DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, February 12, 2017

A much better Saturday, thanks to Schteve 'how you say' McClaren and his magic umbrella at Derby County, coming from 0-3 to draw 3-3. Do remember, when you see an odds on favourite 0-3 down at halftime, pay a visit to soccerstats.com and check the side leading. Are they vulnerable even 0-3 up? Another highlight? I went for 6-0 Monaco correct score in research - it ended 5-0! D'oh! Yesterday I was not tempted in by the lower leagues or the lower Scottish leagues who have, despite the stats. Been wholly disappointing. I will live chat at 13:30 at delayreacttrade.com.
11:30 - Crotone v Roma - 1.42 Roma
- 4-0 to Roma earlier in this Italian Seria A season.
- 2nd bottom plays 2nd top.
- Roma have a Europa League match on the 16th February.
Crotone 100% stats
- Lost all matches v the top 7.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No 0-0.
Crotone other stats
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 6 at home.
Roma 100% stats
- Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
Roma other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- No draw in 12 matches.
- All defeats came away and v top 10 sides.
Conclusions
- Roma should be winning, given Crotone tend to lose, conceding 2 goals at least v top teams.
- Roma have struggled to score v bottom 5 away so a slight niggle there.
- Lay any late draw as Roma have had no draw in 12 matches. I am not sure how much of an influence an upcoming Europa League match will have.
- If 0-0 late on, lay it. Crotone have only 1 clean sheet.
13:30 - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.56 Anderlecht
- This is rather surprisingly 2nd v 3rd in the Belgian Pro League.
Anderlecht 100% stats
- Not beaten the top 4 yet this season.
- Anderlecht meet Zenit in the Europa league on the 17th February.
- Not lost to nil this season.
Anderlecht other stats
- Last defeat was a 3-2 v Zulte.
- 2 consecutive 0-0s - considering they have failed to score only 4 times this sequence should end soon.
- Unbeaten in 10 matches.
- 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Zulte-Waregem 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Not played the top 2 away.
- Not beaten a top 7 side away though.
Zulte other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
Conclusions
- Anderlecht are vulnerable to top 4 teams and have already lost to Zulte this season.
- My key angle is to oppose a 3rd consecutive 0-0 for Anderlecht.
- I can argue to oppose both sides but acknowledge that Anderlecht are unbeaten in 10 matches and Zulte are yet to meet a top 7 team and beat them.
- Both teams could score today and I would lay Zulte if Zulte scored first despite the 2 consecutive blanks for Anderlecht.
13:30 - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.44 Chelsea
- 3-0 to Chelsea earlier in the season.
Burnley 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- Lost all matches v top 4 teams.
- All defeats at home by a single goal.
- No opponent has led at halftime at home.
Burnley other stats
- Only 2 draws.
- 3 1-0 wins in their last 4 home matches.
- 5 consecutive home wins.
- Failed to score only once at home.
- 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Scored first in 11/13 at home.
Chelsea 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All defeats v top 5 teams only.
- No over 4.5 goals matches away.
Chelsea other stats
- Failed to score only twice.
- The last 9 halftime scores have been 1-0/0-1.
- 7 0-1 wins at halftime away.
- Unbeaten outside the top 6.
Conclusions
- Burnley tend to score first at home so note that. They do though also tend to lose to top 4 teams so there's a ready angle there.
- Chelsea are unbeaten home and away outside of the top 6 and are expected to do so today.
- Lay any late 0-0. Chelsea so far don't do 0-0's.
13:30 - Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.19 Ajax
- Ajax have a Europa League fixture on the 16th February.
Ajax 100% stats
- 5 points shy of top spot.
- No 0-0.
- Scored in every home match.
- Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
Ajax other stats
- Failed to score only once.
- No defeat in 8 at home.
- Scored in their last 10 at home.
Sparta 100% stats
- No win in 10 away matches.
- No 0-0.
Sparta other stats
- 7 defeats and 2 draws last 9 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- No win in 10 away.
- Conceded last 15 matches.
- All defeats v top 4.
Conclusions
- As long as Ajax are not distracted by their Europa League match, they should be winning this match. They have scored in every home match so expect that to continue today.
- Sparta keep losing to top 4 teams so if they score first, back Ajax.
14:00 - Palermo v Atalanta - 1.81 Atalanta
- Palermo went unbeaten in the last 2 head to heads in Italian Seria A in 2016.
Palermo 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- All defeats at home v top 13 teams.
- Not scored more than 1 goal in those matches.
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Palermo other stats
- Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0 and one came last home match.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Only 1 1-0 win at home.
- 3 of 4 defeats at home v top 5 were 0-1.
- 4 of 5 goals scored at home came first half.
Atalanta 100% stats
- No draw home or away v teams 10th and lower.
Atalanta other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
- 9 wins and 4 losses v teams 10th and lower.
- 12 of 17 goals scored away came 1st half.
Conclusions
- Palermo did win their last home match but that is not the norm. All defeats v top 13. Palermo though might keep it tight. They have had a few 0-1 defeats v top sides.
- Atalanta are going through a poor run away. They should avoid the draw and have a high probability chance of winning today. The market is a little tentative because of the poor recent form.
- A watching brief as it may be 0-0 for a while and if so I would keep the faith and back Atalanta or 0-1 late on.
14:00 - Torino v Pescara - 1.41 Torino
- I do like following strugglers like Pescara as we can get some good angles in if they are determined to go down with a fight in Italian Seria A.
Torino 100% stats
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- Not lost to nil at home.
- No opponent has scored first at home.
Torino other stats
- 4 draws in their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- Scored in their last 9 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Scored and conceded v all top 15 sides at home but v 16th and 17th we see a 1-0 and a 0-0. Pescara are 20th.
- It was 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
- Scored first in 10/11 at home.
- Led at halftime in 8/11 home matches.
Pescara 100% stats
- Provided us with 2 good trading angles in their last 2 matches.
- No 0-0 away.
- All defeats away v top 11 sides.
- Not scored in both halves.
- Not scored a first half goal away.
- Not scored first away.
Pescara other stats
- 13 defeats and 2 1-1 draws in their last 15 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away.
Conclusions
- Pescara, if they score, are highly likely to score 2nd half.
- I expect Torino to score first and negate any trading angles.
- Torino have a high % chance of leading at halftime.
- If Pescara equaliser score first, they are vulnerable as seen in their last 2 matches.
14:00 - Inter v Empoli - 1.37 Inter
- Inter tend to win Italian Seria A head to heads.
Inter Milan 100% stats
- No European distractions.
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten v 16th and lower and play 17th today.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
Inter Milan other stats
- 7 wins in a row ended with a tight loss v Juventus. Solid stuff.
- Failed to score only 4 times.
- 3-4-2-3-3-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
- 7 consecutive home wins.
- 17 of 25 home goals scored 2nd half.
Empoli 100% stats
- Not beaten any top 10 team.
- Failed to score in any match v the top 5.
- Failed to score more than 1 goal in a match v top 14 teams.
- 10 goals conceded last 15 minutes of away matches.
Empoli other stats
- No win in 5 away matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- Defeats away v top 6 teams were 2-0 or 2-1.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Expect 2 goals at least today and Inter are likely to score those.
- Empoli may not be able to score today so a correct score win to nil for Inter is open for speculators particularly with a 0-0 at halftime (and note Empoli have had 6 0-0's at halftime away).
- Inter are in superb scoring form at home so 2/3 expected of them with no European distractions.
14:30 - Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.6 Wolfs
Wolfsburg 100% stats
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Wolfsburg other stats
- Scored in their last 4 home matches.
- Scored 2 goals only once at home.
- 50% 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Hoffenheim 100% stats
- Unbeaten v 3rd and lower home and away.
- Not lost to nil.
Hoffenheim other stats
- Only 1 defeat when down to 10 men.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Scored in all away matches v 9th and lower (Wolfsburg are 14th).
Conclusions
- If Wolfsburg score first, lay them. They cannot find that 2nd goal at the moment at home.
- Hoff should score at some point too.
- We tend to lay 0-0 in the halftime score market with Hoff, but not as confidently, say, as Werder Bremen.
15:45 - PSV v Utrecht - 1.33 PSV
- PSV tend to win head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie.
PSV 100% stats
- Unbeaten outside of 1st in the league.
- No home match with 3goals exactly.
- No opponent has led at halftime at home.
PSV other stats
- Lost only 1 match.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 2-4-2-4 goals scored in their last 4 matches.
- No defeat in 15 matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
Utrecht 100% stats
Utrecht other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 15 matches both came v Ajax.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 8 of 11 matches home and away v top 10 teams.
- Lost only 1 away match.
- When they have scored 2 goals away, they have not won.
Conclusions
- Utrecht are in really good form and only Ajax have been able to beat them. They have scored 2 goals against top 5 sides away from home without winning so note that if they score 2 again today.
- PSV have been in good scoring very recently and 2-2 does appeal to me as a correct score trading angle.
- There are no European distractions for PSV but there is a niggling feeling that they will be made to work for any win today. I feel their odds are a little short given Utrecht's decent enough recent form.
- If PSV lead 2-0 I would lay them.
16:00 - St Etienne v Lorient - 1.93 St Etienne
- St Etienne have tended to win head to heads but Lorient won 2-0 last head to head in French Ligue 1.
St Etienne 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4 teams.
- Not conceded 2 goals in a single match at home.
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
- Not scored in both halves at home.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
St Etienne other stats
- Only 6 defeats.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Lorient 100% stats
- We know from midweek research that they have home goals in them, but away?
- No 0-0.
- Not led at halftime away.
- All defeats away v the top 10.
Lorient other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 1 away win.
- Only 1 clean sheet away.
Conclusions
- Remember St Etienne tend to score 2nd half goals. That's a main angle for me in this match. Lorient are unlikely to lead at halftime but a 0-0 is not out of the question.
- If Lorient happen to score first, St Etienne do not concede 2 goals in home matches so lay Lorient where mid week we had them on our side!
- Do note St Etienne have a Europa League match against Man Utd on the 16th February.
16:00 - Swansea v Leicester - 2.52 Swansea
- 4 consecutive Leicester wins in head to heads, but this is not THE Leicester of last year.
Swansea 100% stats
Swansea other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- No draw in 12 matches and in 7 at home.
- 25% 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Only 3 wins at home v 13th, 19th and 20th. Play 16th today.
- 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
- Conceded 10 goals last 15 mins of home matches.
Leicester 100% stats
- No away win.
- 2-1 losses away v teams below them (Swans are).
- All away defeats were by 1 or 3 goals.
- Not scored first away or led at halftime away.
Leicester other stats
- Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
- 3 of last 4 defeats saw them conceding 3 goals.
- 11 goals conceded away directly before halftime.
- 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Expect at least 2 goals today. I would expect both teams to score.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Target 30 mins if we can get there with a 0-0 still.
- Lay any late draw. It did not work Leicester v Derby in the cup but might here given the Swans avoid draws.
16:30 - Freiburg v FC Koln - 2.8 both sides
- The odds for this German Bundesliga match tells us to look elsewhere. The market cannot decide, can the stats?
Freiburg 100% stats
Freiburg other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.
- Only home losses v 1st, 2nd and 14th.
FC Koln 100% stats
- All defeats have come away v teams above them in the league (Koln 7th and Freiburg 8th).
FC Koln other stats
- Only 3 defeats all season.
- Unbeaten in 6 albeit 4 were draws.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Beat Freiburg 3-0 earlier this season.
Conclusions
- Freiburg have failed to score in only 3 matches and had only 3 clean sheets. Does this lend itself to both teams scoring?
Dare we avoid the draw while Freiburg keep avoiding draws at home?
- What of Koln being unbeaten outside of the top 6? Does that lend itself to Koln not losing?
- No wonder the market has given up on choosing a favourite!!
17:00 - Sampdoria v Bologna - 1.92 Sampdoria
Sampdoria 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
- No match with exactly 4 goals.
Sampdoria other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 2 0-0s in the last 3 home matches.
- 6 0-0s at halftime at home.
Bologna 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Not beaten a top 15 side away.
Bologna other stats
- No win in 3.
- 10 goals conceded away in the last 1/2 hour of matches.
Conclusions
- Beware. We might see an over reaction defensively from Bologna to conceding 7 goals recently against Napoli. That may skew the form.
- On form, prepare for late action. Bologna concede heavily after the 60th minute so if leading or if there is a draw, speculators might like to oppose Bologna.
- Sampdoria will be buzzing after beating Roma 3-2 and look to have a degreee of momentum so I would be laying Bologna should they lead, and as I say above, particularly after the 60th minute.
19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.41 Atl
- 2 consecutive wins to nil for Atl Madrid recently in head to heads in the Spanish Primera Liga.
Atl Madrid 100% stats
- Undefeated v teams 7th and lower (Celta are 10th).
- No home match with exactly 4 goals.
Atl Madrid other stats
- 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.
- 3 consecutive home wins to nil.
- Scored 0-1-1-1 at home v 8th-13th at home.
- Scored first in 7/10 at home.
Celta Vigo 100% stats
- Lost all away v top 7 (Atl Madrid are 4th).
Celta Vigo other stats
- 3 wins in 4 matches.
- Only 3 draws, 2 were 3-3.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
Conclusions
- I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but I would expect a second half goal at least from Atl Madrid.
- I would lay any late draw. 2 3-3 draws draw Celta suggests we might see the draw odds rise after laying.
- With 7 clean sheets in 9 matches, Atl Madrid should score first. If 0-0 at halftime I would look at a correct score punt, 1-0 or 2-0.
19:45 - Cagliari v Juventus - 1.37 Juventus
- 4-0 Juventus in the last head to head in Italian Seria A.
Cagliari 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- No win yet v top 4.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
Cagliari other stats
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Conceded in their last 19 matches.
- Solid scorers at home.In 9 of 11 matches, they scored 2+ goals including a 2-2 at home v Roma. Napoli kept them to nil though and Juventus make up the top 3 there.
Juventus 100% stats
- Champions league on 22nd February should not affect this match.
- No draw.
- No over 4.5 goals away.
Juventus other stats
- 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored last 14 matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away.
- All defeats have come away v 5th, 7th, 8th, 16th and play 15th today.
- 14 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- As with Juventus's last match, if 0-0 fear not. They have a superb scoring record 2nd half.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Cagliari have a superb scoring rate at home. Will a Juve with 6 clean sheets in 7 give them a look in? Napoli did keep Cagliari from scoring.
- I would not be surprised with a Cagliari goal or 2 today and would love them to score first for a good trading angle. Consider backing Juve if Cagliari score first.