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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 10, 2017

Good old fashioned live chat yesterday. The underdog scores first, the favourite equalises and pushes on. We saw it with 2-goal-at-home Palace, Monaco came from 0-2 down, Dortmund, Heerenveen, and Rangers. It's also nice when teams play as per their season-long form patterns. It makes for a profitable session.
More today please. 14:00 for those Italian espresso slurpers. See you here at delayreacttrade.com and simultaneously on Twitter.
There is another shortlist at the DRT Facebook page which lists the key stats (which were very effective yesterday). The key stats are in bold below for those who do not like facebook et al.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - Southampton v Arsenal - 1.98 Arsenal

  • Arsenal have won 3 of the last 4 matches.

Southampton (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 10 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home. Home defeats have been 0-2, 0-1 and 0-1.
  • 5 defeats v top 8, failing to score in 4 of them.

Arsenal (5th)

  • Only 1 draw was a 0-0.
  • Only 5 defeats, 4 of which came away from home.
  • Win, Loss, Win in 3 away.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • All wins have come v teams below them.
  • Lost away to 8th and 13th.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Southampton struggle v the top 8 consistently, even failing to score in defeat. Arsenal are coming off the back of win, loss, win in 3 away so they are winning now.
  • Arsenal, if they lose, tend to lose away from home..
  • There is a strong 2nd half bias with Arsenal away matches so take on any 0-0 at halftime.
  • On form, Arsenal should not lose.

14:15 - Liverpool v Everton - 1.33 Liverpool

  • New manager for Everton.

Liverpool

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 3+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home is very interesting given we tend to think of goals when we think of Liverpool.
  • In 7 of 9 matches v 8th and lower, Liverpool have scored 3+ goals.
  • 5 clean sheets at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Everton

  • We may see a lurch in this Everton side from gung ho goals to tough to beat. Big Sam Allardyce is in charge now.
  • 3-2-1-4-2 goals scored by Everton recently may not continue under Allardyce.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in 7 away.
  • Not won away.

Conclusions

  • Hard to read Everton under Big Sam now. Were Unsworth still in charge, I would go for goals here today.
  • Liverpool are excellent at home. Look at the 5 clean sheets. Look at the 3 goals scored v 8th and lower.
  • Everton may suddenly improve defensively, an Allardyce trait. On form though I have to be with the home side.
  • Do note those 4 0-0's at halftime for Liverpool at home.

16:30 - Man Utd v Man City - 2.28 Man City

  • Another high profile derby which I will leave alone.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11:00 - Sociedad v Malaga - 1.55 Sociedad

  • 0-2 Sociedad and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Sociedad (9th)

  • Scored and conceded in 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home defeats v top 4 teams.
  • Interestingly opponents have scored first in 5/7 home matches.

Malaga (20th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Lost every away match.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • Lost every match v top 6 away.
  • Failed to score in 6 away matches.
  • Opponents scored first in every away match.

Conclusions

  • If you don't score, you don't win. Malaga have failed to score in all bar 1 away match.
  • Sociedad like scoring and conceding but if conceding first I would certainly lay Malaga.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:15 - Betis v Atletico Madrid - 1.8 Atl Madrid

  • Madrid are unbeaten in 12 head to heads.

Betis (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 home draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in every home match.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss at home was v 2nd.
  • A massive 9 goals scored at home in the last 15 mins of matches.

Atl Madrid (3rd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Great 2-1 win from behind last match saw Madrid come to life 2nd half.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away now.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Have been behind at halftime twice away so note that.
  • Clean sheets in the 3 matches v top 10 teams.
  • 9 goals scored away in the last 30 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Madrid are tough to score against away and that may see them come away with a positive today.
  • Atl Madrid can turn it on 2nd half so watch out if they are behind at halftime. I would take on Betis if Betis lead at halftime.
  • We might see late goal action, particularly if Madrid need a goal from the 60th+ minute.

17:30 - Levante v Athletic Bilbao - 2.06 Ath Bilbao

  • Athletic Bilbao tend to score 2 goals in head to heads and remain unbeaten.

Levante (14th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Led only once at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals at home v 12th, 17th and 19th.
  • Opponents scored first in 6/8 at home.

Ath Bilbao (16th)

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao tend to enjoy meeting Levante in head to heads but have only 1 away win.
  • There is a chance Ath Bilbao can get a result given Levante have conceded 2 goals at home v 12th, 17th and 19th.
  • Tentatively I would lay levante if Levante score first.

19:45 - Villarreal v Barcelona - 1.56 Barcelona

  • 2-2, 1-1 and 4-1 Barcelona in the last 3 head to heads. The market has due deference to Villareal, in quoting Barcelona at over 1.5 odds.

Villareal (6th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats conceding 3 goals.
  • 3 wins at home ended with a 2-3 loss v Sevilla.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team. In fact all defeats bar one has come v the top 9.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 4/6 at home.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • 2 consecutive score draws though.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 away matches.
  • In 12 matches, Barcelona have scored 2+ goals.
  • 2 1-0 defeats at halftime away but note Barca are unbeaten.
  • The only draws away came v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Villareal are conceding 3 goals at the wrong time. They meet a Barcelona scoring 2+ goals in 12 matches this season.
  • Barcelona I suspect will also be keen to end a 2 match score draw sequence. That's 4 points dropped and any score draw sequence will bring the chasing pack closer to them.
  • Do note Barca have lost 2 matches at halftime but are unbeaten this season. A good angle in, particularly if Villareal score 2 goals at home again.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Amiens v Lyon - 1.65 Lyon

Amiens (9th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 home matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten a top 8 team home or away.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Lyon (2nd)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 5 consecutive away matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 5 wins and a 3-3 away v 6th and lower.
  • Scored 11 goals in each half away.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/8 away and in 5/8 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lille showed that if you can keep Lyon from scoring that 2nd goal, then you have a chance. Well this Amiens side kept PSG out for 42 minutes and have had only 4 over 2.5 goals matches this season.
  • Lyon will pin their hopes on the fact that, despite 3 wins in 4 at home, Amiens are yet to beat a top 8 side.
  • We might see a defensive set up from Amiens. Lyon do tend to score 2 goals away though. It looks like defence v attack.

16:00 - Nantes v Nice - 2.2 Nantes

  • 4-1 Nice and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Nantes (5th)

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches saw 3 of the 4 losses come in so a slight dip in form.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home with 4 0-0's.
  • Only 1 loss was a 0-1 v 4th at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

Nice (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Beat 6th away 0-1 and 1-1 v 7th away.

Conclusions

  • Nantes are having a great season and may continue along that line today. But Nice did beat 6th 0-1 and draw 1-1 with 7th away this season.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

20:00 - Marseille v St Etienne - 1.55 Marseille

  • 0-0 and 4-0 Marseille in the last 2 head to heads.

Marseille (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 5th and lower.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

St Etienne (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches away.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Beat 7th and 10th 0-1 away.

Conclusions

  • St Etienne are having trouble winning and with Marseille unbeaten in 11 matches, St Etienne may have to wait.
  • Marseille have scored in every match so expect a goal if a protracted 0-0.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

12:30 - FC Koln v Freiburg - 2.38 FC Koln

  • Koln won the last home head to head 3-0.

FC Koln (18th and bottom)

  • No win.
  • Only 3 draws, 2 were 0-0 and one came last match 2-2.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came in the 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 at home.
  • 7 1-0 scorelines at halftime in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 matches at home and not yet scored 2 goals at home.

Freiburg (16th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 away.
  • Home form for Koln is the same as away form for Freiburg.
  • Koln have only scored 2 home goals to Freiburg's 2 away goals.

Conclusions

  • This makes painful reading. A home team without a win plays an away team without an away win.
  • I will be giving this match a wide berth.

14:30 - Hannover v Hoffenheim - 2.5 Hoffenheim

  • Hoffenheim tend to win head to heads bar the last match, a 1-0 Hannover win.

Hannover (10th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 wins at home but did beat 3rd and 6th.

Hoffenheim (5th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 saw all 3 defeats this season.
  • Very strange side. 3-0 loss to Hamburg and then suddenly a 4-0 win v Liepzig.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All score draws v 7th-12th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • The Hoff are getting inconsistent. Both sides are in poor recent winning form.
  • Interesting to see a strong score draw pattern for the Hoff v 7th-12th inclusive. Will that happen again today? If you think so then lay the first team to score.

17:00 - Augsburg v Hertha Berlin - 1.91 Augsburg

  • 0-0, 0-0, 2-0 Hertha in the last 3 head to heads.

Augsburg (7th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches only.
  • 1-2, 1-2, 1-1, 2-1 last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Hertha (12th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only win v bottom of the league away.

Conclusions

  • Hertha are not too hot away and have only beaten bottom of the league away.
  • Both teams could score today if you note Augsburg's 2-1/1-1/1-2 scores recently at home.
  • Bar those points, not the most exciting match in the world.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Chievo v Roma - 1.61 Roma

  • Roma have scored 3 goals in each of the last 4 head to heads.

Chievo (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 home matches came v AC Milan.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 6 team.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match, a 0-0 v 2nd placed Napoli.

Roma (4th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away. 3 0-0's.
  • All wins bar 1 v teams below them in the league.
  • Scored first in all aways.

Conclusions

  • Roma look likely to score first and remain unbeaten away. Chievo have trouble v the top 6. Chievo should be layed if scoring first.
  • We may see both teams score here without Chievo winning.
  • With 3 0-0's at halftime away, we may see a 0-0 at halftime but not fulltime.

14:00 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.37 Napoli

  • Napoli are unbeaten in 8 head to heads.

Napoli (2nd)

  • Only loss came last match v Juventus.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home and at halftime at home.
  • Only dropped points at home came v top 3.

Fiorentina (7th)

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2 1-1 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4 defeats and a 1-1 v teams above them in the league. 4 defeats and a 1-1 away v the top 16 teams they have played.

Conclusions

  • Napoli were worryingly poor in the Champions League mid week, failing to beat a Feyenoord side themselves who are simply poor in that competition .
  • They lost their last match, v Juventus and to be fair to them at home, Napoli have beaten all comers outside of the top 3.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and any late 0-0
  • Fiorentina may get on the score sheet. They have scored in their last to matches but then cannot beat top 16 teams away or any team above them in the league home and away. I currently see little reason for Fiorentina to secure an end to those winless sequences today.

14:00 - Udinese v Benevento - 1.49 Udinese

Udinese (14th)

  • No draw.
  • 3 consecutive home losses, the last 2 were 0-1.
  • Failed to score only in those 0-1 losses.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 wins v 15th, 16th and 17th (last 2 came away).
  • Not met the bottom 5 at home.

Benevento (20th)

  • No win but first point of the season in a famous 2-2 v AC Milan where the goalkeeper scored the equaliser.
  • All away defeats.
  • No clean sheet.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime but none at fulltime.

Conclusions

  • Udinese are really not in the best of form and the 1.49 odds are simply down to Benevento's poor season.
  • A 2-2 v Milan saw their first point of the season. But first win? Udinese have 3 wins v 15th and lower with 2 of those wins without home advantage and that hints at a positive result today.
  • But will that point last match bring forth a new Benevento?

17:00 - Sassuolo v Crotone - 1.83 Sassuolo

  • 2-1 Sassuolo and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Sassuolo (17th)

  • Only 3 wins actually came away from home, 2 0-1's and a 1-2.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 7 at home.
  • No win at home nor at halftime at home.
  • Wins away came v 13th and lower.

Crotone (16th)

  • 5 defeats in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor teams. No surprise to see a 0-0 here for a while.
  • There is an argument to be made for Sassulo. If they are beating teams 13th and lower away from home, they can then logically perform better at home?

19:45 - AC Milan v Bologna - 1.56 AC Milan

  • 4 Milan wins in 5 head to heads saw them keep clean sheets in those wins.

AC Milan (8th)

  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches came away from home.
  • Failed to score in 4 at home.
  • Despite the poor form, it is important to note that AC Milan have only lost to top 6 sides.

Bologna (9th)

  • 2 wins and a 1-1 draw last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost their 3 away v top 10, albeit 2 1-0 defeats and a 2-1.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This could be tighter than the odds suggest. Bologna have only just lost when playing top 10, and tend to keep it to 0-0 at halftime.
  • AC Milan may find them tough to score against.
  • AC Milan do tend to lose exclusively to top 6 teams though.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Hibernian v Celtic - 1.53 Celtic

  • 2-2 and 2-4 Celtic in the last 2 head to heads. This could be competitive.

Hibernian (4th)

  • 2-2 with Celtic earlier this season.
  • Only 1 home win v top 9.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only lost one match at halftime at home.
  • Have conceded 7 home goals last 1/2 hour of matches.

Celtic (1st)

  • All wins bar a 1-1 with Motherwell away.
  • Have conceded in only 2 away matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Have had 4 0-0's at halftime but none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 and led at halftime in 5/8 away.

Conclusions

  • Celtic have conceded in only 2 away matches and are unbeaten with all wins bar 1 draw. Hibs have only 1 home win v the top 9 but have managed to score 2 goals v Celtic in 2 head to heads.
  • My hope today? A 2-0 Hibs lead so I can lay Hibs.