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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 15, 2017

It looks an extremely tough old coupon today. I will live chat 14:00 for Italian Seria A and to catch the fag-end of the first half Brighton v Everton (another toughie!). I will live chat via the website today but tweeters note, Twitter is updated via the website so I will not be tweeting today or monitoring any tweets.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

13:30 - Brighton v Everton - 2.5 Everton

Brighton

2 consecutive home wins.

Everton

4 defeats in 5 matches.
They failed to score in those defeats.
Only 1 clean sheet came first match of the season.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

Everton's recent defeats need a context. They have lost to Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United and Burnley.
I think Everton will be more competitive today. No strong angles.

16:00 - Southampton v Newcastle - 1.89 Southampton

Southampton

3 defeats in 4 matches and have now failed to score in 3 of 4 home matches.
Conceded 2-2-1 last 3 home matches.

Newcastle

3 wins, a loss and draw last 5 matches is impressive.
2 1-0 losses and a 0-1 win away - specific away tactics?
Beat 13th, 14th, 15th and play current 12th today.

Conclusions

Not a match which stirs the soul. No strong angles. Newcastle look likely to aim for a sustained 0-0 then nick a goal.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:15 - Derby v Nottm Forest - 1.75 Derby

3-0 Derby and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 15th v 13th after 10 matches.

Derby

3 consecutive draws.
Failed to score in only 2 matches.
Loss, Win, Win, Draw at home.
3 losses have come v the current top 4.

Nottm Forest

No draw.
Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches away.
3 losses in 4 away matches.
Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Failed to score only once.

Conclusions

I would lay the late draw here. 3 match sequence for Derby v a Forest side avoiding draws currently.
I would have to favour Derby in a match where both teams could score but Derby not lose.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Montpellier v Nice - 2.52 Montpellier

Note the odds. The market cannot split these 2 sides.
1-1 and 2-1 Nice in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 13th v 10th after 8 matches.

Montpellier

Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.
Have failed to score 2 goals in a match this season.
1-1-0-0 scored at home.
Only 1 team has scored 2 goals against them this season.
Held PSG to a 0-0 at home.

Nice

Stark contrast.2-0-3-0-0-2-4 goals conceded recently.
2-0-4-1-2-2 scored recently. A touch of the Sociedad's about Nice.
1-0, 3-0, 0-1 away so goal scoring has dried up away from home.

Conclusions

Market has this spot on. No strong angles. We have a home side great defensively with opponents unable to score 2 goals and scoring 1-1-0-0 at home.
We have an away side doing a 'Sociedad' scoring and conceding readily and the number 2 turning up frequently. But 0-0-1 scored away.
Next please!! If I had to choose then Nice's goal scoring may over whelm Montpellier but note that word 'if'.

20:00 - Strasbourg v Marseille - 2.1 Marseille

Last head to head was 2008.

Strasbourg

Only 1 win.
2 consecutive home losses v newly or recently promoted sides 0-1 and 1-2.
Only 1 clean sheet came in the win.

Marseille

3 consecutive wins.
3 wins in 4 aways.
Scored in every match.
2-2-4 goals scored in their last 3 matches.

Conclusions

A very basic take on the form? The away side are scoring consistently and are now scoring 2+ goals consistently, have 3 wins in 4 aways and play a team with 2 consecutive losses v fellow promoted sides.
Marseille should be eyeing the win here today. A look into why Marseille's odds are relatively big......Europa League on Thursday! It affected Arsenal.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Leverkusen v Wolfsburg - 1.53 Leverkusen

4-5, 3-0, 3-3 last 3 head to heads at Leverkusen.

Leverkusen

2-2, 4-0, 3-0 at home. Solid home form.
Scored and conceded by contrast in 3 losses and a draw away.
Scored in every match.
2-3-2-2-1 goals before halftime in recent matches. No 0-0 at halftime
Beat 15th and 16th convincingly and play 14th today.
6 first half goals scored at home.

Wolfsburg

4 draws in 5 matches.
Only 1 win a 0-1 away.
Only 1 clean sheet.
2-2 Bayern last away.

Conclusions

Leverkusen should score before halftime today and win comfortably as long as they do not do a Bayern. Lead 2-0, draw 2-2.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Expect 2+ goals from Leverkusen if they keep impressive home form up (it is away where they falter).

17:00 - Werder Bremen v Mgladbach - 2.62 Werder Bremen

The market cannot split the teams and I tend to treat matches with a market like this with caution.
3 consecutive Mgladbach wins in head to heads. 0-1 last match ended a run of scoring and conceding.

Werder Bremen

No win. 2 consecutive 0-0's What's up with Werder? Have they not taken their both teams to score and a goal before halftime medication?
0-1, 1-2, 0-0 at home.
Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.

Mgladbach

Both teams scored in 4 of their last 6 matches.
2-2, 2-2, 6-1 away.
All over 2.5 goals at halftime away.

Conclusions

Mgladbach show the form Werder typically show. Goals before halftime, both teams to score.
2 consecutive 0-0's. Are Werder attempting to defend? LoL.
I would lay any late 0-0 today. It is such an anomoly for a side with Werder's reputation.
I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but that is based solely on Mgladbach and I am ready for a loss there if Werder don't want to play ball.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Fiorentina v Udinese - 1.66 Fiorentina

2 consecutive home 3-0 wins in head to heads for Fiorentina.

Fiorentina

Have arguably had a tough opening set of matches - Inter Milan, Sampdoria, Juventus and last year's 4th placed Atalanta.
That is the only reason I can justify such poor form with a 1.66 quote.
1-2, 2-1, 1-1 at home though. Unbeaten.
Only 1 clean sheet.

Udinese

No draw, all defeats bar 2 wins which came at home.
Scored in every match.
3-2, 2-1, 3-1 away.
No 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

A strict reading of the form sees Fiorentina concede without losing. It looks set up for the pattern of current scores at home for Fior , i.e. 2-1 or 1-1.
Udinese are conceding in defeat.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
I excuse poor Fior form with a 1.66 quote - as I say they have met top teams early on this campaign.

14:00 - Bologna v Spal - 1.98 Bologna

Bologna

Failed to score only once.
3 0-1 wins all came away.
Napoli and Inter Milan the last 2 visitors, loss and a draw.

SPAL

Newly promoted and feeling it. 4 consecutive defeats and a 1-1.
Only 1 clean sheet came first match.
Conceded 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

A touch of the Huddersfields about Spal. It started promisingly but reality bites.
Bologna look defensively sound to me and the only concern is that they have not scored that 2nd goal this season. That may change today against a SPAL conceding 2 goals regularly.
It would surprise me were Spal to win this. That is a simplistic angle into the match.

14:00 - Cagliari v Genoa - 2.28 Cagliari

Home team unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.

Cagliari

No draws and only 2 wins.
1-0-0 scored at home.
Failed to score last 3.
1-0 and 0-1 at home v 16th and 17th and play 19th today.

Genoa

No win.
1-0, 1-0, 0-0 away.
Scored 2 goals at home v Lazio and Juventus but came out with 2 defeats.

Conclusions

These 2 will not be winning Seria A. 0-0 for a while could occur with such slovenly scoring?
1-0/0-1 final score looks likely if we see a goal in another poor match in a tough day.

14:00 - Crotone v Torino - 2.26 Torino

Crotone

Only 1 win came home v newly promoted Benevento.
Started season failing to score in 4 but now a goal at least in 3.

Torino

Only 1 loss in the Turin derby v Juventus.
Draw, win, win, loss away.
Failed to score only v Juve.
3-1-2-3-0-2 goals scored recently.
4-2-2-2 total goals before halftime recently.

Conclusions

On form, Torino must be fancied but it is a suspiciously high odds given them by the market.
Although torino are not at the level of AC Milan, Inter Milan and Atalanta (all teams beating Crotone convincingly), strictly on form, Torino must be favoured.
Their scoring of 2 goals consistently could be their saving grace today.
I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Torino.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Atalanta - 2.68 Atalanta

Is Sunday the day for toughies? Another 2.68 favourite.
2-1 Sam and 1-0 Atalanta last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria

Only loss came last match.
Prior to that 4-0 loss, had scored 2 goals a game in 4 of 5 matches.
Only 2 home matches to work with.

Atalanta

Unbeaten in 5 after a tough opener v Roma and Napoli.
2 1-1 draws away and a recent 2-2 at home v Juventus.
Scored and conceded in all bar first match of season and only lost once when scored and conceded.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

2 sides in solid form.
2 sides scoring readily. We may see both teams scoring.
They look as well matched as the market suggests.

19:45 - Inter v AC Milan - 2.18 Inter - Europa League for AC Milan

2 consecutive 2-2 draws in head to heads.

Inter

Unbeaten all wins bar a 1-1 with Bologna.
Showed credentials with an easy win away at Roma.
Failed to score at least 2 goals only twice.

AC Milan

3 defeats this season to Lazio, Sampdoria and Roma suggests to me this new look Inter Milan can cope with AC.
Both sides are at home making it pointless really to look at AC Milan's away form. At home though they have 3 wins, scoring 2 and a loss to Roma.

Conclusions

My personal opinion? I am with Inter Milan today not to lose. They look more robust this season and are beating the big names. AC Milan are not.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Heracles v Vitesse - 2.1 Vitesse

1-1, 1-2 Heracles and 0-1 Vitesse last 3 head to heads.

Heracles

Scored and conceded in every match.
3 losses in 4 matches.
Only 2 wins were 2-1 and came at home.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
Scored 2 goals in every home match and only won 1.
7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Opponents have scored first in 3 of 4 home matches.

Vitesse

Only 1 loss.
Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
1-3, 0-3, 1-2 away.
Both sides have beaten Ajax this season.
Scored every match.

Conclusions

Both teams have strong both teams to score patterns so start there.
Vitesse's form is more robust.
Note Heracles are scoring 2 goals at home and have not won 3 matches so a great angle. Let's hope Heracles take a 2-0 lead!
Heracles very strong 2nd half scoring record so watch that if they have not scored by halftime.

13:30 - VVV v PSV - 1.49 PSV

These 2 have not met since 2013.

VVV

Only 1 loss was at home v Ajax. A good start to live back at the top.
3 1-1 draws and a win in their last 4 matches.

PSV

Top of the league.
All wins bar a surprise 2-0 loss to Heerenveen.
First 0-0 at halftime came last match.
Only failed to score in the defeat.

Conclusions

A solid start from VVV but telling perhaps that the only side they failed to score against was Ajax. That could be a template for today.
An expectation that PSV will dominate against this newly promoted side.
VVV are certainly layable if scoring first. The recent 1-1 draws attest to that.

13:30 - Willem II v Twente - 2.6 Willem II

2-3 Twente, 0-0 and 2-1 Twente last 3 head to heads.
We see a lot of these matches today. Fav at 2.6 odds means the market hasn't got a scooby doo.

Willem II

All defeats bar a single win.
3 consecutive 1-2 losses at home.
No clean sheets.
All bar 1 over 2.5 goals.

Twente

Like Willem II, no draw this season.
2 wins Twente came at home.
1-0-0-0 scored away.
Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

This is quite clearly not the Twente of old, one of the big 3 (Ajax and PSV).
Twente showed some home sparkle with 2 consecutive wins but failed to score in their last 3 aways.
A match to avoid. Neither side has a draw. Lay the late draw if you think this sequence continues.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Eibar v Deportivo - 2.02 Eibar

1-1 and 3-1 in the last 2 Eibar head to heads.

Eibar

No draw sees all defeats bar 2 wins 0-1 and 1-0.
Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
Failed to score 2 goals in a match this season.
Not scored a first half goal.

Depor

2 consecutive home wins - the only wins this season.
Failed to score only once. Only 1 clean sheet.
2-2, 2-1, 4-1 away.

Conclusions

It is a tough Spanish La Liga coupon today with a lot of 'so what?' teams.
Lay any late draw based on Eibar?
An uninspiring match with an uninspiring favourite. If Eibar cannot score 2 goals, they are vulnerable surely?

15:15 - Girona v Villarreal - 2.72 Villareal

What a tough set of fixtures in La Liga. Ordinarily I would not research odds like this but feel obliged to as this is an elite league.

Girona

Only 1 win, a 1-0 v Malaga at home.
1-0-0 scored last 3 home matches. To be fair, tough opponents in Sevilla and Barcelona.
Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

Villareal

Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
3 defeats and a 0-3 v Alaves away.

Conclusions

Villareal are a bit Jakyll and Hyde. Scoring 3 goals with abandon, and then being spanked 4-0 by Getafe.
I do feel that Villareal have the weapons to deal with Girona who have, remember, only scored 1-0-0 at home.
I will let the inplay stats decide my play with a nod towards Villareal.

17:30 - Malaga v Leganes - 2.56 Malaga

0-0 the last time these 2 met.
Malaga are bottom of the league currently.

Malaga

No win, all defeats bar a 3-3.
Failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
3 goals conceded in their last 2 at home.
No 0-0.
5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leganes

5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
1-0 loss away and 1-0 win at home v bottom 3.

Conclusions

Again the market is spot on here. What are the angles?
Leganes clean sheets v a Malaga who are usually tight at home but have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 home matches.

19:45 - Betis v Valencia - 2.66 Valencia

Yet another to add to the list of 'market hasn't got a clue' in what is a tough coupon today.
2-3 Betis and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Betis

3 home wins v 11th and lower.Valencia 5th currently.
Not yet met a current top 10 side at home.
5 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 6.
Scored in all bar first match of the season.

Valencia

Unbeaten. 2-2, 2-3 and 1-1 away.
2 consecutive 3-2 wins.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Conclusions

The market likes Betis home form but Betis are yet to meet a current top 10 side this season.
Rather like Inter Milan, Valencia seem to have had a make-over and seem more robust and on that basis I will look to Valencia not to lose today.
Over 2.5 goals is a pattern with Betis so both sides could contribute to the goals.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Valencia.