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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 14, 2018

Big gap in matches today as there is no Italian Seria A. See you for a live chat 13:30 here at delayreacttrade.com and simultaneously on Twitter @drtclub.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

13:30 - Bournemouth v Arsenal - 1.75 Arsenal

  • Arsenal have scored 3 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads, winning 2 and drawing one. It was 3-3 at Bournemouth last time.
  • I do not have any confirmed transfer news, particularly for Arsenal.

Bournemouth (16th)

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 4-4-3-1-2 goals conceded recently.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • All defeats bar 2 have come v the top 9 teams in the league.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches v top 7 teams.

Arsenal (6th)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches but 5 of those were draws. Top 4 is looking tough for the Arsenal.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away from home now. Signs of recovery? but....3 draws and a win in their last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of their last 17 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away is nearly 50% of matches.
  • Failed to beat a team 15th and lower away, with 3 draws and a loss.0-1-0-1 scored.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half. 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal are putting together a good unbeaten run away from home but are liability to a bit of draw itis. They also have a poor record v 15th and lower and might be playing this match minus Sanchez.
  • Bournemouth though are conceding for fun and have failed to score in a whopping 6 of their 8 matches played v top 7 teams. On that latter basis, if Bournemouth score first, I would have to lay them.
  • Watch out for potential 0-0 at halftime. And watch out for goals 2nd half. We see plenty of 2nd half scoring from the Arsenal.

16:00 - Liverpool v Man City - 2.34 Man City

  • Far too tough to call. I will bow out of this high profile match I'm afraid and take my cues from the in-play stats.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - FC Koln v Mgladbach - 2.24 Mgladbach

  • 3 Mgladbach wins in the last 4 head to heads.

FC Koln (18th)

  • Only win came last match.
  • New Koln manager is 3 matches in. 3-4 loss to Freiburg (2 late Freiburg penalties nicked a win off Koln, 1-0 loss to Bayern and that first win, 1-0 at home v Koln.
  • This new manager has impacted the team.

Mgladbach (6th)

  • Only 5 losses this season but have lost their last 2 away matches without scoring.
  • Only 3 clean sheets so may give Koln a chance here.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime this season.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • FC Koln have clearly improved under their new manager. No coincidence it seems that their first win was secured last home match.
  • They are playing 6th in the league but FC Koln should be competitive today.
  • This match is tough to call given that new manager for Koln who may buck the odds.
  • Strictly based on Mgladbach, we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but with 2 1-0 results in a row, I suspect Koln will be parking the bus.

17:00 - Dortmund v Wolfsburg - 1.45 Dortmund

  • 5 consecutive Dortmund wins, scoring 5-5-3-3 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Will the Keystone Cops Dortmund end under new management?

Dortmund (3rd)

  • Yes Keystone Cops Dortmund are 3rd! I cannae believe it Captain.
  • Vast improvement under new manage, conceding 2 goals only once. 2 consecutive wins now too so the lurch from 4-4 to 2-1 is complete (although 4-4 did get us a 1.01 lay!).

Wolfsburg (12th)

  • How do you lose only 4 matches all season yet come in 12th position. The answer? DRAW-ITIS.
  • 9 draws in the last 13 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Beaten by Dortmund earlier this season away 0-3.
  • 2-2 or 1-1 v top 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund have improved vastly and are unlikely to be as generous defensively as they were. Wolfsburg will be lucky to get a score draw today and are layable all day if leading.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Dortmund signals a steadying of the ship.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - St Etienne v Toulouse - 2.28 St Etienne

  • 3 0-0's and a St Etienne win last 4 head to heads.
  • This looks on paper the least appealing of the French matches today.

St Etienne (16th)

  • 7 defeats and 3 draws last 10 matches. Toulouse must be pants if St Etienne are favs based on that.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Actually unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.

Toulouse (17th)

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 away win v 19th 0-1.
  • Scored 2 goals away in matches v 1st and 2nd but that was after conceding 9 goals in total.

Conclusions

  • Recent poor form for St Etienne is really off-putting but they are unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on St Etienne.
  • St Etienne actually threaten 2/3 goals v 9th and lower and should that pattern continue it's enough for a win. Toulouse scored 2 goals away only v top 2 but I feel that was after being trounced and these were consolation goals.

16:00 - Lyon v Angers - 1.47 Lyon

  • 1-2 Lyon and 3-3 last 2 head to heads.

Lyon (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 2-1 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v Lille was a shock.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 at home.
  • Tend to score first at home.

Angers (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No win v top 7 but 2 1-0 defeats and 3 draws.

Conclusions

  • If a team can stop Lyon scoring 2 goals at home, they tend to come away with something - see Lille.
  • Angers look set up to be tough to beat away v top teams so there is a threat to stifle Lyon.
  • Strictly on form, Lyon should be scoring 2 goals at least today. Angers, remember, have conceded in their last 10 matches so take them on if they lead today.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Lyon.

20:00 - Nantes v Paris St-G - 1.28 PSG

  • 2-4 goals scored by PSG consistently when these 2 meet.

Nantes (5th)

  • Last 3 wins were 1-0. 2 consecutive wins.
  • 7 1-0 wins and 3 2-1 wins this season.
  • PSG won 4-1 as recently as 18th November 2017.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home, 4 1-0's and 4 0-0's.
  • Beat Monaco 1-0 at home and 0-0 v 3rd. Could be a thorn for PSG today.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches, tending to win so.....over 2.5 goals tends to come in.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime all season (rather like Real Madrid) - a good angle to work with.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all matches v top 7.

Conclusions

  • PSG should outscore Nantes but there is a threat defensively from Nantes (if that makes sense) 1-0 and 0-0 v top 3 at home testifies to that.
  • With PSG failing to score only once, they should get a goal at least today.
  • PSG are unbeaten at halftime all season. If Nantes score first early first half, lay Nantes in the halftime market despite Nantes having 4 1-0's at halftime at home.
  • PSG should score 2 goals at least as they tend to do v top 7.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Levante v Celta Vigo - 2.36 Celta Vigo

  • 1-2 and 4-3 Celta in the last 2 head to heads.

Levante (16th)

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 3 0-0's in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Beat 13th at home 3-0 but that seems out of the blue.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (15th)

  • 1-3 win and 2-2 v Real Madrid last 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Have beaten 17th and 20th away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Celta should be advantaged here. Levante do 0-0's recently but in cases of 0-0's v teams who score readily, I always side with the latter.
  • I would have argued for both teams scoring but Levante have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.

15:15 - Alaves v Sevilla - 2.32 Sevilla

  • 2-1 Sevilla and 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Alaves (18th)

  • No draw this season.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • All defeats v top 7 at home.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 3 losses and a 0-0 in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats conceding 8 goals.
  • 6 defeats in 7 away matches. Sevilla are not 5th based on their away goal.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • Not played bottom 7 away.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sevilla have not played the bottom 7 away yet so there is a chance they will find this encounter easier.
  • Alaves have yet to draw this season and have lost to all top 7.
  • Sevilla away are obviously terrible but might get away with it today.
  • I would Lay any late draw here.
  • I would lay Alaves if Alaves scored first. A lowering of the sights for Sevilla.

17:30 - Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao - 2.76 Espanyol

  • 0-0 and 2-0 Athletic in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Odds again which suggest this is a match to leave alone ....possibly.

Espanyol (14th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Only 5 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 4 1-0 scorelines in 5 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 5 1-0 scorelines in 6 matches v top 12 teams at home (3 wins, 2 defeats).

Athletic Bilbao (10th)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches saw 2 goals scored in those wins.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 2-1-2-2-3-0 goals scored away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Note the market cannot split these teams. A very interesting match with 1-0 Espanyol taking on an Ath Bilbao who have the capability of scoring 2+ goals away v teams 10th and lower.
  • 1-0, 1-2 correct scores are possible trading angles for me today but I remind you that 2.76 favourite matches are very tough to read.

19:45 - Sociedad v Barcelona - 1.49 Barcelona

  • 5-2 and 3-2 Barcelona last 2 head to heads.

Sociedad (12th)

  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
  • 3-2-0-3 goals scored at home recently. They do have a goal threat but are very inconsistent.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 4 conceding 3 goals v top 4 at home.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 4 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away and 3 1-0 defeats at halftime away. Watch out for that!! Unbeaten all season.
  • Only away draws v top 3.
  • 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barcelona tend to win to nil away outside of the top 3.
  • Sociedad tend to concede 3 goals in defeat v top 4 at home.
  • I expect a Barcelona win. There is always a Sociedad goal threat but they are so inconsistent.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Sociedad but note Barca scoring the vast majority of their goals 2nd half.
  • Note Barca have lost at halftime away but are unbeaten all season so a good angle there.