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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 12, 2017

A much better Saturday, thanks to Schteve 'how you say' McClaren and his magic umbrella at Derby County, coming from 0-3 to draw 3-3. Do remember, when you see an odds on favourite 0-3 down at halftime, pay a visit to soccerstats.com and check the side leading. Are they vulnerable even 0-3 up? Another highlight? I went for 6-0 Monaco correct score in research - it ended 5-0! D'oh! Yesterday I was not tempted in by the lower leagues or the lower Scottish leagues who have, despite the stats. Been wholly disappointing. I will live chat at 13:30 at delayreacttrade.com.

11:30 - Crotone v Roma - 1.42 Roma

  • 4-0 to Roma earlier in this Italian Seria A season.
  • 2nd bottom plays 2nd top.
  • Roma have a Europa League match on the 16th February.

Crotone 100% stats

  • Lost all matches v the top 7.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 6 at home.

Roma 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.

Roma other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • All defeats came away and v top 10 sides.

Conclusions

  • Roma should be winning, given Crotone tend to lose, conceding 2 goals at least v top teams.
  • Roma have struggled to score v bottom 5 away so a slight niggle there.
  • Lay any late draw as Roma have had no draw in 12 matches. I am not sure how much of an influence an upcoming Europa League match will have.
  • If 0-0 late on, lay it. Crotone have only 1 clean sheet.

13:30 - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.56 Anderlecht

  • This is rather surprisingly 2nd v 3rd in the Belgian Pro League.

Anderlecht 100% stats

  • Not beaten the top 4 yet this season.
  • Anderlecht meet Zenit in the Europa league on the 17th February.
  • Not lost to nil this season.

Anderlecht other stats

  • Last defeat was a 3-2 v Zulte.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0s - considering they have failed to score only 4 times this sequence should end soon.
  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Zulte-Waregem 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not played the top 2 away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side away though.

Zulte other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Anderlecht are vulnerable to top 4 teams and have already lost to Zulte this season.
  • My key angle is to oppose a 3rd consecutive 0-0 for Anderlecht.
  • I can argue to oppose both sides but acknowledge that Anderlecht are unbeaten in 10 matches and Zulte are yet to meet a top 7 team and beat them.
  • Both teams could score today and I would lay Zulte if Zulte scored first despite the 2 consecutive blanks for Anderlecht.

13:30 - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.44 Chelsea

  • 3-0 to Chelsea earlier in the season.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Lost all matches v top 4 teams.
  • All defeats at home by a single goal.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Burnley other stats

  • Only 2 draws.
  • 3 1-0 wins in their last 4 home matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only once at home.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 11/13 at home.

Chelsea 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 5 teams only.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Chelsea other stats

  • Failed to score only twice.
  • The last 9 halftime scores have been 1-0/0-1.
  • 7 0-1 wins at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten outside the top 6.

Conclusions

  • Burnley tend to score first at home so note that. They do though also tend to lose to top 4 teams so there's a ready angle there.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten home and away outside of the top 6 and are expected to do so today.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Chelsea so far don't do 0-0's.

13:30 - Ajax v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.19 Ajax

  • Ajax have a Europa League fixture on the 16th February.

Ajax 100% stats

  • 5 points shy of top spot.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Ajax other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • No 0-0.

Sparta other stats

  • 7 defeats and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 15 matches.
  • All defeats v top 4.

Conclusions

  • As long as Ajax are not distracted by their Europa League match, they should be winning this match. They have scored in every home match so expect that to continue today.
  • Sparta keep losing to top 4 teams so if they score first, back Ajax.

14:00 - Palermo v Atalanta - 1.81 Atalanta

  • Palermo went unbeaten in the last 2 head to heads in Italian Seria A in 2016.

Palermo 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats at home v top 13 teams.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal in those matches.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Palermo other stats

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0 and one came last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 1-0 win at home.
  • 3 of 4 defeats at home v top 5 were 0-1.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored at home came first half.

Atalanta 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v teams 10th and lower.

Atalanta other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
  • 9 wins and 4 losses v teams 10th and lower.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Palermo did win their last home match but that is not the norm. All defeats v top 13. Palermo though might keep it tight. They have had a few 0-1 defeats v top sides.
  • Atalanta are going through a poor run away. They should avoid the draw and have a high probability chance of winning today. The market is a little tentative because of the poor recent form.
  • A watching brief as it may be 0-0 for a while and if so I would keep the faith and back Atalanta or 0-1 late on.

14:00 - Torino v Pescara - 1.41 Torino

  • I do like following strugglers like Pescara as we can get some good angles in if they are determined to go down with a fight in Italian Seria A.

Torino 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No opponent has scored first at home.

Torino other stats

  • 4 draws in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Scored and conceded v all top 15 sides at home but v 16th and 17th we see a 1-0 and a 0-0. Pescara are 20th.
  • It was 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • Scored first in 10/11 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 8/11 home matches.

Pescara 100% stats

  • Provided us with 2 good trading angles in their last 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • All defeats away v top 11 sides.
  • Not scored in both halves.
  • Not scored a first half goal away.
  • Not scored first away.

Pescara other stats

  • 13 defeats and 2 1-1 draws in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Pescara, if they score, are highly likely to score 2nd half.
  • I expect Torino to score first and negate any trading angles.
  • Torino have a high % chance of leading at halftime.
  • If Pescara equaliser score first, they are vulnerable as seen in their last 2 matches.

14:00 - Inter v Empoli - 1.37 Inter

  • Inter tend to win Italian Seria A head to heads.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • No European distractions.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower and play 17th today.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Inter Milan other stats

  • 7 wins in a row ended with a tight loss v Juventus. Solid stuff.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • 3-4-2-3-3-3 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • 17 of 25 home goals scored 2nd half.

Empoli 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 10 team.
  • Failed to score in any match v the top 5.
  • Failed to score more than 1 goal in a match v top 14 teams.
  • 10 goals conceded last 15 minutes of away matches.

Empoli other stats

  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Defeats away v top 6 teams were 2-0 or 2-1.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Expect 2 goals at least today and Inter are likely to score those.
  • Empoli may not be able to score today so a correct score win to nil for Inter is open for speculators particularly with a 0-0 at halftime (and note Empoli have had 6 0-0's at halftime away).
  • Inter are in superb scoring form at home so 2/3 expected of them with no European distractions.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.6 Wolfs

Wolfsburg 100% stats

  • Not scored in both halves at home.

Wolfsburg other stats

  • Scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home.
  • 50% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 3rd and lower home and away.
  • Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

  • Only 1 defeat when down to 10 men.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in all away matches v 9th and lower (Wolfsburg are 14th).

Conclusions

  • If Wolfsburg score first, lay them. They cannot find that 2nd goal at the moment at home.
  • Hoff should score at some point too.
  • We tend to lay 0-0 in the halftime score market with Hoff, but not as confidently, say, as Werder Bremen.

15:45 - PSV v Utrecht - 1.33 PSV

  • PSV tend to win head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie.

PSV 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside of 1st in the league.
  • No home match with 3goals exactly.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

PSV other stats

  • Lost only 1 match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 2-4-2-4 goals scored in their last 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 15 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.

Utrecht 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil away.

Utrecht other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 15 matches both came v Ajax.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 11 matches home and away v top 10 teams.
  • Lost only 1 away match.
  • When they have scored 2 goals away, they have not won.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht are in really good form and only Ajax have been able to beat them. They have scored 2 goals against top 5 sides away from home without winning so note that if they score 2 again today.
  • PSV have been in good scoring very recently and 2-2 does appeal to me as a correct score trading angle.
  • There are no European distractions for PSV but there is a niggling feeling that they will be made to work for any win today. I feel their odds are a little short given Utrecht's decent enough recent form.
  • If PSV lead 2-0 I would lay them.

16:00 - St Etienne v Lorient - 1.93 St Etienne

  • St Etienne have tended to win head to heads but Lorient won 2-0 last head to head in French Ligue 1.

St Etienne 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4 teams.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a single match at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

St Etienne other stats

  • Only 6 defeats.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lorient 100% stats

  • We know from midweek research that they have home goals in them, but away?
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 10.

Lorient other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet away.

Conclusions

  • Remember St Etienne tend to score 2nd half goals. That's a main angle for me in this match. Lorient are unlikely to lead at halftime but a 0-0 is not out of the question.
  • If Lorient happen to score first, St Etienne do not concede 2 goals in home matches so lay Lorient where mid week we had them on our side!
  • Do note St Etienne have a Europa League match against Man Utd on the 16th February.

16:00 - Swansea v Leicester - 2.52 Swansea

  • 4 consecutive Leicester wins in head to heads, but this is not THE Leicester of last year.

Swansea 100% stats

  • No 1-0/0-1 at home.

Swansea other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 12 matches and in 7 at home.
  • 25% 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 3 wins at home v 13th, 19th and 20th. Play 16th today.
  • 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Conceded 10 goals last 15 mins of home matches.

Leicester 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • 2-1 losses away v teams below them (Swans are).
  • All away defeats were by 1 or 3 goals.
  • Not scored first away or led at halftime away.

Leicester other stats

  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
  • 3 of last 4 defeats saw them conceding 3 goals.
  • 11 goals conceded away directly before halftime.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Expect at least 2 goals today. I would expect both teams to score.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Target 30 mins if we can get there with a 0-0 still.
  • Lay any late draw. It did not work Leicester v Derby in the cup but might here given the Swans avoid draws.

16:30 - Freiburg v FC Koln - 2.8 both sides

  • The odds for this German Bundesliga match tells us to look elsewhere. The market cannot decide, can the stats?

Freiburg 100% stats

  • No home draws.
  • No 0-0.

Freiburg other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.
  • Only home losses v 1st, 2nd and 14th.

FC Koln 100% stats

  • All defeats have come away v teams above them in the league (Koln 7th and Freiburg 8th).

FC Koln other stats

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • Unbeaten in 6 albeit 4 were draws.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Beat Freiburg 3-0 earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg have failed to score in only 3 matches and had only 3 clean sheets. Does this lend itself to both teams scoring? Dare we avoid the draw while Freiburg keep avoiding draws at home?
  • What of Koln being unbeaten outside of the top 6? Does that lend itself to Koln not losing?
  • No wonder the market has given up on choosing a favourite!!

17:00 - Sampdoria v Bologna - 1.92 Sampdoria

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • No match with exactly 4 goals.

Sampdoria other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 2 0-0s in the last 3 home matches.
  • 6 0-0s at halftime at home.

Bologna 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away.

Bologna other stats

  • No win in 3.
  • 10 goals conceded away in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Beware. We might see an over reaction defensively from Bologna to conceding 7 goals recently against Napoli. That may skew the form.
  • On form, prepare for late action. Bologna concede heavily after the 60th minute so if leading or if there is a draw, speculators might like to oppose Bologna.
  • Sampdoria will be buzzing after beating Roma 3-2 and look to have a degreee of momentum so I would be laying Bologna should they lead, and as I say above, particularly after the 60th minute.

19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.41 Atl

  • 2 consecutive wins to nil for Atl Madrid recently in head to heads in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

  • Undefeated v teams 7th and lower (Celta are 10th).
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Atl Madrid other stats

  • 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • Scored 0-1-1-1 at home v 8th-13th at home.
  • Scored first in 7/10 at home.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • Lost all away v top 7 (Atl Madrid are 4th).

Celta Vigo other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 draws, 2 were 3-3.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • I would not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but I would expect a second half goal at least from Atl Madrid.
  • I would lay any late draw. 2 3-3 draws draw Celta suggests we might see the draw odds rise after laying.
  • With 7 clean sheets in 9 matches, Atl Madrid should score first. If 0-0 at halftime I would look at a correct score punt, 1-0 or 2-0.

19:45 - Cagliari v Juventus - 1.37 Juventus

  • 4-0 Juventus in the last head to head in Italian Seria A.

Cagliari 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No win yet v top 4.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Cagliari other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 19 matches.
  • Solid scorers at home.In 9 of 11 matches, they scored 2+ goals including a 2-2 at home v Roma. Napoli kept them to nil though and Juventus make up the top 3 there.

Juventus 100% stats

  • Champions league on 22nd February should not affect this match.
  • No draw.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Juventus other stats

  • 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored last 14 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats have come away v 5th, 7th, 8th, 16th and play 15th today.
  • 14 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • As with Juventus's last match, if 0-0 fear not. They have a superb scoring record 2nd half.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Cagliari have a superb scoring rate at home. Will a Juve with 6 clean sheets in 7 give them a look in? Napoli did keep Cagliari from scoring.
  • I would not be surprised with a Cagliari goal or 2 today and would love them to score first for a good trading angle. Consider backing Juve if Cagliari score first.