Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2105869727240063233 is the link for today's webinar. I can only hope it matches last weekend's webinars, particularly Sunday's. Please register to attend. 14:30.
It is pre-Europa and pre-Champions League weekend. Watch out for some Keystone Cops moments from the big guns. Liverpool to creek away? Napoli surely not another 0-0 at home? Bayern surely not another 1/10 on draw (2 at home at these odds)? Find out later....

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Bournemouth v Liverpool - 1.7 Liverpool

  • 0-4 and 3-0 Liverpool in the last 2 head to heads.

Bournemouth (7th)

  • 4 defeats and a win last 5 matches.
  • Both teams scored in those matches. 4 of those scorelines were 2-1.
  • Not played the top 4 at home. lost to all of top 5.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches v top 15.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Liverpool (2nd)

  • It's constant must wins for Liverpool as the only real challenger to Man City.
  • Liverpool with all wins bar 3 draws seem unaffected pre-Champions League but have had some toughies - 0-1 v Huddersfield springs to mind and remember that they are away from home today.
  • Failed to score only against Man City.
  • Draws away v 4th and 5th and play 7th today.
  • Scored and conceded away v top 9.
  • 9 goals scored away in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool's odds are creeping up but are not breaching odds-against.
  • Pre-Champions League may engender struggle and a tighter match. Strictly on form, we may see both teams score today with Bournemouth not winning.
  • 2-1/1-2 appeals as a trading outcome.

15:00 kick-offs

Cardiff v Southampton - 2.68 Southampton

  • No in-depth research. New manager for Saints. Did lose 3-1 to Tottenham under new manager.
  • One thing I did note under Hughes was the increase in Southampton scoring. They have scored in the last 5, 2-2-1 goals in the last 3.
  • Cardiff have won 3 of the last 4 at home against teams of a similar profile to Saints i.e. Fulham, Brighton and Wolves. Both teams scored in those matches.
  • Both teams scored in Saints last 5 matches without winning.
  • I could see both teams score today but the new manager and his tactics are a complete mystery. We may see instant improvement. We may not.

Burnley v Brighton - 2.82 Brighton

  • You can tell that it's a tough coupon in the EPL with another big odds favourite, at 2.82.
  • 6 defeats in 8 for Burnley. Note their wins came v Bournemouth and newly promoted Cardiff.
  • Burnley kept Liverpool to 0-0 at halftime, scored first 2nd half but could not execute a 1-0. 1-3 it ended.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 for Brighton came v Everton and Cardiff away from home.
  • They scored and conceded last 5 matches. Beat Huddersfield and Palace latest. Huddersfield were down to 10 men.
  • Brighton like the strugglers. 1-2, 2-2, 2-2 v 17th and lower.
  • I would slightly favour Brighton today on form. I acknowledge that usually 2.82 the favourite matches are tough to read and trade. In-play stats. A bias for me towards the away team and their 2 goals v 17th and lower (albeit one was v 10 men).

West Ham v C Palace - 2.36 West Ham

  • A London derby and another toughie to read (2.36 the favourite).
  • 3 losses in 11 matches for West Ham.2 1-0 losses v Brighton and Tottenham. A 0-4 loss v Man City. That is good form really on the face of it.
  • 2 consecutive 3 goal wins v Newcastle and Cardiff.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime for West Ham -one did come last match.
  • West Ham have conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • All West Ham defeats have come v the top 12. They scored 3+ goals v 14th and lower in 3/4 matches.
  • Only 3 wins for Palace v Fulham, Huddersfield and Burnley.
  • 4 defeats in 5 away for Palace.
  • All defeats bar 1 for Palace v 12th and higher.
  • Wins have come v 17th and lower.
  • For me, the form points to a West Ham side with 3+ goals in them v strugglers.
  • I note it is a derby and form could be thrown out of the window. But West Ham have the goals and may simply outscore Palace.

Arsenal v Huddersfield - 1.3 Arsenal

  • Emery has transformed this Arsenal into a top 5 beating side!

Arsenal (5th)

  • Only lose first 2 matches of the season.
  • 4 score draws in the last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • This is pre-Europa League.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Not played 14th and lower at home.
  • 13 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not led at halftime at home.

Huddersfield (17th)

  • Only 2 wins came v newly promoted. Unlucky to lose to Brighton after scoring first. Result of a red card.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side. Scored and conceded in all away matches v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with Arsenal not losing. Huddersfield tend to concede 2+ goals v the top sides and Arsenal are more than capable.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Pre-Europa League for Arsenal but they should remain unaffected. Do note team news though just in case Dick Emery shakes it up against apparently weaker opponents.

Man Utd v Fulham - 1.37 Man Utd

  • If ever there was a side made for the Curse of the Champions League, it is a Mourinho-led side.
  • No win in 4 for United, the last pre-Champions League result a 0-0 v Palace.
  • At home, the fact remains United have only 1 loss v 3rd. They have not played the bottom 5 at home though.
  • United do have 2 goals in them at least.
  • United's only home clean sheet was v Palace.
  • Fulham's only wins came at home v fellow bottom 3 sides.
  • 2+ goals conceded away v top 10.
  • Note, Fulham have a new manager here.  United are pre-Champions League. Layable if leading? Fulham may surprise with new tactics at United's most vulnerable.
  • Do remember United seem solid at home, regardless of pre-Champions League, failing to score 2 goals only once.

17:30 - Chelsea v Man City - 1.94 Man City

  • High profile, pre-Europa League and pre-Champions League.
  • Chelsea have not beaten the top 3 yet, 1-1 and 3-1 away loss.
  • City kept clean sheets away v the top 5. 0-0, 0-1 win and 0-2 win.
  • I would favour City today even if Chelsea score.

19:45 - Leicester v Tottenham - 2.04 Tottenham

  • Tottenham are unaffected in the pre-Champions League. Leicester have no European club competition concerns.

Leicester (9th)

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • 1-0-0-1-0-1 goals conceded.
  • Leicester have failed to score in only one match.
  • All Leicester defeats came v top 8. Both teams scored.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Tottenham (3rd)

  • No draw. Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score only v Man City.
  • Scored in their last 9 away.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v the top 5.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It is an away match pre a match v Barcelona for the Spuds and they are going to be distracted by that. Their form is solid and if reliable, suggests they will not win. Leicester note tend to lose exclusively to the top 8. 2 1-2 defeats at home. Let that enter your mind during this match IF we can rely on the curse of the Champions League not showing up.
  • Lay any late draw and hope the Spuds continue to avoid draws.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Atl Madrid v Alaves - 1.4 Atl Madrid

  • Champions League upcoming for Atl Madrid.

Atl Madrid ( 3rd)

  • Only 1 loss but only 6 wins. 5 of those wins came at home.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goal matches given the sheer number of 1-1 draws (6).
  • Not played 2nd to 9th at home so we have another dangerous-to-dismiss gap in form.
  • 7 goals scored 2nd half post the 60 minute mark.

Alaves (4th)

  • 3 away defeats in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Wins away tend to come v 13th and lower.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away v top 16.

Conclusions

  • Pre Champions League for Atl Madrid and they have turned a 1-0 lead into a 1-1 pre-Champions League before.
  • No form v 2nd-9th at home for Atl Madrid too leaves us wondering how they really perform v the top 10.
  • With Alaves scoring 2 goals rarely away, it looks obvious to lay them if they score first.
  • Note Atl Madrid have a good 60th+ minute scoring record. It tends to coincide with subs. If they have not scored by then, check out 60th+ minute.

15:15 - Valencia v Sevilla - 2.34 Valencia

  • Champions League v Man Utd for Valencia may distract.
  • Europa League for Sevilla.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss for Valencia pre-Champions League this season.
  • Valencia have ended their draw sequences with Loss, Win, Win, Loss. Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches result.
  • 1-1 draws for Valencia at home v 1st and 3rd and they play 2nd today.
  • They have not scored that 2nd goal at home v top 16, 4 1-1 draws, a 0-1 and a 0-0.
  • Only 3 losses for Sevilla who have no win in 3 away. 2 consecutive away draws.
  • Sevilla have a good record v 12th and lower (Valencia are 14th). 5 wins and a draw.
  • Valencia have only lost 3 matches so their position is false in some respects and due to the draws. So do we hold firm with Sevilla's solid win record v 12th and lower and favour them today?
  • Reading this is tough given European competition commitments. Slight favour Sevilla today and lay Valencia if Valencia score first IF we hope they cannot score that 2nd goal as usual.

17:30 - Villarreal v Celta Vigo - 1.78 Villareal

  • 4 consecutive Villareal wins in head to heads.

Villareal (17th)

  • Europa League bound mid week.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win pre Europa League.
  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home.6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (13th)

  • No win in 5 away matches - scoring and conceding in each.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Not played bottom 6 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. With Villareal not scoring 2 goals too often at home, lay them if they score first.
  • Other than that, 2 less-than-appealing sides.

19:45 - Espanyol v Barcelona - 1.58 Barcelona

  • Espanyol have a 1-0 and 1-1 last 2 home head to heads in the league. It could be a good night to take on the shorties pre-Champions League.

Espanyol (7th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 5 consecutive home wins ended last home match.
  • Not played bottom 5 at home.
  • All one-goal-in-it matches v the top 6 home and away.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Only 1 win in 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 consecutive matches  - that ended with a clean sheet last match at home.
  • Only 1 win in 4 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • Only played one of the top 9 away, a 1-1 draw.

Conclusions

  • Espanyol could play well at home as they have in the last 2 head to heads at home.
  • Barcelona are scoring and conceding but that did end last match. I would certainly lay Barcelona if they lead 0-1 late on. And that ties in with Espanyol scoring a lot 2nd half at home. Prepare for an uneasy Barca night. Espanyol are keeping it to one goal-in-it v the top teams.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Napoli v Frosinone - 1.18 Napoli

  • A small match v Liverpool mid week for Napoli.

Napoli (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Draw for Napoli pre-Champions League. 0-0 last match.
  • 2 draws in their last 3 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Non defeat in 7 at home.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches v 8th and lower.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Frosinone (19th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches but only 1 win. 4 draws.
  • Only win came away v SPAL 0-3.
  • 4/4 defeats away v top 7.

Conclusions

  • A disappointing 0-0 the last time Napoli were pre-Champions League saw them utterly dominant but clearly they played Maradona up front (in his current state). 0-0 is a concern today but really Napoli should replicate Frosinone's 3-0 defeat to Inter Milan.
  • Napoli have failed to score only twice so it is rare to see them goal-less.
  • I note Napoli's strong 2nd half scoring, something I relied on in their 0-0 v Chievo. It was not forth coming. I would employ the same tactic though if 0-0 at halftime i.e. back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 as they would take a marginal win pre-Champions League.

17:00 - Cagliari v Roma - 1.88 Roma

  • A match for the in-play stats I am afraid. This Roma side are terrible pre-Champions League. 2 consecutive failure to score defeats, despite absolute dominance in the in-play stats - shots on target/off target and corners.
  • It must be a watching brief. Roma have an away trip v Plzen in the Champions League. Will Roma fail to score yet again? Being beaten by a team such as Udinese, and Spal at home, is an advert for the Curse of the Champions League.

19:30 - Lazio v Sampdoria - 1.47 Lazio

  • Europa League for Lazio up-coming.

Lazio (5th)

  • A touch of the Valencia's with 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • We successfully traded the last 1-1 as Chievo took the lead.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • All home defeats v the top 3.
  • All defeats this season v the top 7.
  • Not scored 2 goals in home matches v the top 12. not played 6th-11th at home.

Sampdoria (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away without winning.
  • 3-2 loss away v 4th and 4-1 loss away v 7th.

Conclusions

  • Not sure if the market is accurate here. I have a theory. With Lazio not scoring 2 goals in home matches v the top 12, and with Samp scoring 2 goals v 4th, dare we lay Lazio if Lazio score first?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 kick-offs

Bayern Munich v Nurnberg - 1.1 Bayern Munich

  • We layed Bayern at 1.06 odds v Dusseldorf pre Champions League as Dusseldorf drew 3-3. Bayern, at similar odds, also drew 1-1 v Freiburg at home.
  • So no research here. Suffice to say that Bayern pre-Champions League are layable, particularly if they score first.

Freiburg v RB Leipzig - 1.87 Leipzig

  • Like Bayern Munich, Leipzig fall flat on their behinds pre-Europa League. They have failed to score in each of their last 2 pre-Europa League matches. Leipzig are 3rd in the league. They have it in them to win (only 2 defeats all season - and Freiburg only 3 wins all season).
  • No research for me in light of the last 2 pre-Europa League failures to score. Watching brief today via the in-play stats (although the in-play stats in those 2 mentioned matches were strong for Leipzig).

Leverkusen v Augsburg - 1.68 Leverkusen

  • 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Europa League for Leverkusen this week.

Leverkusen (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • All defeats v the top 8 home and away.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Augsburg (14th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches this season. It did not happen last match.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Only away wins v the current bottom 2.
  • 80% of goals scored and 83% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 teams don't tend to keep clean sheets. Augsburg did tend to score and concede but that didn't happen last match.
  • Leverkusen should be favoured based on the fact they only lose this season to the current top 8. Lay Augsburg if Augsburg score first.

Schalke v Dortmund - 2.22 Dortmund

  • Dortmund were higher odds last time and still won.
  • Schalke have a Champions League match next week as does Dortmund.

Schalke (12th)

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches sees a vastly improved Schalke.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Schalke have 3 0-2 defeats v top 9 and have yet to beat the top 9.

Dortmund (1st)

  • All wins bar 3 draws.
  • 8 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League for both sides may muddle the match.
  • Schalke are in good form relative to early season but have 3 0-2 defeats v the top 9 at home and not beaten the top 9 at home.
  • Dortmund really should be expected to win today. We do have to tread carefully though pre-Champions League.

Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim - 2.32 Hoffenheim

  • Hoff are away to Man City in the Champions League on the 12th December.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Win, Draw pre Champions League for the Hoff.
  • They have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches in all competitions.

Wolfsburg (8th)

  • 2 consecutive wins - one v a pre-Europa League Leipzig.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • Only 1 home win v the top 7 came v Leipzig.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim (6th)

  • As entertaining as usual. Snatching a score draw or defeat from the jaws of victory.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away, and scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 3-3-4-3 goals scored away in the last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in every match bar 1.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3 of 4 defeats came v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • You never know what to expect with the Hoff but they do tend to lose to the top 5 which suggests that they can match any goals scored by Wolfsburg.
  • Hoff have scored 3+ goals in each of their last 4 away. If this pattern continues, they should not lose, quite obviously.

17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.62 Frankfurt

  • The market suggests a tough to call match.
  • 1-2 Frankfurt and 0-3 Hertha in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Europa League for Frankfurt this coming week.

Hertha Berlin (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2-3-4-3-0 conceded in recent matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw last 3 at home.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-0-2-3 goals scored at home v the top 6.

Frankfurt (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came last match.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 away.
  • Scored in every match, a stat we used last few matches.
  • 2 losses away came v the top 2.
  • Lost to 8th and 9th at home.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No wonder the market is inconclusive. Hertha are scoring 4-0-2-3 goals v the top 6 at home. That impresses. Frankfurt are likely to score.
  • I think both teams could score today. I would lay Hertha even if they lead 2-0. Despite solid scoring v top 4 at home, they are conceding 2+ goals of late.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:00 kick-offs

Rennes v Dijon - 1.61 Rennes

  • 2-2 and 2-1 Dijon last 2 head to heads.

Rennes (13th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches but not last match.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
  • Not played bottom 5 at home.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Dijon (16th)

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 13 matches came last match v struggling Guingamp.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • 0-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-0 loss away v 11th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Rennes to score? They have failed to score only once. They tend to score first so may negate any trade. With only 1 win in 13 v Guingamp, Dijon's form is poor. Even v 10 men recently they let a 0-2 lead turn into 2-2. I would be with Rennes today.

Guingamp v Amiens - 2.1 Guingamp

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Amiens last 2 head to heads.

Guingamp (20th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 3 draws in 4 at home.
  • No win in 7 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Amiens (19th)

  • 6 defeats in 7 matches.
  • 3 of 4 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v 15th  0-1. 1-0 loss v 17th.

Conclusions

  • Both sides will be looking for the win today against a fellow struggle.
  • Both teams concede 6+ goals in the last 15 minutes of matches.
  • Guingamp, for me, are in the better form. 3 draws in 4 at home may see them through?
  • Lay Amiens if Amiens score first based on Guingamp scoring and conceding in all bar 1 at home.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

18:45 - Zwolle v Ajax - 1.22 Ajax

  • Ajax tends to win in head to heads.

Zwolle (14th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Won last match.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 2-1-2-2 Zwolle scored last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 and 3-0 losses v top 3.
  • 2 goals at least conceded in 8/9 matches v the top 11.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Ajax (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 8 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime, 2 came 1st 2 matches of the season.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower home and away.
  • 9 clean sheets in 11 matches v the above teams.

Conclusions

  • Look at the Ajax clean sheets v 6th and lower. A firm foundation to 3 points. Zwolle have, though, been scoring 2 goals of late at home but note that did not occur v the top 6 at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Ajax should score 2+ goals.

19:45 - ADO Den Haag v De Graafschap - 1.57 ADO

ADO (13th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home (17%).
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 8.
  • 1-0 and 1-1 v the bottom 3 at home.

De Graafschap (17th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came 1st match of the season.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • Beat 11th and 12th at home but away, 5 defeats and a 1-1.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 15 minutes.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins and 1.57 favourites. Ouch! I suppose we have the 1-0 and 1-1 ADO results v the bottom 3 to cling to. De Graafschap are 17th. De Graafschap have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and that may clinch it for the home side.
  • Still, I am reticent about trusting a team with 4 wins.