Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Everything postponed. I will keep the research after spending so long on it. So I hope we have these to hand when sanity and sanitiser prevails. I will do a quick video as there may be some leagues still playing despite the chaos. DRT live video available covers Turkey, Russia and Ukraine. I will return to written research tomorrow.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - West Ham v Wolves - 2.52 Wolves

  • New manager syndrome for West Ham and the fact that Wolves are 2.52 suggests that the market cannot split these 2.
  • West Ham have had an extremely tough fixture list for David Moyes (football genius). Loss v Leicester, Liverpool, Man City, Liverpool again, and Arsenal. Big sides.
  • The loss v Arsenal was very unlucky and came via a VAR goal.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 for Wolves is solid stuff. Only losing to Liverpool.
  • 2 2-3 wins away in their last 3 away.
  • Wolves may be Europa League hungover. West Ham's new manager leaves a question mark until we can see Moyes-related patterns.
  • West Ham may struggle if Wolves score 3 goals as they did in 2 of their last 3 matches.

16:30 - Tottenham v Man Utd - 2.36 Man Utd

  • One of those high profile derbies which may negate any form lines.
  • No win in 3 for Mourinho. 2 losses and a draw.
  • Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches for Mourinho.
  • No draw at home for Spurs under Mourinho. WWLWLWWL (W=win, L=Loss) Losses v Wolves, Liverpool and Chelsea suggests possible struggles v top 6 sides like....Man Utd?
  • 2-0-2-2-2 goals scored at home recently for Spurs.
  • Win Win, Draw, Win recently for Man Utd saw them do the halftime/fulltime double.
  • Only 1 loss v the top 8 for United sees them upping their game against the best.
  • Recent United away losses v Watford, Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Angles? I must say I like Man Utd's form v the top 8, only 1 loss in all of those home and away matches includes a win v Spurs.
  • Spurs are scoring 2 goals recently but noticeable Mourinho losses v Wolves, Liverpool and Chelsea suggests the marquee clubs may be a stretch too far for this current Mourinho side?

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Fiorentina v Brescia - 1.58 Fiorentina

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Fiorentina home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/9 such matches. Brescia have lost 8/11 away matches.

Fiorentina - 13th

  • Only 3 wins in 15. Market suggests redemption today.
  • 46% 0-0 at halftime home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Only 3 home wins v 14th, 17th and 20th, 2 were 1-0.

Brescia - 19th

  • Only 4 wins, 3 were 0-1 away.
  • Conceded last 10.
  • Beat 11th, 14th and 20th away 0-1.

Conclusions

  • The only reason a side with 3 wins in 15 is favourite is because their opponent has only 4 wins....all season, 3 were 0-1 away so the suggestion is to lay Brescia if they score but cover the 0-1. Fiorentina do look a bit ropey though!

14:00 - Atalanta v Lazio - 2.14 Atalanta

Atalanta - 4th

  • Research done before the Sassuolo result known - workload so great I have to start Monday!
  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • 12 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 13 and last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-3 last head to head.

Lazio - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses away v 3rd and 19th.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • No defeat in 21 and in 9 away.
  • Scored last 9 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Not sure this will be played but I have done the research already ahead of time.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expect 3 goals in total if that Atalanta pattern continues.
  • Atalanta through from the Champions League may feel a little deflated against inform Lazio and I would tentatively side with the away side in a match featuring 2 form sides.

19:00 - Inter v Sassuolo - 1.35 Inter

  • 1st goal: Inter Milan have scored first in 11/15 home matches while Sassuolo have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. Inter Milan have won 13/20 home matches against middle-third teams.

Inter - 3rd

  • Only 2 defeats.lost to Lazio last match.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored last 9 overall.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only losses came v the top 2.
  • 3-4 win v Sassuolo earlier this season.

Sassuolo - 12th

  • 3 wins, a draw and a 0-1 loss last 5 matches.
  • 33% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win v the top 6 came at home v Napoli. Both teams scored and Sassuolo conceded 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo's record for conceding 2 goals at least v the top 6 will leave them with a mountain to climb today.
  • Inter only lost to top 2 sides.
  • Possibility to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given the Inter record and Sassuolo's concession of those 2 goals. BUT the 33% strike rate is poor in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Roma v Sampdoria - 1.55 Roma

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/12 Roma home matches against bottom-six teams and in 8/8 Sampdoria away matches against top-six teams. Sampdoria have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Roma - 5th

  • 3 losses and 2 wins last 5 matches.
  • 2-2-1-4-4 goals scored recently.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home came last match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • 3+ goals scored at home v 16th and lower. 0-0 last head to head.

Sampdoria - 17th

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • 5-0-4-1-5 goals conceded recently.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 13 home or away.
  • 11/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Roma score 3 again as they do v 16th and lower, and in recent matches, they will blow Sampdoria aside. This is a Roma though wobbling a bit but 2 wins, scoring 4 goals in each, will give them confidence against a Samp conceding 4+ goals too often recently.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Frankfurt v Mgladbach - 2.36 Mgladbach

Frankfurt - 12th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
  • Scored last 5 at home.
  • 17% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 4 with 3 wins and a draw.
  • 4-2 loss last head to head.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Mgladbach - 5th

  • Research done before result of the home match v Koln mid week.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 came at home v Dortmund.
  • 2 consecutive away wins 1-4 and 2-3.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • 33% over 2.5 goals away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Mgladbach could eye 2 goals and concede but not lose but the intriguing element is Frank's 3 wins and a draw v the top 4 at home!! What do we make of that? Mgladbach did win 4-2 last head to head. Is that enough to convince you of the away side's credentials?

17:00 - Augsburg v Wolfsburg - 2.4 Wolfsburg

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/12 Augsburg home matches against top-half teams and in 9/11 Wolfsburg away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/17 Augsburg home matches.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Rangers v Celtic - 2.32 Celtic

  • As tasty as a deep-fried Mars Bar washed down with a can of Irn Bru. But as to a trading angle? That;'s anyone's guess. Rangers are the ones arguably dropping their form and I have recounted often that they are struggling to convince in front of goal. But anything can happen on Old Firm day

15:00 - Livingston v Hearts - 2.18 Livingston

Livingston

  • Only 2 home losses v Rangers and Aberdeen, top 4 sides.
  • 0-0 and 1-1 v Hearts this season.
  • No win in 4 matches. last 5 losses this season came away.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 2 matches, 2-2 with Celtic latest.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • 57% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hearts

  • Only 2 losses in 9 came v Celtic and Kilmarnock.
  • 2-3-2-0-2-3-1 goals scored recently.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 10/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only away wins came v Hibs.