DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 12, 2017

Traders v Gamblers yesterday. Traders won. 2-1/1-2 Hoffenheim scoreline for trading purposes. A profit was available at 1-1. Did you take it or did you gamble for a big payout if a 3rd goal arrived (which it did not). Monaco 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score backed at halftime at 0-0. Match gets to 2-1. 85 odds for 3-1 were available to trade out at 6. Did you trade out or gamble for that 3-1 and a massive payout?
I hope for more of the same today. The chance of a massive payout. See you at 13:30 for the live chat.
11:00 - Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - 2.24 Sociedad
- 0-1 Sociedad and 3-2 Ath Bilbao win in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 5th v 7th in Spanish La Liga.
Sociedad 100% stats
- All 3 home defeats v top 6.
- No 0-0.
Sociedad other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
Ath Bilbao 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 15 side away.
- No over 4.5 goals away.
Ath Bilbao other stats
- 3 consecutive away defeats.
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
Conclusions
- A match with few patterns. Ath Bilbao have not beaten a top 15 side away but only 1 match played v 4th-11th away.
- A match for in-play stats.
11:30 - Sassuolo v Bologna - 2 Sassuolo
- 0-2 Bologna and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 12th v 16th in Italian Seria A.
Sassuolo 100% stats
- All wins have come v 14th and lower.
Sassuolo other stats
- 3 consecutive home defeats.
Bologna 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Not beaten a top 15 side away.
- Not scored 2 goals in an away match v top 15.
Bologna other stats
- 5 defeats and a draw last 6 matches.
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- 10 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusion
- Sassuolo should be confident in getting a result today. Their wins are exclusively v teams below them in the league.
- Lay Bologna if Bologna score first.
- Watch out for late concessions Bologna - 75th minute onwards, particularly if they are leading!
13:30 - Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar - 1.48 Feyenoord
- 3-1 and 0-4 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 1st v 6th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Feyenoord 100% stats
- Undefeated at home.
- Not lost at halftime at home.
- Scored in all home matches.
- No 0-0.
Feyenoord other stats
- Only 2 defeats, one came last match.
- Failed to score only in those 2 defeats.
- 7 consecutive home wins.
- Scored 2+ goals in 3 consecutive home matches.
- 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
- 23 goals scored at home in the last 15 minutes of each half.
AZ Alkmaar 100% stats
AZ Alkmaar other stats
- 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 7 away matches.
- Conceded in their last 14 matches.
- 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches v top 8 teams.
Conclusions
- Both teams could score today. I would oppose any late 1-1 draw and expect AZ to end their recent 1-1 draw sequences. 2-1 looks an obvious starting point given that AZ have had 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches v top 8 teams away.
- Feyenoord have scored in all matches at home so expect them to chip in, although last week they froze when long odds on favourites away.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but would wait 30th minute.
- Note late goals 2nd half too if Feyenoord are floundering. 75th+ minute.
14:00 - Napoli v Crotone - 1.17 Napoli
- 1-2 to Napoli earlier in the season.
- This is 3rd v 19th in Italian Seria A.
Napoli 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
- Scored 2 goals at least v bottom 2 sides.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Napoli other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Lost their last home match.
- 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Crotone 100% stats
- No away win.
- All defeats v top 7 sides.
- Conceded in all aways.
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
- Not scored in both halves away.
Crotone other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- 3 1-0 defeats in their last 4 away matches.
- Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- 9 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusions
- 2 goals are expected of Napoli today (although 1.17 odds suggests 3/4).
- I do note recent Crotone 1-0 defeats way which may suggest a parking the bus mentality.
- Napoli score heavily 2nd half at home so note that.
14:00 - Inter v Atalanta - 1.88 Inter
- 1-1 and 2-1 Atalanta in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 6th v 5th in Italian Seria A.
Inter Milan 100% stats
- Scored in every home match.
- No draw at home v top 15 sides.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 0-0.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Inter Milan other stats
- 10 wins in 13 matches - great form.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 8 consecutive home wins ended with a loss v Roma.
- Scored in their last 13 home matches.
- 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Atalanta other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 win away v top 10.
- 15 of 22 goals scored away came 1st half.
Conclusions
- Atalanta's away form v top 10 sides suggests struggles today. That, and Inter Milan scoring 2/3 goals regularly at home suggests to me to lay Atalanta if Atalanta score first.
- Lay any late draw.
- I am with Inter Milan today.
14:00 - Fiorentina v Cagliari - 1.43 Fiorentina
- 3-5 Fiorentina in the last head to head. Cagliari scored first and then were absolutely battered. More of the same today please!
- This is 8th v 13th in Italian Seria A.
Fiorentina 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home.
- Scored in every home match v teams below them.
Fiorentina other stats
- Only 1 win in 5 matches.
- 3 score draws in their last 4 home matches 2-2 and higher.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
- Scored 2+ goals in 7 matches at home.
Cagliari 100% stats
- Conceded in all away matches.
- No 0-0.
Cagliari other stats
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded in their last 23 matches.
- Only 1 away win v top 17.
- Opponents have scored first in 11/14 away matches.
Conclusions
- What to do with the 2-2 and 2 3-3 scorelines for Fiorentina at home recently? It suggests perhaps that we take a stance of being with Fiorentina throughout this match (and hope that Cagliari lead 0-3 at some point!).
- Fiorentina tend to concede so Cagliari may strike a blow. Fiorentina should remain unbeaten at home given Cagliari have just one away win v top 17 sides.
- If somehow this match is 0-0, remember Cagliari have only 1 clean sheet all season.
14:30 - Schalke v Augsburg - 1.78 Schalke
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
- This is 13th v 12th in the German Bundesliga.
Schalke 100% stats
- No 0-0 at home.
- All home defeats v top 11.
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Schalke other stats
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- All wins at home v 11th and lower scoring 3-3-1-3 goals.
Augsburg 100% stats
- All away wins have come v teams 14th and lower.
- No over 3.5 goals matches away.
Augsburg other stats
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 5 away.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- There is an argument for Augsburg feeling confident here. 1) Schalke all home defeats v top 11 - Augsburg are 12th. 2) Augsburg all away wins v 14th and lower - Schalke are 13th.
- The market does not agree though.
- This might be 0-0 at halftime but I would expect a goal at least. Augsburg, if they are to win, tend to score 2 goals.
15:15 - Deportivo v Barcelona - 1.25 Barcelona
- Brilliant mid week, will this be a Barcelona let-down?
- 12 goals scored by Barcelona in their last 2 head to heads.
- This is 17th v 1st in Spanish La Liga.
Deportivo 100% stats
- Lost to all top 3 conceding 3 goals at least.
- No home match with 4 goals exactly at home.
Deportivo other stats
- 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 last 4 home matches included a 1-1 v Atl Madrid.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
- 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Barcelona 100% stats
- Scored in all away matches.
- Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
- No away 0-0.
Barcelona other stats
- Failed to score in only one match.
- No defeat in 19 matches.
- 26 of 37 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- My angle here? Deportivo might last until halftime - let's hope they do. They have a strong 2nd half concession rate and Barca score absolute shedloads 2nd half away.
- Barcelona should have not difficulty. Do note Depor's 5 under 2.5 goals matches at home but they tend to concede 3 goals at least v the top 3.
15:45 - Ajax v Twente - 1.32 Ajax
- Ajax tend to win with ease at home in head to heads. Twente are more competitive when the head to heads are at their place.
- This is 2nd v 7th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Ajax 100% stats
- Scored in every home match.
- No 0-0.
Ajax other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- Only 2 defeats.
- No defeat in 10 at home.
- 11 goals scored directly after halftime at home.
Twente 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 9 side away.
- Beat Ajax 1-0 at home.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
Twente other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
- 92% over 1.5 goals away.
Conclusions
- Ajax tend to win head to heads at home. Do note that Dutch football was terrible last week as far as the performance of favourites was concerned.
- Both teams may score and Twente not win today. Twente away matches tend to see 2 goals total.
- Ajax are big scorers directly after halftime at home so note that.
- I must oppose Twente if Twente lead.
16:00 - Liverpool v Burnley - 1.25 Liverpool
- 2-0 to the home side in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 4th v 12th. Liverpool are clinging onto the top 4 and have the top 2/3 in their sights.
- Burnley are on 31 points and have that elusive 40 point marker as their target. Most likely this will be achieved via home form.
Liverpool 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v top 15 sides.
- Unbeaten home and away v the top 11.
- Scored 2+ goals in all home matches v 8th and lower.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
Liverpool other stats
- Only 2 wins in 8, but both impressive home wins, 2-0 v Tottenham and 3-1 v Arsenal.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 10 at home.
Burnley 100% stats
- No away win.
- Not led at halftime away.
- All defeats away v top 5, albeit 3 were 2-1 scorelines.
Burnley other stats
- Only 6 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
- Scored in their last 11 matches.
Conclusions
- The obvious angle is the one we saw in a recent Burnley away match v Tottenham. Burnley scored first and lost 2-1.
- Burnley do have a goal in them. Our only hope for profit it seems is in hoping they score first.
- Liverpool should be winning at home now they have a confidence booster against 2 North London clubs.
- Both teams are likely to score in that Liverpool win.
16:30 - Hamburg v Mgladbach - 2.74 Mgladbach
- 1-2 to Mgladbach in the last head to heads.
- This is 16th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.
- Please note I would not ordinarily research 2.74 favourite matches but this is only 1 of 2 German matches today.
Hamburg 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
- No 0-0 at home.
Hamburg other stats
- Failed to score in only 2 of 14 matches.
- 4 wins in their last 5 home matches.
- Only defeats at home v top 6.
Mgladbach 100% stats
- 3 clean sheets in 3 matches away v 14th and lower.
- Not scored in both halves away.
Conclusions
- This is a good example of why the market has priced up the favourite at 2.74. We can make a firm argument for both sides (Hamburg are unbeaten at home outside the top 4).
- Mgladbach have not conceded away v 14th and lower and meet 16th today.
- I will defer to in-play stats. If you see a market with the favourite at these odds, these matches are typically not good trading candidates.
17:30 - Celta Vigo v Villareal - 2.62 Villareal
- 0-0 and 5-0 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.
- Remember, 2.62 favourites suggest that the market cannot split the 2 teams. You must remember this when trading these matches.
- This is 11th v 5th in the Spanish La Liga.
Celta Vigo 100% stats
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
- No home match with 2-0/0-2.
Celta Vigo other stats
- 5 clean sheets only.
- 3-0-3-1-3-2 goals scored recently at home. Have the potential to score big.
- All defeats bar one this season came v teams 8th and higher.
- 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Villareal 100% stats
- Unbeaten at halftime away.
- Unbeaten away v 9th and lower but note, have yet to play 10th-14th inclusive.
- Not conceded in both halves.
- Not conceded 1st half away.
Villareal other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 12 matches v Real Madrid and Valencia.
- No defeat in 6 away.
Conclusions
- I tend to avoid 2.62 fav matches but this is Spanish La Liga and 2 teams we know.
- For me it looks like Villareal should be favoured today. Celta almost exclusively lose to teams 8th and higher. That is not coincidence surely?
- Villareal are on a solid run of late with only 2 defeats in 12 matches and unbeaten v teams 9th and lower away (albeit not played 10th-14th).
- Villareal look as if they will score first if there is to be a goal before halftime. They are yet to concede first half away.
19:45 - Palermo v Roma - 1.43 Roma
- 4-5-4 goals scored by Roma in their last 3 head to heads.
- This is 18th v 2nd in the Italian Seria A.
Palermo 100% stats
- Will remain bottom 3 even with a win.
- No 0-0.
- Not beaten any top 14 teams at home (10 losses and a draw).
- Not scored 2 goals at home.
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Palermo other stats
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- All defeats at home v top 9.
- 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Roma 100% stats
- Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
- All clean sheets away v 14th and lower.
Roma other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 11 wins in 15 matches.
- No draw in 16 matches.
Conclusions
- With only 3 wins, Palermo are highly unlikely to get the win so note that if they lead at any stage.
- We may see a Roma win to nil. How would I play this? Back correct score 2nd half of 0-0 at halftime. We only have to choose between scorelines to nil.
- We are likely not to see a trade here as Roma should score first and assert. But be ready...
20:00 - Lorient v PSG - 1.36 PSG
- 5-0 the last time these 2 met, to PSG, in French Ligue 1.
- Let's gloss over that 6-1 loss to Barcelona. How much of an impact will that have on today's match?
- This is 20th v 2nd in French Ligue 1 and is a must win for PSG who trail Monaco. It is a must win for Lorient for completely different reasons of course.
Lorient 100% stats
- Lost all matches v top 3.
- Failed to score in 3 matches v top 2.
- No 0-0.
Lorient other stats
- 4 consecutive defeats.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
- 12 goals scored in the 2nd half at home out of 16.
PSG 100% stats
- No away draw.
- All wins home and away v 14th and lower.
- Not conceded 2 goals in a match v 14th and lower.
PSG other stats
- 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 matches.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 2-3-3-5 goals scored in recent aways.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- What impact with the Champions League calamity have on PSG today? They must win in order to keep tabs on French Ligue 1 title as the 2 Cote D'azur teams are bang in contention.
- On form, Lorient should have trouble even scoring and PSG have scored 11 goals in 3 aways so should simply outscore Lorient.
- If Lorient score first, lay them or even back PSG as PSG tend not to concede that 2nd goal.