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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you on Telegram throughout the day. 13:30 start for the Zoom live chat webinar.

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 11th April 2021

Time: Apr 11, 2021 01:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89466735696?pwd=VkdVRXljaHhsUTdRcDVOQ2kxWUZ6QT09

Meeting ID: 894 6673 5696

Passcode: 475599


English Premier League

12:00 - Burnley v Newcastle - 2.30 Burnley

Burnley - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came away from home.
  • 5 consecutive home draws.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 v 16th and lower at home.

Newcastle - 17th

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • 3 losses and a 0-0 away recently.
  • Improved 2-2 v Tottenham latest.
  • 7 0-0;s at halftime away, 1 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win away v 9th and lower.
  • 9/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Surely the draw is too obvious to call? 2 sides in poor recent form tough to trust and read.
  • Newcastle score a high% away goals 2nd half.

14:05 - West Ham v Leicester - 2.40 Leicester

  • West Ham beat Wolves as they were supposed to if we follow the assumed pattern that they only lose really to the elite clubs. Leicester are arguably not in that Elite section, neither were Wolves.
  • The market cannot split these 2 and neither can I!

16:30 - Tottenham v Man Utd - 2.45 Man Utd

  • A high profile clash and for Man Utd, a match sandwiched between 2 Europa League fixtures. These clashes are best on the day and not worth form research!

19:00 - Sheffield Utd v Arsenal - 1.57 Arsenal

Sheffield United - 20th

  • 7 losses and a win last 8 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • No draw in 16 and in 12 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • All defeats bar 1 v the top 14.

Arsenal - 10th

  • Another sandwich match between 2 Europa League fixtures v Slavia Prague.
  • Lost last match v Liverpool which ended an unbeaten run of 4.
  • Win, Draw, Draw away recently, 2 score draws.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 6 away.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower home and away.
  • Clean sheets away v 16th and lower.
  • 15/17 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • How will the Europa League affect Arsenal? If none the worse, their record v 16th and lower is excellent, all wins.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Lay any late draw.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Villarreal v Osasuna - 1.65 Villareal

Villareal - 5th

  • 2 consecutive losses ended with 3 consecutive wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • 9 goals scored at home 61st-75th minute.

Osasuna - 14th

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 0-1, 0-1, 0-0 away recently. Good defensive displays.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches overall and away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, only 2 at fulltime.
  • 8 losses and a 0-0 home and away v the top 6.

Conclusions

  • Another sandwich match, this time for Villareal in the Europa League. They must be wary that Osasuna recently have been defensively solid BUT significantly have not beaten any top 8 side in 9 attempts. If not distracted by the Europa League, Villareal should not lose.

15:15 - Valencia v Real Sociedad - 2.10 Real Sociedad

Valencia - 12th

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • No defeat 6 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 8 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Sociedad - 5th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only loss v 12th and lower came v Valencia.

Conclusions

  • Valencia are good at home recently and scoring 2+ goals so cannot be dismissed. Other than that, no strong angles.

17:30 - Valladolid v Granada - 2.10 Valladolid

Valladolid

  • Only 2 wins in 16 matches.
  • 2 draws and a 1-0 loss v Barcelona latest.
  • Conceded last 14 matches at home.
  • Good form v 8th-14th home and away. Only 1 defeat.

Granada

  • 5 losses in 7 matches, 2 came at home.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • 2 away wins were 0-1 v 15th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • If Granada win away it tends to be 0-1 so lay them if they score first and cover that 0-1.
  • Valladolid have intriguingly good form v 8th-14th, where their opponents are positioned.

20:00 - Real Betis v Atletico Madrid - 2.37 Atletico Madrid

  • 1st goal: Real Betis have conceded first in 7/13 home matches while Atl. Madrid have won 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Atl. Madrid have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against top-half teams.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Schalke v Augsburg - 2.15 Augsburg

Schalke - 18th

  • Only 1 win.
  • Failed to score 3 of last 4.
  • No win in 12 and in 6 at home.
  • Failed to score last 5 at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Augsburg - 11th

  • 3 wins in 5.
  • 5 losses in 6 away.
  • 3 0-1 wins v bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg have a good 0-1 win pattern v the bottom 4 so watch out for that potential today. 2-2 last head to head was interesting and a draw looks best case for a hopeless Schalke.

17:00 - Koln v Mainz - 2.40 Mainz

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 FC Koln home matches against bottom-six teams and in 6/8 FSV Mainz 05 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 FC Koln home matches against bottom-six teams.

Italian Serie A

11:30 - Inter Milan v Cagliari - 1.25 Inter Milan

  • Only 2 wins since 21st November for Cagliari but 10 consecutive wins for Inter Milan.
  • 11 consecutive wins at home, scoring last 14.
  • Inter beat Cagliari 1-3 last head to head and do score and concede v 16th and lower (Cagliari are 18th).
  • Angles? Complacency Inter's only downfall as would be an unexpected push for 3 points by a relegation-threatened Cagliari but on seasonal form, Cagliari may score but in defeat. Inter will expect to score 2+ goals.

14:00 - Juventus v Genoa - 1.25 Juventus

Juventus - 3rd

  • Back to winning ways at home latest after a poor 0-1 loss to Benevento.
  • 2+ goals scored in 5/6 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.
  • 16 goals scored last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Genoa - 13th

  • Only 2 losses in 13 came away to Inter Milan and Roma.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 3 away.
  • Not beaten top 15 away.

Conclusions

  • It should be another 2 goals Juventus and another home win. Genoa are yet to beat the top 15 away.
  • Lay any late draw.

14:00 - Sampdoria v Napoli - 1.70 Napoli

Sampdoria - 10th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • 5 losses and 2 wins at home v the top 11.

Napoli - 5th

  • 4 consecutive wins ended v a Juventus seeking to end a 1 match losing run at home.
  • That ended impressive away wins v AC Milan and Roma latest.
  • Scored last 17 and last 9 away.
  • Only 2 wins away v the top 9.
  • 14 goals scored last 30 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have poor win records v the top 9 but for me that Mertens factor may swing things in Napoli's favour. Absent for a lot of matches, Mertens is back and Napoli are back, away, beating big named sides. I just feel they are capable of getting Samp here.

14:00 - Verona v Lazio - 2.05 Lazio

Verona - 8th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded last 11 at home.
  • Have beaten 5th and 7th at home, scoring 3 in each.

Lazio - 6th

  • Ended 3 consecutive away defeats with a win last away match.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Not played 5th-9th away but lost away to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • A gap in form puts the dampener on this. Lazio have lost 5 v the top 11 away but yet to play 5th-9th away. What do we infer from those defeats as against recent winning form (3 consecutive wins, and a win last away match)?
  • Verona do let sides score so remember that!. Intriguingly they scored 3 goals in wins v 5th and 7th at home and play 6th today. Anomalies or....

17:00 - Roma v Bologna - 1.65 Roma

Roma - 7th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches, conceding 2+ goals in each.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 1-5 win last head to head.
  • 100% home wins v 10th and lower.

Bologna - 11th

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, a loss recently.
  • All defeats away v the top 6.
  • 11/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Redemption match for Roma? Poor recent run but exemplary winning form at home v 9th and lower. Bologna tend to lose to the top 6, does that extend to 7th?

19:45 - Fiorentina v Atalanta - 1.65 Atalanta

Fiorentina - 14th

  • Scored and conceded last 5 with just one win.
  • No win 3 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 9 losses in 10 v the top 7.

Atalanta

  • 7 wins and a loss recently.
  • 4 wins and a loss away recently.
  • No draw in 8 and in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten v 6th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina tend to lose to the top 7. Period!
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Fior are scoring 2 goals latest at home but note no win in 3 at home.

French Ligue 1

12:00 - Rennes v Nantes - 1.80 Rennes

  • 1st goal: Rennes have scored first in 13/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Nantes have lost the first half in 8/10 away matches against top-half teams. Nantes have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against top-half teams.

14:00 - Brest v Nimes - 2.00 Brest

  • Match outcome: Stade Brestois have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Nimes have lost 12/20 away matches. Nimes have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Lens v Lorient - 1.91 Lens

  • 1st goal: RC Lens have scored first in 9/15 home matches while Lorient have lost the first half in 9/15 away matches. Lorient have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.

14:00 - Nice v Reims - 2.30 Nice

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 16/19 Nice home matches and in 9/14 Reims away matches. Reims have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

14:00 - St. Etienne v Bordeaux - 2.30 St Etienne

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Saint-Etienne home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/10 Bordeaux away matches against bottom-six teams. Bordeaux have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

16:05 - Monaco v Dijon - 1.22 Monaco

  • Match outcome: Monaco have won 8/12 home matches while Dijon have lost 8/8 away matches against top-six teams. Dijon have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Lyon v Angers - 1.36 Lyon

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Lyon home matches and in 13/15 Angers away matches against top-six teams. Angers have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Dutch Eredivisie

11:15 - Utrecht v Feyenoord - 2.30 Utrecht

  • Another high profile derby(ish) match best left to in-play stats rather than pre-match research.

13:30 - Groningen v Heerenveen - 2.30 Groningen


13:30 - Venlo v PSV Eindhoven - 1.25 PSV Eindhoven

  • 9 consecutive defeats for Venlo and 4 consecutive home defeats. They do not keep clean sheets, having conceded in their last 14 and last 10 at home.
  • 4-1 loss last time Venlo played PSV and it makes it 17 goals conceded at home v the top 3!
  • PSV have only 4 wins in 9 matches, form which will hand the title to Ajax. Loss, Draw, Win, Loss away as well recently.
  • V 11th and lower, and Venlo are 16th, PSV have won all bar 1 match home and away.
  • Angles? Like the Cagliari match earlier, Venlo are in desperate need for points but face a PSV needing points themselves. PSV have been stumbling of late but will gain consolation from Venlo's conceding in their last 14 matches.

15:45 - RKC Waalwijk v Ajax - 1.14 Ajax

  • Ajax are another 'sandwich' side with Europa league matches v Roma either side of this one. At similar short odds last week, they did concede first and equalise before halftime (keeping up our expectation for a goal before halftime which is the same case with 1.14 odds today).
  • Expectation with 1.14 odds is for a win to nil and a win to nil at halftime - that did not come last week. If 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 0-1, 0-2, any unquoted Ajax. Final score is expected to be 0-3, 1-3, or any other away score. It was only 1-2 last week in, as I said, a laboured performance.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

14:30 - Santa Clara v Nacional - 2.05 Santa Clara

  • 1st half outcome: Santa Clara have drawn the first half in 9/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Nacional (Por) away matches. Santa Clara have drawn 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Gil Vicente v Moreirense - 2.20 Gil Vicente

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Gil Vicente home matches and in 9/11 Moreirense away matches against top half non-Big Three teams. Moreirense have conceded first in 13/20 away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.

17:30 - Braga v Belenenses - 1.40 Braga

  • Match outcome: Sp. Braga have won 9/11 home matches while Belenenses have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 trips to top-six teams. Belenenses have lost 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.