Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you on Telegram throughout. I will do a live chat webinar at 13:30. No Dutch Eredivisie today but a 13:30 start will capture the Arsenal match and then on into the Italian and French 14:00 kick offs.

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 18th April 2021

Time: Apr 18, 2021 01:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83339220911?pwd=OGwvV05XZ3h6MnZjNjljSVYzQi94Zz09

Meeting ID: 833 3922 0911

Passcode: 377567


English Premier League

13:30 - Arsenal v Fulham - 1.75 Arsenal

  • I won't research a post-Europa League and London Derby match. Formlines can be thrown out of the window.
  • Acknowledge who the market fancies and use the in-play stats as a confirmation tool.

16:00 - Man Utd v Burnley - 1.33 Man Utd

Man Utd - 2nd

  • Only 1 defeat since 7th November 2020.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Have conceded in their last 2 wins.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 11.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 10 wins, a draw and a loss home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 15 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Burnley - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 came away.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss away.
  • 4/4 defeats away v the top 5.
  • 11 goals in Burnley away matches first 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Contrasting recent form for both sides. I like Man Utd's front line and their form. Watch out for potential team changes for United post Europa League. United have conceded in 2 consecutive wins and I would welcome a Burnley opener.
  • United are strong end of match goal scorers. Burnley away matches see quick goals.

English Championship

12:00 - Rotherham v Birmingham - 2.70 Rotherham

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Birmingham away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 16/20 away matches. Rotherham have conceded first in 10/11 home matches.

15:00 - Coventry v Barnsley - 2.15 Barnsley

  • 1st half outcome: Coventry have drawn the first half in 8/12 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Coventry home matches. Barnsley have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.

English FA Cup

18:30 - Leicester v Southampton - 1.95 Leicester

  • FA Cup Semi-Final.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Osasuna v Elche - 1.95 Osasuna

Osasuna - 14th

  • 3 consecutive 0-0 draws ended with a 1-2 win last match.
  • Failed to score last 4 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • Draws at home v 4/5 sides 15th and lower.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Elche - 18th

  • Scored and conceded in 6/7, winning just once.
  • 7 defeats in 8 away.
  • No win in 14 away.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 11 away.
  • Only wins away v 19th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Osasuna ended a 0-0 sequence. Now they must end a run of 4 at home without scoring. They play an Elche side who cannot beat any side above them in the league. Osasuna may fancy their chances but need to break their scoreless home sequence.

13:00 - Real Sociedad v Sevilla - 2.60 Sevilla

  • 1st half outcome: Real Sociedad have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 Real Sociedad such matches. Sevilla have lost 13/19 away matches against top-six teams.

15:15 - Alaves v Huesca - 2.40 Alaves

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Alaves home matches against bottom-six teams and in 9/15 Huesca away matches. Huesca have conceded first in 7/12 away matches.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Eibar - 1.44 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • All wins at home v 12th and lower and home and away v 17th and lower.

Eibar - 20th

  • No win in 13 and in 10 away.
  • Conceded in those.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 2.
  • 1-2 last head to head.

Conclusions

  • Must wins hereonin for Atl Madrid to maintain top spot. Eibar are poor away from home and concede so an ideal post Champions League bright spot for Atl Madrid.

17:30 - Cadiz v Celta Vigo - 2.15 Celta Vigo

Cadiz - 12th

  • 2 consecutive wins. 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • Only 2 home wins v the top 17, 2 2-1 wins.

Celta Vigo - 11th

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • 2 recent wins came at home.
  • 2 consecutive away wins scoring 3 goals.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 14.
  • 12/18 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Tight in the league. Poor form each. Only 2 home wins v top 17 plays only 1 away win v top 14. Leave this to the in-play stats.

17:30 - Real Betis v Valencia - 1.91 Real Betis

Real Betis - 6th

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Win, Win, Draw at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home none at fulltime.
  • All home wins v 9th - 19th.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

Valencia - 13th

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1 v 5th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Real Betis are in good unbeaten form. Consider laying Valencia if they score first as only 2 away wins were 0-1.
  • Solid home winning form for Betis.

20:00 - Getafe v Real Madrid - 1.67 Real Madrid

Getafe - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 0-0 v 1st and 1-0 win v 3rd at home.
  • Failed to score in 7/8 matches v the top 5.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 away.
  • No defeat in 10 and in 10 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 away win came v 13th.

Conclusions

  • Getafe have trouble even scoring v the top 5 so should offer little resistance v a flying Real Madrid side, through in the Champions league as well.

20:00 - Levante v Villarreal - 2.05 Villareal

Levante - 9th

  • 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 5th-15th.

Villareal - 7th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches. Loss v a solid defensive Osasuna saw a winning trade at 0-1 to 1-1.
  • 2 consecutive away wins scoring 3 goals.
  • Scored in their last 5 and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 away loss v 5th and lower.
  • 14 goals scored away first half hour of matches.
  • 18/22 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Villareal were poor v a very defensive Osasuna last match but are full of goals away and also meet a Levante gone off the boil of late, having trouble even scoring. Post Europa League here, a hope Villareal are not fatigued. Their away for v 5th and lower away is solid.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Dortmund v Werder Bremen - 1.40 Dortmund

Dortmund - 5th

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Scored in their last 26 matches and last 13 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower.
  • 21/28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen - 13th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side away.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund are free from the Champions League now. They are great 2nd half goalscorers so remember that.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Dortmund score 2nd half goals.

17:00 - Mainz v Hertha Berlin - 2.5 Mainz

  • Match outcome: FSV Mainz 05 have lost 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have conceded first in 8/13 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Hertha Berlin away matches against bottom-six teams.

Italian Serie A

11:30 - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.50 AC Milan

AC Milan - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came at home v Napoli.
  • Poor at home recently, Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Genoa - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 9 came away v Parma.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6, winning only one match.
  • Conceded last 8.
  • 3-0 and 3-1 away losses v the top 3.
  • Failed to score in 4/5 away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • It is all must win from now on for AC Milan with matches running out and an 11 point gap to 1st placed Inter Milan.
  • AC Milan are unbeaten at home v 6th and lower.

14:00 - Atalanta v Juventus - 2.45 Atalanta

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/10 Atalanta home matches and in 10/19 Juventus away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 Atalanta home matches against top-six teams.

14:00 - Bologna v Spezia - 2.00 Bologna

Bologna - 11th

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses recently.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • 15 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded last 6.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Spezia - 14th

  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 6 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, 1 at fulltime.
  • Sporadic away wins v top 12 v 5th, 8th and 12th.
  • 26/30 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Spezia are scoring and conceding and with Bologna only just losing 1-0 in 3 of their last 4 defeats, it does suggest to lay Spezia if Spezia score first but cover the 0-1.
  • Spezia concede a high% 2nd half so if leading first half or if not conceding first half, may find themselves vulnerable 2nd half.

17:00 - Torino v Roma - 2.00 Roma

Torino - 17th

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches, 2 were 1-0 only.
  • Only 1 home win came recently, a 3-2 v Sassuolo.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.
  • 2+ goals conceded at home in all bar 1 match v the top 11.

Roma - 7th

  • Only 1 win in 4.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower.
  • Failed to score away v 16th and 19th.
  • 17/24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Torino are leaking 2+ goals at home v the top 11 which must be a concern today. Roma have been in inconsistent form away from home and have been conceding 2 goals themselves, and failed to score v 16th and 19th away (coincidence or pattern?).
  • I think Torino's consistent concession of 2+ goals at home v the top 11 is the clincher for me to oppose them today.

19:45 - Napoli v Inter Milan - 2.30 Inter Milan

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/16 Napoli home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 8/12 Napoli such matches. Inter Milan have scored first in 15/19 away matches.