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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 16, 2017

Live chat today at 13:30 for the Liverpool match. No Italian Seria A today.

11:00 - Leganes v Espanyol - 2.16 Leganes

  • 3-0 Espanyol the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 17th v 7th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Leganes are 5 points clear of relegation at the moment.

Leganes 100% stats

  • Have not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • All home wins v 16th and lower - fellow strugglers.

Leganes other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 without winning.
  • Win Win draw before an inevitable loss to Real Madrid at home. So solid very recent home form.

Espanyol 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Espanyol other stats

  • No win in 5 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets since 11th October 2016.

Conclusions

  • Another of those 'on form' matches. On form Espanyol have shown that teams 13th and lower are easy to deal with and they are unbeaten.
  • Leganes have made a real effort in their last 4 home matches with 2 wins and a 0-0, taking away the obvious defeat to Real Madrid. Again 'on form' Leganes have not beaten any top 9 side home or away.
  • Leganes may up their game as points are at a premium. That is why I emphasise that 'on form' Leganes will not be winning.

11:30 - Willem II v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.76 Willem II

  • 3 consecutive Willem II wins in head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 18th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • Given the relegation six pointer status of this match I'll just post the basic stats.

Willem II

  • 4 matches remain this season so must wins really for both sides.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive defeats last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home home.
  • 0-1 and 0-0 at home v bottom 3.

Go Ahead Eagles

  • 6 defeats, a 2-2 and a 1-2 win v Twente in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 18 matches and last 15 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • Scored in all away matches v 6th - 12th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • This match does not appeal and it takes researching it to find out. There might be an angle from the above for you but not me. It is a relegation six pointer too.

13:30 - West Brom v Liverpool - 1.91 Liverpool

  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 the last 3 Liverpool visits.
  • This is 8th v 3rd in the Premiership. A top 2 spot is possible for Liverpool. West Brom are 10 points shy of the spot above them. Questionable motivation.

West Brom 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 5 side.

West Brom other stats

  • Only 1 win in 6 was v Arsenal - heck my Sunday league side could beat Arsenal at the moment (ok, then, draw with Arsenal).
  • Failed to score in 5 of 6 matches either side of that Arsenal win. 40 points = switched off?
  • No draw in 12 at home.

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v top 10.

Liverpool other stats

  • Scored 2 or 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • 2-1-1-1-4-1-0 goals scored away v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • Questionable motivation from the baggies failing to score in 5 of 6 then tonking Arsenal 3-1. What gives? Liverpool are a topsy turvy team. Losses outside the top 10. Unbeaten inside the top 10 home and away.
  • Their goal scoring away v top 10 is a worry. 4 matches saw only a single goal, 1 no goal.2 and 4 were the exception.
  • Liverpool really should remain unbeaten and I would lay any late draw while West Brom continue to avoid the draw.

13:30 - Feyenoord v Utrecht - 1.43 Feyenoord

  • 4 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches saw Feyenoord score 2 goals at least in each.Both teams scored too. Last head to head was 3-3.
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded at home v top 6.

Feyenoord other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 consecutive home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home. Tend to lead at halftime at home.

Utrecht 100% stats

  • Not won v teams above them.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team away.

Utrecht other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins, scoring 3 in 3 of those matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 away matches v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord, on form, should lead at halftime so note that if 0-0 come 30th+ minute.
  • Utrecht, despite excellent form, have not beaten any teams above them in the league.
  • Both teams are likely to score and I would like Utrecht to score first for a trading angle. They must be opposed.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Hamburg - 2.28 Werder

  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads. 2-2 last match! Welcome to the world of Werder.
  • This is 11th v 13th in the German Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw at home v 8th and lower.
  • 2-1 /1-2 scorelines at home v 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th,17th.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches, scoring 2+ goals in 7 of those matches.
  • 3 consecutive wins to nil at home 2-0, 3-0, 3-0.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 22 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 10 of 13 home matches.

Hamburg 100% stats

  • Not beaten a side 3th - 17th away from home.
  • Failed to score 2 goals away v 4th - 17th

Hamburg other stats

  • Failed to score last 3 aways.
  • 20 of 29 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Brilliant form at the right part of the season for Werder. On form we should expect 2/3 goals from them.
  • Hamburg are in a goal drought away and Werder have 3 consecutive wins to nil at home. So both teams scoring is not rock solid as usual with Werder.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Hamburg must be opposed if scoring first.

15:15 - Valencia v Sevilla - 2.64 Valencia

  • 2-1 Valencia and 2-1 Sevilla in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 4th in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Valencia 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • No draw home or away v 14th and higher in the league.

Valencia other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins scoring 3 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches all season.
  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th-18th inclusive.

Sevilla other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6.
  • 12 goals scored away last 1/2 hour.

Conclusions

  • I am going to back 2-2 here as a trading angle. Both sides are regular scorers and Valencia rarely keep a clean sheet and rarely fail to score.
  • Valencia have scored 3 goals recently at home. Sevilla have 8 of 11 matches v 11th - 16th where both teams have scored and one side has scored 2 goals.
  • The market cannot split these 2.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • This should not end 0-0 if somehow it is 0-0 mid second half.

15:45 - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.18 Ajax

  • 6  consecutive Ajax wins in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 8th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Ajax 100% stats

  • 4 matches remain and it's a humdinger at the top of the league.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v top 10 teams.
  • No 0-0.

Ajax other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 12 wins in 13 home matches.

Heerenveen 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home and away.
  • 2-2 and 4-3 away v top 3.

Heerenveen other stats

  • 7 defeats in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Heerenveen could concede 2 + goals today and could score as well. I do think Ajax will outscore Heerenveen today.
  • Dare I say that 2-2 is a good trading position given Heerenveen's 2-2 and 4-3 away v top 3.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

16:00 - Man Utd v Chelsea - 2.84 Man Utd

  • 1-1 and 0-0 last 2 Man Utd head to heads.
  • I will not research this fully as this high profile matches have a life of their own.
  • 5 draws in 6 home matches for Man Utd is leaking points.
  • No defeat in 14 at home and 21 overall for United. Tough to beat but tough to win!
  • United have not scored 2 goals at home v top 8 teams.
  • Only 4 defeats for Chelsea who have scored and conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Chelsea failed to score only twice.
  • 1-1 immediately grabs my attention here as a trading angle. 0-0 or 1-1.
  • Chelsea keep scoring and conceding. Man Utd keep drawing at home and have not scored that 2nd goal at home v top teams.

16:00 - SC Bastia v Lyon - 1.56 Lyon

  • 2-1 Lyon in the last head to head.
  • This is 20th v 4th in French Ligue 1.
  • Another match featuring a bottom side who can extricate themselves from trouble albeit with wins only. This may skew the form as Bastia may play above themselves. Another match for the basic research.
  • Only 3 wins since 1st October 2016 for Bastia suggests that on probability alone they are not going to win.
  • They did win their last match though.
  • 5 draws and a loss at home for Bastia last 6 matches.
  • Bastia had 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Bastia have not beaten any side home or away in the top 8 but they are tough to beat 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 v top 5 at home.
  • Lyon play post-Europa League. In 6 of their last 7 matches away, Lyon have not won!
  • Lyon have failed to score only 4 times.
  • Lyon threaten to score heavily v 14th and lower. E.g. They have scored 5-5-3-2-2-4-3-1-1-4-2-2. The only time they scored less than 2 goals was v one team Lorient.
  • If Lyon are not worse for wear after their Europa League match, they could threaten 2 goals at least today but Bastia are tough.
  • 1-1 looks an obvious score to begin with, 1-2 another option. I would certainly be laying Bastia if Bastia scored first. Only Lorient of the basement sides have kept Lyon to a single goal.

16:30 - Darmstadt v Schalke - 1.81 Schalke

  • Schalke have won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 10th in the German Bundesliga.
  • Darmstadt are relegated so just basic research here.

Darmstadt stats

  • Only 4 wins, all came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 0-0 v 8th and 1-0 win v 9th at home.

Schalke stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches since 21st September 2016.
  • Only 1 win in their last 7 away matches.
  • Not won a match at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower but relatively poor away from home.

Conclusions

  • A top 5 spot is actually still possible for Schalke so there is motivation here. They are poor away from home but unbeaten v 15th and lower.
  • Darmstadt are relelgated. We don't know what we'll get here. A loosening of the shackles? Really Darmstadt should not be winning.
  • Lay any draw as they tend to avoid draws at the moment.

17:30 - Betis v Eibar - 2.74 Eibar

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams suggesting the form may be muddied.
  • 3-1 Eibar in the last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 16th in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Betis 100% stats

  • All home defeats have come v the top 9.

Betis other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.

Eibar 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Eibar other stats

  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
  • The last 4 teams to beat Eibar are Atl Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla and Real Madrid. They are not strong favourites today. Why?
  • Unbeaten away v bottom 4, playing 5th bottom today.

Conclusions

  • I do not understand the market here. It has taken the big 4 to beat Eibar of late. So why are they not strong favourites? Injuries? Suspensions? Nothing to play for?
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I will enter this match expecting a positive Eibar performance but acknowledging the strange market.

19:45 - Granada v Celta Vigo - 2.64 Celta Vigo

  • 2-1 and 3-1 Celta Vigo in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 19th v 10th in the Spanish Primera division. Celta would ordinarily be stronger favourites but I am guessing the market knows Granada's needs. They are 7 points from safety.

Granada other stats

  • 5 defeats and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win v top 10 home and away.
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • Unbeaten away v 13th and lower.
  • Away 1-1 and 0-0 v bottom 3.
  • 20 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today I think. 1-2 is the likeliest score if the match goes to form but note the market cannot split these sides.
  • On form Celta should not lose.
  • Granada should certainly concede at some point. Only 3 clean sheets all season.

20:00 - Marseille v St Etienne - 1.91 Marseille

  • 1-1 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 7th in French Ligue 1. The top 3 are out for reach for these 2 sides.

Marseille 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home outside of the top 2.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in any of those matches.

Marseille other stats

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

St Etienne 100% stats

  • No win away v teams above them in the league.

St Etienne other stats

  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • St Etienne have an even more pronounced scoring and conceding rate away from home so if this match is 0-0 at halftime there is a good chance that we will see a 2nd half goal.
  • On form, Marseille are solid at home and should not lose although 0-0 is creeping into their games.
  • Both sides are drawing of late. Take a chance and lay the late draw and hope the sequence ends?