DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, November 12, 2017

Another set of matches which are hard to read. We see 2nd leg World Cup qualifiers. Northern Ireland must score first. Croatia must avoid a 3-0 defeat. The ATP Tour Finals see easy enough trading angles. I think Federer is layable if he wins the first set. Zverev and Cilic the market tells us should be a 3-setter. If I am online I will live chat. But the ideal with a live chat is for us to have numerous opportunities all at once, rather than these dribs and drabs.
17:00 - Switzerland v Northern Ireland - 1.46 Switzerland
- Now we have something to work with. The first leg was a tight 0-0 and then that was broken by a contentious penalty awarded to the Swiss.
- They bring a 1-0 lead into this home tie.
- Quite simply Northern Ireland must match the Swiss and score first.
- 6 consecutive wins at home for the Swiss but 3 of those wins were v the likes of Faroe Islands, latvia and Andorra.
- Northern Ireland away only beat Azerbaijan and San Marino.
- Is 0-0 in play again as it was in the first leg? Or with Northern Ireland need ensure an earlier breakthrough?
- Very hard to call as tactics are everything.
19:45 - Greece v Croatia - 2.3 Croatia
- Tactics will play a huge part here too. It is 4-1 Croatia from the first leg which gives them breathing space against a Greek side who only scored more than 2 goals a game against the likes of Gibraltar and Cyprus.
- Croatia need only avoid a 3-0 defeat today.
- Croatia are the better side, have the better attacking force but the need to 'go for it' is not there today. That makes this a toughie to read.
LEAGUE ONE
14:30 - AFC Wimbledon v Peterborough - 2.66 AFC
- 0-1 Wimbledon and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 22nd v 9th in League One, a league I tend not to trade but during this International Break, and with 15 games played, we may get a trading angle.
AFC Wimbledon
- Only 4 wins.
- Failed to score in 10 matches this season.
- 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
- Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
- Beat 7th 3-1 but that is only 1 of 2 wins in 11 matches v top 16 teams.
- Only 1 draw v top 19 sides.
Peterborough
- Only 1 win in 6 matches came last match.
- No win in 5 away matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Not played bottom 5 yet and AFC are 22nd in the league.
- 10 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Ahh, a 2.66 favourite. ON league position, we are with Peterborough today but they have no win in 5 matches.
- Peterborough are a strong scorer and conceder 2nd half so on that basis, I would take on any 0-0 2nd half.
- Lay any late draw based on AFC tending to avoid them v top 19 sides.
ATP Tour Finals LONDON
Roger Federer v Jack Sock - 1.09 Roger Federer
- 2nd v 9th in the World. Jack Sock has done superbly to break the top 10.
- It has been 3 consecutive 2-0 set wins for Roger in head to heads, latterly in 2 semi-finals and one in 2017.
- On the sole indoor hard head to head, Roger won 2-0 (indoor hard today).
- Jack Sock looks to me like a slogger. He won Paris Masters recently, but there were 3 3-set matches, and in his first 3 matches there were 4 tie-breaker sets.
- Jack did manage to take Roger to a 2nd set tie breaker last time these 2 met.
- Prior to Paris, the Sock form smelled bad on hard surfaces.
- Federer continues to confound. Final, quarter final (US Open), Tournament Win, and Tournament win in his last 4 tournaments. Del Potro beat him in the US Open, and he beat Del Potro in the last 2 Tournaments.
- Roger's last 3 3-set matches saw him lose the first set. We can only wish for that today as it is a clear trading angle in.
- Watch for a tight second set. I would be happy to lay Federer if he wins the 1st set given that Sock took him to a tie breaker earlier this year 2nd set.
Alexander Zverev v Marin Cilic - 1.96 Zverev
- The market cannot split these 2 teams. One has to be odds-on simply to cover the over-round.
- This immediately marks this as a potential 2-1 scoreline. You could back 2-1 each player pre match at 4.5 and 4.4 and profit should this go the distance.
- Alternately, lay the first set winner.
- 3rd v 5th in the World and that is what we see this ATP Tour Finals, the World's Best.
- It's 3-1 Zverev in the 4 head to heads and a current 3-0 Zverev.
- The last 2 matches have gone 3 sets which is what we hope for today.
- A tie breaker is highly likely today.
- Zverev has had a poor run coming into this tournament.
- 2nd round US Open, quarter finals Shenzen (only 2 matches played), semi finals in Beijing, 2 round in Shanghai (walk over first round), quarters in Vienna (3 matches played) and out first round Paris Masters.
- In contrast, Cilic has 3 consecutive semi-final places and a quarter final place last 4 tournaments.
- This does look like a 3-setter waiting to happen. I would have said, before looking at the form, that Zverev was the most vulnerable today but then in head to heads, he consistently has Cilic's number.
- Laying the first set winner will give us a possibility of a trade here.