A few more household names today in the Euros. Fewer household names in English League One and Two. I thought I would dip my toe into these leagues. Regulars know though that these leagues are not a main focus of mine. I do hope you find and angle or two. If around, as ever, I'll be at DRT Facebook. No promises though.
EURO 2020 QUALIFIERS
14:00 - Kosovo v Czech Republic - 2.52 Czech
- Group A sees England dominate.
- Both teams have scored in Kosovo's 3 qualifiers with 2 draws and a win.
- 2 wins and a loss v England for the Czechs.
- 120th v 43rd. Due deference to Kosovo that with such a gap in the rankings, the Czechs are only 2.52 favourite. Maybe down to a lack of longevity in Kosovo's life as a ranked FIFA team.
17:00 - England v Bulgaria - 1.09 England
- Both teams are scoring in Bulgaria qualifiers without them winning. A nice angle in if Uncle Bulgaria scores first.
- England have scored 10 goals and conceded just 1 in their 2 matches. Another 3+ goals win on the cards as well as a 20 minute first half strategy contender!
17:00 - Iceland v Moldova - 1.29 Iceland
- Group H sees Iceland currently matching France and Turkey with 3 wins and a loss.
- Moldova, with 1 win and 3 defeats are the side in the group that contenders must take 3 points from.
- Iceland have only lost to France. 2 clean sheet wins and a win v Turkey suggests they have the measure of a Moldova only beating Andorra and conceding 4-4-2 goals so far.
17:00 - Lithuania v Ukraine - 1.34 Ukraine
- 3 defeats and a draw v Luxembourg saw Lithuania score in their last 3 matches. Rather like the England match, an angle in if Lithuania score first as the expectation is that they will concede.
- 3 clean sheets in a draw and 3 wins for Ukraine does indeed suggest that Lithuania will be limited to one goal maximum if they score.
19:45 - France v Albania - 1.12 France
- Group H sees France boss it but with only 3 wins and a loss, they are tied with Turkey and Iceland. This becomes a must win against a team they are expected to beat easily.
- 4 goals scored in wins for France suggests a target for us.A 2-0 loss v Turkey was a turkey for the Frogs.
- France have scored upwards of 3 goals in the first half so if 0-0 after 20 minutes, the halftime score market will come a-beckoning.
- Albania have beaten Moldova and Andorra (my old Sunday league side could beat Moldova and Andorra, and that is without 4 players turning up because they over-slept). You get the idea!
19:45 - Serbia v Portugal - 2.26 Portugal
- Group B sees Portugal wayward with 2 matches played and 2 draws putting them 4th. But no panic Mr. Mainwaring, the main contenders have played 1 or 2 matches more.
- Ukraine are dominating the group with 2 wins and a draw.
- 35th v 6th in the rankings. 0-0 and 1-1 draw with Serbia already for Portugal. Serbia scored the opener via a penalty. It may have been different, of course, had that penalty not been awarded.
- I don't think Portugal will lose here. Do watch to see if Ronaldo plays. Even at his age, Portugal are a different side with and without him.
19:45 - Turkey v Andorra - 1.04 Turkey
- With Group H so tight, this will be a turkey shoot for Turkey. Goal difference may yet play a part with 3 sides equal at the top of the group.
- 3/3 clean sheet wins for the Turks ended v Iceland.
- 4/4 defeats for Andorra without scoring.
- For those who like speculating on the correct score market, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 might get us a return. Andorra have flattened out at 4 goals conceded.
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE
- I don't tend to research these lower leagues. They are markedly unreliable but I have time on my hands so will begin with the football form labs look, and then my own via soccerstats.com
12:00 - MK Dons v AFC Wimbledon - 2.02 MK Dons
- +2.5 goals: Bottom-half promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. AFC Wimbledon have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against promoted teams.
- 2 wins only this season came at home for MK Dons. They have conceded last 4 matches and failed to score only once.
- Wimbledon are yet to win.3 losses away all saw Wimbledon score. A 0-0 last match may be a sequence to end this match.
- 2 wins in 3 at home may stand the Dons in good stead ? Will AFC score again away without winning? Something to consider if they score first here.
12:30 - Doncaster v Rotherham - 2.52 Rotherham
- Match outcome: Doncaster have won 8/12 home matches while middle-third relegated teams have conceded first in 50% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Middle-third relegated teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
- Doncaster have conceded in all 4 matches without losing.2 consecutive home wins. Rotherham have enjoyed their travels with 2 consecutive away wins.0-1 and 1-2.
- The market cannot split these 2 in what is, let's remember, a local derby to add some spice to it (if my geography is right!).
15:00 kick off
Wycombe v Lincoln - 2.72 both sides
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 Wycombe W home matches. Top-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Wycombe W have won 12/20 home matches.
- Another unfavourable market.
- Wycombe are unbeaten and 3/3 at home, scoring 2-4 goals. They conceded 2-3 goals last 2 home wins. It could be a goal laden affair today? 4 wins this season for Lincoln but the gloss taken away by 2 consecutive away defeats, both 2-1.
- Both teams to score maybe here? Slight favour Wycombe who have shown battling qualities even after conceding 2/3 goals at home?
- No 0-0 at halftime for Lincoln this season.
Portsmouth v Southend - 1.46 Portsmouth
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Portsmouth home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Portsmouth such matches. Southend have scored first in 7/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- 100% defeats for Southend goes some way to explaining Pompey's favouritism. Southend failed to score in 4 matches. That's what happens when the majority of your team is made up of Eastenders cast members.
- 2-3 goals scored at home by Portsmouth augurs well, albeit a 3-3 last home match.
- 3-2-0-3-2 goals in total before halftime in recent Southend matches. If you want a play first half, then these stats are with you.
Tranmere v Gillingham - 2.48 Tranmere
- 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 54% of home matches against bottom-half teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Gillingham away matches against promoted teams.
- Tranmere's sole win needs a context. It was v bottom side Bolton. Only 2 home matches, a 2-3 loss and a 5-0 win for Tranmere. They have conceded in all bar that Bolton win.
- Gillingham beat Bolton by the exact same scoreline, 5-0, in their solitary win of the season. Like Tranmere, that was their sole clean sheet.
- 2 similar(ly poor) teams deserving of a 2.48 the favourite quote.
Fleetwood Town v Oxford Utd - 2.26 Fleetwood
- 1st half outcome: Fleetwood have drawn the first half in 7/12 home matches while Oxford have drawn 6/10 away matches against top-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/17 Fleetwood home matches against bottom-half teams.
- Only 1 win for Oxford all season was a 1-0 home win.
- 2-4-3-3 goals conceded last 4 matches is a concern for Oxford.
- 2-1, 1-1, 2-0 at home for Fleetwood will give them some confidence against a team such as Oxford with such a leaky defence.
- Strangely, Oxford have scored in every match so that does suggest any late 0-1 or 0-2 lead may be layable in the expectation of concessions.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime in all matches for these 2 all season.
Coventry v Blackpool - 2.26 Coventry
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/7 Coventry home matches against top-six teams while Blackpool have drawn the first half in 11/16 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 9/13 Blackpool away matches against top-six teams.
- Both sides are unbeaten. 3/3 home wins for Coventry without conceding.1-3, 2-2, 0-0 Blackpool away.
- 0-0 last Blackpool away match. With Coventry so solid defensively, can we lay Blackpool if they score first and hope Coventry restrict them to a single goal and themselves score as they have done in all bar 1 match this season.
Bristol Rovers v Accrington - 2.26 Bristol Rovers
- Asian handicap: Accrington S have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost 6/8 such matches. Bristol Rovers have drawn the first half in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- A draw and 2 home wins for Bristol Rovers.3 2-0 defeats away. So they must be eyeing points collection at home.
- Accrington's only seasonal win came last home match 2 2-0 defeats and a 1-1 away.
- Accrington are yet to keep a clean sheet. Favour the home side based on home form? The market is not hugely confident.
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO
15:00 kick off
Newport County v Port Vale - 2.24 Newport
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Newport home matches against top-half teams and in 7/9 Port Vale away matches against top-six teams. Port Vale have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
- Newport remain unbeaten this season.2 consecutive 1-0 home wins suggests defence is a strong point and a need.That's 5 consecutive clean sheets for Newport.
- 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Newport. Usually when I see this I think' back 0-0 pre match and hope this means a goal shy opening'.
- Portvale have scored and conceded in 6 matches, losing only 1. They 2 wins came at home.
- Do you like Newport's defence enough to suggest they will limit Port Vale ?
Plymouth v Oldham - 1.81 Plymouth
- -2.5 goals: Top-six relegated teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Oldham have drawn the first half in 8/14 away matches. Oldham have lost 8/13 away matches.
- Plymouth's 2 defeats came away.
- 2 wins to nil and a 2-2 draw at home.
- Plymouth failed to score only once.
- Oldham are bottom 3 early season.Only 1 win did come away v Cambridge last match. Oldham have kept only one clean sheet, a 0-0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4/6 matches which really must suggest Plymouth are favoured today even if Oldham score. (Will they really score a 2nd?)
Morecambe v Salford City - 2.54 Salford
- 1st goal: Morecambe have scored first in 5/8 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-half promoted teams have conceded first in 56% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-half promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
- Only 1 win for Morecambe. 2-3 and 3-1 defeats last 2 matches.
- 0-0-2 scored at home. No home win.
- Salford have lost only 1 match and won only 1 match....4 consecutive score draws.
- 87th, 89th and 90th minute were the times of last goals in 3 of Salford's last 4 matches. You might want to note that in a match in which the market cannot split the sides.
- Lay Morecambe if they score first? Failed to score twice at home? Salford consistent score draws.
Leyton Orient v Swindon - 2.32 Swindon
- 1st half outcome: Bottom-half promoted teams have drawn the first half in 50% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15 as have Swindon in 8/10 away matches. Swindon have conceded first in 11/20 away matches.
- Win, draw, loss for Leyton Orient at home. They scored and conceded last 3 matches.
- Swindon are unbeaten away, albeit 2 consecutive score draws.
- There is a recent both teams to score sequence for both sides.
Grimsby v Crewe - 2.58 Crewe
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Grimsby home matches against top-six teams and -1.5 goals in 5/8 Crewe away matches against top-six teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 6/8 Grimsby home matches against top-six teams.
- No draw this season for Crewe sees 4 wins in 5 matches. 1-2, 1-2, 1-0 last 3 away. Crewe failed to score only in those defeats.
- 2-5-3 goals scored by Grimsby last 3 matches 2-2-1 conceded.
- Another match the market cannot choose sides in.
Carlisle v Exeter - 2.6 Exeter
- +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Carlisle home matches and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Carlisle home matches against top-six teams. Exeter have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- Exeter are top early season.4 clean sheets in 6 matches.Failed to score only in a 0-0. 0-1, 0-0, 2-3 away.
- Only 2 wins Carlisle. 2-1, 0-2, 2-2 at home. They have conceded 2 goals in their last 2 home matches.
- The market has not sided with the best form side early season. 2.6 the favourite is very non committal.
Colchester v Walsall - 1.98 Colchester
- 1st goal: Colchester have scored first in 13/20 home matches while bottom-six relegated teams have lost 58% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six relegated teams have conceded first in 57% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
- Walsall won only the first match of the season. They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 2 consecutive away defeats.
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Colchester. Can they pull it off again v a side suddenly not scoring?
- 1-1, 1-2, 1-0 at home for Colchester. They will have to pull off a 1-0 win given they are yet to score 2 goals this season at home.
Macclesfield v Crawley Town - 2.64 Crawley
- Match outcome: Crawley have lost 12/20 away matches and they have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Macclesfield home matches against top-half teams.
- only 2 defeats for the Macc Ladds were 1-0. Only 1 loss in 5 though. 3-0, 0-1, 1-0 at home. Macc seem defensively stout at home.
- 2-1,2-2, 2-3 away for Crawley. Conceding 2 goals at least in all aways with only 1 defeat!
- Will Crawley concede 2 goals v a home side who have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches?
- Another match in which the market cannot decide. It seems a regular occurrence today.
Cambridge Utd v Forest Green - 2.34 Cambridge
- 1st half outcome: Forest Green have won the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams and they have scored first in 7/11 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 9/15 Cambridge U home matches.
- 2 draws, 2 wins, 2 losses for Cambridge this season. The draws were 0-0. Loss, Win, Draw in the 3 home matches.
- Forest Green's 2 losses came within the last 3 matches.
- They failed to score only in their last match. 1-1, 2-1, 0-1 away for Forest Green saw them score only one goal away. Are Forest Green vulnerable?
Bradford v Northampton - 2.2 Bradford
- 1st goal: Middle-third relegated teams have scored first in 54% of home matches against bottom-half teams since 2014-15 while Northampton have conceded first in 6/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/19 Northampton away matches.
- 2 draws, 2 wins, 2 losses for Bradford this season.No strong pattern.Only 1 clean sheet for Northampton came away in a 0-1 away win followed by a 1-0 away loss.
- As is the case with a lot of these league One and Two matches early season, there is very little for me to get my teeth into.