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I have done a DRT review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Telegram only today from Midday. Apologies, I am in Covid related problems again with the laptop. Long-term members know the live chat webinars don't broadcast well on the laptop. I will be working hard to get you some profitable angles in what is a solid day of football. Do watch out for some stats spreadsheets too at DRT Facebook.

ENGLISH FA CUP

  • Just listing the matches so we know kick offs, favourite's odds and where Premier League sides are playing lower league sides. drtinplaystats.com will be very useful for these matches.

12:00 - Boreham Wood v Millwall - 1.40 Millwall


12:00 - Everton v Rotherham - 1.40 Everton


12:00 - Norwich v Coventry - 1.80 Norwich


12:00 - Nottingham Forest v Cardiff - 2.5 Forest


12:15 - Chorley v Derby - 1.22 Derby


15:00 - Blackburn v Doncaster - 1.67 Blackburn


15:00 - Blackpool v West Brom - 1.83 West Brom


15:00 - Bristol Rovers v Sheffield Utd - 1.73 Sheffield Utd


15:00 - Burnley v MK Dons - 1.53 Burnley


15:00 - Exeter v Sheffield Wed - 1.95 Sheff Wed


15:00 - Oldham v Bournemouth - 1.50 Bournemouth


15:00 - Stevenage v Swansea - 1.53 Swansea


15:00 - Stoke v Leicester - 1.80 Leicester


15:00 - Wycombe v Preston - 2.00 Preston


17:30 - Arsenal v Newcastle - 1.50 Arsenal


18:00 - Brentford v Middlesbrough - 2.10 Brentford


18:00 - Huddersfield v Plymouth - 1.83 Huddersfield


20:00 - Man Utd v Watford - 1.33 Man Utd


20:00 - Southampton v Shrewsbury - 1.33 Southampton


SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Dundee Utd v St Johnstone - 2.30 St Johnstone

Dundee United - 6th

  • All home defeats have come v the top 5.
  • 1-1 and 0-0 in head to heads this season.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

St Johnstone - 9th

  • Not beaten a top 7 side away.
  • No win in 9 and in 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • Conceded 13 goals in total last 15 minutes of each half away.

Conclusions

  • Seasonal form suggests best case scenario for St J. is another draw v Dundee United. Lay St J if they score first. They have conceded last 11 away and scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Dundee United score mostly 2nd half at home.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hamilton - 1.57 Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock - 8th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Draw at home.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • 5 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.
  • 2-1 win and 1-0 loss in head to heads this season.

Hamilton - 10th

  • Draw and win last 2 matches - clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 8/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 2-1 loss, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure why Kilmarnock are such short odds. Hamilton have 2 clean sheets, and bar their 2-1 loss away to Killie, the other bottom 4 results were 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and they have kept 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • In-play stats will tell us if the market has this right or whether Hamilton's recent defensive strengths are just fleeting.

15:00 - Livingston v Ross County - 1.57 Livingston

Livingston - 5th

  • 1-0 and and 1-1 v bottom side Ross this season.
  • Poor at home, only 3 wins v 6th, 9th and 12th.
  • 5 consecutive wins, 4 coming away from home. Can this momentum change home fortunes?
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.

Ross County (bottom)

  • Wnded a seasonal habit of 1-0 wins with a 0-2 win away at Hibs latest. Bucked the market and the form book.
  • 0-2 and 1-1 last 2 matches.
  • 3/4 wins came away.
  • The win v Hibs was the first time they scored 2 goals in a win, and the first away win v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • A match where 2 sides are on the cusp of a good season defining run. 5 wins for Livvy is the more impressive. Ross though scored 2 goals in a win to nil and away for the first time v the top 8 - they play 5th.
  • Livvy's last 4 wins came away. If that momentum shows any signs of turning up at home, they may have too much for Ross County unless...that 0-2 win v Hibs away last match was no fluke.

15:00 - St Mirren v Motherwell - 2.37 St MIrren


SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Sevilla v Real Sociedad - 2.25 Sevilla

Sevilla - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 came v Real Madrid.
  • Loss, Draw, Win recently at home.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 2 home defeats came v 2nd and 12th and were 0-1.

Real Sociedad - 3rd

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches came last match away v Atletico Bilbao.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal in 9 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • If Sevilla only lose 0-1 at home, then lay Real Sociedad if they score first but cover the 0-1.
  • Sevilla only scored 2 goals v Villareal at home latest as one goal was an early penalty. They do tend towards 1-0 wins, 1-1 draws and 0-1 losses. 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches. So if Sociedad score 2, they win....but Sociedad have not scored that 2nd goal in 9 matches now.
  • This is likely to be another tight home win, score draw worst case.

15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - 1.55 Atletico Madrid

Atl Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss came v Real Madrid.
  • 11 wins and a loss last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No loss in 8 home matches.
  • Scored first in 7/8 matches at home.
  • 6 clean sheets at home.

Athletic Bilbao - 9th

  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 12.
  • 11/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bilbao's away form does not suggest they will get the best of 1st in the league. 11 wins in 12 for Atl Madrid. Unlikely we will see a trade given Atl Madrid tend to score first.

17:30 - Granada v Barcelona - 1.55 Barcelona

Granada - 7th

  • 2 losses in 3 came away.
  • 2 consecutive home wins scoring 2 goals.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 3 at home.
  • Not met the top 5 at home but lost in 3 away matches.
  • 5 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Barcelona - 3rd

  • Very impressive v Bilbao, coming from 1-0 down to lead 1-3. Slipped up with an eventual 2-3 win.
  • You see what happens when you play Messi, Ronald McDonald? He scored 2 goals.
  • That's 3 consecutive away wins in this revival for Barca.
  • Their last 6 away matches have seen at least a goal before halftime.

Conclusions

  • A complacent Barcelona may get punished today. Granada have beaten 7th, 9th, and 11th to nil, albeit their record v the top 5 away is 3/3 defeats.
  • 3 of Barca's 4 away wins have seen 3 goals. They dominated Bilbao last match and came from behind. The in-play stats spoke very well so those of you with www.drtinplaystats.com, keep an eye out on Barca's reaction should they concede first.
  • Barca have had a goal before halftime last 6 away matches. Enough to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

20:00 - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.50 Real Madrid

Osasuna - 19th

  • No win in 10.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw at home.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side.
  • 2 1-3 losses at home v top 6.
  • 6 goals conceded at home last 15 mins of matches.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 12 matches.
  • 4-1 loss away v 17th and 1-1 draw away v 18th.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid are better measured on recent form than their poor away form v 17th and 18th. I expect draw worst case for Real Madrid today (and remember Osasuna have 3 consecutive score draws). Osasuna at home have 2 1-3 defeats v the top 6 so that is the template really for Real Madrid today

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Freiburg v Koln - 2.00 Freiburg

Freiburg - 9th

  • 2 draws and 4 consecutive wins.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.
  • All wins have come v 11th and lower.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Koln - 15th

  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Draw away recently.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Can't beat the top 13 at home but are unbeaten v the top 14 away.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • Freiburg are in excellent form and that cannot be ignored. Scoring 2+ goals. This will test a Koln defence who tend to concede 1 goal only away.
  • Koln have failed to score last 3 matches so recent form must be with the home side Freiburg today.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Werder Bremen - 1.44 Leverkusen

Leverkusen - 3rd

  • Great season so far.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats spoilt an unblemished season.
  • Only 1 home defeat v Bayern Munich.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Not played the bottom 5 at home.

Werder Bremen - 14th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Won their last away match 0-1 but that was in the midst of 5 defeats.
  • All wins v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Werder wins come v fellow strugglers. It's a clear pattern unlikely to be broken against Leverkusen who will be keen to end their 2-1 losing streak. Bayern the only team to beat them at home, and Werder are not  a patch on Bayern. Leverkusen have yet to play the bottom 5 at home but we can infer from their performances at home v teams above the bottom 5 that they'll cope today.

14:30 - Mainz v Frankfurt - 1.95 Frankfurt

Mainz - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 defeats and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No home win.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • 3 of the 5 home defeats were 0-1.
  • All 6 goals scored at home first half.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Frankfurt - 8th

  • 2 of 4 wins this season came last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet. Failed to score only once.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • 3/3 1-1 draws v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A side with just one win must be automatically opposable. I am not discounting the 1-1 draw as Frank loves 1-1 v 14th and lower but really Mainz should not get a look in here. It has taken a form side this season to beat Frank.

14:30 - Schalke v Hoffenheim - 1.91 Hoffenheim

  • Schalke are so bad that even a side as Wobbly as Hoffenheim is an odds on favourite.
  • Hoff have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches and conceded in their last 14 matches overall.
  • They play a Schalke with 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Bottom of the league v 13th here today. Hoff are unbeaten away v teams below them in the league albeit scoring and conceding.
  • Schalke are yet to win.
  • Angles? Both teams to score with the Hoff not losing is what the seasonal form says.

14:30 - Union Berlin v Wolfsburg - 2.62 Wolfsburg


17:30 - Leipzig v Dortmund - 2.30 Leipzig

  • This year's top 4 clash so I won't look indepth into this match as it is hard to split these 2.
  • Only 1 loss for Leipzig this season. Draws have occurred v the big guns Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, for instance.
  • Leipzig are undefeated in 7 at home.
  • Leipzig are yet to meet the top 8 at home so are yet to be tested at all.
  • Only 3 wins in 8 for Dortmund, who until last match had scored and conceded in 7 matches.
  • Dortmund have scored in their last 12 matches and last 6 away.
  • As I have said before, strong 2nd half goal scorers and we have made that stat pay! 11/12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Angles. Top 4 clash so caution. Seasonal form with Leipzig but not met top 7 at home so that solid run needs a context. Dortmund score, mostly 2nd half. Can we rely on that again today?

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Benevento v Atalanta - 1.55 Atalanta

  • A cursory look given newly promoted sides like Benevento can surprise (see Spezia latest with a red card and all!!).
  • Only 2 defeats in 9 for newly promoted Benevento. They are a tough nut to crack at the moment, having only conceded 0-1-0-1-1-0-0-2-1 goals. The 2 they conceded v league leaders. They play 6th today.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches too.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss at home for Benevento.
  • The fact remains for 10th placed Benevento that they haven't beaten a side higher than them in the league home or away.
  • They do score and concede at home though.
  • Atalanta are one of those sides picking up after poor results within their European Club competition obligations. 4 consecutive home wins but only 2 consecutive away score draws.
  • 10/14 goals scored by Atalanta away came 1st half. 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Angles? It may not be the easy task the market suggests if Atalanta cannot improve away as they have improved at home. There is always a chance with this Atalanta side that they will simply pile in the goals and that may compound Benevento's inability to beat a side above them in the league, despite usually getting a goal.

17:00 - Genoa v Bologna - 2.50 Bologna

Genoa - 19th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws at home last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • Only played 1 of 5th-16th at home.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bologna - 12th

  • 5 consecutive draws, 4 score draws.
  • 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/8 away matches.
  • Bologna are unbeaten  home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 clean sheet plays only 2 clean sheets. Bologna slightly favoured by me here given they are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower, albeit 3 away draws.
  • Genoa like scoring and conceding so look for that pattern, and note that they may score first here today given Bologna's away record.

19:45 - AC Milan v Torino - 1.40 AC Milan

AC Milan - 1st

  • Chance of an immediate comeback from the 1-3 loss to Juventus.
  • That was the only loss.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2-2 v 18th and 19th.
  • 6 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Torino - 17th

  • Only 2 wins but a mini revival with 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • 1-1 draw v Napoli latest away catches the eye.
  • Scored last 9 and last 7 away.
  • 3/3 defeats away v the top 4.
  • 9 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
  • 13/15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A 1-1 would be best case for Torino today who are scoring and if scoring first, we'd expect the usual AC Milan equaliser.
  • As ever, if Ibrahimovic returns for AC Milan, Torino had better hire a double decker bus and park that infront of goal and stick Gemma Collins in goal as well.
  • Strong 2nd half conceding pattern for Torino so they may keep it tight first half but eventually capitulate.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

15:30 - RKC Waalwijk v Den Haag - 1.80 RKC Waalwijk

RKC Waalwijk - 14th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2 wins and 3 losses last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 7 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 match played v teams below them in the league, a 3-2 win at home v 16th.
  • 7/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 5 goals scored at home came last 15 minutes.

ADO Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 losses, 3 draws, 2 losses last 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away 1-1 draws.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No win in 10 and in 4 away.
  • Conceded last 14 and last 7 away.
  • 15/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins plays only 1 win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets plays no clean sheets.
  • Both sides are unbeaten v bottom 5 sides.
  • No strong angles here for me. Possible areas to note? RKC have scored 7/8 goals at home 2nd half and scored 5 goals last 15 mins at home. ADO have conceded in their last 14 matches so are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.

17:45 - Emmen v Twente - 1.95 Twente

Emmen - 18th

  • No win.
  • 2 draws and a loss last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 goals at least conceded in the 3 matches v the top 10 at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 10.
  • 1-1 draw head to head.

Twente - 7th

  • Last 3 defeats came at home.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored last 6 away, scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Conceded last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have beaten 15th, 16th and 17th away.
  • 5/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No win for Emmen. I cannot see the first win here. Twente's last 3 losses came at home and they have beaten 15th, 16th and 17th away from home. Twente do concede and have done last 9 matches but shouldn't lose.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Heracles v Vitesse - 2.00 Vitesse

Heracles - 12th

  • Only 4 wins, 2 consecutive wins came away.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost 3-0 to Vitesse earlier this season.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Vitesse - 4th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower home and away.
  • Away though, scored 1 goal max v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • Vitesse have a 100% win record v 12th and lower but have not scored that 2nd goal away v the top 14. They beat Heracles 3-0 earlier this season. Will the head to head overcome their inability to score that 2nd goal away?

19:00 - Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar - 1.67 AZ Alkmaar

Zwolle - 11th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 3 wins though.
  • 3 draws and a win last 4 at home.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 3.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AZ - 5th

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 7 wins, a loss and a draw last 9 matches.
  • Unbeaten away.
  • Scored every match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 11/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Zwolle cannot seem to turn a scored goal into a win and draw a lot. This may open the match up to AZ with 7 wins in 9 matches, scoring in all matches but having a 1-1 v Zwolle last time these 2 met.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring if Zwolle are to score.

20:00 - Utrecht v Groningen - 1.91 Utrecht

Utrecht - 10th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 matches and last 7 at home.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss came v 1st.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Groningen - 6th

  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 matches away.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • v 9th and lower, only 1 loss.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht concede so will need to score 2 goals to win today. They have conceded last 7 at home. Groningen have lost only 1 match v 9th and lower. This may be a battler for Utrecht today.