An enjoyable (if late!) live chat last night. Do remember I 'stretch' in my correct score picks. 0-3 Inter I went for. It ended 0-2. 1-3 Barca I went for. It ended 1-2. There are many more angles (and more conservative angles) than the ones I put up. Although generally correct, you have the option of going safer (i.e. 0-2 Inter Milan and 1-2 Barcelona as more easily-achieved correct scores).
The 0-0 scorelines at halftime which we decided to take on in the 2nd half had pretty much a 100% strike rate yesterday. More options? Try over 2.5 goals if you see a 0-0 at halftime between 2 teams with a reputation for scoring and conceding goals.
I am keen to do a live chat today. 13:30 looks a good start. That is 22:30 here so is manageable for me, as long as I am not out (Aussie sister's birthday). I will try my best and begin tweeting at 22:30 or 23:00. Italian Seria A looks manageable. I like the German Bundesliga today too. Do please read the research and make notes yourself. I cannot remind you constantly on Twitter of the angles I relay here. I talk about the likes of Werder Bremen - goal before halftime and both teams scoring. That came in without any prompting or reminders from me at the live chat. See you at 22:30 - 23:00, pending any invites out for Birthday cake et al!
13:30 - Chelsea v Arsenal - 1.81 Chelsea
- The home team has won the last 2 home head to heads.
- Chelsea obvious favourites today given the shambles that is a Wenger Arsenal.
- Both teams have scored in 3 Chelsea matches.Chelsea have scored 2 goals in every match to date.
- Chelsea have not had a 0-0 at halftime yet.
- Arsenal are their typical selves away from home i.e. they lose and tend to lose to top 6 sides away from home.
- I do not expect Arsenal to win but do note that this is a London derby and surprises can occur.
- If Arsenal score first, Chelsea look equipped to reply and if Chelsea win you sense it would be a 2-1 kind of scoreline.
- Will we see another Chelsea match without a 0-0 at halftime?
16:00 - Man Utd v Everton - 1.36 Man Utd
- Everton are not normally this "written-off" in a North west derby.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in Premiership head to heads saw Ibrahimovic score the United goals. In Lukaku, United have an able replacement.
- In the last 2 head to heads, there were 89th and 90th minute penalties. Is this a trait of this North West Derby? Pressure at the end of the match may lead to a pen?
- United are full of goals, scoring 2 at least each match. Their 2-2 with Stoke was a case of Champions League distraction. United should have won.
- 2 clean sheets at home is the likely United foundation today.
- Everton are labouring up front after losing some striker-or-other. I forget his name! Everton have scored 1-1-0-0- so far.
- Which will it be from Everton? The 1-1 v City or the 3-0 2-0 losses v Chelsea and Tottenham. I rather think the latter given the United clean sheetery at home.
- Given head to heads, an Everton goal would not surprise and if they score first, United are highly likely to equalise.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
14:00 - Amiens v Marseille - 2.1 Marseille
- Newly promoted Amiens are given some small chance by the market today who don't seem overly enamoured by Marseille.
- No draw yet for Amiens sees 3 defeats and now 2 wins. Defeats were to nil.
- Wins were to nil too.No both teams to score has not occured yet for Amiens.
- No 0-0 at halftime yet for Amiens.
- It all started well for Marseille, unbeaten in 3, but now they have conceded 9 goals in 2 matches. Is this a sign of something terminal?
- Marseille have scored in all 5 matches so far.
- No strong angles at this stage as I wait for Marseille to show their true selves.
- If you want an angle or 2, then Amiens keep avoiding draws and have not had a 0-0 at halftime yet.
16:00 - Angers v Metz - 1.55 Angers
- 2-0 Metz and 2-1 Angers in the last 2 head to heads.
- Angers have won 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Metz have lost 6/9 away matches against top-half teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Metz away matches against top-half teams.
- All defeats for Metz this season and they failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Angers are unbeaten. 4 score draws though!
- Angers could end their score draw sequence if Metz continue to struggle infront of goal.
- Angers are adept at equalising so note that if somehow Metz score.
16:00 - Rennes v Nice - 2.4 Rennes
20:00 - Paris St-G v Lyon - 1.16 PSG
- Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads. 3 PSG 2-1 results suggests it is usually tight pre-Mbappe and pre-Neymar.
- Both sides are unbeaten this season.
- PSG has scored 3 goals at least in each of their last 4 matches.
- 1-2 and 0-0 Lyon last 2 away matches.
- PSG are expected to score 3 goals again today despite head to heads saying this will be a bit tighter.
- Lyon have had 2 0-0's at halftime away so do not despair if 0-0 at halftime. I would back 2-1, 3-0, any other home score if 0-0 at halftime.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - Sassuolo v Juventus - 1.45 Juventus
- 3 consecutive Juventus wins in head to heads.
- Sassuolo have conceded first in 7/11 home matches while Juventus have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- Juventus have won by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 3+ goals scored by Juventus this season in 3 wins sees them in good shape up front.
- Dybala and Higuan are the 2 and if either is absent, their attack is blunted.
- 0-0-1 scored by Sassuolo. Nowhere near enough required against a Juventus likely to score 2 goals at least.
- I do expect a comfortable enough afternoon for Juventus who, as I say, should have at least 2 goals in them.
14:00 - Napoli v Benevento - 1.13 Napoli
- Newly promoted Benevento are not given a look in here.
- 3 consecutive defeats Benevento. The last 2 were 1-0.
- Napoli have scored 3 goals in each of their 3 matches. Note the last 6 goals Napoli scored all came 2nd half.
- So, yet again, fear not with a 0-0 at halftime.
- Benevento may set up to frustrate (see Crotone and Getafe last night) but eventually capitulate.
14:00 - Spal v Cagliari - 2.42 Spal
- Rough start for Cagliari with 2 losses away at Juve and AC Milan.
- Draw for Spal v Lazio, 3-2 win v Udinese and 2-0 loss to Inter.
- No strong angles yet.
14:00 - Torino v Sampdoria - 1.74 Torino
- 2 score draws and a 2-0 Samp win in the last 2 head to heads.
- A draw and 2 wins for Torino this season. Their wins were to nil. They have only conceded the one goal.
- 2 2-1 wins for Sampdoria.
- Very few matches to work with. 2 inform sides. Note Torino have scored in the 88th and 90th minutes last 2 matches.
- It is a "clutching at straws" angle but if Samp are leading post 85th minute, it will cost you very little in liability to lay them.
17:00 - Chievo v Atalanta - 2.58 Atalanta
19:45 - Genoa v Lazio - 2 Lazio
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
11:00 - Alaves v Villarreal - 2.56 Villareal
- Alaves are yet to score in 3 defeats. Villareal have 2 defeats and a win. The market cannot split these 2 and I will follow the market and sit this one out (or at the very least play via in-play stats).
15:15 - Girona v Sevilla - 2.38 Sevilla
- Girona are given maximum respect here in their first season in Spanish Primera Liga. Sevilla are an established top 10 La Liga side.
- Girona drew 2-2 at home to Atl Madrid (the match which nearly netted me £5K but I don't want to talk about that!!). They beat Malaga 1-0 and lost away to Ath Bilbao.
- Sevilla drew 1-1 and won their next 2 matches keeping clean sheets.
- I do feel the "nouse" of Sevilla should be too much for Girona today. I will enter this match expecting Sevilla not to lose and react accordingly.
17:30 - Las Palmas v Athletic Bilbao - 2.66 Ath Bilbao
- The market is immediately off-putting.
- 3-1 Las Palmas and 5-0 Ath Bilbao in the last 2 head to heads.
- Las Palmas have conceded first in 9/11 home matches against top-six teams and they have lost 6/9 such matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Ath. Bilbao away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Ath Bilbao are yet to concede a goal this season in a 0-0 and 2 wins. Las Palmas have 2 heavy defeats and a 1-3 away win v Malaga.
- I would have gone for Ath Bilbao today but the market is very off-putting and cannot split the sides.
- There has yet to be a 0-0 at halftime in these 2 teams' 3 matches this season. Is this enough for us to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? A very small sample of matches.
19:45 - Sociedad v Real Madrid - 1.72 Real Madrid
- Sociedad may be the surprise package this Spanish Primera Liga season.
- Real Madrid though have scored 3 goals at least in 4 of the last 5 head to heads so enjoy meeting a fellow real.
- Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime yet so, unless 2 big clubs cancel each other out, we may see a profit laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Sociedad are 3 from 3 but conceded 2 goals in their away wins.
- Real Madrid are shooting themselves in the foot. A win and 2 score draws so far this season.
- The score draws though do signal an ability to equalise if conceding first so note that.
- I would chalk the last score draw down to pre Champions League distractions.
- I would look to lay the late score draw today as these sequences must necessarily end for a Real Madrid side already precious points behind both Sociedad and Barcelona.
- This really is a tough fixture for Real Madrid but it is a match they must win. Enter this match from a trading perspective with that in mind and with the score draws ending.
12:30 - Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin - 1.75 Hoffenheim
- 3 consecutive Hoff wins should see them confident today when meeting Hertha.
- Hoffenheim have scored first in 11/12 home matches while Hertha Berlin have lost the first half in 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.
- Hertha Berlin have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.
- 2 wins to nil at home for the Hoff, includes a win over a pre-Champions League - much-changed- Bayern Munich.
- 2 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
- Win, Loss, Draw Hertha this season. Although Hoff are not quite (for me) at Dortmund's level of dependability, Dortmund's 2-0 win v Hertha is an able template for what may occur today.
- I am with the Hoff today who look in good nick so will lay Hertha if Hertha scored first.
14:30 - Leverkusen v Freiburg - 1.45 Leverkusen
- 1-1 and 2-1 Freiburg in the last 2 head to heads.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Leverkusen home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/8 SC Freiburg away matches against bottom-six teams.
- There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Leverkusen home matches.
- 2 0-0's at home for Freiburg but a 4-1 loss away to Leipzig where they kept Leipzig goal less til halftime.
- 2-2 at home for Leverkusen, 3-1 defeats away v Bayern and Mainz.
- Both teams have scored in Leverkusen's 3 matches. Leverkusen are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
- Only 3 matches to work with. Not enough really to be definitive. Freiburg have good head to head record but are written off today.
- I personally feel Leverkusen are having problems infront of goal and 1.45 odds is far too short. I may even lay them if they score first to attain a low odds lay. When Leverkusen scored 2 goals v the Hoff, one of the goals was a penalty.
17:00 - Dortmund v FC Koln - 1.27 Dortmund
- 3 consecutive head to head draws, 2 were score draws and one was a 0-0.
- Koln have scored only 1 goal this season. Dortmund have kept 3 clean sheets. Their 0-0 last match needs a context. It was the usual story of a Champions League side under-performing the match before a mid week CL match.
- Koln look blunt and Dortmund with 3 and 2 goals prior to the 0-0 should look to win this match comfortably.
- Dortmund do tend to score before halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, particularly if the match is 0-0 after 20 minutes.
13:30 - Twente v Utrecht - 1.87 Utrecht
- 1-1 and 3-0 Utrecht in the last 2 head to heads.
- Twente are in trouble. 4 consecutive defeats, failing to score in their last 2 defeats.
- 3 wins to nil and a loss to Groningen for Utrecht.
- Twente may wriggle out of this slump. But if they cannot score more than 1 goal, then they are opposable if scoring first.
13:30 - ADO Den Haag v Ajax - 1.29 Ajax
- 5 consecutive Ajax wins in head to heads.
- After a shock defeat to start the season, Ajax are back in form with 3 consecutive wins, scoring 2 goals minimum. They are also posting good shots stats.
- ADO are yet to keep a clean sheet. 3 losses and a win for ADO this season. 2 consecutive home defeats conceding 3 and 2 goals.
- There is nothing in ADO's form to suggest laying Ajax today.
15:45 - Vitesse v VVV - 1.69 Vitesse
- These 2 last met in 2013.
- 3 wins and a loss for Vitesse this season.They have scored 3 goals minimum.
- VVV have lost only to Ajax this season.
- Both teams have scored in VVV's 2 away matches. Lay VVV if VVV score first relying on an apparent sturdy Vitesse attack.
- Will Vitesse score 3 goals again today? I do note VVV only lost to Ajax so might be sturdy?
- Inplay stats will reveal all but I am slightly biased towards Vitesse today.
15:45 - PSV v Feyenoord - 2.16 PSV
- This match is realistically too tight to call. It is a big Dutch derby and could go any way.