Roma are on a poor run but have only 2 losses away v 9th and 12th. Yes, near today's 11th. Roma did score 2 goals at least in their 2 recent away defeats. Given Cagliari's poor recent form (yes Roma poor too!). I would still think Roma could get a positive result here.

19:45 - Juventus v Inter - 2.32 Juventus

  • 1st goal: Juventus have conceded first in 5/10 home matches against top-six teams while Inter Milan have won the first half in 7/10 away matches. Inter Milan have scored first in 11/12 away matches.
  • This could be a title decider. A great match in prospect but I am not going to pick a winner here. Enjoy the match or use the in-play stats to determine a likely winner.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - Union Berlin v Wolfsburg - 2.7 Union Berlin

  • 1st half outcome: Union Berlin have drawn the first half in 4/6 home matches against top-half teams as have Wolfsburg in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Wolfsburg have conceded first in 12/16 away matches.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Leverkusen - 1.53 Leipzig

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 RB Leipzig home matches and in 10/10 Leverkusen away matches against top-six teams. Leverkusen have had L/L double results in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 at home.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 at home.
  • Scored last 11 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 6th.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not beaten the top 7 at home.

Leverkusen - 5th

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches away.
  • No draw in 11 and in 11 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 12 of 19 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I think Leipzig's odds are too short here given they are yet to beat the top 7 at home. Add to that the fact that Leverkusen have won 6 of their last 7 matches, I would tentatively lay Leipzig if they led narrowly in this match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.76 Werder Bremen

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/16 W. Bremen home matches and in 10/13 E. Frankfurt away matches. E. Frankfurt have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - RKC Waalwijk v FC Utrecht - 1.75 Utrecht

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 Waalwijk home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 10/18 Utrecht away matches. Utrecht have scored first in 10/13 away matches against bottom-six teams.

RKC - 18th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Beat Utrecht 0-1 earlier this season, the only win home and away v the top 8.
  • 9 goals conceded last 15 mins of home matches.

Utrecht - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v form side Feyenoord.
  • 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3-3 and 2-4 away v the bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • RKC did get the win earlier this season but that looks anomalous and certainly I would lay them (and cover 1-0) if they lead here today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on seasonal stats.
  • I would lay any late score draw because a) Utrecht want to end a run of 3 and b) RKC concede late at home.

13:30 - PSV v Feyenoord - 1.96 PSV

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 9/13 PSV home matches and +2.5 goals in 11/15 Feyenoord away matches. Feyenoord have lost 7/9 away matches against Big Two teams.

PSV - 4th

  • 3 consecutive wins after a run of 3 without a win.
  • No defeat 5 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd.
  • 3-1 loss to Feyenoord last head to head.

Feyenoord - 3rd

  • 7 consecutive wins, 3 away.
  • No defeat in 12.
  • 2+ goals scored last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came v the top 2.
  • 13 of 19 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On ultra recent form, Feyenoord are the side to be with here, only really losing v the top 2 and in top nick. PSV though make this intriguing as they are back in form, albeit briefly with 3 consecutive wins after 3 without a win.

15:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v Emmen - 1.97 Sparta

  • Match outcome: Sparta R'dam have won 6/12 home matches while Emmen have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 away matches. Emmen have lost the first half in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Sparta - 11th

  • 2 wins in 3 but not the most consistent of sides.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (17%).
  • Lost 2-0 to Emmen this season. 4 wins and a draw at home v 13th and lower.

Emmen - 12th

  • 2 wins and a draw in 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • 17% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats and a draw away v the top 14.
  • Scored only 5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Seasonal stats say lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but it would rely more on Sparta than an Emmen scoring only 5 goals away this season.
  • On that latter basis, we lay Emmen if they score as they are unlikely to follow up (cover the 0-1 of course).
  • Sparta hit winning form v 13th and lower. Can that extend to 12th?

19:00 - Ajax v AZ Alkmaar - 1.53 Ajax

  • Match outcome: Ajax have won 10/11 home matches against top-six teams while AZ Alkmaar have lost 8/9 away matches against Big Two teams. Ajax have had W/W double results in 17/20 home matches.

Ajax - 1st

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 17 and in 12 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0-'s at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 11/12 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 9/12 at home.
  • All wins bar a loss v the top 5 at home.
  • 1-0 loss to AZ last time these 2 met.

AZ Alkmaar - 2nd

  • 3 wins and 2 defeats last 6 matches.
  • 2 losses in 3 away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 wins v the top 4.
  • 9 goals scored away last 15 minutes of first half.

Conclusions

  • Top 2 sides may suggest the match is tighter than the odds suggest. After all AZ are unbeaten v the top 4.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If 0-0 after 30 mins, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. AZ score a lot end of first half away.