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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 17, 2021

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and Telegram throughout the day. Just a short live chat webinar today as there isn't really the consistent volume of matches. 13:45 start at DRT Facebook will probably go till 16:00 and then transfer to Telegram.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Aston Villa v Everton - 2.20 Everton

Aston Villa - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came away last match v Man Utd.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches but did concede v Chelsea and Man Utd.
  • Beat 2nd at home and 3rd away - not played 4th, 5th or 6th yet.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Everton - 4th

  • 5 wins in 6 matches. Loss was a 0-1 v West Ham.
  • 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 away.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored last 6 away.

Conclusions

  • You never know what you'll get from Villa but Everton clearly are on a defensively strong run, not conceding 2 goals. Add to that, 5 wins in 6 matches, And Villa's conceding v Chelsea and Man Utd and I suspect Everton may just edge this match.
  • Villa are strong 2nd half scorers. Note that they may be layable if scoring first if Everton can keep these teams consistently to one goal max.

14:00 - Sheffield Utd v Tottenham - 1.50 Tottenham

Sheffield Utd - 20th

  • Sole win came via a penalty and a red card to the opponent last match.
  • That was the only clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/9 home matches.
  • 100% defeats v the top 14.

Tottenham - 6th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came v Leeds.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away v 9th and lower. 0-1 wins away v 16th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • An obvious tactic it seems from the 'Special' One? Look at the inability to score that 2nd goal away v 9th and lower. Tottenham aiming for a 0-1?
  • Sheff Utd are poor goal scorers, needing the luck of a red card and penalty to get their sole win. I could see, perhaps, a 1-1 as best case for Sheff Utd today.
  • Will Tottenham break that 1 goal only habit v 9th and lower away from home?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

16:30 - Liverpool v Man Utd - 1.95 Liverpool

  • Far too high profile a match for me to attempt a pre-match angle. In-play stats.

19:15 - Man City v Crystal Palace - 1.15 Man City

Man City - 3rd

  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 5 wins to nil and 2 draws at home last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime home and away.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home, led at halftime in 5/8 at home.
  • 5 wins to nil and a 1-1 at home v 11th and lower.
  • 11/15 goals scored at home came first half.

Crystal Palace - 13th

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets includes a 0-0 v Arsenal.
  • Failed to score last 2 away.
  • Only 1 win v the top 17 away came v 1st! Not played 2nd-6th away.
  • 9/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 5 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Man City were these odds mid week and did get that goal before halftime that we expect of sub 1.2 favourites. Will they do it again today? Check out the in-play stats as Palace are on a 2 match clean sheet run.
  • Man City at their best will win to nil today, so if Palace score, they are unlikely to score that 2nd goal.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.30 Rangers

Motherwell - 9th

  • No win in 10 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 at home.
  • 6 goals conceded at home last 15 mins of matches.
  • 1-5 and 3-1 losses v Rangers this season.

Rangers - 1st

  • 15 consecutive wins, 8 away.
  • No defeat.
  • Scored in their last 19 and last 10 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads are emphatic. Both teams may score but Rangers win! Rangers have 2 goals in them recently away from home.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Freiburg - 1.22 Bayern Munich

  • Only 2 defeats for Bayern came away from home including last match. They don't tend to lose 2 consecutive matches.
  • They scored and conceded in 5/6 at home without losing.
  • Bayern have scored in every match.
  • They have scored and conceded last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Bayern.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Freiburg are in excellent form. 2 draws and 5 wins in their last 7 matches. Draw, Win, Win away.
  • 4-3-5 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored by Freiburg last 6 matches.
  • Notably, 3/3 defeats for Freiburg v the top 4.
  • Angles? The latter stat rings out. Freiburg, despite excellent form, have 3/3 defeats v the top 4 BUT you cannot discount a momentum-improving performance today v a Spluttering Bayern who have scored and conceded last 10 matches. Watch out for that pattern.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.

17:00 - Frankfurt v Schalke - 1.50 Frankfurt

Frankfurt - 9th

  • Only 2 defeats came v Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 5 draws and 2 wins at home.
  • Failed to score only v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/7 at home.
  • 6/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Schalke - 17th

  • Only 1 win came last match, at home v the Hoff.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 away, conceding in their last 7 away.
  • No win home and away v the top 13.

Conclusions

  • What do we make of Schalke's 4 goal haul v the Hoff? Because on seasonal form, we are with Frank throughout here. If Frank's home patterns continue, they may concede first but not lose.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.55 Napoli

Napoli - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches came away.
  • 1-1 and 1-2 loss v 10 men last 2 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Scored last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower was that last loss at home v Spezia.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 13/19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came away v Lazio latest.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only away win was a 0-3 v Juventus but hugely affected by a Juventus red card.
  • That win was one amongst all defeats away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina's loss record v the top 8 away is compelling. Ignore the Juventus win, red card affected. The concern is with Napoli who lost 1-2 v 10 man Spezia at home latest. Poor stuff, that followed a 1-1 draw at home v Torino. This is poor.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding for Napoli. They join the list of untrustworthy, despite a win last match v a poor Udinese.

14:00 - Crotone v Benevento - 2.37 Benevento

  • 2 newly promoted sides will be eyeing 3 points.
  • Only 2 wins for Crotone.3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Crotone.
  • Both teams have scored last 5 matches for Crotone, who have conceded last 8 matches at home.
  • 20th v 10th. Only 2 wins all season for Crotone came at home v 14th and 19th.
  • Benevento are clearly in the better form season long. Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Win away for Benevento latest.
  • Against 11th and lower away for Benvento, 4 wins and a 0-0.
  • Angles? Well, Crotone beat the other newly promoted side Spezia very easily at home but for me Benevento have settled into Seria A life far better and their record v 11th and lower will give them confidence in adding to their 4 wins and a 0-0 away v 11th and lower.
  • As ever, newly promoted sides will feel they can beat fellow newly promoted sides.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Parma - 1.70 Sassuolo

Sassuolo - 7th

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches , 2 of those wins came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 2 defeats at home came v the top 2.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 2-3-4 goals scored at home v the bottom 4.
  • 10/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half. 7 goals scored at home came last 15 mins.

Parma - 19th

  • 3 draws and 5 losses last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win away.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away. Conceded last 8 away.
  • Not played 6th-12th away.
  • Only 1 away win v 17th.
  • 7/10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not the best recent form for Sassuolo but they play a team in the bottom 4, and v bottom 4 at home they have scored 2-3-4 goals so will have some confidence today.
  • Gap in form for Parma, not playing 6th-12th away but with only 1 win away, I feel this is Sassuolo's match to lose. They do tend to score 2nd half so remember that, and score a lot last 15 mins of home matches.

17:00 - Atalanta v Genoa - 1.22 Atalanta

  • Atalanta are best evaluated on their post European club competition form of 4 consecutive home wins amongst a run of 7 without defeat.
  • They scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 of those recent matches. They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 7 consecutive matches with a goal at least before halftime.
  • Genoa have only 3 wins, 2 wins within the last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets for Genoa.
  • Genoa have not played the top 5 away (Atalanta are 5th) but have not beaten the top 12 away.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away by Genoa came 2nd half.
  • Angles? Atalanta have consistently scored 2+ goals and that fits in with a 1.22 quote as is the expectation for a goal at least before halftime albeit Genoa have conceded 10/14 goals conceded away 2nd half.

19:45 - Inter Milan v Juventus - 2.45 Inter Milan

  • Another high profile clash I am not going to research pre-match. I will react via the in-play stats. Juve's recent 1-3 away win v AC Milan has me slightly favouring them.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

13:00 - Olympiacos v PAS Giannina - 1.18 Olympiakos

  • 1st v 11th.

Olympiakos - 1st

  • Reliable team who came from behind to draw in a tough away match v PAOK latest.
  • Unbeaten.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 19/24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PAS Giannina - 11th

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score last 2 away.
  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 away v top 8, conceding 2 goals at least.
  • 8/9 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • 9/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Firmly with Oly today who should have 2 goals in the locker, even if PAS might keep them quiet first half.

15:15 - OFI Crete v PAOK - 1.53 PAOK

OFI Crete - 7th

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • No draw in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4/4 losses v the top 4, failing to score in defeat to 1st and 2nd at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least at home v top 10.

PAOK - 3rd

  • Led v Olympiakos latest before being pegged back.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away latest.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side away (4 matches).
  • 7 goals scored away in the last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • PAOK's odds look a little short given they have failed to beat a top 9 side away from home but then OFI have trouble even scoring at home v the top 2 and that might reveal the market confidence.
  • OFI also concede 2 goals all too readily at home v the top 10.
  • Remember PAOK's late goal scoring pattern if it is tight coming to the 75th minute.

15:15 - Volos v Lamia - 2.00 Volos

Volos - 8th

  • Only 1 win in 11 came at home and was a 1-0.
  • 2 consecutive losses did come away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 1-2 win v Lamia earlier this season.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lamia - 14th

  • Only 1 win came at home.
  • 5 losses without scoring in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away losses, failing to score last 3 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Despite Volos being in poor form, They are unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower and beat Lamia 1-2 earlier this season.
  • Lamia are in poor form and 4/4 losses away and there is nothing really in their form to suggest a reversal today.

19:30 - AEK Athens v Atromitos - 1.50 AEK Athens

AEK Athens - 3rd

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches which came away from home.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • 1-0 loss to Atromitos last head to head.
  • Draw draw loss v the top 5 at home.
  • 9 goals scored at home last half hour of matches.

Atromitos - 7th

  • Win, Draw, Win last 3 matches, the wins coming at home.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Best case for Atromitos for me is a 0-1 win so lay them if they score first but cover the 0-1.
  • They concede the vast majority of the goals 2nd half. AEK Athens score last 1/2 hour of matches too so we may see an exciting 2nd half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

13:30 - VVV Venlo v Heerenveen - 2.16 Heerenveen

VVV Venlo - 14th

  • Only 4 wins, but 2 consecutive wins.
  • Both teams to score came in 13 matches this season.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 13 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 home matches.
  • Wins at home came v 12th and lower.

Heerenveen - 8th

  • Both teams scored in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 3 score draws and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 and last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
  • 1-0 win v VVV last time these 2 met.
  • 9/12 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Heerenveen have an air of unreliability about them of late but they are unbeaten away v 9th and lower. They have failed to score only twice and tend to score quickly in away matches.
  • Venlo are yet to keep a clean sheet so remember that and all wins tend to come v 12th and lower.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - FC Groningen v FC Twente - 2.42 Groningen

  • 2.42 the favourite. Leave this to the in-play stats.

15:45 - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.47 Ajax

Ajax - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 score draws in 3 matches.
  • Impressive 1-3 win v Twente latest.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored in their last 12 and last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • Led at halftime in 6/8 at home.
  • Losses have come away v 6th and home v 7th.

Feyenoord - 4th

  • Only 1 defeat came away v Vitesse, and crucially, the market flagged it up as a possible toughie for Feyenoord....similar to today's market?
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 10 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • This will be a tester for both of these sides who don't tend to lose. Ajax have not played 3rd or 4th yet but losses came v 6th and 7th. Feyenoord have not really played the top 4 but did lose to Vitesse.
  • The market was accurate in telling us that Feyenoord would struggle v Vitesse. So the market has a similar prognosis for Feyenoord today. That is how I will enter this match.
  • Ajax have yet to have a 0-0.