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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 16, 2017

Scandinavian leagues dominate the football today. Generally the matches on offer today are poor. I would single out Cork City as a team to follow and would focus on the Odds match from the 0-0 angle.
The next major tennis tournament is the US Open at the end of August. Full coverage of all Grand Slams as usual. I will be monitoring the warm-up tournaments as well as the major ATP and WTA tournaments in the interim.

14:00 - Orebro v IFK Goteborg - 2.36 IFK

  • 3-2 Orebro and 3-2 IFK last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 10th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Orebro

  • 3 wins last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All 4 wins saw both teams scoring. 2 consecutive home wins now.

IFK

  • Only 3 defeats came away and within the last 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Have beaten 12th and 13th away and play 11th today.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lots of match odds like today's where the market cannot split the teams. Neither can I. I can argue for Orebro (recent wins at home) and IFK (beat 12th and 13th away without conceding).
  • Lay the late 0-0 the only angle for me.

16:00 - Bray v Cork City - 1.52 Cork

  • Bray won the last home head to head. Cork won the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Irish Premier Division.

Bray

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches at home.
  • Only 5 under 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Conceded 3-2-2 at home v top 4 but won the 2 matches where they conceded 2 goals!

Cork City

  • Unbeaten with only 1 draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Cork City could simply overwhelm Bray as 2nd in the league did at home (0-3) or we could see a 1-2 Cork win.
  • I cannot see Cork losing but they could concede. that is the simple angle here.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

16:30 - Ilves v HJK Helsinki - 1.96 HJK

  • 2-0 HJK the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Ilves

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Not met top 2 at home yet but lost 2-0 to HJK away.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • No win away v top 6 and has drawn with 3rd, 4th and 6th away.
  • Yet to score 2 goals in an away match v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Dare we back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a 0-0 at halftime, where I tend to trade out? These are 2 teams keeping clean sheets of late.
  • Look at HJK unable to score that 2nd v top 6 away and that could help our cause.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would revert to expecting a goal 2nd half. HJK failed to score only twice and Ilves are yet to have a home 0-0.

16:30 - AIK v Norrkoping - 2.16 AIK

  • 6-0 AIK last head to head in the league.
  • This is 4th v 2nd in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

AIK

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Not lost at halftime.
  • 0-1 at home v 1st and 1-0 v 3rd.
  • 0-0 v 2nd this season away.

Norrkoping

  • Only 4 defeats. Lost their last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in the last 5 aways.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of the last 5 aways.
  • Beat 1st 1-2 away and draw 3-3 v 5th away.
  • Conceded in all aways.

Conclusions

  • I tend to avoid incongruous matches. AIK look like they will aim for a 0-0 or 1-0. Norrkoping scored 2 away v 1st and 3 away v 5th.
  • Norrkoping has scored 2 goals in each of their last 5 aways so it does fly in the face of potential AIK 'tony Pulis' tactics.
  • A match I will personally leave alone. If pushed I would actually favour Norrkoping based on only 4 defeats all season and 2 consecutive defeats which they will be targeting this sequence to end today. I like their scoring of 2 goals away consistently too.

16:30 - JJK v SJK - 1.55 SJK

  • 1-0 SJK the only head to head.
  • This is 12th v 10th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

JJK

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only 1 win.
  • 5 consecutive defeats conceding 2-4 goals in each match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not won to nil at home.
  • 16 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

SJK

  • No draw in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 defeats within those 6 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • SJK are unbeaten v teams below them at home (win and draw at home and win away v 11th).

Conclusions

  • 2 very limited teams in a poor quality league.
  • Lay JJK if JJK score first. They have not won to nil this season.
  • Lay any late 0-0. SJK are yet to have a 0-0 this season.

16:30 - Ostersunds FK v Djurgardens - 2.52 Ostersunds

  • 1-0 Ostersunds the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 6th v 5th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Ostersunds

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 was away to Malmo.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home and at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 8th and lower, but 1-0 and 0-0 v teams above them.

Djurgardens

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime in the last 12 matches.
  • Away v 1st and 8th, conceded 3 goals in defeat.

Conclusions

  • Another match today that the market has swerved taking sides on.
  • Ostersunds have a pattern at home. Score and concede v 8th and lower. Keep it tight v teams above them without conceding.
  • Remember Ostersunds are unbeaten at home.
  • Given the fact Ostersunds tend to keep a clean sheet v the big boys at home, I note both sides have very strong both teams to score patterns.
  • I would be keener to lay Djurgardens if Djurgardens scored first given their 3 goal concessions away v 1st and 8th.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the away side.

16:30 - Lahti v RoPS - 1.7 Lahti

  • 3 consecutive RoPS wins in head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti

  • Only 2 defeats and one was v RoPS.
  • No defeat in 9 matches.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • Only 1 home loss was v 7th.
  • Beat 9th and 10th 1-0 at home.

RoPS

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 0-0-1-0-1 conceded in their last 5 aways.
  • No away draw at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Opponents tend to score first and lead at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Another Sunday puzzler. RoPS obviously know how to beat Lahti but on season long form are in poor away form.
  • I would lay RoPS today if RoPs scored first only based on the fact that Lahti have not lost to nil at home.
  • RoPS are tough to score against though but have conceded 10 goals in the first half.
  • A match which is muddling for me and one I can happily by-pass.

17:00 - Sandefjord v Tromso - 2.54 Sandefjord

  • 1-1 in the last 2 league head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 15th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Sandefjord

  • 2 bottom 4 sides.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten in 3 home matches v 8th and lower and did not concede.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
  • Not conceded a first half goal.

Tromso

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches was curiously v league leaders Rosenborg and away from home!!
  • 4 defeats in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • Like Sandefjord it seems Tromso are better v bottom 1/3rd sides. Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. Only played one team 11th and lower away though and that was a win v bottom side.
  • No 0-0.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor teams who, though, do their points collecting v fellow strugglers. For that reason I agree with the market. These 2 are meeting teams they can beat or draw with.
  • I would note the very strong 2nd half bias for goals. Note it might not be as strong today as both sides lower their sights regards opposition. But if 0-0 at halftime I would take on that 0-0 and expect the usual 2nd half strong goals pattern to continue

17:00 - Molde v Stromsgodset - 1.78 Molde

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 4th v 12th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Molde

  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 3 goals in each of 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 3-3-3 scored in their last 3 home matches.
  • No home draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 matches home and away v teams 9th and lower.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Stroms

  • Won last match but that was one of only 4 wins and no consecutive wins this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches and the 2 wins were home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 8 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded last 11.

Conclusions

  • The pattern seems to be Stroms to score and concede and not win. 1-1 is a best case scenario. 2-1 crops up a lot for Molde so that might be a winning score line.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Molde look likelier first goal scorers and before halftime. If Stroms score first, they are opposable. Stroms have conceded in their last 11 matches and kept just one clean sheet.

17:00 - Odds BK v Viking - 1.78 Odds

  • 2-2 and 3-0 Viking in the last 2 league head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 16th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Odds

  • 4 0-0's in their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Have beaten 12th, 14th and 15th at home without conceding so a chance 0-0 will end in Odds favour today.

Viking

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No away win.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 0-0 today. Odds seem to beat lower teams at home. 2-0, 2-1 appeals to begin with (2-1 included given Viking score and concede).
  • I would lay Viking if Viking score first. They have only 1 clean sheet.

17:00 - Haugesund v Aalesunds - 2.16 Haugesund

  • 0-1 Haugesund in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 6th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Haugesund

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches, keeping 4 clean sheets.
  • A run of 5 home matches without scoring ended with a 2-0 win last match. Will Haugesund continue to score at home?
  • Unbeaten at home v teams above them in the league, albeit 1-0 v 1st, 0-0 v 3rd and 4th.

Aalesund

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away from home.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the away side.
  • I would lay Aalesund if Aalesund score first, based only on their inability to get that 2nd goal away. Haugesund have hardly been prolific at home - a run of 5 home matches without scoring ended with 2 last match.
  • If Haugesund win, it could be a 1-0 or 2-0. If Aalesund do not lose, it could be a 1-1. The form does not expect a goal fest.

19:00 - Brann v Sarpsborg - 2.24 Brann

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd v 3rd in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Brann

  • Only 3 defeats all came away from home. Lost their last away match.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not played top 3 yet at home.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at halftime at home and 13 scored.

Sarpsborg

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 0-0 last 3 away.
  • Not played top 4 away yet.

Conclusions

  • Another less than clear match only because Brann are yet to meet the top 3 at home and Sarpsborg are yet to play the top 4 away (we have nothing to gauge how the teams have got on v the top teams).
  • On form to date, I would be with Brann, only because of their overwhelming scoring ability at home. 13 goals in the first half. I would expect Brann to be the first goal scorers and potential halftime leaders and would lay Sarpsborg should Sarpsborg score first.
  • 0-0 may be in play given Sarpsborg's recent away matches but as I say Brann seem to have an eye for goal.