The usual busy Saturday is followed by the usual busy Live Chat Webinar. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2016236441753361932 is the link. Please register to attend. 14:30 kick off for Ze Germans.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Crystal Palace v Brighton - 1.89 Palace
Crystal Palace (13th)
- Only 1 loss in 6 was v Man Utd.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8.
- 8 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime.
- Scored in their last 9.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (43%) - quite high.
- Only 1 home loss v 9th and lower. 5 clean sheets in 7 matches though.
- 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 5 losses and a draw last 6 away.
- Scored and conceded last 4 away without the win.
- Conceded in their last 9 away and conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Only 1 away win v the top 19.
- I like Palace currently. Only 1 home loss v 9th and lower, with 5 clean sheets suggests they may be a force today. If Brighton score, they may not win as this has happened on the last 4 aways.
- Only 1 away win v the top 19 has us, on probability alone, siding with Palace so let that be your angle.
- You might want to back 1-0/0-1 after 20+ minutes in the halftime score market. 8 consecutive now for Palace home matches.
15:00 - Cardiff v West Ham - 2.3 West Ham
- 2 wins and 3 losses recently.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
- All defeats bar 1 home and away v the top 10.
- Scored 2 goals only twice, a win and a loss v the top 10.
West Ham (9th)
- 2 wins in 3 came at home.
- Failed to score in 4 of the last 5 away.
- No win in 5 away.
- Conceded in their last 6 away.
- 4 wins and a draw v 17th and lower.
- It looks decisive. All defeats bar 1 win v the top 10 home and away, and Cardiff meet a West Ham sneaking into the top 10. Despite West Ham's poor recent form, we need a context. They have 4 wins and a draw v 17th and lower.
15:00 - Huddersfield v Bournemouth - 2.36 Bournemouth
- Only 3 wins all season for Huddersfield, 2 were v Wolves.
- With only 5 clean sheets all season, they are likely to concede.
- 2-1 loss v Bournemouth earlier in the season.
- Only 2 home wins were 1-0 v Wolves and Fulham - interestingly 2 newly promoted sides.
- Huddersfield are yet to score that 2nd goal at home.
- Bournemouth have been going through a sticky patch. 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches. Only 4 wins since 3rd November 2018 came at home.
- 9 consecutive away defeats is the reason they are such high odds.
- They have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 9 away.
- 2/2 wins v the bottom 2.
- Bournemouth are conceding 2 away but meet a Huddersfield incapable of scoring 2 goals at home. So, if this pattern carries on, lay Huddersfield if they score first
15:00 - Leicester v Fulham - 1.63 Leicester
- No indepth research here as we have 2 new managers.
- 6 losses, a draw and a win for Leicester recently. 3-4-1-2 goals conceded recently, a far cry from an earlier pattern for defensive strength.
- Leicester conceded in their last 7 and last 8 overall.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime both sides.
- Leicester lost at home to 17th and 18th and play 19th today, a side they drew 1-1 with last time.
- Only 4 wins for Fulham all season. The reason Leicester are such short odds is the 8 losses and a win last 9 matches.
- No win in 15 away, Fulham have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches and last 5 away.
- Fulham failed to score that 2nd goal away v the top 15.
- Ordinarily a team with 6 recent losses would not be 1.63 favourites but it seems this Fulham side are gettable away.
- Niggles? New manager for both sides mean fresh ideas and tactics might see an improvement.
15:00 - Newcastle v Everton - 2.86 home and away
- I will not research 2.86 the favourite. Inevitably the research points to good arguments to back/oppose both sides when we see odds like this.
15:00 - Southampton v Tottenham - 1.92 Tottenham
- Only 1 win in 5 came at home v Fulham.
- Scored and conceded in 10 under new manager but not in 2 of the last 3 matches.
- Under new manager, 3-2 win v Arsenal, 1-3 loss to Man City, 0-0 v Chelsea, 2-0 loss to Arsenal and 3-2 loss to Man Utd is the record v the top 6.
- Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Win at home under new manager. Only 2 clean sheets under new manager.
- 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches may have been Champions League affected.
- 2 consecutive away wins.
- No draw in 15 away.
- 100% wins v bottom 4. 3-1 win over Saints earlier in the season.
- All wins bar 1 away v 9th and lower.
- 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- We need to look at Saints form only under the new manager with a particular focus on top sides. 3-2 win by Arsenal was negated by a 2-0 loss away. Elsewhere no other wins and conceding 2-3-0-2-3 goals. On that basis expectation is for Tottenham to score 2/3 goals today and get the win IF they have not been drained by that Champions League win.
17:30 - Manchester City v Watford - 1.17 Man City
- Expectation for 3/4 goals from Man City and a goal before halftime......but, at these odds recently Man City have laboured to 2 1-0 wins. One of those goals was a penalty so this may not be the performance of a traditional 1.17 shot. You may even want to take a contrarian position and back 0-0 pre match if that recent pattern continues and hope for a laboured performance. Remembering too that this Watford side have been tough cookies.
- Only 4 defeats since 4th December were ....1-2 v Man City, 1-2 v Chelsea, 2-1 v Tottenham and 5-0 v Liverpool.
- Man City have had 2 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
- So, as I say, if that recent pattern of underwhelming wins at short odds continues for City, back 0-0 pre match. If Watford score, look at the ream of 2-1 defeats v the big boys and expect same.
- Ordinarily with a 1.17 shot we look at 0-0 20 minutes then 1-0, 2-0 halftime score market but as I say can we trust this City?
14:30 kick offs
Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.27 Bayern
- Small matter of a match with Liverpool mid week in the Champions League. Will that affect performance?
- Same points as Dortmund now so it is a shoot out for the title.
- 11 wins in 12. Did lose to Leverkusen away.
- 5 consecutive home wins.
- Scored in their last 17 matches.
- Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower. 1-3 win v the Wolf earlier this season.
- 3 wins and 2 score draws last 5 matches.
- 3 clean sheets in the wins.
- Not played the top 3 away.
- Beat 4th-8th away.
- What chance a Champions League distracted Bayern today? If not, on seasonal form, Bayern should go unbeaten albeit we do not know how the Wolf will play as they have not met top 3 away but have beaten 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th away.
- Bayern have scored last 17 matches so expect a goal at some point.
Dortmund v Stuttgart - 1.32 Dortmund
- No more Champions League so concentrate on the league title.
- Only 2 defeats but lost 2-1 to Augsburg last match - pre Champions League.
- 2+ goals scored in last 12 at home.
- Conceded in their last 5 at home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- All wins at home v 10th and lower.
- Only 5 wins.Beat Hannover 5-1 latest.
- No win in 6 away.
- Conceded in their last 11 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away (42%).
- 100% defeats v the top 7 home and away. Failed to score in 4/5 away defeats v top 7.
- 19 of 28 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Contrasting halftime score stats. With Dortmund you expect no 0-0 at halftime but 42% away for Stuttgart.
- Stuttgart tend to lose to top 7 home and away without scoring. With no Champions League, Dortmund should score 2+ goals yet again and win easily.
Leipzig v Augsburg - 1.4 Leipzig
- Unbeaten in 6 matches with 4 wins.
- No win in 3 at home with 2 consecutive draws.
- Only 1 home loss v 1st.
- Beat 16th and lower at home.
- 6 losses in 8 matches.
- Won their last match at home v Dortmund of all people.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Conceded last 12 away and conceded 2+ goals last 4 away.
- Only 1 win v the top 10 was that win v Dortmund.
- Conceded 15 goals last 30 mins of away matches.
- On probability alone, Augsburg should not be winning. Yes they had their first win v a top 10 side last match but tend not to win. That's how I'd enter the match. Only 2 clean sheets tells us Leipzig should score and even score 2 goals. Should be a straightforward home advantage so react to anything else.
Freiburg v Hertha - 2.68 Freiburg
- I will not research 2.68 the favourite matches
Mainz v Mgladbach - 2.3 Mgladbach
- 4 losses in 5 matches.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Scored in their last 8 at home.
- 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (42%).
- Not beaten a top 9 side.
- Scored and conceded v all top 6 at home without winning.
- 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 4 away, no defeat in 3 away.
- Gap in form v 12th and lower. Only 3 teams played. Loss, Win Draw.
- Mgladbach at home reap a harvest v 12th and lower but away there is a bit of a lack of form. Mainz are in poor recent form and do not keep too many clean sheets. 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches leaves them vulnerable. As does scoring and conceding v top 6 at home without winning. Should that pattern continue, lay Mainz if Mainz score first.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Parma v Genoa - 2.78 Genoa
- I continue my policy in not researching these 2.78 the favourite matches. It will enable me to fit in at least one more readable and tradable match. In-play stats for these matches or a look at the Challenge table in-play.
19:30 - Chievo v Milan - 1.61 Milan
- Bottom of the league immediately opposable?
- Only 1 win.
- Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
- No win home or away v the top 18.
- 6 wins and a draw last 8 matches.
- 3-3-3-1 goals scored recently.
- No defeat in 7 away.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away.
- 3/3 draws away v the bottom 4 is a concern. 2 0-0's.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- What is it with Milan and the bottom 4 away? A 1-1 and 2 0-0's? With their recent scoring record though, I am sure they will be eyeing goals today against Chievo who should not have a chance. Do note the relative high % of 0-0's at halftime both sides. I would though expect Milan on recent form to oblige.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Alaves v Eibar - 2.72 Eibar
- As per previous messages, a focus on more readable matches. 2.72 suggests an unreadable match form-wise.
15:15 - Atl Madrid v Leganes - 1.51 Atl Madrid
Atl Madrid (2nd)
- After 2 defeats, back on track with 3 consecutive wins to nil.
- Playing Juventus mid week.
- Scored last 13 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (46%).
- All wins bar a 1-1 at home v 4th and lower.
- Loss, win draw latest.
- 3 losses in 4 away.
- Failed to score last 4 away.
- 6 0-0's halftime (46%).
- 7 losses and a draw away v top 12.
- 16 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Watch out for Champions League distractions. It did not affect Juventus. Will it affect Atl Madrid? They are back to defensive solidity added to scoring and with Leganes failing to score in their last 4 away, Madrid will look to gain 3 points. Watch out for team news though. If struggles, you will see a likely 60th minute sub and a change in fortune. That seems to be the way with Atl Madrid.
17:30 - Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano - 1.15 Barcelona
- Champions League on the 13th March v Lyon.
- 11 wins and 2 draws last 13 matches.
- 3 consecutive wins.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime since 2nd December 2018.
- 5 wins in 6 at home.
- Scored last 13 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 100% wins v 15th and lower.
- 20 goals scored last 1/2 hour of home matches.
- 5 consecutive defeats.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- All defeats v top 4. Note only 1-0 away defeats v 2nd and 3rd.
- Barca might wring the changes today in light of perceived weaker opponents and still expect to win.
- For you contrarians out there, note it is a match prior to Champions League, and Rayo have had 2 1-0 defeats only away v the top 3. Back 0-0 pre match and hope for struggles....BUT only 1 0-0 at halftime for Barca since 2nd December 2018.
- 1.17 suggests a comfortable 3/4 goal haul. Do please check team news to see if Messi and Suarez are up front.
19:45 - Getafe v Huesca - 1.63 Getafe
- 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 4.
- 5 wins in 6 at home.
- No draw in 10 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home (42%).
- Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. 3-1 and 2-1 at home v 17th and lower.
- 3 wins in the last 5 matches. Trying to wriggle out of relegation.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- All defeats away v the top 7, scoring and conceding in 4 defeats, 3 of which were 2-1.
- Huesca are in far better immediate form but all defeats to top 7 suggest they should not win today. They may score but without winning and that looks a ready trading angle. If Huesca score first, look to lay them in expectation of a 2-1 scoreline.