DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 11, 2017
The World Cup qualifiers continue today. Some good calls as far as research was concerned, pointing towards likely winners and first goal scorers (Czechs 1st half for instance). I will try and be around at 17:00 to do some tweeting. These qualifiers do tend to get some good trading angles as seen yesterday.
17:00 - Moldova v Georgia - 2.5 Georgia
- 1-1 in the last head to head.
- This is the bottom 2 in Group D. No wonder the market has the favourite at odds of 2.5.
- 0-0-1-1-0 goals scored by Moldova in their qualifiers.
- 1-0-1-1-1 scored by Georgia in their qualifiers and they too have not won.
- Quite obviously these 2 will find each other a lot easier. 1-1 looks a natural starting point. I would be keen to lay Moldova if Moldova scored first.
17:00 - Rep of Ireland v Austria - 2.36 Ireland
- 2nd and 4th in Group D and although there is a 4 point gap between the top 2 and the rest, it is too tight for the Irish to be complacent.
- Ireland are unbeaten 2-1-1-0-0 conceded so getting better from an attacking perspective.
- 2-1-3-1-0 scored... 48th minute winner the last time these 2 met for the Irish.
- 1-0 and 0-0 at home for the Irish.
- 2-2-2-0-2 scored by Austria and the only time they failed to score was v the Irish.
- 1-2 and 3-2 scorelines away for Austria.
- The form suggests an Austrian threat. The tactics for Ireland suggest a period of 0-0 and try to nick a winner (so back 0-0 pre match and trade out as near to halftime as you can - a tactic which worked yesterday in a couple of matches.)
- I think it is significant that the only team the Austrians could not score against was the Irish and on that basis I will be with the home side. I would lay Austria if Austria scored first as I do not think they can get a 2nd v this side.
17:00 - Finland v Ukraine - 1.89 Ukraine
- Group I sees Finland as the minnows and Ukraine in with a great chance of qualifying.
- A draw and 4 defeats for the Fins. They lost -0 only to Croatia and Ukraine so will be tough to beat and park the bus.
- Ukraine have only dropped points to the big 3 teams. Draw and loss for Ukraine away.
- The odds are strange here. Reflective of a recent friendly loss to Malta? I must be with Ukraine today as I expected far shorter odds. This is another match with a 0-0 for a while profile if you want to back 0-0 pre match and hope the defensive Finns turn up.
19:45 - Israel v Albania - 2.22 Israel
- Group G sees 3rd and 4th. Spain and Italy dominate so 3rd place is the best these 2 can hope for.
- No draws for either side so immediately an angle? Lay the late draw.
- Albania have lost to the top 3. 0-3 win for Israel.
- I must side with Israel today. The odds are a bit high probably because Israel are not the most trustworthy of sides. I must lay Albania if Albania score first.
19:45 - Iceland v Croatia - 2.06 Croatia
- Top 2 in Group I.
- Iceland have only lost to Croatia. Is that significant enough to side with the Croats today?
- 3-2 scored by the Icelanders at home v Finland and Turkey.
- A draw and 4 wins for Croatia saw 3 wins to nil.
- This could be a tight match as Croatia only beat Finland 0-1 away so watch out for an extended 0-0. I would still favour Croatia today and like England back 0-1 after halftime if 0-0 at halftime.
- Icelanders have goals in them at home but even if scoring I do not think they will keep the Croats out.
19:45 - FYR Macedonia v Spain - 1.16 Spain
- 5th v 1st in Group G.
- 2-2-3-4-0 conceded by FYR this campaign. Yes, only Liechtenstein failed to score v FYR.
- 3/4 goals conceded fits into the Spanish 1.16 odds today.
- 8-1-2-4-4 goals scored by Spain.
- Expect 3/4 goals minimum today from the Spanish in what should be a comfortable night.
19:45 - Serbia v Wales - 1.73 Serbia
- 1st and 3rd in Group D. The group is very tight so Wales really must be eyeing at least a point.
- Both sides are unbeaten. Wales have 4 consecutive draws and are dropping points. 3 of those draws were score draws which suggests to me a lay of Wales if Wales score first.
- 1-3-3-1-3 goals scored by the Serbs. They only scored 1 goal v Wales.
- 2-3 goals scored by Serbia in home matches included a 2-2 v Ireland and 3-2 v Austria.
- 2-2 and 0-0 away for Wales v the same teams that Serbia scored at home.
- I would have to say today that Serbia have the better form and the more consistent goal threat. Wales are Gareth Bale pretty much and if he does not perform or play, they are markedly affected.
- I must lay Wales if Wales score first.
19:45 - Kosovo v Turkey - 1.22 Turkey
- Kosovo are the new minnows and I would have thought Turkeys odds would be a lot shorter.
- Turkey are 4th in Group I and really must win the minnows as everyone else does.
- It is a tight group so this is a must win for the Turks.
- 6-3-2-2 goals conceded by Kosovo in their defeats 2-0 loss v Turkey.
- Kosovo scored in a 1-2 home defeat v Iceland .
- 1-0 scored away for Turkey. Turkey have 2 consecutive home 2-0 wins.
- Turkey should not lose today but the 1.22 odds does relate a certain lack of confidence in their goalscoring v minnows. In an ideal world we should see a 0-2.
19:45 - Italy v Liechtenstein - 1.03 Italy
- As with Germany, try for 3 correct scores today. 3-0, 5-0 and 7-0 for the Italians today. Again I would use a bookmaker with a cash out facility. As with the Germans yesterday I was close.