I personally missed out on some profit, Dundee come back and Leipzig correct score 1-3 to name but 2. I hope to be a bit more on the ball this live chat today. Please remember that Sunday live chats tend to be slower.
14:30 - Frankfurt v Mgladbach - 2.36 Frankfurt
- Only 3 defeats for Frankfurt since 30th September.
- 3 consecutive draws.
- They failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for Frankfurt.
- Frankfurt are yet to beat a top 5 side.and scored and conceded in 3/4 at home. They play 3rd today.
- 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Mgladbach lost their last home match, they tend to lose away.4 away defeats.
- 2 consecutive away wins for Mgladbach.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 away for Mgladbach.
- Mgladbach failed to score in only 3 away matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Draw away v top 7. Frankfurt are 6th.
- Frankfurt cannot beat the top 5 and play 3rd today. Mgladbach though have only 1 win away v top 7. They play 6th.
- Not for me. In-play stats will reveal all.
17:00 - Bayer Leverkusen v Dusseldorf - 1.47 Leverkusen
- 5 wins in 6 matches for Bayer.
- They scored 3+ goals in 4 of those 5 matches.
- Bayer failed to score in only 4 matches.
- All defeats for Bayer came v the top 9. Dusseldorf are 12th.
- Dusseldorf have only 1 loss in 7 so have really surprised. Unbeaten in 3 away with 2 wins and a draw.
- Only 4 clean sheets though.
- No win away v the top 10 is a concern for Dusseldorf who meet 6th today.
- A feeling that if Dusseldorf cannot score that 2nd goal away v the top 10 then they should not win today. Bayer have been knocking in the goals.
ITALIAN SERIA A
11:30 - SPAL v Fiorentina - 2.32 Fiorentina
- Only 5 wins for SPAL this season - naturally opposable?
- 6 consecutive home draws for SPAL.
- 3 0-0's in 4 at home for SPAL.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (55%).
- 14th v 10th today.
- Only 2 home wins for SPAL v 5th and 12th.
- 7 of 9 goals scored at home for SPAL came 2nd half.
- Fiorentina have 4 draws in 5 matches but only 5 losses all season. They are undefeated in 8 away.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
- Fior have 7/8 draws v 8th and lower and meet 14th today.
- I would take a chance and back 0-0 pre match here. High % of 0-0's at halftime both sides. 78% and 69% scoring away both sides.
- Surely it is too obvious to side with the draw today? Take a chance and lay any late draw as a sequence ending for both sides.
14:00 - Udinese v Chievo - 1.83 Udinese
- Oh Lordy, Only 4 wins plays only 1 win. Can we trust these 2 apparently Arthur Daley-managed teams?
- The last 5 matches for both sides is identical.Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss.
- Udinese have scored in their last 6 home matches.
- Chievo have no win in 11 away matches.
- 0-2 win for Udinese the last time these 2 met.
- Do you trust market leaders Udinese here? Is it case of best of a bad bunch? Chievo no win in 11 away matches enough for us to side with Udinese not to lose?
14:00 - Genoa v Lazio - 2.36 Lazio
- Only 2 wins for Genoa since 7th October.
- Only 1 win for Genoa v top 16 home and away.4-1 loss to Lazio earlier this season.
- Lazio are 7th.
- For me, Lazio tend to lose to high quality sides.
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins v lesser lights were unspectacular and continue a run of 5 matches scoring 1 goal maximum.
- With Lazio failing to score in only 3 matches, we should expect a goal from them at some point.
- Lazio have only been beaten by the top 6 and play 13th today.
- 9 of Lazio's 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- The market sees Lazio as very tentative favourites - is that because they have only managed one goal maximum in recent matches. I mean, look at Genoa's form! It is terrible.
- Tentatively support Lazio here - they have only failed to score in 3 matches all season. Remember too, Genoa have only 1 win v the top 16 home and away.
14:00 - Empoli v Sassuolo - 2.66 Sassuolo
- 2.66 odds suggests a toughie.
- Only 4 wins at home for Empoli were the only wins all season.
- 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home for Empoli.
- Empoli have conceded in the last 20 matches and last 11 at home.
- 18th v 11th today. Empoli have just the one win home and away v 14th and higher. Empoli lost 3-1 to Sassuolo earlier in the season.
- Only 3 wins in 17 matches for Sassuolo. 2 wins came away.
- A couple of consecutive away draws.
- Sassuolo come alive home and away v 13th and lower. They are unbeaten. With Empoli bottom 3, Sassuolo have a 3/3 win record, 2 away 0-2.
- On form, Sassuolo should not lose today, in fact 2 0-2 wins v bottom 3. Is that enough to side with them despite the market saying 'I haven't got a clue'.
17:00 - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.63 Inter
- 1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1 goals scored by Inter of late. Poor stuff. Still only 2 defeats from these games.
- 1-1-0-0 goals scored at home by Inter.
- 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Inter.
- 2 home defeats for Inter were 0-1 v 12th and 17th.
- 8 goals scored at home by Inter last 15 minutes.
- Only 1 win in 5 for Sampdoria. They conceded in their last 8 away matches and conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away matches.
- 3/3 losses away v the top 4 and they meet 3rd today. The losses saw them concede 2-3-3 goals.
- 9 goals scored away last 15 minutes.
- It takes a brave man or woman to back Inter at 1.63 odds today. Where is that 2nd goal going to come from? Yes Samp concede 2+ v top 4, and meet 3rd today, but Inter? They have only scored one goal in 2019.
- You may wish to back 0-0 pre match or lay Inter if Inter scores first in the hope that Inter continue to fail to score 2 goals.
19:30 - Napoli v Torino - 1.47 Napoli
- Only 3 defeats for Napoli came away.
- 5 consecutive home wins for Napoli, and unbeaten in 12 at home of course.
- 2+ goals scored by Napoli in each of the last 3 at home.
- Napoli conceded 2 goals only once at home.
- Napoli have scored 9 goals at home in the last 15 minutes.
- Only 5 defeats for Torino.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets but no away win recently.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away for Torino is 50% of matches.
- Only 2 away wins for Torino saw 9 draws. A weakness.
- If Torino, despite only 2 losses away, cannot stop these draws, then lay Torino if they score first. Napoli are in the Europa League - that should not distract.
- Napoli look robust enough in defence to cope today with Torino. 3 consecutive clean sheets for Torino suggests they might actually offer some resistance?
11:15 - Ajax v NAC Breda - 1.07 Ajax
- Only 1 win in 4 for Ajax.
- The 2 losses came away.
- 2+ goals scored by Ajax in the last 9 home matches.
- No win in 10 away for NAC.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- v top 7 away, NAC tend to concede 2-5 goals 5-5-4-4-7-8-3 goals scored by Ajax v 13th and lower.
- This is what we expect of a 1.07 shot. I also back 1-0, 2-0, any other home score in the halftime score market if 0-0 after 20 minutes.
- We should expect goals galore.
13:30 - Excelsior v Emmen - 2.28 Excelsior
- 2 consecutive home wins for Excelsior.
- Only 4 clean sheets for Excelsior.
- 11/12 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home for Excelsior.
- Sporadic home wins v 3rd, 5th, 8th, 17th / Sporadic home losses v 2nd, 6th, 9th, 14th. This leads me to suggest this is unreadable form.
- Emmen's form is a little more readable. Away they have 4 wins and a draw v 7th and lower and meet 16th today.
- Both teams scored in those match.
- My concerns today is that Excelsior's home form is unreadable. Which Excelsior turns up today?
13:30 - Groningen v Feyenoord - 1.77 Feyenoord
- Only 3 losses for Groningen since 2nd November is good stuff.Only 2 wins in 6 matches for Feyenoord sees them cooling down a bit of late.
- 3 wins in 4 for Groningen.
- 4 wins in 5 at home for Groningen.
- Groningen have scored in their last 8 home matches.
- 5/5 losses for Groningen v 4th and higher. Feyenoord are 3rd.
- Groningen home matches are interesting last 15 minutes. 7 goals scored and 5 goals conceded.
- Feyenoord wobbly away. 2-2, 3-1, 2-1 losses. They have failed to score in only 3 matches so are always giving themselves a chance.
- 1-0 win for Feyenoord earlier this season.
- Feyenoord scored and conceded v 10th-16th away.winning only 2 of 5 matches.
- 8 goals conceded last 15 minutes away by Feyenoord.
- Both teams could score today. Groningen usually lose v the top 4. Feyenoord have been in poor form away so I'd have to watch this via the in-play stats to see what kind of a mood Feyenoord are in.
- Pay attention last 15 minutes. It might get interesting goals wise.
15:45 - De Graafschap v Utrecht - 1.75 Utrecht
- A draw and 2 wins at home for De Graafschap.
- Only 3 clean sheets for De Graafschap.
- Strange form for 2nd bottom at home. Wins v 3rd, 9th and 10th and a 2-2 v 5th. They play 6th today at home.
- 4 losses and a draw for Utrecht in their last 5 matches.
- 2-3-2-3-4 goals conceded away for Utrecht recently.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- They have failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 2+ goals conceded away by Utrecht in their last 5 matches.
- 2-3 and 3-3 for Utrecht away v 15th and lower.
- We could see both teams score today. What chance a 2-2 as a trading vehicle given Utrecht's scorelines v 15th and lower and their recent ability to concede 2+ goals?
12:15 - Motherwell v Hearts - 2.56 Hearts
- With Dundee recently beating Hearts, and with 2.56 the favourite, it is a watching brief.
16:00 - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.45 Celtic
- Only 5 losses for Kilmarnock all season.
- 2 draws and a loss for Kilmarnock recently.
- They have failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 5 wins in 6 at home for Killy.
- They have scored in their last 10 at home.
- 2-1 wins at home for Killy v 1st and 2nd.5-1 Celtic win as well though so could swing either way.
- Only 4 defeats all season for Celtic, one as we know came v Killy.
- 5 consecutive clean sheet wins for Celtic.
- Celtic have failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 7 of 10 Celtic goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- 3 losses and a 3-4 win for Celtic away v top 4.
- There is an argument that Celtic are vulnerable today. But the market is very impressed with their 5 wins to nil.
- But....Killy have beaten top 2 at home and Celtic have 3/4 losses away v top 4.
SPANISH LA LIGA
11:00 - Real Madrid v Girona - 1.22 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid tend to win easily in head to heads.
- No Champions League distractions for Real Madrid.
- 5 consecutive wins, scoring 2+ goals sees them back in form.
- Marginal home wins v 13th and lower, 1-0 or 2-0.
- 7 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches for Real.
- Girona have no win in 10 matches. 4 consecutive losses saw them concede 2/3 goals.
- They failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- Girona have conceded in each of their last 11 matches.
- 2-2 and 2-0 away v top 4 and Real are back in the top 3.
- 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Watch if Girona keep it tight first half. They should concede 2/3 eventually. It reminds me of the Stuttgart v Leipzig match of yesterday. An expectation for goals. They may come late.
15:15 - Valencia v Espanyol - 1.79 Valencia
- 9th v 13th in the Spanish La Liga.
- Oh no, the draws are returning for Valencia. 2 consecutive draws. Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Draw sequence at home.
- Valencia are undefeated in 6 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home for Valencia.
- 100% draws for Valencia v 16th and higher is an amazing stat.
- 6 of those were 1-1.
- Valencia lost 2-0 to Espanyol earlier this season.
- Only 2 wins in 12 for Espanyol came at home.
- 5 losses and a 2-2 recently away is a concern.
- 100% defeats v top 8 and all defeats away v top 10 suggests Espanyol should struggle today.
- 9 of 12 goals scored away came 1st half.15 of 21 goals conceded away by Espanyol came 2nd half.
- Based on seasonal stats, Espanyol should not win today, in fact they should lose, but we cannot discount those draws for Valencia. They should not lose but the spectre of the draw hangs over Valencia. I would lay Espanyol if they scored first.
17:30 - Villareal v Sevilla -2.66 Villareal
- The market cannot split these 2.
- No win in 10 and in 5 at home for Villareal. They have scored and conceded last 8 at home.
- 6 draws in 8 matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home and 50% 0-0's at halftime away both sides suggests, like Rangers v St Johnstone, back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and cash out as late as possible.
- Villareal have scored and conceded in all home matches v top 8. Sevilla are 4th. Note Villareal have not beaten top 7 at home.
- 10 of 13 Villareal goals scored at home came 2nd half, 12 of 15 goals conceded came 2nd half.
- Good season for Sevilla, 4th in the league but....3 consecutive away defeats without scoring and 3 draws and 3 defeats last 6 away matches. Is this behind the market's lack of confidence in naming a strong favourite?
- Sevilla have conceded in their last 6 away.
- Despite losing away v 14th and 16th, Sevilla beat 18th away, drew 0-0 at home v Villareal and 2-1 at home v 20th.
- Last 15 mins of away matches, Sevilla scored 6 and conceded 9 goals.
- For me, back 0-0 pre match. It might have legs today given the high % of 0-0's at halftime both sides.
- Both teams to score is a possible given Villareal have scored and conceded in all v top 8 and all bar 1 v top 14 at home. Note v top 7 they have not won. So...lay Villareal if they score first?
- Sevilla are on a very poor away run.Recent away defeats to nil v 14th and 16th and they play 19th today.
- That is why we have 2.66 the market. The market has factored in Sevilla's poor away form recently. But then we know Villareal cannot beat the top 7 at home. Where do you sit?
19:45 - Betis v Alaves - 1.83 Betis
- 4 defeats in 6 plays 3 defeats in 4. Poor recent form for both sides.
- Only 1 loss in 7 home for Betis came v Real Madrid. 2 consecutive home wins.
- Betis have scored in their last 7 home matches.
- 1-0 at home v 2nd, 1-0 v 4th and 1-0 v 7th at home for Betis. They play 6th today. They need a clean sheet to get the win v top sides.
- 5/6 home wins needed a clean sheet.
- 12 of 14 betis goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 3 losses in 4 for Alaves.
- 5 losses, a draw and a win away for Alaves recently.
- 7 losses and a 0-1 win away for Alaves v top 12. Betis are 8th
- An interesting match in which Betis, if they win at home, require a clean sheet. They might be playing the right opponent here in Alaves with their dire loss record v the top 12.
- Expectation therefore for a positive result from Betis. Should Alaves score, have it in the back of your mind then that Betis may not be winning today. Note Betis tend to score 2nd half so if 0-0 at halftime, 1-0 looks an obvious 2nd half play.