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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur - 1.93 Tottenham

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Aston Villa home matches and in 9/12 Spurs away matches. Aston Villa have conceded first in 6/12 home matches.

Aston Villa

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the top 6.

Tottenham - 6th

  • 2 consecutive wins came at home.
  • No win in 3 away, failing to score last 2 away.
  • Champions League on 19th Feb.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3-3-3-1-0-2-2 goals scored v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Mourinho famously does sacrifice league matches prior to a Champions League fixture and failing to score in 2 of 3 away, may not be the gimmes we'd expect. Positives? 2+ goals regularly v 16th and lower and a Villa losing to all top 6.
  • Statistically lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but note the pre-Champions League vibe.

16:30 - Arsenal v Newcastle - 1.45 Arsenal

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 9/15 Arsenal home matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 8/12 Arsenal home matches. Newcastle have scored first in 10/13 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Still new manager for Arsenal.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw for Arsenal under Arteta. What a Revolution!
  • Arsenal at home have won their 3 matches at halftime. Loss, Win, Draw at home under Arteta.
  • 3 draws and a 1-0 win v Chelsea for Newcastle sees them arrest a run of 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Angles? I am sorry but new managered matches need some caution, particularly as Arteta has hardly transformed this Arsenal sides' fortunes and Newcastle, unluckily for the Arse, have suddenly hit an unbeaten run.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.44 Celtic

  • 1st half outcome: Aberdeen have lost the first half in 7/9 home matches against Big One teams while Celtic have had W/W double results in 10/13 away matches. Aberdeen have lost 7/8 home matches against Big One teams.

Aberdeen - 3rd

  • Not beaten a top 2 side this season.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side at home.
  • 0-4 loss and 2-1 loss v Celtic already this season.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Recent 0-0 with Rangers came away.
  • 17% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 10/14 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Celtic - 1st

  • 17 wins and a loss last 18 matches.
  • 6 consecutive wins, 8 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in those matches.
  • Led at halftime in 10/13 away.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen are yet to beat the top 4 at home and top 2 all season. There is nothing suggesting a change today.
  • Aberdeen's only hope? A recent 0-0 with Rangers might offer some defensive capability? But Celtic are scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches, all wins.
  • Celtic do tend to lead at halftime away.

16:30 - Kilmarnock v Hibernian - 2.16 Kilmarnock

  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 6/10 Kilmarnock home matches against top-half teams and -2.5 goals in 6/10 Kilmarnock such matches. Hibernian have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

Kilmarnock - 7th

  • 7 losses ended with 3 consecutive wins and like Hearts, full of 2+ goals recently.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 46% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 71% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only lost at home to top 4.
  • 2-0 win and 2-2 v Hibs this season.

Hibernian - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away.
  • 18 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Kilmarnock have a chance here but these 2 are close in league position. Still, Hibs are yet to beat the top 7 away and Killy like scoring 2 goals against them.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Koln v Bayern Munich - 1.26 Bayern Munich

  • 1st half outcome: FC Koln have won the first half in 6/10 home matches and they have scored first in 7/10 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Bayern away matches against bottom-six teams.

Koln - 13th

  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins at home.
  • Scored last 6 and last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 4.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bayern - 1st

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score only last match v 2nd.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 3 away matches.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are expected to score 2+ goals today and that should be enough. Koln are on a good winning streak at home but have lost all matches v the top 4.
  • Expect 3+ goals in total today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Mainz v Schalke - 2.5 Schalke

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 9/14 FSV Mainz 05 home matches and +2.5 goals in 12/14 FSV Mainz 05 home matches. Schalke 04 have drawn the first half in 12/18 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • I'll do a quick look via the DRT Facebook Preview/Review video.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Udinese v Verona - 2.74 Udinese

  • 1st goal: Udinese have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while Verona have scored first in 7/11 away matches. Udinese have lost 12/15 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Very high odds for the favourite suggests caution/in-play stats. Again, quick look via DRT Facebook video. Researching is a waste of time, historically, for these odds matches.

14:00 - Juventus v Brescia - 1.2 Juventus

  • Match outcome: Juventus have won 18/19 home matches against bottom-six teams while Brescia have lost 7/10 away matches. Juventus have had W/W double results in 8/11 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Juventus - 2nd

  • 2 losses in 3 matches came away.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored each of the last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 4/5 matches (4 wins and a draw) v 16th and lower.

Brescia - 19th

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • 55% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played top 4 away but lost to them at home, 3 1-2 scorelines v the top 3.
  • 68% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No Champions League concerns for Juve, at least this week so they should be fully focused on what should be 3 points. If Brescia are losing to the top 3, with home advantage then logic suggests that similar is expected away.
  • Ronaldo is still scoring at least a goal a game recently! And Juve are scoring 2+ goals at home recently.
  • Brescia may keep it tight first half.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.82 Fiorentina

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Sampdoria home matches against middle-third teams while Fiorentina have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Fiorentina away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Parma - 2.1 Sassuolo

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/11 Sassuolo home matches against middle-third teams and in 14/20 Parma away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/20 Parma away matches.

Sassuolo - 12th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 at home.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Beat 4th, 5th, 13th, 17th and 20th at home.
  • 1-0 loss to Parma last head to head.

Parma - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 came at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins bar 1 have come v 11th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Despite what the market thinks, Parma tend to collect their wins v 11th and lower and may have a shout here. Sass are on a sudden 2 match winning run at home = good momentum though.

17:00 - Cagliari v Napoli - 1.94 Napoli

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Cagliari home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/17 Napoli away matches. Napoli have drawn the first half in 8/10 away matches against top-half teams.

Cagliari - 8th

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 6 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 10/12 matches.
  • 0-1 win v Napoli earlier this season.
  • Only 4 home losses, 2 came v the top 3.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Napoli - 11th

  • Ginari Gattuso 'dov'è il centro di lavoro' is what he should have been asking after that embarrassing loss to Lecce AT HOME as well!
  • His tenure has been poor. 4 defeats blunted by wins v Sampdoria and Juventus.
  • Napoli are in the Champions League but not this coming week so no distractions on that basis.
  • No draw yet under Gattuso.
  • Only won 1 match at halftime.
  • Win, Loss, Win away scoring 2-0-4 goals.

Conclusions

  • A match to monitor. Which Napoli turns up today? A really poor haul so far for Gattuso's Napoli but 2 wins in 3 away scoring 2+ goals may see redemption if Cagliari are as generous as recent matches (2+ goals conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches).
  • Can you trust this Gattuso Napoli?

19:45 - Lazio v Inter Milan - 2.42 Lazio

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Lazio home matches and +2.5 goals in 8/10 Lazio home matches. Inter Milan have scored first in 10/11 away matches.
  • Enjoy this match as a watching punter. In-play stats only with 2 such solid sides.
  • Europa League for Inter Milan this week. Will that distract them?

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Sevilla v Espanyol - 1.63 Sevilla

  • 1st half outcome: Sevilla have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Espanyol away matches against top-six teams. Espanyol have lost 12/14 away matches against top-six teams.

Sevilla - 5th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came v newly promoted sides.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 matches and last 9 at home.
  • 55% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins home and away v the bottom 3 without conceding. 1-0 at home v 2nd bottom.
  • Scored only a single goal in 7 home matches.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol - 20th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • Lost away to 1st and 4th, conceding goals.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla have an alarmingly poor goal scoring record v the bottom half sides at home. They are yet to score that 2nd goal.
  • They have kept clean sheets v the bottom 3 so may get away with a 1-0 win. The value? Lay Sevilla if they lead 1-0 late on. If they struggle to score 2 goals, you'll have a good run from a late lay.

13:00 - Leganes v Real Betis - 2.48 Leganes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Leganes home matches and in 8/13 Real Betis away matches. Real Betis have scored first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • DRT Facebook video for a short look at this match.

15:00 - Eibar v Sociedad - 2.6 Sociedad

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Eibar home matches against top-six teams and in 5/8 Real Sociedad away matches against bottom-half teams. Real Sociedad have drawn the first half in 8/13 away matches.
  • As above, 2.6 the favourite.

17:30 - Athletico Bilbao v Osasuna - 2.04 Ath Bilbao

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Ath. Bilbao home matches against middle-third teams and in 4/5 Osasuna away matches against middle-third teams. Osasuna have drawn 3/5 away matches against middle-third teams.

Athletico Bilbao - 10th

  • No win in 8 matches. 5 draws has ended with 2 defeats.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower - 1-2 win last head to head.

Osasuna - 12th

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Either 1-0 or 0-0 is the halftime score away.
  • Only away wins v the bottom 2.
  • All away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This may be an opportunity for Bilbao to arrest a really poor run. They are unbeaten at home v 8th and lower so have a chance against an Osasuna only beating the bottom 2 away.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring for Osasuna whose only halftime scores away have been 0-0 or 1-0.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.3 Real Madrid

  • 1st goal: Real Madrid have scored first in 16/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Celta Vigo have lost 9/10 away matches against Big Two teams. Real Madrid have won 8/10 home matches.

Real Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 5 clean sheets last 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 14 and in 11 at home.
  • 45% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 1-3 win v Celta earlier this season.
  • 6/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Did win last match v Sevilla at home.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 64% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 1-3 and 4-1 losses v the top 2 this season.
  • 80% goals scored, 75% goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Celta Vigo's record v the top 2 is poor, 7 goals conceded in 2 matches. No Champions League distractions for Real Madrid means 100% focus on maintaining top of the League. Keeping clean sheets too, it suggests Real should eye the win here. Celta may keep it tight 1st half but are likely to concede 2nd half.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Vitesse Arnhem v Heerenveen - 2 Vitesse

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 16/20 Vit. Arnhem home matches and in 10/10 Heerenveen away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/19 Vit. Arnhem home matches.

Vitesse - 6th

  • 6 unbeaten matches ended with a loss last match.
  • Draw, Win, Draw at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Not played 9th-12th at home.
  • Only 2 home losses v 8th-17th.
  • 3-2 loss v Heerenveen earlier this season.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Heerenveen - 10th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • No win in 6.
  • Scored and conceded last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • 4 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 5th-8th away.
  • 63+ % of goals scored and conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Gaps in form muddy the waters.
  • Both teams to score is a very strong angle.

13:30 - Ajax v RKC Waalwijk - 1.06 Ajax

  • HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 16/19 home matches while Waalwijk have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches. Ajax have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • RKC tend to concede 2-4 goals v the top 6 - all defeats.
  • 1-2 Ajax win last head to head.
  • 100% wins for Ajax v 7th and lower, RKC are bottom of the league.
  • 5+ goals scored by Ajax v 13th and lower at home.
  • Angles? Expect Ajax to lead at halftime and stretch to 5 goals today at their best. Europa League for Ajax on the 20th February 2020.

13:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v FC GRONINGEN - 2.6 Sparta Rotterdam

  • Match outcome: Sparta R'dam have won 4/6 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and they have won by two or more goals in 3/6 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 6/10 Groningen away matches.

15:45 - Willem II v FC Utrecht - 2.46 Willem II

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Willem II home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and +3.5 goals in 10/17 Utrecht away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/17 Utrecht away matches.

15:45 - PEC Zwolle v Feyenoord - 1.78 Feyenoord

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/14 Zwolle home matches and in 8/9 Feyenoord away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 11/13 Zwolle home matches.

PEC Zwolle - 16th

  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side - 1-0 loss to Feyenoord earlier.

Feyenoord - 4th

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • No defeat in 10.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played bottom 3 away.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord have found their mojo and look value here today, particularly as PEC are yet to beat a top 6 side.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.