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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 9, 2017

Please make yourself aware of the Champions League teams playing on Tuesday 12th September and Wednesday 13th September. I have spoken in the past about the Curse of the Champions League, where some teams seem to sacrifice the preceding league match in order to further the Champions League cause. Mourinho is a key proponent of this and he plays a tough-to-beat Stoke side. We saw yesterday that PSG led, then Metz equalised, Sporting Lisbon led, then Feirense equalised TWICE, Anderlecht were 1-2 down (but won 3-2, a scoreline I selected on Twitter), Benfica 0-1 down needed a red card to equalise and win 2-1. You might want some short odds lays of any Champions League side leading today. I must relay to you though that PSG won (after a Metz red card), Sporting Lisbon won (late desmond profit - 1.1 odds for me!), Anderlecht won from 1-2 down.
Nice to see the Elite leagues return and there is no coincidence that profits increased in the live chat. Please note that my Dad arrives today at 13:15 at the airport. I do not have the connections to fasttrack him through immigration and get us back in time for the Bundesliga. I will have a mobile device with me and hope to tweet in time for the German Bundesliga at 14:30 See you on Twitter @drtclub.
My research is stats based. There are few stats to work with so the research is barren and there is nothing I can do about that until form fleshes out. As you will see (and you saw it yesterday with the Hamburg match last night), I use the information below in play as a reference. For example if 0-0 at halftime in the Arsenal match, I would note the 3-1 and 3-3 in head to heads and use that to evaluate the prospect of goals 2nd half.

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

12:30 - Man City v Liverpool - 1.89 Man City

  • Both sides have a Champions League match on the 12th September.
  • 1-0 Liverpool and 1-1 last 2 head to heads. Note the Champions League aspect here.
  • This will be entertaining but as a tradable match, it is tough to call.

15:00 - Arsenal v Bournemouth - 1.38 Arsenal

  • Arsenal have a Europa League match on the 14th September.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Arsenal home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 9/14 home matches.
  • 3-1 Arsenal and 3-3 the last 2 head to heads.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats for Arsenal. A 4-3 win v Leicester at home.
  • 3 consecutive losses for Bournemouth.

15:00 - Brighton v West Brom - 2.74 Brighton

  • A real feeling here that West Brom may simply have too much noise for Brighton.
  • 2 1-0 wins and a 1-1 for West Brom. The Pulis Machine is in full effect. With Brighton failing to score against teams not as defensively adept as West Brom, I can foresee problems for Brighton.
  • West Brom's last 2 goals came 2nd half. I would be looking for that 0-1 second half if 0-0 at halftime. Brighton will score at some point, and this is a sequence which will inevitably end, but v a Pulis-managed West Brom?

15:00 - Everton v Tottenham - 2.18 Tottenham

  • Tottenham are in the Champions League on 13th September.
  • Everton play in the Europa League on 14th September.
  • Similar results for both sides this season, a win, loss and a draw.
  • Both sides lost to Chelsea.

15:00 - Leicester v Chelsea - 1.82 Chelsea

  • Chelsea are in the Champions League on 12th September.
  • 2 consecutive 3-0 wins for Chelsea. Having already lost to Arsenal and Man Utd, we have a template for what to expect today against another top 5 team.
  • Leicester should be conceding 2 goals at least today.Chelsea have scored 2 goals in all 3 matches so that ties in well.
  • That is my expectation and something to work with too should Leicester score first.

15:00 - Southampton v Watford - 1.69 Southampton

  • 1-1 and 3-4 Southampton last 2 head to heads. Not quite in keeping with a slightly faltering Southampton.
  • 2 0-0's this season for Saints. Saints beat West Ham 3-2. Saints utterly dominate Swansea without scoring.
  • Watford are unbeaten this season. 3-3 v Liverpool was more down to Liverpool defensive woes than any Watford attacking strengths.
  • Southampton do look, despite the 0-0's, to have a strong attacking ethos. I would favour Southampton today but 0-0 is obviously in play.

17:30 - Stoke v Man Utd - 1.53 Man Utd

  • Man Utd are in the Champions League on 12th September.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
  • Stoke have kept it tight. 1-0 loss Everton, 1-0 win Arsenal, 1-1 West Brom.
  • Man Utd, solid. No goal conceded, 10 scored.8 goals scored 2nd half.
  • With United we have that 2nd half angle for goals. 0-0 is a possibility if this defensive Stoke side turns up.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, 0-2 appeals for me 2nd half.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Leeds v Burton - 1.6 Leeds

  • 2-0 Leeds and 2-1 Burton in the last 2 head to heads. Will the home team dominate? The market thinks so.
  • 4 clean sheets in an unbeaten run now for Leeds.
  • Leeds 2 0-0's at home is a sequence which should end. 0-0 sequences are not long sequences.
  • No clean sheet for Burton suggests that Leeds can end that 0-0. I am with the home side today.

15:00 - Fulham v Cardiff - 2.14 Fulham

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Top of the league Cardiff may be worth following this season? 5 wins out of 5, the last 2 wins were 2-1 and remember the both teams to score pattern in head to heads.
  • Cardiff conceded first last match and equalised so with this good start, it is a consideration to lay Fulham if Fulham scores first.
  • 3 draws, a loss and a win for Fulham who have only scored 2 goals once this season in a match. Not quite matching up to last season where Fulham scored 2 goals at least on 26 occasions.
  • The market is tentative but recent form is with Cardiff here for me. An away win v Wolves is a good result given Wolves were inserted near the head of the market for outright winner in the Championship.

17:30 - Sheff Wed v Nottm Forest - 1.88 Sheff

  • 5 matches in and what a contrast. All under 2.5 goals for Wed and 4 matches where one team scored at least 2 goals for Forest.
  • The market is with the home side today who have yet to score a 2nd goal in a game. They remain unbeaten which suggests over reliance on defence.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches. We can look at this and say to lay the first team to score? On 2 occasions, the opponent scored first, and Wed equalised. Will that be the case today?
  • Forest have yet to have a 0-0 at halftime in their 4 matches.

15:00 - Reading v Bristol City - 2.52 Reading

  • 2-1 Reading and 2-3 Reading in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Reading's 2 losses this year came away from home.
  • Both teams scored in Reading's 2 home matches.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Bristol's 5 matches. 3 consecutive draws for Bristol City.
  • I would take a chance and lay the draw here. It is a sequence which should end.

15:00 - QPR v Ipswich - 2.04 QPR

  • The home time has tended to win head to heads. Will that continue today?
  • 2 wins out of 2 at home for QPR is encouraging. Only 1 clean sheet though for QPR.
  • Ipswich won their opening 4 matches and lost their next v Fulham.
  • Will the home side continue to win as they have done in the last 4 head to heads?

SPANISH PRIMERA DIVISION

12:00 - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.08 Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid have a Champions League match on 13th September.
  • Levante are back in the top flight.
  • We are yet to see Levante v any of the big 3 so nothing to gauge. 3 and 2 goals for Real Madrid so far and we should expect 2 goals minimum from Real Madrid and even a goal before halftime.
  • 1.08 suggests 3+ goals. Levante 1-0 win v Villareal and 2-2 v Deportivo.
  • There was a real angle v Valencia last match but here all we know is a newly promoted side could surprise. Play this via the inplay stats but expect an on song Real to score before halftime and score 3 goals at least.

15:15 - Valencia v Atletico Madrid - 2.24 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid have a Champions League match on 12th September.
  • 4 consecutive head to head wins for Atl Madrid suggests an ability to cope with Valencia.
  • Valencia's 2-2 with real Madrid was not unexpected if you read the research, so don't read too much into that. 7 goals for Madrid in 2 away matches.
  • Both teams have scored in Madrid's 2 matches. Watch out for Valencia scoring first as Madrid look capable of responding, especially given their confidence from the head to heads.

17:30 - Sevilla v Eibar - 1.66 Sevilla

  • Sevilla have a Champions League match on 13th September.
  • Sevilla do tend to go unbeaten in head to heads. It tends to be a home win to nil and a 1-1 away in recent matches.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Eibar away matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 10/20 Eibar away matches.
  • Sevilla have scored first in 8/8 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • All under 2.5 goals and 3 under 1.5 goals matches for these 2 in their matches this season.
  • 1-1 and 0-1 away win for Sevilla and a 0-1 away win and 0-1 loss to Bilbao for Eibar. This goes against the +3.5 goals Eibar away pattern from last season.
  • I do not expect Sevilla to lose today. They do tend to get a win to nil. Note that if 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Barcelona v Espanyol - 1.18 Barcelona

  • Barcelona have a Champions League match on 12th September.
  • 7 goals in 2 head to heads in Barcelona's favour.
  • 3 of Barca's 4 goals were scored by Messi. 2 professional 2-0 wins for Barcelona.
  • 1-1 and 0-1 loss for Espanyol.
  • Barca normally enjoy meeting Espanyol, with 3 goals at least the norm. Espanyol have conceded before halftime in their 2 matches so far, so that is an angle today. A Barcelona first half goal.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v FC Koln - 2.5 Augsburg

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's ended with a 2-1 Augsburg last match.
  • The market cannot split the teams.
  • Not today. In-play stats.

14:30 - Freiburg v Dortmund - 1.45 Dortmund

  • Dortmund tend to enjoy meeting Freiburg and tend to score 3 goals.
  • 0-0 and 4-1 loss for Freiburg this season. They conceded 4 goals v Leipzig who were 2nd last season.
  • Dortmund are yet to concede in 2 wins, scoring 5 goals. Dortmund do look good from this very small sample and given Freiburg's spanking to Leipzig (which saw Leipzig score 4 goals in 3 consecutive matches v Leipzig), I would expect Dortmund to score 3 goals at least today.

14:30 - Mainz v Leverkusen - 2.52 Leverkusen

  • 2-3 Bayer and 0-2 Mainz in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 2 1-0 losses for Mainz came 2nd half. Will Mainz attempt another 0-0 at halftime?
  • Leverkusen have had a tough set of openers v Bayern and Hoffenheim. One of the goals v Hoffenheim was a penalty.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, I would oppose said 0-0. Tough to evaluate Leverkusen given they have played 2 teams they were not expected to beat.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.92 Mgladbach

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads. 0-0 sequences tend to end.
  • Frankfurt have yet to score in a 0-0 and 0-1.
  • 1-0 win and 2-2 for Mgladbach.
  • I do expect the 0-0 head to head sequence to end.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Hannover - 1.93 Wolfsburg

  • No head to heads since March 2016.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/11 Wolfsburg home matches against promoted teams.
  • Top-six promoted teams have conceded first in 57% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • 2 Hannover wins were 1-0 and Wolfsburg's single win was a 1-0. It does follow the under 2.5 goals pattern.
  • Hannover's wins came 2nd half. If 0-0 at halftime, I would consider laying the late draw.

17:30 - Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich - 1.47 Bayern

  • Hoffenheim have a Europa League match on 14th September. Bayern have a Champions League match on 12th September.
  • 1-1 and 1-0 Hoffenheim in the last head to heads.This is a new, well-behaved Hoffenheim!
  • Hoff beat Werder 1-0 and drew 2-2 v Leverkusen. 3-1 and 0-2 Bayern against the exact same opponents.
  • We have collateral form here. If Bayern are in trouble it seems that Robert Lewandowski is the go-to guy. He has scored all of his 3 goals in the second half.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Nice v Monaco - 1.87 Monaco

  • Monaco have won the last 2 head to heads, at Monaco and Nice won the last head to head at Nice.
  • This is a Cote D'azur derby.
  • Without Falcao, Monaco would be in trouble. He is scoring for fun in Monaco's 4 wins. 3-4-1-6 goals so far this season.
  • 3 losses and a win for Nice.
  • Nice are lacking this season and I would have thought that Monaco's odds would be shorter. The odds could be because this is a derby.
  • The home side has won the last 3 head to heads. A match to watch given the derby aspect but a nod towards Monaco.

19:00 - Caen v Dijon - 2.04 Caen

  • 3-3 and 2-0 Dijon in the 2 head to heads.
  • 2 losses and 2 wins for Caen. 2 1-0 losses, a 0-2 win and 1-0 win. 4 of the 5 goals in Caen's matches came 2nd half.
  • 3-5-4-3 goals in total in Dijon matches is in stark contrast.
  • A lack of congruity here means inplay stats will reveal any play.

19:00 - ESTAC Troyes v Toulouse - 2.62 Toulouse

  • Very little to go on considering Toulouse's 2 away matches were v Monaco and PSG and of course expected defeats!
  • 1-1 and 0-1 for Troyes at home this season.

19:00 - Montpellier v Nantes - 2.3 Montpellier

  • Nantes won the last 2 head to heads.
  • Montpellier have scored in 3 of 4 matches this season. Nantes have failed to score in 3 of 4 matches this season.
  • Back 0-0 pre match in anticipation of a goal-barren match?
  • 2 Monpellier matches have seen 40th+ minute first half goals. So if 0-0 40th minute, you can lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market just incase a goal happens to show up. Liabilities will be low.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Juventus v Chievo - 1.2 Juventus

  • 3 consecutive Juventus wins in head to heads.
  • Simply brilliant last match Juventus away at Genoa. 2-0 down to 2-2 at halftime to 2-4 win. 7 goals in 2 matches.
  • Chievo should have no chance.1-2 win and 1-2 loss for Chievo this season.

19:45 - Sampdoria v Roma - 1.91 Roma

  • 2-1 Roma, 3-2 Roma, 3-2 Sampdoria in the last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 2-1 wins for Sampdoria this season. Quagriarella is the man for Samp. If he is not playing, then goals will be scarce.
  • 0-1 win and 1-3 loss v Inter Milan for Roma. Inter Milan look a solid team this year.
  • There is a strong both teams to score pattern in head to heads. At least one team has scored 2 goals.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Hearts v Aberdeen - 2.02 Aberdeen

  • 2-0 Aberdeen and 1-2 Aberdeen in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 win for Hearts and a 0-0 for Hearts v Rangers. That could be the template for today.
  • Aberdeen are in excellent form.2-2-2-4 goals scored this season.Aberdeen have scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • I do think that Aberdeen can fight back if Hearts score first. They seem to have a good goalscoring pattern to date this season.

15:00 - Motherwell v Kilmarnock - 2.1 Motherwell

  • 1-2, 3-1 Motherwell in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Motherwell have scored in their 4 matches.2 losses and 2 wins.
  • Motherwell have been competitive at home. 1-2 v rangers, 2-0 and 2-1 wins thereafter.
  • 3 defeats and a 2-2 for Kilmarnock v Hamilton.
  • I fancy Motherwell here. I will lay Kilmarnock if Killy score first (and they could given the both teams to score pattern for Motherwell).

15:00 - Rangers v Dundee - 1.37 Rangers

  • 2-1 Dundee last head to head. I do think that Rangers will get stronger with each season back in the SPL.
  • 3 losses and a 1-1 for Dundee this season saw them score and concede on 3 occasions. If Dundee score first therefore, their pattern this season suggests laying them if they score first.
  • 2 wins, a loss and draw for Rangers. Rangers lost v Hibs because of a red card I would suggest.
  • 2-2-0-3 goals for Rangers this season. This looks a good match to focus on. Let's hope Dundee scores first as they are layable.

15:00 - Ross Co v Partick - 2.58 Ross Co

  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads with Partick winning the last 2.
  • The market cannot split these 2.
  • It has been a really tough start for Partick with defeats v Hibs, Celtic, St Johnstone and Aberdeen. To be honest, those are 4 strong sides in this league. Maybe their season begins today in a match in which their sights are lowered.
  • Ross won their opener but have 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Ross at home have met Rangers and Aberdeen so really were not expected to get anything there.
  • These 2 will be eyeing the win today as for once this season they do not meet a top 3 side.
  • I could see both teams scoring and given Partick's record, I would give them the nod today and look at laying Ross if Ross scored first.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Hibernian - 2.5 Hibs

  • Both teams to score is a prevailing pattern for both sides.
  • Hibs are newly promoted.Their win v Rangers saw Rangers get red carded so that needs a context. What should worry Hibs is their 1-3 loss to Hamilton and 1-1 with Dundee.
  • St Johnstone may surprise a few this season. They began catching my eye in the cup and so far have 3 wins and a deserved 1-1 draw with Celtic.
  • A tentative nod towards St. J today despite the market being unwilling to pick a favourite.
  • Hibs do look vulnerable if scoring first today and have those both teams to score stats.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heracles v Feyenoord - 1.47 Feyenoord

  • 3-2-1-3 goals scored by Feyenoord in head to heads.
  • Heracles are unbeaten, including a win v Ajax of all teams.2 score draws though for Heracles may suggest they are vulnerable if they score first.
  • 3 wins for Feyenoord. Ticking away nicely. I think the Heracles win v Ajax was more down to Ajax than Heracles. Feyenoord should continue their 2+ goals today.

17:30 - Willem II v ADO Den Haag - 2.32 Willem II

  • 3 consecutive ADO wins in head to heads.
  • These are the bottom 2, albeit after only 3 matches.
  • These 2have only managed a single goal each this season.
  • A match for me to leave alone unless you fancy the head to heads which suggests ADO will not lose.

19:45 - Ajax v Zwolle - 1.27 Ajax

  • 2-3-5-3 goals scored by Ajax in their last 4 head to heads. Expectation is for a home win.
  • Zwolle are unbeaten this season but their 2 wins came at home.
  • Ajax started the season with an unexpected loss to Heracles but have replied with 2 wins now.
  • I would expect 2 goals from Ajax at least. They have no European competition distractions.

19:45 - Excelsior v Vitesse - 2.4 Vitesse

  • 0-0, 2-2, 1-0 Excelsior in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Both teams scored in Vitesse's 3 matches this season, 2 were wins.
  • Win, Draw, Loss Excelsior so little to read from Excelsior.Both teams did score in 2 Excelsior matches.