Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Apologies for live chat problems yesterday. New computer decided not to play ball. It was eventually sorted out. So today, 14:00 for a live chat webinar today.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3900462912763565314 is the link.
If it becomes quickly noticeable that there are microphone issues, then I will revert to a live video at DRT Facebook. The address is
https://www.facebook.com/groups/288630934852757/
so make sure you are a member.  I do hope that the microphone is now working as it did eventually yesterday.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:00 - Norwich City v Ipswich Town - 1.78 Norwich

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 Norwich in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is a derby of sorts.

Norwich City (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 5 wins in 8 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win in their last 5 at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 1-1-1-1-1 scored in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 7 0-1 defeats at home at halftime.
  • Only 1 loss v teams below them in the league. Ipswich are 12th.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ipswich (12th)

  • No 0-0 away.
  • No draw away v top 15 teams.
  • 8 losses and 2 wins away (2 wins v 3rd and 13th away).
  • Only 2 losses v teams below them in the league - 1 was v Norwich.
  • Opponents have scored first in 11/15 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Not for me. I thought I would research. Why not for me? An argument can be made for Norwich (only 1 loss v teams below them in the league with Ipswich 12th) Ipswich have only 2 losses v teams below them in the league.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Lille v Lyon - 1.88 Lyon

  • 2 consecutive 1-2 Lille wins in head to heads. The market thinks of revenge today.

Lille (18th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Led in only 1 match at halftime at home.
  • 3 defeats to nil v top 3 at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lyon (4th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
  • 8 wins and a 3-3 away v 8th and lower.
  • a massive 12 goals scored away in the first halfhour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Lille at home have lost to nil v the top 3. They meet a 4th placed side they beat 2-1 earlier this season at their gaff and that was a shock result.
  • Lyon if scoring 2+ goals away again will lay the foundations for a win today. But remember Lille kept them from scoring their usual 2 at home.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Marseille v Bordeaux - 1.63 Marseille

  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 in the last 4 head to heads.

Marseille (3rd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored in last 12 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 at home v 1st, 2-2 v 2nd at home and 1-3 loss v 8th - the only matches v top 9 teams at home.

Bordeaux (7th)

  • 5 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • No draw in 12 and in 10 away.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 win away v top 12 was a 0-1 v 5th. 6-2 loss away v 1st and 3-3 v 4th.

Conclusions

  • A gap in form for Marseille v top 9 muddies the water. Looking at the remaining matches, and Bordeaux's matches v top 4, I would consider backing a 2-2 and a 3-3 as a 'stretch'. 2 2-2's for Marseille v top 8, a 6-2 and 3-3 for Bordeaux away v top 4.
  • In the expectation for goals lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Stuttgart - 2.06 Augsburg

  • 1-0 Augsburg and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Augsburg (8th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 did come at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Stuttgart (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • Conceded in those matches.
  • Only scored a 2nd goal away on one occasion.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg's form is inconsistent but at home their form is recently good. Unbeaten in 6 at home now, Augsburg have scored in their last 11 home matches and play a Stuttgart conceding in their last 11 away without winning.
  • This suggests laying any Stuttgart lead. Their inability to consistently score 2 goals away compounds this.

17:00 - Mgladbach v Dortmund - 2.24 Dortmund

  • 5 consecutive Dortmund wins in head to heads were comprehensive.

Mgladbach (10th)

  • 2 wins only in their last 9 matches came within the last 3 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat Bayern at home but 0-1 v 2nd and 4th and 1-5 v 5th at home. Do keep it tight at home v top 4 albeit generally without the win.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches - the influence of new management?
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 away.
  • Only 2 away losses v 9th and 14th.
  • Scored and conceded in the 5 away matches v top 10.

Conclusions

  • The market is lukewarm towards Dortmund. They do have a Europa League match.
  • Strictly on recent form, Dortmund have the better unbeaten run and, although they may score and concede, they may not lose.
  • Mgladbach did beat Dortmund and kept it to 0-1 v 2nd and 4th which runs against the above Dortmund statement regarding both teams scoring.
  • Note Mgladbach's 2nd half concession rate if they lead or have not conceded by halftime. It may be worth keeping faith in an eventual Dortmund goal.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Torino v Juventus - 1.81 Juventus

  • A Turin derby wedged between Champions League fixtures for Juventus.
  • Juventus tend to get the best of the Turin derby.

Torino (9th)

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches saw 8 draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v top 4 teams.
  • 10 goals scored in the 15 mins before halftime at home.

Juventus (2nd)

  • 10 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • There is probably no better time to take on Juventus than when they are Champions League distracted but historically, Torino simply do not win.
  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches is impressive for Torino but their losses tend to come v top 4 and they had 8 draws in those 14 matches.
  • Expect Juventus not to lose here. Check team news in case key players are rested with the away match v Tottenham up and coming.

14:00 - Benevento v Crotone - 2.74 Benevento

  • You know the drill by now. 2.74? The market has not got a clue how this match will turn out. This being Benevento I will research.
  • 2-0 Crotone the only time these 2 have met in the top flight.

Benevento (20th)

  • 2 wins in their last 3 at home so should be confident today.
  • Let's not mention that those were the only 2 wins all season in a season of all defeats bar 3.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 home losses v 16th and 18th.
  • 9 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Crotone (17th)

  • 3 consecutive 1-1's.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2, and with good reason. Both sides will know that fellow strugglers present a good opportunity for 3 points.
  • I would note the 2nd half scoring patterns for both sides. So, you'll know what to do if 0-0 at halftime!. I would even consider a 2-1/1-2 2nd half. Speculative I know but look at Benevento's 2 1-2 losses v 16th and 18th and Crotone's 3 consecutive 1-1 scorelines.

14:00 - Napoli v SPAL - 1.18 Napoli

  • 1-0 and 2-3 Napoli in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is a match for Napoli between Europa League matches.

Napoli (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 8 consecutive wins, 4 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 at home.
  • 2 0-0's and 20 wins v teams 4th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored v bottom 3 teams.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

SPAL (18th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 13 and last 11 away.
  • 6 1-0 defeats away at halftime.
  • Only 1 loss away came last match.
  • That was the only match they scored 2 goals in away.
  • 4-2-3-0-2-2 conceded away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • Napoli should remain unaffected mid-Europa League matches. They are playing a side which tends to concede 2+ goals v top 7. Napoli tend to score 2+ goals v bottom 3.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given SPAL's 6 1-0 losses away at halftime.

19:45 - Milan v Sampdoria - 1.78 Milan

  • 2 consecutive Sampdoria wins in head to heads.

Milan (7th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • All defeats bar a win v Lazio v top 8.

Sampdoria (8th)

  • Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win latest.
  • Beat Roma last away match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3-2 away v 1st, 3rd, 0-1 v 4th (last match), 2-2 v 9th away.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Milan break through the top 8 with a win. Sampdoria break through v top 9 away with a 0-1 win v Roma. Which is the more impressive?
  • Milan have really improved of late and that defeat of Lazio catches the eye.
  • A feeling both teams could score today and I would be keener to lay Sampdoria if Samp scored first.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Roda v Utrecht - 1.77 Utrecht

  • Utrecht are unbeaten in 3 head to heads with wins in the last 2.

Roda (16th)

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of the last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches and last 8 away.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side.
  • Opponents scored first in 8/11 at home.

Utrecht (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • 4 draws and 2 wins last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Have lost away to 13th, 15th, and 17th and see who they play today!

Conclusions

  • Solid Utrecht form and it looks like coincidence that they have lost to the teams around Roda in the league. Remember, recently, only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • Roda are conceding readily and are certainly layable if leading today.I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Utrecht.

15:45 - Zwolle v Ajax - 1.41 Ajax

  • Ajax have tended to win the head to heads.

Zwolle (5th)

  • 4 losses in the last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home and only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side.

Ajax (2nd)

  • 10 wins in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 12 of their last 13 matches.
  • No defeat in 10 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All wins v top 5.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form it looks as if Ajax may concede but simply outscore Zwolle today who have scored in their last 5 at home but not beaten a top 7 side.
  • Ajax are tending to score 2 goals at least recently.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:15 - Hamilton v Rangers - 1.42 Rangers

  • 4 consecutive Rangers wins ends with a Hamilton 0-2 win in head to heads.

Hamilton (11th)

  • 6 losses in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 6 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 at home.
  • No win at home v top 8 4-2-4 conceded at home v top 3.

Rangers (3rd)

  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away. 6 1-0 leads at halftime away.
  • 2 away losses were 2-1 but 4 wins out of 4 away v bottom 3 sides.

Conclusions

  • Rangers are likely to lead at halftime on form. Rangers are likely to score given Hamilton's  only 3 clean sheets and Rangers' wins v bottom 3 sides suggests they will reverse the Hamilton win of last time.
  • Hamilton have gone cold at home so this is the time for Rangers to strike.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Real Sociedad v Levante - 1.59 Sociedad

  • 1-1 and 3-0 Levante in the last 2 head to heads.

Real Sociedad (14th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Between 10th-17th at home, only 1 game played so a gap in form there.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Levante (17th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3-1-2-2-2-3 goals conceded recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 15th and lower. 0-0, 0-2, 2-2, 0-0.
  • No game played away 9th-14th.

Conclusions

  • There are gaps in form here for both sides which muddies the waters.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based more on Sociedad. 2 goals + in total expected in Sociedad home matches.
  • Levante are conceding 2+ recently and that may be their undoing today. Yes, they are unbeaten v 15th and lower but it seems their recent concession rate is the negative that makes me want to side with Sociedad not to lose.

15:15 - Atl Madrid v Atletico Bilbao - 1.46 Atl Madrid

  • 3-1 and 1-2 Atl Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 wins in 6 home matches.
  • 10 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins v 11th and lower at home.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atl Bilbao (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches sees 8 draws.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 3 losses out of 3 v top 3.

Conclusions

  • Extremely strong 2nd half scoring for Atl Madrid so note that of 0-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • Atl Bilbao have had a lot of draws and on that basis I would lay Bilbao if Bilbao scored first.
  • 0-0 at halftime would not surprise.