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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 8, 2017

So far today, the phone has not rung, and no invitations to meet up before I depart so at this moment I am trading the tennis throughout the day (with the odd Scandinavian football match - tennis research takes priority though). See you on Twitter @drtclub normally 11:30 am onwards.

Sorana Cirstea v Garbiñe Muguruza - 1.29 Muguruza

  • 66th v 6th.
  • Straight sets Muguruza win in 2017 Australia Open.
  • Cirstea is through because of Sands' misfortune.
  • The Strycova win 6-1 6-0 v Garbine at Eastbourne has me scratching my head. Where did that come from and what was the cause?
  • Cirstea should not be winning this from what I saw of her at Eastbourne, provided Garbine has rebooted since Eastbourne.

Grigor Dimitrov v Dudi Sela - 1.11 Dimitrov

  • Obvious win for Grigor v Baggy. Sela delighted to have taken John Isner out.
  • On that basis, 1.11 is far too short for Grigor.
  • 4 consecutive head to head wins for Grigor though.
  • Sela took advantage of tie break king Isner.
  • Semi finals for Dimi at Queens where he lost to Lopez. He should eventually win. Why lay him at 1.11? For me it is too short off the bat.
  • Sela is a Challenger player and should be outclassed but if he can only do what he did v Isner we will have some occasions where Dimi's odds will rise.

Gael Monfils v Adrian Mannarino - 1.25 Monfils

  • 17th v 51st.
  • These 2 met in Wimbledon 2015 and saw a 3 setter with the first set a tie breaker.
  • Mannarino is lucky to be here. Lopez would have beaten him first round but retired. Sugita gave him the 5 set battle you'd expect of a 1.83 pre match favourite.
  • Monfils should be winning here. A final at Eastbourne, and yet to drop a set here. Mannarino is living on borrowed time after dodging the Lopez bullet.

Dominic Thiem v Jared Donaldson - 1.17 Thiem

  • 9th v 78th.
  • Thiem won in 2 sets in Madrid this year.
  • Tough to quantify Donaldson as he had a retirement first round and a 4 setter v 38th.
  • Thiem lost the first set v Simon but then cruised through. That Turkey mishap I think is long forgotten.
  • I expect Thiem to win and would love him to get into this losing the first set habit.

David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych - 1.21 Berdych

  • 32nd v 13th.
  • 7-7 head to heads. Berdych won the 2 in 2016 at about 1.7 odds.
  • Ferrer is here thanks to a Darcis retirement. I think this is a step too far for Ferrer.
  • He may be a thorn in the side but not win.
  • Ferrer should not be winning 3-0 if he goes 1-0 or 2-0 up.

Polona Hercog v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.14 Svet

  • 178th v 9th.
  • Hercog has been through qualifying to get here. Highest ranked opponent was 63rd.
  • Tie breakers and 3 setters feature in that run so Hercog will not be winning 2-0 today if winning the first set.
  • 3rd, 11th and 27th the recent victors over Svetlana who should have too much class.

Agnieszka Radwanska v Timea Bacsinszky - 1.63 Timea

  • 8th v 22nd.
  • 2-0 Timea in 2015 and 2016 head to heads -the last a 3 setter.
  • 2 tie breakers already for Aggy and a 3 setter last match gave us some good trading profit.
  • No top 10 opponent yet for Timea.
  • This does have a real feel of a 3 setter to me. I would certainly be happier laying Aggy if she wins first set.

Milos Raonic v Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.12 Milos

  • 6th v 19th and rather like Nishikori v Agut yesterday , this should be tighter than the odds suggest.
  • For me, 1.12 is too short to back Milos v a top 20 player and he is a lay for me in the hope we get an Agut v Nishikori type match.
  • Albert won in the Davis Cup in 2016 so has that to work with.
  • 3 tie breakers already for Milos this Wimbledon.2 for Albert. Both have had 2 7-5 sets and this all adds up to good service games.
  • If Milos follows the pattern of the Youzhny game (lose 1st set, tie break 2nd set) we will see those odds rise.

Alison Riske v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.52 Coco

  • 39th v 23rd.
  • Riske has won the last 3 head to heads, albeit Coco retired in one of those.
  • Riske's beating of Mladenovic is a solid bit of form for me and suggests Coco is layable if Coco wins the first set.
  • 103rd and 81st so far beaten by Coco this Wimbledon. At Eastbourne she did beat Johanna Konta.
  • I do think this match has the feel of a lay the first set winner about it. Ready preference for a Coco first set win as her odds will be shorter to lay.

Ernests Gulbis v Djokovic - 1.09 Djokovic

  • 169th v 2nd.
  • Novak tends to win head to heads but dropped a set last 2 set to heads.
  • Del Potro seemed to carry a hip injury, undisclosed beforehand. This will be the first test for Novak.
  • I will lay Novak at 1.1 here today. If Gulbis plays to yesterday's level, he will test Novak.

Anett Kontaveit v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.84

  • 73rd v 11th.
  • You gotta love a bit of Wozza!
  • Anett won a 2016 head to head in Nottingham on grass in 3 sets but this seems to be a more robust Wozza this year.
  • Both finalists in their respective grass court tournaments pre Wimbledon, it is no wonder the market cannot split these 2.
  • I foresee a 3 setter, rather like Heather's match yesterday, and the angle of laying the first set winner. We know with Wozza that she will battle if losing 1-0 so preference for me for Anett to win the first set so I can back Wozza at better odds.

Mischa Zverev v Roger Federer - 1.05 Roger

  • 35th v 4th.
  • These 2 met twice in 2017 and Roger the Dodger won - he is 4-0 in head to heads.
  • Last time on grass saw a 1st set tie breaker.
  • Tie breaker first set last match for Roger before foot on the gas and an easy 3-0.
  • Zverev took 5 sets v Kukushkin and a great trading angle if you followed the match. We layed him at 1.05 2-0 up.
  • A hope we see a competitive Zverev here today and at least the hint of a first set loss via a tie breaker. Normally as you know I lay at 1.06 as a matter of course.

Sebastian Ofner v Alexander Zverev - 1.05 Alex

  • 277th v 21st.
  • No head to heads.
  • I made a great trading profit as Ofner went 2-0 up v Sock, only for Sock to win the next 2 sets as his odds suggested he would. But an easy 6-2 last set win for Ofner saw him earn this meeting.
  • With Sock ranked 15, that was some performance.
  • But is he of the calibre of recent victors over Alexander? - Federer; Muller (on grass superb); and Verdasco. I think not.
  • This should be an Alex win but at 1.06 again I must lay Alex and hope for some more Ofner fireworks (we don't know if Sock carried a niggle yesterday or if this was a true-to-form Ofner win?)

Angelique Kerber v Shelby Rogers - 1.22 Kerber

  • 2nd v 48th.
  • Kerber won in 2017 in Miami.
  • Kerber had a poor clay court season which started with a retirement in Madrid.
  • 7-5 7-5 v 93rd in the world hardly has the women of Wimbledon running for cover. Very routine.
  • Shelby beat 28th Safarova in 3 sets. She lost the first set on a tie breaker.
  • I think this will be more competitive than the market suggests and would lay Kerber at 1.23. Laying at these odds though does pin our hopes on Kerber losing, or looking like losing, the first set.
  • If you want lower odds, wait and lay Kerber if Kerber wins the first set.

Magdalena Rybarikova v Lesia Tsurenko - 1.44 Rybarikova

  • 384th v 42nd.
  • Rarely will you see such a high rank and short odds. The suggestion is Rybar has been injured or out for a period of time.
  • 3 set win over number 3 in the world has obviously impressed the market makers!
  • Semis in Nottingham and a winner in Ilkley, Mag is obviously comfortable on grass.
  • 2 3 setters so far for Lesia does suggest laying Lesia if Lesia is a first set winner.

Petra Martic v Zarina Diyas - 1.77 Martic

  • 369th v 187th.
  • A reason I have saved this til last. A no play for me given the rankings.

FOOTBALL

14:30 - Rosenborg v Sandefjord - 1.27 Rosenborg

  • 0-3 Rosenborg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 12th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Rosenborg

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3-0-3-3 scored last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 3-3-3-3 scored home and away v teams 11th to 14th.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Tend to score first at home and unbeaten at halftime at home.

Sandefjord

  • Only 1 win in 7.
  • 3 losses and a draw away last 4 matches.
  • 3-5 goals conceded v top 2 this season.
  • No away 0-0.

Conclusions

  • The form points to 3 goals as possible from Rosenborg and that is a ready angle. Back 3-0, 3-1, any other home score if 0-0 for a while or back Rosenborg if Sandefjord score first.
  • Rosenborg should score first and negate any real trading opportunity today.

15:00 - Hammarby v Orebro - 1.84 Hammarby

  • Both teams tend to score in head to heads with the home side not losing.
  • This is 9th v 10th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Hammarby

  • Only 3 defeats all came away.
  • A run of both teams scoring for 6 matches ended last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home albeit 4 draws.
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded both halves at home.
  • 10 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Orebro

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal away in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten away only v bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • This could be a 2nd half goals match with Hammarby scoring most 2nd half and Orebro conceding most 2nd half.
  • I would not be worried therefore with a halftime 0-0.
  • I do expect Hammarby not to lose today and that is my angle here.

15:00 - Sirius v AFC Utd - 1.5 Sirius

  • 1-0 AFC last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 16th in the Swedish Allsvenkan.

Sirius

  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, the last 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Tend to score 2 goals v bottom 4.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

AFC

  • No win yet.
  • Conceded 2 or 3 goals v top 6.

Conclusions

  • 2-4 goals are expected to be scored by Sirius today in what should be a routine win. So enter this match with that expectation.

15:00 - FC Inter v JJK - 1.45 FC

  • 1-2 Inter last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 12th (and bottom) of the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

FC Inter

  • No win in 4.
  • No win in 6 at home. 3 consecutive home draws now.
  • Have a good record away to bottom 2, winning both matches.
  • Not won to nil at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 5/7 at home.

JJK

  • Only 1 win.
  • No away win.
  • Scored and conceded v 3rd, 4th and 8th away.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.

Conclusions

  • We may very well see both teams score but JJK not win.
  • Inter should have 2 goals in them with sights lowered today despite having a very poor home record, away they have beaten the bottom 2.
  • Expect an Inter win. React if JJK are leading.

15:00 - KuPS v PS Kemi - 1.59 KuPS

  • 1-4 KuPS in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

KuPS

  • Struggles at home tend to come v top 5 teams so an expectation today.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 6th and lower.
  • No win in 6.
  • 2 goals conceded in each of the last 3 at home.
  • Conceded in all at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.

PS Kemi

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No away draw.
  • Tough to read away. Wins v 5th and 6th were comprehensive but lost away to 9th and 10th.
  • No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals as I cannot readily dismiss PS Kemi given their 7 goals in 2 matches v 5th and 6th away, and KuPS's conceding of 2 goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • Leave alone for me.

17:00 - Hacken v Malmo - 2.58 Malmo

  • 2-4 Malmo in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan and a very non committal betting market.

Hacken

  • Only 3 defeats albeit 2 came within the last 3 matches.
  • Not yet beaten a top 6 side at home.
  • 1-2 and 2-2 v top 3 at home.

Malmo

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten away.

Conclusions

  • I will back 2-1 and 1-2 here in the correct score market as trading vehicles, and trade out at 1-1 (hopefully) as the 2-1 and 1-2 odds will drop.
  • I can see both teams scoring today and Hacken do tend to score v top 3 at home.

17:00 - Aalesunds v Molde - 2.54 Aalesunds

  • 0-1 Aalesunds last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 4th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Aalesunds

  • Only 3 losses in 13 matches were 1-0 losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • No halftime draw at home.
  • Have lost to top 7 at home, albeit 2 were only 0-1.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Molde

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 losses away v top 3 teams.

Conclusions

  • Aalesunds tend to lose to top 7, Molde away to top 3. Molde play 5th, Aalesunds play 4th.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Apart from that, the market has bailed out, like me, in backing one side over another!