Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

2pm Live chat webinar today.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7554013609302363395
is the link. Another good live chat yesterday included Identity Thief at Betfair SP of 23 at Aintree! Ker Ching! See you there, 14:00 for the Italians. Ciao!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Newcastle United v Arsenal - 2.14 Arsenal

  • 3 consecutive Arsenal 1-0 wins in head to heads.

Newcastle United (10th)

  • Not mathematically safe yet but top 10! Superb.
  • Only 3 defeats in 14 matches came v Manchester City (twice) and Liverpool. Interestingly the last team to beat Newcastle prior to this excellent run was Arsenal, one of those 1-0 wins.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive home wins without conceding.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 1 home win v top 13 came v Manchester United recently.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 3 consecutive wins came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats must give Newcastle hope - the likes of Bournemouth, Swansea and Brighton amongst the victors.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • No draw in 10.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • Have only 1 win away v 11th and lower.
  • 69% of goals scored and 67% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Nearly 50% 0-0's at halftime for both sides suggests the possibility for backing 0-0 pre match and hoping this stat continues. To trade out at halftime if still 0-0.
  • Newcastle glaringly have only 1 win a home v top 13 albeit that was a very recent win v Manchester United.
  • It is tough to trust Arsenal away. Value in laying Arsenal if they lead?

16:00 - Manchester United v West Brom - 1.19 Man Utd

Man Utd (2nd)

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 defeats this year came away from home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals before halftime in each of their last 3 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (31%).
  • All clean sheets at home v 11th and lower.

West Brom (20th)

  • 8 losses ended with a draw last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 6 losses in 7 away matches.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches and last 7 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (44%).
  • 0-0 v 3rd and 1-1 v 4th away.
  • Yet to score a 2nd goal away from home.
  • 18 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 10 points shy of 4th bottom but 15 points available. West Brom are down.
  • This should be a Man Utd win to nil on their form v 11th and lower, scoring 2+ goals.
  • Do note West Brom have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. The ideal is to lay West Brom if West Brom score first (or even back Man Utd).
  • If you keep faith in clean sheets for Man Utd, this opens up a correct score win to nil play.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:00 - Wolves v Birmingham - 1.4 Wolves

  • 0-1 Wolves in the last head to head.
  • A derby of sorts.

Wolves (1st)

  • I may need to speak to the lovely Rachel Riley from Countdown about my maths, but 11 points clear and 4 matches remaining (12 points).
  • A Wolves win today will win them the title.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil v top 5 teams augurs well for today.
  • 5 wins and a draw in 6 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (24%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 19th and lower.
  • 17 goals scored in the first half hour of home matches.
  • Scored first in 18/21 home matches.

Birmingham City (20th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Still in the relegation fight.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten the top 16 away (11 losses).
  • Only lost 1-0 to 1st at home and 2nd away.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer for Birmingham, a title win possibly for Wolves, and a midland derby of sorts. What a match in prospect.
  • Wolves are entering this match on the back of 2 clean sheet wins v top 5 sides. On its own, that should ensure a win v 20th.
  • But this is a 20th who have only lost 1-0 to 1st and 2nd.
  • I would have to be with Wolves today not to lose. Wolves should score first half but given the context of the match I would not go for that today.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Eibar v Alaves - 1.78 Eibar

  • 1-2 Eibar in the last head to head.

Eibar (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Alaves (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches came last match.
  • 3 losses and a 0-0 last 4 away matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Only 3 away wins v 6th, 8th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Poor recent form for both sides. Strictly on form, Eibar have shown they get a result v 13th and lower. Enough to side with them today?

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Levante - 1.24 Atl Madrid

  • 2-1 levante and 0-5 Atl Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 15 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 6 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (53%).
  • 100% home wins v 9th and lower conceding in only one of those matches.
  • 18 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 goals scored 61st-75th minute at home.

Levante (17th)

  • 8 points ahead of the relegation zone.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches appear at the perfect time.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away is 53% of matches.
  • 3-0 and 3-1 losses away v top 3.

Conclusions

  • As clear as the market. Alt Madrid should be eyeing a win to nil today and at their best, scoring 3 goals minimum.
  • Levante, note, are on a mission to avoid relegation and doing a fine job but may have to chalk this down as a loss given they have conceded 3 goals in each of their 2 defeats away v the top 3.
  • Atl Madrid are a strong 2nd half scoring side. I would not be concerned if they have not scored by halftime. They score shedloads 2nd half. If 0-0 at halftime I would back 3-0, 3-1, any other home score.

16:00 - Getafe v Espanyol - 2.24 Getafe

  • The home side tends to get the win in recent head to heads. Will that continue today?

Getafe (11th)

  • 5 losses and 2 wins last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 home defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.
  • 15 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Espanyol (14th)

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (20%).
  • Only 1 away win v bottom side.

Conclusions

  • On form we side with the home team not to lose, but this is a side with 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 home defeats. Espanyol are a side who can nick a 0-1 - ask Atl Madrid but on season long form, Espanyol have only the one win away.
  • Take a chance and lay Espanyol if they score first in the home Getafe remember they have only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.

19:45 - Malaga v Real Madrid - 1.28 Real

  • 0-2 Real and 3-2 Real Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.

Malaga (20th)

  • 21 points available if winning all remaining matches, 14 points to 4th bottom. Malaga are realistically doomed, Mr. Mainwaring.
  • Only 4 wins but did beat Villareal 1-0 last match at home.
  • 2 0-0's at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home (27%).
  • 100% defeats home and away v the top 5.
  • Failed to score in 5 of 7 matches played at home v top 8 sides.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (20%) Espanyol.
  • 100% wins home and away v bottom 3 scoring 3+ goals.
  • Led at halftime in 10/15 away matches.

Conclusions

  • On form, Real Madrid should be looking at scoring 3+ goals. A simple angle in.
  • This is post Champions League. Hangover?
  • Ordinarily with Real, we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I would delay entry here.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Fiorentina v Spal - 1.49 Fiorentina

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Fiorentina (7th)

  • 6 consecutive wins, 3 came at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • 6 wins and a 1-4 loss v Verona at home v 12th and lower.

SPAL (17th)

  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 were 1-1.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 15 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (19%).
  • Only wins away v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • A solid recent run from Fiorentina v an away team who can only beat the bottom 3 away should signal the home win.
  • Fiorentina tend to beat 12th and lower at home, bar that anomolus loss to Hellas Verona.

14:00 - AC Milan v Napoli - 1.87 Napoli

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 Napoli wins in head to heads.

Milan (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches came v Juventus.
  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • A good trade last match as we kept the faith in them not losing as Sassuolo scored late but did not win.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (40%).
  • 3/3 losses v top 2 this season.

Napoli (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses this season.
  • Identical recent form to Milan. 0-0 v Inter Milan 1-1 v Sassuolo.
  • No defeat in 15 at home.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form it's 3/3 losses for Milan v the top 2 this season. Indeed their only loss in 13 matches came v top of the league.
  • A tasty clash but a tough trading angle match. Go with the Milan form v top 2 and lay Milan if they score first? They are, though, much improved under Ginaro Gattuso.

14:00 - Bologna v Verona - 1.65 Bologna

  • 2-3 Bologna in the last head to head.

Bologna (11th)

  • 3 1-0 losses and a 1-1 in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (19%).
  • 2-3 win, 3-0 and 0-1 wins v bottom 2.
  • 2-1-2-1-2-2-3- goals scored at home v 11th and lower.

Hellas Verona (19th)

  • Need wins as they can escape the relegation zone.
  • 10 losses and 5 wins last 15 matches.
  • 6 losses and a win away recently.
  • No draw in 15 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in the last 4 away matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 2 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Do remember it's relegation six pointer time for Hellas Verona and they can pull off a coupon buster - as Fiorentina!
  • We should though expect Verona to concede at some point - 2+ goals conceded in their last 4 away and they have conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Bologna are scoring 2 goals regularlt v 11th and lower and if that pattern continues they will be hard to beat.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Benevento - 1.69 Sassuolo

  • 1-2 Sassuolo in the last head to head.

Sassuolo (14th)

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 at home.
  • Really poor goalscoring at home. Failed to score in 9 matches; scored 1 goal in 5 matches; scored 2 goals in 1 match.

Benevento (20th)

  • Only 4 wins this season all came at home.
  • 15 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 9/11 away matches v 5th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Little appeal. Home side have trouble scoring. Away side have trouble scoring and keep losing.

17:00 - Juventus v Sampdoria - 1.21 Juventus

  • 3-2 Samp last head to head is not the norm.
  • How will Juve be post- Champions League mugging mid week?

Juventus (1st)

  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 18 and in 10 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • 100% home wins v 6th and lower.
  • Led at halftime in 10/15 home matches.

Sampdoria (9th)

  • 3 consecutive away losses ended with a win.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Lost 3-2 away to 2nd, 3-2 away v 5th as well.

Conclusions

  • 3-2 anyone? Nice juicy odds. I hope so. I would lay Sampdoria if they lead by 1 or 2 goals today.
  • Juventus tend to score 2+ goals v 8th and lower.
  • Juventus do lead in 2/3rd of home matches at halftime if you want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Lazio v Roma - 2.64 Roma

  • A humdinger of a Rome derby.
  • 3-2 Roma, 1-3 Lazio, 2-1 Roma the last 3 head to heads.
  • Roma must be buzzing after their demolition of Barcelona.
  • Roma certainly have the away record. Only 1 loss away was v 1st in the league.
  • Only 1 win at home for Lazio v top 12 saw them score and concede in all bar one of those matches.
  • On form, Roma should not lose today but then since when has form been a factor in a big derby?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Schalke v Dortmund - 2.7 home and away

  • As tough as it gets as far as the market is concerned. They simply cannot split these 2.
  • 2-2, 0-0, 1-1, 4-4 the last 4 head to heads.
  • 2 top 3 sides and only basic research given the market.
  • 6 wins and a loss for Schalke last 7 matches - 5 of the wins were to nil.
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Schalke.
  • Schalke have scored in their last 23 matches.
  • 10 1-0 leads at halftime at home for Schalke.
  • v the top 4 at home, Schalke lost to 1st and drew with 4th 1-1.
  • Only 1 loss in 14 for Dortmund was v Bayern Munich.
  • Only 2 wins v top 13 away for Dortmund.
  • Both sides have poorer form v the top sides so I will defer this to the inplay stats.

17:00 - Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig - 2.4 Leipzig

  • 2.4 odds suggests another toughie in Germany.
  • New(ish) Werder manager so no head to heads look.

Werder (12th)

  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored in their last 5.
  • 4 consecutive home wins followed 2 wins and 3 draws. SOLID stuff.
  • v top 7, scored and conceded in 3/4 matches at home.

Leipzig (6th)

  • 2 draws, 2 wins and a loss v Leverkusen last 5 matches.
  • 1-3-1-2-0-2-1-2 goals in total before halftime in recent Leipzig matches.
  • v 12th and lower home and away, scored and conceded in 9/11 matches, with only 2 2-1 defeats.

Conclusions

  • As tough as the market suggests. Werder's form is excellent at home so a big tick there - unbeaten in 9 at home with 6 wins.
  • Then Leipzig tend to perform well v 12th and lower with only 2 losses in 11 matches and both teams scoring.
  • Usually with the hope of both teams contributing to the goals, I would back 2-2 pre match and let the goals come in!
  • Both sides have 29% 0-0's before halftime. Glass half full - that's 70% of matches with a goal before halftime. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the hope both teams score and the goals flow?

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Montpellier v Bordeaux - 2.04 Montpellier

  • 0-2 Montpellier in the last 2 head to heads.

Montpellier (7th)

  • 6 draws in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats since 16th September 2017.
  • No defeat in 9 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 10th and lower - scoring and conceding in 7/9 of those matches.

Bordeaux (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 came last match.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 13 away.
  • 5 losses and a draw away v top 6. 3 1-0 defeats v 4th-6th away.

Conclusions

  • No draw in 13 away plays a Montpellier side drawing in 6 of their last 7. One of these patterns will continue!
  • Montpellier are solid v 10th and lower. Enough to side with Montpellier today even if Bordeaux score first?

16:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Marseille - 1.62 Marseille

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Marseille in the last 2 head to heads.

Troyes (18th)

  • 3 wins since 29th November 2017 were all 1-0 home wins.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Failed to score in 5/6 home matches v top 8 teams.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Marseille (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches came v PSG and Lyon.
  • 1-2 and 1-3 wins last 2 away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches, 2 losses and a 0-0 last match.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away (19%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 100% wins v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. Marseille should win as they tend to v the bottom 3 this season home and away.
  • We might see Troyes last til halftime (50% 0-0's at halftime at home) but 10 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Unlikely there will be surprise. You never know though with Troyes needing points. I would though lay Troyes if Troyes scores first.

20:00 - Paris St-G v Monaco - 1.3 PSG

  • 1-2 PSG and 3-0 PSG last 2 head to heads.
  • 6 matches remain this season, that's an available 18 points.
  • Monaco are 14 points behind PSG making this a must-win match in order to postpone the inevitable.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 2 losses this season came away.
  • 16 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 25 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all 16 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12.5%).
  • Led at halftime in 14/16 home matches.

Monaco (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 17 and in 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away.
  • Scored 2 goals against 3rd and 4th without winning.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Monaco should not be winning this match. They are yet to beat the top 8 away.
  • If we keep faith in PSG scoring 2 goals today, then we back PSG if Monaco score first....and if Monaco score 2 goals as they did away v 3rd and 4th we still lay Monaco - they came out of those matches without a win.
  • With PSG there is a temptation to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. This is a top 2 clash though which is the negative.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:30 - Breda v Willem II - 2 Breda

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Breda (15th)

  • Relegation on both sides' minds.
  • 2 losses in their last 3.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win last 5 at home.
  • No draw in 13 at home.
  • wins at home have come v 4th-13th at home inclusive.

Willem II (14th)

  • Only 2 losses in 6 matches came away from home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 20 matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer for both teams. Willem II have conceded in their last 10 away so expect them to concede at some point.
  • Lay any late draw? Breda tend to avoid draws at home.

13:30 - Groningen v Roda JC - 1.76 Groningen

  • 2-2 in the last head to head.

Groningen (13th)

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th and lower.
  • Did beat 2nd bottom and bottom 4-0 and 1-0.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Roda (16th)

  • 3 consecutive wins, 2 came away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Wins away v 6th, 15th and 17th.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer and no clear angles.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Roda.
  • Both sides have had a poor number of clean sheets - both teams to score?

13:30 - Feyenoord v Utrecht - 1.55 Feyenoord

  • Feyenoord tend to win the home head to heads.

Feyenoord (4th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 11 and in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 2nd and 15th.

Utrecht (5th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3-2-2 conceded last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3-0 losses away v 1st and 3rd.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Utrecht's concession of 2+ goals in each of their last 3 away matches might see them struggle today v a Feyenoord failing to score in only 5 matches and winning their last 4 matches.
  • I'll enter the match with that assumption.

15:45 - PSV v Ajax - 2.56 home and away

  • No research for another big derby match.