Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

13:30 looks as good a time as any to start the Twitter live chat @drtclub. It will encompass the English Premier League, Holland, and move into Sweden. A pity the Italians are largely later on this evening. It would have been nice if they had their usual mid-afternoon Sunday kick-offs.
I am not sure what good research is at this stage. At least we have a reference for last year's form and head to heads readily available. In-play stats though are key. See you at 13:30 @drtclub Twitter.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Burnley v Watford - 2.46 Burnley

  • Burnley, you feel, are going to be extremely hard to score against.
  • A 0-0 in their opener v Southampton just needs a goal. For me it is a poor attack for Burnley which may see them in trouble.
  • Who the feck is Richarlison? 2-0 Watford in their opener. Good result v Brighton.
  • Burnley were 7th last season, Watford were 14th. Only 2 losses v teams below them at home last season, one of those on the last day of the season was a dead rubber.
  • 1-0 win v Watford last season at home.
  • Only 4 away wins for Watford last season, v 10th, 12th, 17th and 18th.
  • Back 0-0 pre match? Burnley did tend to score 2nd half last year - that was a prominent pattern at home. I tend to cash out halftime if 0-0 at halftime.

13:30 - Man City v Huddersfield - 1.1 Man City

  • It's an easy set of fixtures for City coming up. Seeing what they did to Arsenal, Huddersfield are in for a torrid afternoon.
  • 1.1 usually suggests 3/4 goals.
  • Huddersfield kept City to a 0-0 at home last season. 1-2 away so the value is in laying City at 1.1 but it is highly unlikely to be a profitable lay. To be profitable we need 0-0 for the duration of the match or Huddersfield to take the lead. With such an easy dismantling by Chelsea, Huddersfield are likely to suffer the same fate today. 3-0, any other home? 0-0 cover?

16:00 - Brighton v Man Utd - 1.79 Man Utd

  • 2-0 loss for Brighton away at Watford in their opener. 2-1 win for United v Leicester in their opener, required a penalty to start it off.
  • Brighton beat United 1-0 at home last season. They even drew 1-1 with Tottenham at home.
  • Man Utd lost 5 away matches v 3rd, 5th, 10th, 15th and 16th, 3 of those were 1-0.
  • No strong angles yet.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Brentford v Sheffield Wednesday - 1.6 Brentford

  • 9th v 15th from last season.
  • Only 3 defeats at home last season suggests Brentford's foundation will be their home form.
  • 2-0 win at home v Wed last season.
  • Sheff Wed last season were actually unbeaten away v the top 5. Then only 1 win away v 5th-16th.
  • Based on last year, Brentford will eye a positive result.
  • 5-1 win v another Yorkshire side Rotherham then a 1-1 sees Brentford conceding but not losing.
  • 3-2 loss v Watford and 1-1 v Hull, sees Sheff Wed losing against a London/Essex side.

ITALIAN SERIE A

17:00 - Torino v Roma - 2.05 Roma

  • 9th v 3rd. Rather Roma were best of the rest given Juventus and Napoli were so far clear.
  • A clear pattern last year for Torino who failed to score that 2nd goal v top 8 sides at home.
  • 0-1 loss at home to Roma last season.
  • Roma lost only 1 away match last season, 1-0 v Juventus.
  • Roma have been far the busier in the transfer market. N'Zonzi, Kluivert from Ajax, Schick who was the Sampdoria goalscorer last season, Defrel and Pastore the 20+ million purchases.
  • Allisson the keeper and Nainggolan the major transfers out.
  • If Roma can maintain last year's formidable away form, we must side with them.

19:30 - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.45 Fiorentina

  • 1-2 and 3-1 Samp last season.Quagliarella is the key man for Sampdoria infront of goal this season.
  • 10th v 8th last season.
  • Samp only lost 1 home match outside the top 5 last season.
  • Only 2 away wins Fiorentina last season v top 11.
  • Samp should feel confident today although the market does not feel confident in picking a winner.

19:30 - Empoli v Cagliari - 2.2 Empoli

  • Empoli are newly promoted. Cagliari finished 16th last season.
  • Cagliari lost only 1/8 v the bottom 4 last season. Empoli a complete unknown in this tougher league.

19:30 - Sassuolo v Inter - 1.57 Inter

  • 11th v 4th from last season.
  • Only 1 win v top 7 last season for Sassuolo was v Inter 1-0. They did the double over Inter last season.
  • Inter lost 3 away, 1 1-0 and a 2-0. They failed to score in 7/10 matches away v top 12. Will this concern be addressed?
  • With a team as big as Inter, it is important to look at transfers.
  • Kondogbia the big transfer out. Martinez from South America (a relative unknown but pricey!) and Gagliardini from Atalanta the 2 big buys.
  • I cannot see any real marquee forward for Inter but thoroughly impressive Perisic is in midfield. He shone at the World Cup for Croatia.
  • Inter will be aware Sassuolo did the double last season. Look for a response today.

19:30 - Parma v Udinese - 2.4 Parma

  • These 2 have not met since 2015. Parma are newly promoted.
  • Udinese finished 13th last season, 11 consecutive 2+ goal losses in a row, no win in 13 within their last 15 matches saw Udinese flirting with relegation.
  • If that Udinese manager remains, then I'm getting him to buy my lottery tickets as he's one lucky bugger!!
  • Not much known regarding Parma back in Seria A.

19:30 - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.5 AC Milan

  • 6th v 12th from last season.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 win for Milan last season.At home they only lost one match v 8th and lower.
  • Genoa only beat one of the top 11 away. 5 0-0's.
  • Genoa had a reputation for being ultra defensive as you can surmise last season.
  • That is the risk in backing Milan, that Genoa park the bus.
  • Caldara from Juventus and Kalinic from Fiorentina are the 2 big AC Milan signings.
  • Higuan I believe is here on loan. He is an all out striker.
  • Carlos Bacca is another recognisable name in.
  • Bonucci the big transfer out.
  • The sight of established strikers Bacca and Higuan in the ranks must be very welcoming for Milan and could make the difference. Surely Gonzo et al can break this Genoa defence?

19:30 - Bologna v SPAL - 2.2 Bologna

  • 15th v 17th, reminders of a relegation battle survived by both sides.
  • 2-1 win v SPAL at home last season.3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • SPAL had the kind of a revival I assume is down to a change in management. Only 2 losses since 25th February 2018.
  • Their 3 away wins came v the bottom 3.
  • No angles here really. With SPAL's strong finish, they may take this momentum into this new season.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Utrecht v Zwolle - 1.66 Utrecht

  • 4-0 loss and 2-3 loss for both sides in their openers.
  • 5th v 9th last season.
  • Only 1 loss for Utrecht came 1st match of the season.
  • 2-1 win for Utrecht at home last season v Zwolle.
  • Zwolle did not beat a top 6 side home or away last season.

13:30 - Emmen v AZ Alkmaar - 1.57 AZ

  • Emmen are newly promoted. AZ showed their wares in their opener. Hugely impressive.
  • 3rd last year, AZ only lost one match home and away v 5th and lower.
  • I would expect an away win.

13:30 - Feyenoord v Excelsior - 1.28 Feyenoord

  • A torrid week for Feyenoord. 4-0 loss v Trencin, 2-0 loss v De Graafschap.
  • At time of writing they face Trencin again.
  • A quality forward in Robin Van Persie could help them  this season.
  • 1-1 for Excelsior v Fortuna Sittard this season.
  • 4th v 11th from last season.
  • Follow this one v the inplay stats. Feyenoord were deserving of an equaliser last week but a red card ended their revival.

15:45 - Heerenveen v Vitesse - 2.1 Heerenveen

  • 8th v 6th from last season.
  • Only 1 win at home for Heerenveen v top 6 was v 1st. 0-4 Vitesse win at Heerenveen.
  • Not a match I can get a handle on. In-play stats.

SPANISH LA LIGA

17:15 - Eibar v Huesca - 1.66 Eibar

  • 9th v newly promoted from last season.
  • Eibar scored 2 goals only once last season v 12th and lower. Struggles v strugglers.
  • Huesca is another watching brief.

19:15 - Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla - 2.15 Sevilla

  • Rayo are newly promoted. Sevilla were 7th last season.
  • Only 6 away wins for Sevilla last season.

21:15 - Real Madrid v Getafe - 1.2 Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid minus their perennial top scorer will be interesting to watch.
  • Really nothing to say except watching brief to determine how the team performs minus Ronaldo. The market remains as confident as ever.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

14:00 - Elfsborg v Norrkoping - 2.3 Norrkoping

  • 3-3 and 1-0 Elfsborg last 2 head to heads.

Elfsborg (13th)

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side.
  • Not played the top 3 at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came first half.

Norrkoping (4th)

  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score only in their last match.
  • Scored in their last 8 away and conceded in their last 4 away.
  • Not played the bottom 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form with Norrkoping and the bottom 5 away but if we look at Elfsborg, we they tend not to beat the top 9.
  • Both teams could score today. Elfsborg are likely to concede first half.

14:00 - Sundsvall v Hacken - 2.15 Hacken

  • 2 2-0 Hacken wins at home in head to heads.

Sundsvall (7th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 came at home.
  • 2 home losses came v top 3. At home, losses v top 3, draws 4th-10th, wins 11th and lower.

Hacken (8th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Losses away v 3rd-6th inclusive.
  • v top 11, at least one team has scored 2 goals, in fact the opponent has scored 2 goals in 5/6 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Sundsvall's home pattern continues, then this looks like a score draw. Hacken's losses v top 6 may seep down to top 7.

16:30 - Brommapojkarna v AIK - 1.36 AIK

  • 5-1 AIK in the last head to head.

Bromma (14th)

  • 4 losses and 2 wins last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 came at home.
  • All defeats v the top 4 and quite hefty.

AIK (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.

Conclusions

  • At their best we see 3+ goals from AIK today. They certainly should be maintaining their unbeaten run.

16:30 - Djurgardens v Kalmar FF - 1.6 Djurgardens

  • 3 consecutive Djurgardens wins in the last 3 head to heads.

Djurgardens (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 came last match.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kalmar (9th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • No draw in 9 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 6 away.
  • All defeats away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • It should be advantage home team today if Kalmar cannot even beat a top 10 side away - in fact losing to all top 10 away.
  • Expect Kalmar to concede at some point. I would lay Kalmar if they score first.
  • Djurgardens tend to score a vast proportion of home goals 2nd half so note that.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Strasbourg v St Etienne - 2.6 Strasbourg

  • 2-2 and 0-1 St Etienne last 2 head to heads.
  • 15th v 7th from last season.
  • WOW! Strasbourg beat 3 of the top 5 at home last season and lost only 1 match. 0-1 loss though to St Etienne at home last season.
  • v 6th - 16th at home, Strasbourg won only 1 match. A strange side who seem to up their game v the big guns.
  • St Etienne in contrast could not beat a top 6 side. 7 wins to nil away though v 9th - 16th suggests defence was their friend.
  • The market cannot split these 2, neither can I really. If St Etienne can regain that defensive strength, then the advantage must be theirs.
  • Both sides won their openers, scoring 2 goals.

16:00 - Toulouse v Bordeaux - 2.37 Toulouse

  • 18th v 6th from last season.
  • Toulouse very lucky to avoid relegation.
  • Toulouse were ok v 12th and lower last season, losing only one match. Apart from a 3-2 win v 5th placed Rennes, Toulouse failed to beat other top 6 teams home or away.
  • 0-1 loss v Bordeaux last season at home.
  • Only 7 away wins for Bordeaux last season, 3 v the bottom 3, 2 of which were 0-1.
  • Toulouse and Bordeaux both lost their openers so little to gain from those matches.

20:00 - Nimes v Marseille - 1.72 Marseille

  • Newly promoted v 4th from last season.
  • Marseille were unbeaten away v 5th and lower last season.
  • Nimes will be the unknown here but really Marseille should eye the win.
  • Marseille scored 4 goals in their opener v Toulouse at home, and Nimes will be delighted to come out of their scrap with Angers 3-4 winners.
  • 3 Nimes goals came 76th minute +

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

13:30 - Antwerp v Club Brugge -  2.05 Club Brugge

  • Defence is Antwerp's weapon so far. 0-1, 0-0, 0-1. 2 away wins. They are yet to meet a marquee Belgian team (Standard, Club Brugge, Anderlecht) so today will be a test for Antwerp and that defence.
  • 5-2, 0-1 and 3-0 wins for Club Brugge, matching Antwerp defensively in the last 2 matches.
  • An interesting match. I must side with the nouse of Club Brugge. Do not be surprised if there is a 0-0 stalemate for a while.

17:00 - Genk v Sporting Charleroi - 1.4 Genk

  • Genk are unbeaten this season. 0-4 win, 1-1 and 0-2 win. 5 Genk goals have been scored second half.
  • Charleoi have lost their 2 home matches but won their away match this season.
  • 2-2 and 4-1 Genk in the last 2 head to heads suggests the market is right here.

19:00 - Eupen v Gent - 1.65 Gent

  • 3-0 Gent and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 3 consecutive losses for Eupen conceding 5-4-4 goals does suggest that Gent will look to win today.
  • Loss, Draw, Win for Gent this season.They have conceded in all matches.
  • Gent have been vulnerable to conceding  and if doing so today should still go on and win.

TURKISH SUPERLIG

2 of my Turkish sides to follow are playing today, Besiktas and Galatasary.

17:15 - BB Erzurumspor v Besiktas - 1.57 Besiktas

  • No head to heads. BB newly promoted.
  • Besiktas were 4th last season. 3 of 5 losses away last season came v the top 3.

17:15 - Akhisarspor v Rizespor - 2.1 Akhisar

  • Akhisar were a mixed bag last season at home. 11th placed, they only beat 3 of the top 12.
  • Rizespor are newly promoted.
  • Both sides lost their openers, scoring in each defeat.

19:45 - Alanyaspor v Ankaragucu - 1.95 Alanyaspor

  • 14th v newly promoted.
  • Alanyaspor scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match last season.5 of their 6 wins came at home v 10th and lower.
  • Ankara we will have to watch.
  • Both sides lost their openers.

19:45 - Galatasary v Goztepe - 1.25 Galatasary

  • Already Galatasary are delivering this season trading wise.
  • Unbeaten at home last season, no wonder the Champions are so short. 3-1 win v Goztepe at home last season.
  • 6th placed Goztepe did not beat a top 5 side away last seaosn.
  • 1-3 scorelines in openers, Win for Gala, loss for Goz. Galatasary conceded first, and soon equalised before halftime so look reliable sorts.