Traders v Gamblers yesterday. Traders won. 2-1/1-2 Hoffenheim scoreline for trading purposes. A profit was available at 1-1. Did you take it or did you gamble for a big payout if a 3rd goal arrived (which it did not). Monaco 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score backed at halftime at 0-0. Match gets to 2-1. 85 odds for 3-1 were available to trade out at 6. Did you trade out or gamble for that 3-1 and a massive payout?

I hope for more of the same today. The chance of a massive payout. See you at 13:30 for the live chat.

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11:00 - Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - 2.24 Sociedad

• 0-1 Sociedad and 3-2 Ath Bilbao win in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 5th v 7th in Spanish La Liga.

Sociedad 100% stats

• All 3 home defeats v top 6.
• No 0-0.

Sociedad other stats

• Failed to score in only 5 matches.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 15 side away.
• No over 4.5 goals away.

Ath Bilbao other stats

• 3 consecutive away defeats.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.

Conclusions

• A match with few patterns. Ath Bilbao have not beaten a top 15 side away but only 1 match played v 4th-11th away.
• A match for in-play stats.

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11:30 - Sassuolo v Bologna - 2 Sassuolo

• 0-2 Bologna and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 12th v 16th in Italian Seria A.

Sassuolo 100% stats

• All wins have come v 14th and lower.

Sassuolo other stats

• 3 consecutive home defeats.

Bologna 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• Not beaten a top 15 side away.
• Not scored 2 goals in an away match v top 15.

Bologna other stats

• 5 defeats and a draw last 6 matches.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• 10 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusion

• Sassuolo should be confident in getting a result today. Their wins are exclusively v teams below them in the league.
• Lay Bologna if Bologna score first.
• Watch out for late concessions Bologna - 75th minute onwards, particularly if they are leading!

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13:30 - Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar - 1.48 Feyenoord

• 3-1 and 0-4 Feyenoord in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 1st v 6th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Feyenoord 100% stats

• Undefeated at home.
• Not lost at halftime at home.
• Scored in all home matches.
• No 0-0.

Feyenoord other stats

• Only 2 defeats, one came last match.
• Failed to score only in those 2 defeats.
• 7 consecutive home wins.
• Scored 2+ goals in 3 consecutive home matches.
• 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
• 23 goals scored at home in the last 15 minutes of each half.

AZ Alkmaar 100% stats

• No 0-0.

AZ Alkmaar other stats

• 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
• Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• Scored and conceded in their last 7 away matches.
• Conceded in their last 14 matches.
• 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

• Both teams could score today. I would oppose any late 1-1 draw and expect AZ to end their recent 1-1 draw sequences. 2-1 looks an obvious starting point given that AZ have had 4 2-1 scorelines in 5 matches v top 8 teams away.
• Feyenoord have scored in all matches at home so expect them to chip in, although last week they froze when long odds on favourites away.
• I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but would wait 30th minute.
• Note late goals 2nd half too if Feyenoord are floundering. 75th+ minute.

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14:00 - Napoli v Crotone - 1.17 Napoli

• 1-2 to Napoli earlier in the season.
• This is 3rd v 19th in Italian Seria A.

Napoli 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
• Scored 2 goals at least v bottom 2 sides.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Napoli other stats

• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Lost their last home match.
• 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Crotone 100% stats

• No away win.
• All defeats v top 7 sides.
• Conceded in all aways.
• No over 4.5 goals matches away.
• Not scored in both halves away.

Crotone other stats

• Only 3 wins.
• 3 1-0 defeats in their last 4 away matches.
• Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
• 9 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

• 2 goals are expected of Napoli today (although 1.17 odds suggests 3/4).
• I do note recent Crotone 1-0 defeats way which may suggest a parking the bus mentality.
• Napoli score heavily 2nd half at home so note that.

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14:00 - Inter v Atalanta - 1.88 Inter

• 1-1 and 2-1 Atalanta in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 6th v 5th in Italian Seria A.

Inter Milan 100% stats

• Scored in every home match.
• No draw at home v top 15 sides.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• No 0-0.
• No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Inter Milan other stats

• 10 wins in 13 matches - great form.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• 8 consecutive home wins ended with a loss v Roma.
• Scored in their last 13 home matches.
• 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atalanta other stats

• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
• Only 1 win away v top 10.
• 15 of 22 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

• Atalanta's away form v top 10 sides suggests struggles today. That, and Inter Milan scoring 2/3 goals regularly at home suggests to me to lay Atalanta if Atalanta score first.
• Lay any late draw.
• I am with Inter Milan today.

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14:00 - Fiorentina v Cagliari - 1.43 Fiorentina

• 3-5 Fiorentina in the last head to head. Cagliari scored first and then were absolutely battered. More of the same today please!
• This is 8th v 13th in Italian Seria A.

Fiorentina 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home.
• Scored in every home match v teams below them.

Fiorentina other stats

• Only 1 win in 5 matches.
• 3 score draws in their last 4 home matches 2-2 and higher.
• Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
• Scored 2+ goals in 7 matches at home.

Cagliari 100% stats

• Conceded in all away matches.
• No 0-0.

Cagliari other stats

• Only 1 clean sheet.
• Conceded in their last 23 matches.
• Only 1 away win v top 17.
• Opponents have scored first in 11/14 away matches.

Conclusions

• What to do with the 2-2 and 2 3-3 scorelines for Fiorentina at home recently? It suggests perhaps that we take a stance of being with Fiorentina throughout this match (and hope that Cagliari lead 0-3 at some point!).
• Fiorentina tend to concede so Cagliari may strike a blow. Fiorentina should remain unbeaten at home given Cagliari have just one away win v top 17 sides.
• If somehow this match is 0-0, remember Cagliari have only 1 clean sheet all season.

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14:30 - Schalke v Augsburg - 1.78 Schalke

• 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
• This is 13th v 12th in the German Bundesliga.

Schalke 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• All home defeats v top 11.
• No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Schalke other stats

• Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• All wins at home v 11th and lower scoring 3-3-1-3 goals.

Augsburg 100% stats

• All away wins have come v teams 14th and lower.
• No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Augsburg other stats

• Only 6 clean sheets.
• Conceded in their last 5 away.
• 6 0-0's at halftime away.
• 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• There is an argument for Augsburg feeling confident here. 1) Schalke all home defeats v top 11 - Augsburg are 12th. 2) Augsburg all away wins v 14th and lower - Schalke are 13th.
• The market does not agree though.
• This might be 0-0 at halftime but I would expect a goal at least. Augsburg, if they are to win, tend to score 2 goals.

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15:15 - Deportivo v Barcelona - 1.25 Barcelona

• Brilliant mid week, will this be a Barcelona let-down?
• 12 goals scored by Barcelona in their last 2 head to heads.
• This is 17th v 1st in Spanish La Liga.

Deportivo 100% stats

• Lost to all top 3 conceding 3 goals at least.
• No home match with 4 goals exactly at home.

Deportivo other stats

• 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 last 4 home matches included a 1-1 v Atl Madrid.
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
• 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona 100% stats

• Scored in all away matches.
• Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
• No away 0-0.

Barcelona other stats

• Failed to score in only one match.
• No defeat in 19 matches.
• 26 of 37 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• My angle here? Deportivo might last until halftime - let's hope they do. They have a strong 2nd half concession rate and Barca score absolute shedloads 2nd half away.
• Barcelona should have not difficulty. Do note Depor's 5 under 2.5 goals matches at home but they tend to concede 3 goals at least v the top 3.

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15:45 - Ajax v Twente - 1.32 Ajax

• Ajax tend to win with ease at home in head to heads. Twente are more competitive when the head to heads are at their place.
• This is 2nd v 7th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Ajax 100% stats

• Scored in every home match.
• No 0-0.

Ajax other stats

• Failed to score only once.
• Only 2 defeats.
• No defeat in 10 at home.
• 11 goals scored directly after halftime at home.

Twente 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 9 side away.
• Beat Ajax 1-0 at home.
• No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Twente other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
• 92% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

• Ajax tend to win head to heads at home. Do note that Dutch football was terrible last week as far as the performance of favourites was concerned.
• Both teams may score and Twente not win today. Twente away matches tend to see 2 goals total.
• Ajax are big scorers directly after halftime at home so note that.
• I must oppose Twente if Twente lead.

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16:00 - Liverpool v Burnley - 1.25 Liverpool

• 2-0 to the home side in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 4th v 12th. Liverpool are clinging onto the top 4 and have the top 2/3 in their sights.
• Burnley are on 31 points and have that elusive 40 point marker as their target. Most likely this will be achieved via home form.

Liverpool 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home v top 15 sides.
• Unbeaten home and away v the top 11.
• Scored 2+ goals in all home matches v 8th and lower.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Liverpool other stats

• Only 2 wins in 8, but both impressive home wins, 2-0 v Tottenham and 3-1 v Arsenal.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored in their last 10 at home.

Burnley 100% stats

• No away win.
• Not led at halftime away.
• All defeats away v top 5, albeit 3 were 2-1 scorelines.

Burnley other stats

• Only 6 clean sheets.
• Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
• Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
• Scored in their last 11 matches.

Conclusions

• The obvious angle is the one we saw in a recent Burnley away match v Tottenham. Burnley scored first and lost 2-1.
• Burnley do have a goal in them. Our only hope for profit it seems is in hoping they score first.
• Liverpool should be winning at home now they have a confidence booster against 2 North London clubs.
• Both teams are likely to score in that Liverpool win.

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16:30 - Hamburg v Mgladbach - 2.74 Mgladbach

• 1-2 to Mgladbach in the last head to heads.
• This is 16th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.
• Please note I would not ordinarily research 2.74 favourite matches but this is only 1 of 2 German matches today.

Hamburg 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
• No 0-0 at home.

Hamburg other stats

• Failed to score in only 2 of 14 matches.
• 4 wins in their last 5 home matches.
• Only defeats at home v top 6.

Mgladbach 100% stats

• 3 clean sheets in 3 matches away v 14th and lower.
• Not scored in both halves away.

Conclusions

• This is a good example of why the market has priced up the favourite at 2.74. We can make a firm argument for both sides (Hamburg are unbeaten at home outside the top 4).
• Mgladbach have not conceded away v 14th and lower and meet 16th today.
• I will defer to in-play stats. If you see a market with the favourite at these odds, these matches are typically not good trading candidates.

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17:30 - Celta Vigo v Villareal - 2.62 Villareal

• 0-0 and 5-0 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.
• Remember, 2.62 favourites suggest that the market cannot split the 2 teams. You must remember this when trading these matches.
• This is 11th v 5th in the Spanish La Liga.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

• Unbeaten at halftime at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• No 0-0 at home.
• No home match with 2-0/0-2.

Celta Vigo other stats

• 5 clean sheets only.
• 3-0-3-1-3-2 goals scored recently at home. Have the potential to score big.
• All defeats bar one this season came v teams 8th and higher.
• 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Villareal 100% stats

• Unbeaten at halftime away.
• Unbeaten away v 9th and lower but note, have yet to play 10th-14th inclusive.
• Not conceded in both halves.
• Not conceded 1st half away.

Villareal other stats

• Only 2 defeats in 12 matches v Real Madrid and Valencia.
• No defeat in 6 away.

Conclusions

• I tend to avoid 2.62 fav matches but this is Spanish La Liga and 2 teams we know.
• For me it looks like Villareal should be favoured today. Celta almost exclusively lose to teams 8th and higher. That is not coincidence surely?
• Villareal are on a solid run of late with only 2 defeats in 12 matches and unbeaten v teams 9th and lower away (albeit not played 10th-14th).
• Villareal look as if they will score first if there is to be a goal before halftime. They are yet to concede first half away.

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19:45 - Palermo v Roma - 1.43 Roma

• 4-5-4 goals scored by Roma in their last 3 head to heads.
• This is 18th v 2nd in the Italian Seria A.

Palermo 100% stats

• Will remain bottom 3 even with a win.
• No 0-0.
• Not beaten any top 14 teams at home (10 losses and a draw).
• Not scored 2 goals at home.
• Not scored in both halves at home.

Palermo other stats

• Only 3 wins.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• All defeats at home v top 9.
• 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Roma 100% stats

• Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
• All clean sheets away v 14th and lower.

Roma other stats

• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• 11 wins in 15 matches.
• No draw in 16 matches.

Conclusions

• With only 3 wins, Palermo are highly unlikely to get the win so note that if they lead at any stage.
• We may see a Roma win to nil. How would I play this? Back correct score 2nd half of 0-0 at halftime. We only have to choose between scorelines to nil.
• We are likely not to see a trade here as Roma should score first and assert. But be ready...

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20:00 - Lorient v PSG - 1.36 PSG

• 5-0 the last time these 2 met, to PSG, in French Ligue 1.
• Let's gloss over that 6-1 loss to Barcelona. How much of an impact will that have on today's match?
• This is 20th v 2nd in French Ligue 1 and is a must win for PSG who trail Monaco. It is a must win for Lorient for completely different reasons of course.

Lorient 100% stats

• Lost all matches v top 3.
• Failed to score in 3 matches v top 2.
• No 0-0.

Lorient other stats

• 4 consecutive defeats.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
• 12 goals scored in the 2nd half at home out of 16.

PSG 100% stats

• No away draw.
• All wins home and away v 14th and lower.
• Not conceded 2 goals in a match v 14th and lower.

PSG other stats

• 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 matches.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• 2-3-3-5 goals scored in recent aways.
• 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• What impact with the Champions League calamity have on PSG today? They must win in order to keep tabs on French Ligue 1 title as the 2 Cote D'azur teams are bang in contention.
• On form, Lorient should have trouble even scoring and PSG have scored 11 goals in 3 aways so should simply outscore Lorient.
• If Lorient score first, lay them or even back PSG as PSG tend not to concede that 2nd goal.

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