Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I will be telegramming from the Roma v Inter Milan match at 11:30 onwards.

ENGLISH FA CUP

  • Just listing the FA Cup matches. Make note of the odds and the Premier League sides playing lower league sides. www.drtinplaystats.com will come into its own in these cup matches. We expect first teams for the Premier League sides as the Premier League takes time off.

13:30 - Barnsley v Tranmere - 1.53 Barnsley


13:30 - Chelsea v Morecambe - 1.07 Chelsea


13:30 - Cheltenham v Mansfield - 2.00 Cheltenham


13:30 - Crawley v Leeds - 1.33 Leeds


13:30 - Man City v Birmingham - 1.14 Man City


17:00 - Marine v Tottenham - 1.02 Tottenham


19:45 - Newport v Brighton - 1.44 Brighton


SPL

15:00 - Aberdeen v Rangers - 1.36 Rangers

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 of those defeats came v Rangers for Aberdeen.
  • No more indepth research given that Rangers have done the double already over Aberdeen. The in-play stats, I suppose, will uncover any potential shocks here.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Levante v Eibar - 2.37 Levante

Levante - 13th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • 3 draws and 3 wins at home last 6 matches.
  • 3-2-4 goals scored at home recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 2nd at home.
  • 11 goals scored at home within the first hour.

Eibar - 12th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 and last 8 away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 away.
  • Wins away came v 6th, 11th and 15th.

Conclusions

  • Favour Levante on their very recent home form with 2+ goals scored and unbeaten in 6 at home.

15:15 - Cadiz v Alaves - 2.75 Cadiz


17:30 - Elche v Getafe - 2.10 Getafe

Elche - 18th

  • 6 draws and 4 defeats last 10 matches.
  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Did beat 12th and 14th away - augur well today v 16th?

Getafe - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches came away v newly promoted Cadiz.
  • That was the only away win all season.
  • Only 2 matches played v teams below them in the league.
  • All 3 away goals 2nd half scored last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Getafe's away form is very poor. Why are they favourite? Elche love the old draw, don't they?
  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2 unreliable teams.

20:00 - Valladolid v Valencia - 2.45 Valladolid

  • 15th v 17th.
  • Valladolid have conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • I cannot read this one. Valencia have only 1 away win v 4th.
  • Valladolid have only 2 wins at home v 9th and 19th.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Stuttgart - 2.15 Stuttgart

Augsburg - 10th

  • 2 recent 0-1 wins came v newly promoted sides and away.
  • No win in 4 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 2 wins at home came v 4th and 17th but not recently at home.
  • 9/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Stuttgart - 11th

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • That away loss last match was the only loss away this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet though.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.

Conclusions

  • I think Stuttgart's recent 1-0 defeats have come against solid yardsticks in Wolfsburg (unbeaten until meeting Bayern) and Leipzig. So not necessary wobbles for them. I do think they have some goals in them to ensure they'll pressure any Augsburg 1-0 lead. I would lay Augsburg if they lead, and cover the 1-0 incase they pull off a 1-0 win.

17:00 - Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin - 2.00 Hertha Berlin

Arminia Bielefeld - 16th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 of them were 1-0.
  • 5 losses and a win last 6 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home and none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side.

Hertha Berlin - 12th

  • Only 4 wins, did win their last home match.
  • No win in 3 away.
  • Unbeaten in 3 matches v teams below them in the league.
  • 69% of goals scored and 75% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Arminia are newly promoted so tough to call. I would slightly favour Hertha Berlin here.
  • Hertha goals tend to come 2nd half away so lay any 2nd half 0-0.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Roma v Inter Milan - 2.40 Inter Milan

  • Like the AC Milan v Juventus match the other night, this match today is best left to the in-play stats.
  • Top 3 sides are top 3 for a reason! This is tough to read. Inter's loss to Sampdoria was, I feel, down to careless managerial decisions. Fancy resting the big guns for the majority of the match, only to bring them on when 2-0 down to try and salvage something. Maybe Inter's manager had this match in mind? I wouldn't panic too much about the  Sampdoria 2-1 defeat, one of their goals was a penalty.
  • Roma have really impressed, but markedly have not beaten a top 9 side. 3-3 away v AC Milan and 2-2 at home v 4th placed Juventus.

14:00 - Parma v Lazio - 1.80 Lazio

Parma - 18th

  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • 3 draws and 4 defeats last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 home matches.
  • In 7 home matches v the top 15, they scored only once.

Lazio - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 was a 3-2 v AC Milan.
  • 2 1-1 draws last 3 away.
  • Scored in their last 12 and last 6 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 15th and lower, winning 4/5 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Parma are having trouble even scoring then that should seal their fate. Lazio will be keen to end a recent points losing run of 2 1-1 draws. They have a great winning record v 15th and lower away so this match could see the return to winning ways.

14:00 - Udinese v Napoli - 1.91 Napoli

Udinese - 13th

  • Deserved equaliser v Bologna last match for a 2-2.
  • But remains no win in 5.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/7 at home.
  • Only wins at home v 18th and lower.

Napoli - 7th

  • Dries Mertens out dries up the goals. Just a single goal v 10 men Spezia who won 1-2.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 matches with just a win.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • 100% win record away v 10th and lower.
  • 10/13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Arthur Daley managing Napoli after that dire performance v Spezia. What do we make of this? Can we trust their usual 100% win record away v 10th and lower, given they play 13th today.
  • Deserved equaliser v 10 men for Udinese but it is a side with no win in 5 and only wins at home v 18th and lower.
  • Napoli do tend to score 2nd half.
  • I don't like trading unreadable teams and Napoli are turning into one.

14:00 - Verona v Crotone - 1.85 Verona

Verona - 9th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 defeats last 4 home matches though.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal v 11th and lower this season.

Conclusions

  • And I break off there. Crotone are infrequent winners, newly promoted yet Verona have 3 defeats in 4 and are yet to score 2 goals v 11th and lower.
  • I would not trust an odds on favourite with that profile, despite their opponents being poor. Leave this to the in-play stats.

17:00 - Fiorentina v Cagliari - 2.00 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 14th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 consecutive home draws.
  • 0-0 last home match.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 4 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.

Cagliari - 15th

  • 2 draws and 3 losses last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • No win in 9 and in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Form lines are close. Fiorentina are unbeaten at home v 12th and lower. Cagliari are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower. So arguably both sides have a shout here.

19:45 - Juventus v Sassuolo - 1.44 Juventus

Juventus - 4th

  • Buoyed by a 1-3 win away at AC Milan of all sides, Juve will be itching to follow that up today.
  • Juve's only home loss was a red card affected match and is not a sign of any dropping in form.
  • That was the only match in which they failed to score.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All score draws v 3rd-10th home and away.
  • 6 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Sassuolo - 5th

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss came last match v Atalanta.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • 12/17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo's struggles v the top 6 are clear, and the recent mauling at the hands of Atalanta doesn't augur well for today against a Juventus delighted to have put the league leaders to the sword and away from home. Expect a Juventus goal at some point. Expect 2nd half goals if none first half. And Lay Sassuolo if they score first.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord - 1.91 Feyenoord

Sparta - 9th

  • 5 wins and 2 losses last 7 matches.
  • 2 wins and a 2-3 loss last 3 at home.
  • All 5 wins have come within the last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away or beaten a top 8 side at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 13/16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Feyenoord - 3rd

  • Only 1 win all season came last away match v Vitesse.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 5/7 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Sparta's wins are all coming within the last 7 matches so they have that momentum and have scored in their last 6 at home but have notably not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • Feyenoord's only loss was a 1-0 and the match was flagged up by the market as a toughie. Slight odds on favouritism today for Feyenoord. I would look to them not to lose but will monitor the in-play stats.

13:30 - Heerenveen v Fortuna Sittard - 1.73 Heerenveen

Heerenveen - 8th

  • 4 score draws and 2 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-3 win v Sittard earlier this season.

Sittard - 13th

  • Come alive last 4 matches. 3 wins and a draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 matches this season so need 2 goals to win.
  • All defeats home and away have come v the top 8.
  • 11/15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sittard are in excellent recent form but are yet to beat the top 8 so that solid run has a context. I think they will be competitive with this momentum and even score. Heerenveen are in poor recent form but did beat Sittard 1-3 earlier this season.
  • Note Sittard concede the most 2nd half so may be layable if leading at halftime.

13:30 - Venlo v Willem-II - 2.37 Willem II

Venlo - 16th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 matches this season.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home win v 12th.
  • 2-1 loss v Willem II earlier this season.
  • 17 of 25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Willem II - 15th

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have had only 2 wins.
  • No clean sheets v only 2 clean sheets?
  • These 2 are poor but Willem II did win the head to head earlier this season.

15:45 - Ajax v PSV Eindhoven - 1.61 Ajax

  • I tend to avoid these top 2 clashes but the market has clearly not shirked its responsibility. Ajax clear favourite.
  • Only 2 losses plays only 1 loss.
  • Notably for me, PSV are a little ropier on the road. Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win away from home.