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'Love is in the air. He latches on to the corner and heads it into the back of the net. What a striker this Love is!'.

It was a Valentine's Day Eve massacre yesterday for the Pre-Europa League and Pre-Champions League sides which leaves me a little cold with today's participants.

  • Liverpool lost;

  • PSG 1-0 to 1-1 but eventually won;

  • Porto 0-2 down but eventually drew;

  • Dortmund 1-1 and 1-2 but eventually drew;

  • Juventus lost;

  • AC Milan (Europa League) lost;

  • PSV (Europa League) drew 2-2 after leading;

  • Atl Madrid led 1-0 to 1-1 but eventually won.

You get the idea? It cannot be coincidence surely that these wobbles occur prior to the Champions League/Europa League. Had I stuck to my original plan of laying these sides if their odds went to 1.3 or lower, we'd have had success, particularly from a trading perspective. I have highlighted all of the pre-Europa League and pre-Champions League candidates today so we are fore-warned. I think I will just telegram today given the unique weekend it is. This will ensure that I don't get tempted in (a la Milan) with these Europa League/Champions League sides unless they are showing something. Milan for instance did not have a shot on target but I was blinded by my appreciation of Ibrahimovic's work!! So, see you on Telegram throughout today only. It will give me more focus on this tricky weekend. I must be very cautious today. We must learn from yesterday and all of the other pre-European Club competition weekends!

I will do a DRT review/preview video at DRT Facebook and leave you with the stats too for over 2.5 goals.


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Southampton v Wolves - 2.45 Southampton

Southampton - 12th

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 18 goals conceded last 5 matches. Ralph will be having a coronary.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.

Wolves - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 10 came at home v 9 man Arsenal. Alarming lack of stamped form.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches away.

Conclusions

  • And there is where I end. Saints are in woeful form, conceding 18 goals in 5 matches, albeit one match was red card affected. Wolves sole recent win came v 9 men and they have failed to score in 3/4 away matches. A match to leave alone or play via the in-play stats until we see some seeds of recovery for both sides.

14:00 - West Brom v Man Utd (Europa League 19th Feb) - 1.33 Man Utd

  • The Big Sam revolution is a bit like the early season Arteta revolution -falling flat on its Arse(nal).
  • 4-2-2-5-2-2-2 goals conceded and, yes you guessed it, the win was 2-3 for West Brom.
  • They have scored in 4 of their last 6 matches but notably failed to score v Man City and Tottenham.
  • Only 1 defeat for Man Utd since 7th November 2020. Loss, Draw, Win, Draw last 4 matches and gutted to have conceded a last gasp equaliser to make it 3-3 v Everton latest.
  • Angles? I see no end to Big Sam's woes and suggest a first. The first time he gets relegated as manager of a Premier League club. Man Utd are no longer in the Champions League so have no excuses. I expect an immediate United correction to that 3-3 dropping of 2 points. Note West Brom are likely to concede 2 goals yet again.

16:30 - Arsenal (Europa League 19th Feb) v Leeds - 1.83 Arsenal

  • After 6 wins and 2 0-0's, Arsenal have 2 away losses v Wolves and Aston Villa.
  • 2 0-0's in 3 at home.
  • I think we only really look at the form for this mini revival. 3 clean sheets in 4 at home for Arsenal.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches for Leeds. 3 wins in 4 away for Leeds came v West Brom, Newcastle and Leicester.
  • We tend to see over 2.5 goals matches away for Leeds.
  • Angles? The market is confident with Arsenal but you just never know what you will get with Leeds United so I would rather make my plays in-play.

19:00 - Everton v Fulham - 1.80 Everton

Everton - 7th

  • Only 2 losses since 5th December 2020. Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded in their last 6 and last 4 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 7th v 18th.
  • 2-3 win v Fulham earlier this season.
  • Only losses v 13th and lower have come v Newcastle.
  • 10/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Fulham - 18th

  • 8 draws in 11 matches recently.
  • 4 consecutive away draws.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 12 matches and no win in 5 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win v the top 17 came v Leicester 1-2.

Conclusions

  • Everton are conceding and Fulham have 8 draws in 11 matches. I would certainly be more confident in laying Fulham if Fulham scored first.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

13:00 - Brentford v Barnsley - 1.60 Brentford

  • No indepth research required here. In 3 consecutive matches now, Brentford have conceded first, equalised by halftime and scored 2+ goals 2nd half. So you know what to do if Barnsley somehow score first!!

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - St Johnstone v Celtic - 1.50 Celtic

St Johnstone - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v Rangers and that was a 1-0.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 0-0 at home recently.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime at home, only 3 at fulltime.
  • 0-2 loss and 1-1 in head to head this season.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.

Celtic - 2nd

  • What a bounce back last match against a St Mirren side who beat them 2-1 latest. Celtic beat them 0-4 last match.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2-2-1-4-2-4 goals scored recently.
  • 2 consecutive 0-4 away wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 13 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.
  • Only Rangers have beaten Celtic away.

Conclusions

  • You might want to back 0-0 pre match given the high % of 0-0 at halftime for both sides.
  • Certainly lay any 2nd half 0-0. Will Celtic continue to score 2 goals? They play a St Johnstone on a 3 match clean sheet record at home and having only lost 1-0 to Rangers recently.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Getafe v Real Sociedad (Europa League Friday Feb 19th v Man Utd) - 2.15 Sociedad

Getafe - 13th

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sociedad - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was a 3-2 loss v Sevilla.
  • 2-2-1-4 goals scored recently.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • v 10th and lower, only 1 loss home and away.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I quite like the Sociedad goalscoring. Will they be impacted by Europa League football? If not, both teams could score with Sociedad not losing.
  • Both sides concede goals first half so you may want to look to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:15 - Real Madrid (Champions League 25th Feb) v Valencia - 1.40 Real Madrid

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss since 5th December.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • A couple of 0-0's at halftime saw 2 goals 2nd half.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head.
  • 12/18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Valencia - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came v Atl Madrid away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal in 8 matches now.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 17 sides and have conceded 2 goals v the top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Valencia's record away v the top 17 is poor and should seal their fate. Real have no Champions League distractions this week at least and will seek revenge for a 4-1 loss last head to head. Valencia have maxed out at a single goal in 8 matches so if scoring first, will they really score a 2nd goal?

17:30 - Levante v Osasuna - 2.25 Levante

Levante - 9th

  • Only 2 losses since 26th October 2020.
  • Losses came away v Villareal and Barcelona.
  • 3 2-2 scorelines last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches and last 5 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches and last 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower. 1-3 win last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v 6th and lower.

Osasuna - 15th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away.
  • 11/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams tend to score and concede in Levante matches without Levante necessarily losing. That is how I will enter this match. Oppose Osasuna if Osasuna score first.

20:00 - Villarreal (19th Feb Europa League) v Real Betis - 1.91 Villareal

Villareal - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats came away v Barcelona and Sevilla.
  • 4 consecutive draws.
  • 5 draws and a win last 6 home matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Both teams scored all homes v top 17.
  • 7 goals scored at home 61st-75th minutes.

Betis - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches still saw Betis score 3 and 2 goals!
  • 3-2-2 scored last 3 away.
  • Scored last 8 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.
  • 11/14 goals scored 2nd half.
  • 9 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • This could be competitive and we know Emery loves the Europa League. Betis though simply have not beaten any top 11 side away. Both teams to score has a chance here. And 2nd half goals look obvious, particularly 65th minute + for Villareal and 75th+ minute for Betis.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Frankfurt v Koln - 1.50 Frankfurt

Frankfurt - 4th

  • Lump Frank in with Brentford and Olympiakos as a reliable team this season.
  • 7 wins and a 2-2 latest.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 9 matches.
  • 4 draws and 3 wins last 7 home matches.
  • Scored last 15 matches. Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • 8 wins and 2 draws v 12th and lower home and away.

Koln - 14th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in those wins.
  • 2 1-2 wins away in their last 3 away matches.
  • Unbeaten in 3 v the top 7 away 0-0 v 2nd, 1-2 wins v 6th and 7th.

Conclusions

  • Intriguing that Koln can beat Mgladbach and Dortmund away! They play a rock solid Frankfurt today and this match may not be as clear as I had first thought. Both teams to score has a chance here. If Frankfurt can score 2 goals, that will negate the usual Koln 1-2 away win. Koln need to keep Frank out.

17:00 - Wolfsburg v M'gladbach (Champions League 25th February) - 2.40 Wolfsburg

  • I will leave this to the in-play stats. 2 good form sides and tough to split.
  • Both sides have had 4 wins and 2 draws recently with Mgladbach adding a loss v Koln last match.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets for the Wolf.
  • Mgladbach have scored in their last 19 matches.
  • 3rd v 7th. Notably, Mgladbach away have not beaten a top 10 side, albeit scoring 3-3-0-2-1-2 goals!!

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Roma (Europa League 19th February) v Udinese - 1.73 Roma

Roma - 4th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • No defeat in 11 at home - 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored last 6 at home and 2+ goals last 3 home matches.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower. 0-1 win v Udinese last head to head.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese - 11th

  • 2 losses, 2 draws, 2 wins recently.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets includes v Inter Milan.
  • Scored last 7 away.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side.

Conclusions

  • Europa League impending for Roma but if seasonal form continues, they'll expect a win today but may be made to work for it if Udinese continue to strive for another clean sheet. It was 1-0 last head to head. I still must favour Roma. One eye on team news though with the Europa League looming.

14:00 - Cagliari v Atalanta (Champions League 25th Feb) - 1.40 Atalanta

Cagliari  - 18th

  • 7 defeats and a draw last 8 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

Atalanta - 7th

  • Only 4 defeats but lost to Lazio latest.
  • 0-0, 1-1, 0-3, 1-3 (loss), 3-3 latest. Which Atalanta turns up today? 1 goal or 3 goal?
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta led 3-0 last match only to end 3-3 v a poor Torino and could be a side to target if leading.
  • Ordinarily, this is an away win or at least a score draw for Atalanta. They won't be affected by the Champions League. They do throw in the odd headscratching performance. Let the in-play stats direct you. If you do not see enough shots on or off target, you'll know that it is one of those days!

14:00 - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.45 Fiorentina

  • 2.45 the favourite. Leave this to the in-play stats.

17:00 - Crotone v Sassuolo - 1.95 Sassuolo

Crotone - 20th

  • Only 3 wins which did come at home.
  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 10 at home.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-1 lost last head to head.

Sassuolo - 8th

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 10 matches and last 6 away.
  • v 9th and lower away, unbeaten.
  • 14/20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Favour Sassuolo on the pre-season form. Unbeaten away v 9th and lower. Sassuolo do score and concede so do we retain faith that they will equalise if conceding first?

19:45 - Inter Milan v Lazio (Champions League 24th Feb) - 1.75 Inter Milan

  • This match, for me, is one of those 'high profile' derby(ish) matches that I think it would be futile to research. Let the match unfold in-play and see whether the market's confidence in Inter Milan is founded.
  • Despite 4 consecutive clean sheets for Inter Milan, Lazio have 6 consecutive wins, scoring 2 goals at least, and wins over Roma and Atalanta.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen - 1.44 AZ

AZ Alkmaar - 4th

  • 2 consecutive home defeats so do you really expect them to lose a 3rd consecutive home match when priced NOT to do so?
  • Those were the only 2 matches in which AZ failed to score.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • No draw in  at home.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches at home v the top 9.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • 10/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Heerenveen - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 2 recent wins in 3 matches did come at home. One was the eyecatching scalp of Feyenoord and the other...well that came v Vitesse. Solid form right out of the blue.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away from home.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Heerenveen have thrown us a couple of wobblers recently, albeit at home. Straight out of nowhere comfortable wins v solid yardsticks Feyenoord and Twente. Are these anomalies or a turning of the corner? Their away form is poor. No win in 7 away and not beating a top 10 side away from home. So just brace for a potential improved Heerenveen performance against another big name club (compounded by AZ Struggles v the top 9 at home. The odds look short on that basis.

13:30 - Feyenoord v Willem-II - 1.35 Feyenoord

Feyenoord - 5th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 1-4 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.

Willem II - 16th

  • Only 3 wins came at home.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Scored in the last 10.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 11.
  • All defeats bar 1 v the top 8 home and away.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord have been wobbling of late. 3 losses in 4 matches is  poor relative to their season. They are unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower and have no Europa League commitments. They also meet a Willem II side who have simply lost to top 11 away. Enough to be with Feyenoord?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

13:30 - Utrecht v Venlo - 1.30 Utrecht

Utrecht - 9th

  • 3 wins and a 3-3 last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 1st.

VVV - 14th

  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss away last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 8 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 16.
  • 15/19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht's home form is excellent and with VVV winning only 1 away match v the top 16, I would not expect an away win.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • If VVV score, it is likely to be 2nd half.

15:45 - Vitesse v Twente - 1.70 Vitesse


PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

15:00 - Portimonense v Gil Vicente - 2.50 Portimonense

  • I won't research this one. I will stick with Braga and Benfica's matches.

16:30 - Santa Clara v Braga (19th Feb Europa League v Roma - 1.80 Braga


20:15 - Moreirense v Benfica (Europa League 19th Feb v Arsenal) - 1.36 Benfica


DANISH SUPER LIGA

13:00 - AaB Aalborg v Randers - 2.40 AaB Aalborg


13:00 - Vejle v Nordsjaelland - 2.30 Vejle


15:00 - Lyngby v Brondby - 1.75 Brondby


17:00 - Midtjylland v Horsens - 1.25 Midtjylland


19:00 - Odense BK v AGF Aarhus - 2.20 AGF Aarhus