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Ahhh...the Curse of the Champions League. It certainly struck Man Utd when the Special(ish) One was in charge. What of Ole? Please remember to factor this in when trading matches involving Champions League contenders. There is a marked decline in performance for many teams in league matches prior to Champions League (Roma in particular) and Europa League (check out Leipzig' when they were in the Europa League!).

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Fulham v Man Utd - 1.68 Man Utd

Fulham

  • 2nd bottom. Relatively new manager.
  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% defeats v top 6 home and away.scored in all home matches v top 8.

Man Utd

  • 7 wins and a draw in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets under Ole.
  • United have led 0-1 last 2 away.
  • Have conceded in 3/3 wins v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Ole deliberate away tactic - clean sheets? 3 in a row now away. If Fulham do score (and they have v top 8) they are very layable.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v West Ham United - 2.14 Palace

  • London Derby.

Crystal Palace (14th)

  • Only 2 wins in 7.
  • 2-0 last home match v Fulham - another London Derby.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 1 home loss v 11th and lower.
  • 5/6 clean sheets v 11th and lower.
  • 10 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

West Ham (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 came v Arsenal at home.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats to nil.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 6 wins, a draw and a loss in the 8 matches v 14th and lower, scoring 3-3-2-4-0-3-2-1 goals.

Conclusions

  • If West Ham can re-capture that 2+ goals scoring v 14th and lower, then Palace may be in trouble. But this Palace has 5/6 clean sheets v 11th and lower.
  • Where do you lean in this defence v attack?

15:00 - Huddersfield v Arsenal - 1.66 Arsenal

Huddersfield (20th)

  • 11 losses and a draw in 12 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home win v 19th.
  • Failed to score at home v top 9.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away. 5 1-1's away at halftime (42%).
  • 5/5 wins home and away v the bottom 4. 4/5 matches saw both teams score.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal should win today but may concede.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If Huddersfield score, it is likely to come first half. Remember Arsenal have conceded in their last 12 away matches.

15:00 - Liverpool v Bournemouth - 1.23 Liverpool

Liverpool (1st)

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 10 wins and a 1-1 at home v 5th and lower.

Bournemouth (10th)

  • 7 consecutive away wins.
  • Set Chelsea and West Ham alight at home last 2 home matches with 2 easy wins.
  • No draw in 12 away.
  • All defeats away v top 7.
  • Opponents have scored in 10/12 away.

Conclusions

  • What is with Bournemouth? Emphatic wins v Chelsea and West Ham at home but 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • I would lay any 1-1 in this match. Liverpool cannot afford a 3rd consecutive 1-1.
  • Will both teams score in another Liverpool home match?

15:00 - Southampton v Cardiff City - 1.79 Southampton

Southampton (16th)

  • 3 draws and 2 wins last 5 matches.
  • Only losses under new manager came v West Ham and Man City at home.
  • Both teams scored in 8/9 matches under new manager.

Cardiff (18th)

  • Only 6 wins, 5 coming at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played 3 of the bottom 5, only 1 0-0 v Huddersfield.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • On form, Cardiff are unlikely to score a 2nd goal if scoring a first. Lay them if they score first, particularly given the Saints scoring and conceding pattern under new manager.
  • Good recent unbeaten form for Saints has me favouring them.

15:00 - Watford v Everton - 2.36 Watford

Watford (8th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 came v Tottenham and Chelsea, 2-1 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches though - 4 draws.
  • Everton are 9th, 5 losses and a win for Watford at home v the top 10.
  • 69% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Everton (9th)

  • No draw in 10 sees 7 defeats and 3 wins.
  • Recent away wins v Burnley and Huddersfield. Move Watford to Yorkshire and Everton might have a shout.
  • No draw in 10 and in 6 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime (50%) away.
  • Not beaten a side above them in the league.
  • Conceded 2 goals away v 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th.
  • 71% of goals conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is not so sure. Everton are in the kind of form which normally sees managerial exits, and I had such high hopes for them at the start of the season.
  • 2-2 last time these 2 met. Everton conceding 2 v 5th-10th away and meeting 8th today, but this is a Watford scoring 2 goals only once of late.
  • Both sides are strugglers v the top 8. This makes this a tough match to evaluate. What I would note is the near 70% of scoring for both of these sides 2nd half.

17:30 - Brighton v Burnley - 2.1 Brighton

Brighton (13th)

  • Only one win in 10 matches.
  • 1-1-1-0-0 goals scored recently at home albeit mostly v top 10 sides.
  • Only played one of the bottom 6 at home, 2-2 v Fulham.
  • All home defeats so far have come v the top 4.

Burnley (17th)

  • 3 wins and 3 draws. As my close show biz pal Eminem would say 'would the real slim-Burnley please stand up'. This has been a very unreadable side compared to the defensively strong Burnley of last season but is this run of 6 unbeaten a sign that the real Burnley are standing up?
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (54%).
  • Not beaten a side above them in the league away.failed to score in 7 of those matches.
  • 10 goals conceded last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Not a match I am too keen on. The Premier League is getting ever more difficult to get those trading angles in. Brighton trouble scoring, yes, but v top 10 mostly at home recently. Burnley unbeaten in 6 matches but yet to beat a side above them in the league away. And failed to score in 7 of those matches.
  • I will leave this to the in-play stats.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Hoffenheim - 1.65 Dortmund

  • This match could easily fall into the 'too keystone cop to predict' category.
  • Both teams have scored in all head to heads since 2015. That's a start, particularly with the mighty Hoff this season.

Dortmund

  • Only 1 loss v Dusseldorf. A Champions League match with Spurs up and coming. Did put out a changed side mid week in the German Cup.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9.
  • Obviously unaffected by the Champions League as they are top of the German Bundesliga.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v the top 10.
  • 70% over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Hoffenheim (8th)

  • Only 1 loss since 20th October came v Bayern but 7 draws in their last 9 matches. Sole win v Freiburg away.
  • Hoff have scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches all season.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score anyone? And trust the Hoff too to cock it up if leading! See what happened last match!
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Watch for potential Dortmund team changes with the Champions League up coming. Team changes can knock a team dynamic off kilter.

14:30 - Leipzig v Frankfurt - 1.78 Leipzig

  • No Europa League concerns this time for Leipzig should see them revert to their usual form. A team hugely affected by the Europa League.

Leipzig (4th)

  • 4 of 5 defeats came away.
  • Only home loss v Dortmund.
  • That ended a run of 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (20%).
  • Not played 3rd-6th at home.

Frankfurt (5th)

  • Scored and conceded in 5/6. 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 2 consecutive away Desmonds.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (20%).
  • Lost away to 1st and 2nd 3-1 not played 3rd-7th away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 v top 8 teams.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig are strong at home and the majority of their defeats came prior to the Europa League. No worries this time. Both sides have gaps in form, not playing 3rd-6th home and away. That is problematic in reading the match.
  • If we can assume Leipzig return to more consistent form, then lay Frankfurt if Frankfurt score first given their both teams to score record of late. Remember Frankfurt have failed to score only twice ALL season.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Hertha Berlin - 1.63 Mgladbach

  • You know the drill with Mgladbach at home? Tend not to score first half. Tend to score 2+ goals 2nd half. No traditional research here bar a quick look at Hertha.
  • Hertha scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches. 2-2 v 1st, 2-2 v 6th and 3-1 v 7th away for Hertha this season. Hertha beat Mgladbach 4-2 earlier this season.
  • Faith in Mgbadbach again today at home? If so then expect 0-0 halftime, 2 goals at least from Mgladbach 2nd half and a possibility of 1 goal max conceded unless....those 2-2's for Hertha v 1st and 6th is indicative of positive Hertha scoring performance?

14:30 - Hannover v Nurnberg - 2.15 Hannover

Hannover (18th)

  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 18 matches and last 9 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 wins at home came v 6th and 16th. 3-1 at home v 16th.
  • Play 17th today.

Nurnberg (17th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • No win in 14 and in 9 away.
  • Conceded in their last 14 matches and last 9 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • 2-2 v 15th away, 2-0 win at home v Hannover earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Bottom 2 means these 2 sides will eye this as a potential win. Nurnberg have the 2-0 win in an earlier encounter. Nurnberg have been scoring against better sides of late, although we have profited in opposing them. For me, Lay Hannover if Hannover scores first given that consistent Nurnberg ability to equalise.

14:30 - Freiburg v Wolfsburg - 2.5 Wolfsburg


17:30 - Bayern v Schalke - 1.2 Bayern

  • 19th February for Bayern in the Champions League. 20th February for Schalke in the Champions League so this match should be unaffected by the Curse.

Bayern (2nd)

  • Only 4 losses all season. Lost their last match v Bayer Leverkusen.
  • 2 draws and 3 consecutive wins at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Only home loss v 2nd.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. score draws at home v 13th, 14th, 15th.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.

Schalke (12th)

  • 4 of the last 5 defeats came at home.
  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (50%).
  • Not beaten a top 5 side. 1-0-1-0-0 goals scored v top 5.
  • 2-0-3-2 goals conceded away v top 6.
  • 73% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form Bayern should be eyeing a positive result against a Schalke conceding 2+ goals away v top 6 sides.
  • Note the 50% 0-0's at halftime away for Schalke but do expect goals 2nd half. Schalke have conceded in their last 11 matches.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Fiorentina v Napoli - 1.99 Napoli

Fiorentina (9th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches came v Parma and Juventus 9 draws in those matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 1st and 12th.
  • Lost 1-0 to Napoli earlier this season.
  • 2/3rd of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli (2nd)

  • Only 3 losses all came away from home.
  • 1-0-0 scored last 3 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 away.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 8th. wins v 5th, 7th, 10th, 13th saw both teams score.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina are drawing 9 of their last 14 matches which suggests we lay them if they score first. Both teams scored in wins for Napoli v 5th, 7th, 10th, 13th away and they play 9th today.
  • Napoli have failed to score in 2 away. That should end today.

19:30 - Parma v Inter Milan - 1.72 Inter

Parma (12th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came away.
  • Only 1 win in 7 at home.
  • 2-3-3 goals conceded recently.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (45%).
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 7 conceding 2 goals at least.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Inter (3rd)

  • Dire stuff v Bologna, failing to score in 2019. Can they be trusted?
  • 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0 recently away from home.
  • Lost 1-0 away to 10th and 11th.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Inter manager may be one bad result away from the sack. Inter have failed to score in their last 3 matches, and meet a Parma conceding 11/13 at home 2nd half.
  • Back 0-0 pre match with this current Inter scoring problem.
  • I cannot trust Inter so will lay them if they score first. On paper they meet a side they should get back to winning ways against (2-3-3 goals conceded of late).

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Getafe v Celta Vigo - 1.97 Getafe

Getafe (5th)

  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home, only beaten by Barcelona.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower home and away but 7 draws and 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in all aways v 16th and lower (yes playing at home).
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celtic Vigo (16th)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 11th and 19th away.

Conclusions

  • Celta do look likely to score. They have failed only 3 times. They do concede too away from home.
  • I would favour Getafe here, albeit on their away form v 16th and lower.

15:15 - Atl Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.5 Atl Madrid

  • A match to savour and not to research. In-play stats only.

17:30 - Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano - 1.86 Espanyol

Espanyol (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 home matches.
  • 3/4 losses at home came v top 6.
  • Loss at home v 17th.
  • v bottom 3, 2-2 away, 3-1 home, 2-2 away, 0-2 win away.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Rayo Vallecano (18th)

  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 wins away were all 0-1 v 7th, 14th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • v the strugglers, Espanyol are good. Enough to focus our minds on the home side not losing?

19:45 - Girona v Huesca - 1.99 Girona

Girona (17th)

  • 5 losses and 4 draws last 9 matches.
  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower. wins at home v 16th and 18th, conceding in those wins.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Huesca (20th)

  • Only 3 wins, one came last match.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets but did fail to score in 3 of their last 4 matches - the only clean sheets all season.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away.
  • Failed to score away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Favour Girona on seasonal form in the battle of the strugglers. Huesca have failed to score away v 13th and lower.
  • Lay Huesca if Huesca scores first. They may not score a 2nd goal.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Heracles v Ajax - 1.25 Ajax

Heracles (8th)

  • 8 losses and 2 wins in the last 10 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 1st, 3rd and 10th. All other wins!

Ajax (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses all season.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 7 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 14 matches and last 7 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% wins away v 5th and lower.
  • 1-1 earlier this season v Heracles.

Conclusions

  • Is it significant that Heracles start losing without scoring at home to the top 3? Enough to default to Ajax today?
  • This is pre-Champions League for Ajax and they are away from home but they play a Heracles with 8 losses in their last 10 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle - 2.12 Heerenveen

Heerenveen (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 and last 9 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All home defeats came v the top 8.

PEC Zwolle (10th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 2 0-2 wins in their last 3 away matches.
  • No draw in 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3/3 wins to nil away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Recent form is with PEC Zwolle. Away form v 15th and lower is with PEC Zwolle.
  • But all home defeats  for Heerenveen came v top 8 sides so are they also in with a chance?
  • Inconclusive.

19:45 - VVV v Willem II - 2.36 VVV


19:45 - Feyenoord v De Graafschap - 1.15 Feyenoord

Feyenoord (3rd)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches was a 6-2 v Ajax. Back to their worst last match 90th minute Excelsior 2-1 win.
  • 2 away losses and a home win since the Winter Break.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home.
  • All wins bar 1 at home.

De Graafschap (17th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • Failed to score last 5 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 7 away.
  • 16 goals conceded away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Feyenoord have been poor away since the Winter Break but no problems at home. All wins bar a single loss.
  • De Graaf have failed to score in their last 5 away matches so a big surprise should they lead in this match.
  • Watch too for late concessions from De Graaf if they happen to be competitive coming to the last 30 minutes of the match.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - PSG v Bordeaux - 1.27 PSG

PSG (1st)

  • Play Man Utd mid week.
  • Only loss this season came last match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 11 consecutive wins at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home. 7 clean sheets.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.

Bordeaux (12th)

  • 3 1-0 losses in 4 away.
  • 81% of away matches 1-0 or 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 6/7 away v the top 10.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Bordeaux will struggle to even score v the top 10 away. 2+ goals are expected of PSG and highly likely to lead at halftime.
  • That is....if the Champions League does not see team changes which change the flow of the PSG team.

19:00 - Amiens v Caen - 2.14 Amiens

Amiens (19th)

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • 3 home wins v 8th, 10th, and 16th.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Caen (17th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 12th and lower.
  • Not played bottom 3 away  1-0 win v Amiens last time they met.

Conclusions

  • Can strugglers be trusted?A very slight nod towards Caen on account of their good form v 12th and lower. Amiens hint too at problems scoring.
  • Other than that, don't get too carried away with 19th v 17th in an already tough to read league.

19:00 - Strasbourg v Angers - 2.08 Strasbourg

Strasbourg (6th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • Scored first in 9/11 at home.

Angers (13th)

  • 5 of 6 wins this season were 1-0.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away this season.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Angers may pull off a 1-0 win if they score first but I think that is a tough ask v a team failing to score in only 3 matches. Faith in the fact Angers have not beaten a top 15 side away this season.