I am not sure what help the research will be. In-play stats dominate for me. No live chat webinar today. I will Telegram any possible angles. I spoke a lot about insurance yesterday and that saved a number of calls from being loss producing...to break even. If you are unfamiliar with insurance, let me know.
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
14:00 - Kazakhstan v Albania - 2.37 Albania
- 116th v 62nd.
- Last met 2005.
- Only wins recently for Borat's Boys was v Andorra and Lithuania.
- They did score in defeat to Georgia and Belarus.
- 4 losses without scoring for Albania in 5 matches. Win away v Belarus.
- The market cannot split these 2.
14:00 - Ireland v Wales - 2.70 Ireland
- 29th v 19th.
- Local derby.
- Wales won both recent head to heads in this competition in 2018.
- Ireland for me are lightweight and may not have a 2nd goal in them if scoring.
17:00 - Armenia v Georgia - 2.62 Georgia
- 106th v 94th.
- I will leave 2.62 the favourite alone.
17:00 - Bosnia v Netherlands - 1.57 Netherlands
- 35th v 16th.
- Bosnia scored 2 goals v Northern Ireland but not many other teams.
- Draw v Italy and loss v Poland last 2 matches.
- Netherlands beat Poland 1-0 and lost 0-1 v Italy so that collateral form offers us little.
- 1-0 loss, 1-0 win, 0-1 loss Netherlands recently.
- Netherlands rested a few players in the loss v Mexico mid week in a friendly.
- Netherlands need to return to the 2+ goals v France and Germany from 2018.
- Bosnia might be layable if leading. Where is that consistent 2nd goal?
17:00 - Croatia v Sweden - 1.91 Croatia
- 5th v 14th.
- Last head to head 2012.
- Both teams have scored last 4 for Croatia in this competition with just one win, 3-2 v Spain. Losses v Portugal, England and France sees almost exclusively top 10 opposition.
- Sweden failed to score in defeats v France and Portugal so both teams losing against the same opposition.
- The market thinks that an excursion outside of the top 10 for Croatia might see them right. Do remember they tend to score (if the Swedes score first).
17:00 - Estonia v North Macedonia - 1.78 North Macedonia
- 96th v 68th.
- These 2 last met in 2007.
- 0-1-0-0 goals scored by Estonia recently They won 1-0 v Greece. Again, another side who don't see that 2nd goal in recent matches in this competition.
- North Macedonia in comparison look far better. 3 wins and a 1-1 recently in this competition. Do note that some of their opponents were 100+ ranked so that takes a slight gloss of the recent run.
17:00 - Finland v Bulgaria - 1.78 Finland
- 60th v 51st.
- Last head to head 2008.
- 3 consecutive losses in this competition ended with a 0-1 win v Ireland. If they can remain that defensively stout, Finland could get something here.
- Bulgaria, in this competition, are on a run of 1-0 loss, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 loss with betrays their Achilles Heel. No 2nd goal means 0-1 win is their best case scenario....if the pattern continues.
17:00 - England v Belgium - 2.45 England
- 4th v 1st.
- Belgium won the 2 head to heads in 2018 0-1 and 2-0.
- England don't tend to lose Nations League matches. 3 consecutive clean sheets now but of course they aren't playing the World's Number 1 ranked team in those matches.
- 2020 so far, 0-2 win v Denmark (0-0 Danes v England) and 5-1 win v Iceland.
- I can't split these 2.
17:00 - Lithuania v Belarus - 2.25 Belarus
- 132nd v 81st.
- Last head to head 2012.
- Lithuania's run of 5 consecutive losses in this competition ended with a 0-1 win v Albania.
- 3 wins in 4 for Belarus, beating the likes of Luxembourg, San Marino, and Kazakhstan. They lost to Albania....the side Lithuania beat!
17:00 - Norway v Romania - 1.95 Norway
- 50th v 25th.
- 2019 head to heads saw 2 score draws. In both matches there was a 90th minute goal and all goals came 2nd half.
- Only 1 recent loss for Norway in this competition came v Austria.
- Romania are unbeaten in recent Nations League matches. Romania beat Austria 2-3.
19:45 - Scotland v Slovakia - 1.95 Scotland
- 44th v 32nd.
- Last head to head 2017.
- 3 wins and a 1-1 v Israel for the Scots recently in the Nations League. Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- In contrast 4 losses and a draw in 6 Nations League matches for Slovakia. Of course, more indepth analysis would look at the rankings of their opponents as compared with Scotland's 44th ranking. Both teams scored in 4/5 matches.
- A strong both teams to score pattern for both teams with Scotland potentially not losing? That's the conclusion based on this handful of competition-only matches.
19:45 - Greece v Moldovia - 1.22 Greece
- 43rd v 171st.
- Last head to head 2009.
- The only time Greece scored 2 goals recently in this competition was v Kosovo, a similarly poorly ranked side (to Moldova).
- 2 1-1 draws and a 1-0 loss for Moldovia. They last scored 2 goals v San Marino. Greece are a little more robust. Greece should get 2 goals again here. Worst case 0-0 or 1-0 win I'd think.
19:45 - Northern Ireland v Austria - 2.00 Austria
- 33rd v 34th.
- 2 2018 head to heads were won by Austria. The rankings are very tight.
- No win in this competition for Northern Ireland, scoring and conceding without winning their last 3 matches.
- Both teams scored in Austria's last 3 Nations League matches. 2 1-2 away wins included a win v Northern Ireland.
- Nations League form favours Austria.
19:45 - Iceland v Denmark - 1.91 Denmark
- 40th v 10th.
- Last head to head 2016.
- Iceland tend to lose in the Nations League.
- The Danes are running through a sticky spot - 0-0 v Ireland and England and 0-2 v Belgium.
- Denmark really should not lose this one. The 0-0's suggest that they are defensively stout against better sides.
19:45 - Israel v Czech Republic - 2.25 Czech
- 93rd v 48th.
- Last head to head 2012.
- In this competition, the Czechs have only scored 2 goals v Slovakia.
- That side is the only side to supply their 3 wins.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in this competition for Israel.
19:45 - Kosovo v Slovenia - 2.35 Slovenia
- 127th v 63rd.
- No head to heads. So difficulty to get a fix on this one. With Kosovo 127th in the rankings, Slovenia should look to a positive result here.
19:45 - Poland v Italy - 1.95 Italy
- 20th v 17th.
- Tight 2018 head to heads. 1-1 and 0-1 Italy.
- Expect similar today?
- Italy's defence are going to have to work today as they have not scored that 2nd goal in the Nations league in their last 6 matches.
- Poland have a similar problem in the Nations League but did score 2 v Portugal in 2018 and Bosnia in 2020.
19:45 - Russia v Turkey - 2.10 Russia
- 46th v 39th.
- Turkey have failed to score in their last 3 Nations League matches. Russia beat them 2-0 in 2018 in this competition and scored 3 goals in their last 2 matches. I fear for the Turks.
19:45 - Serbia v Hungary - 1.78 Serbia
- 29th v 51st.
- No head to heads.
- No strong patterns here.