Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It's fooking freezing! Excuse my french. I am in London now, on the way to Guernsey and was caught out by the weather! I am about to catch a flight and probably won't do a live chat webinar this afternoon. It depends on the jet lag (not from a flight from London to Guernsey, but the Bangkok to London part!!). I will update at 14:00 IF I do a live chat webinar.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Liverpool v Bournemouth - 1.27 Liverpool

  • Match outcome: Liverpool have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Bournemouth have lost 8/9 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have had W/W double results in 13/16 home matches.

Liverpool - 1st

  • 3 losses in 4 matches in all competitions. Wobbly? Well, Atl Madrid did beat them but that's a first leg. Watford did beat them (and I warned they had 2 goals in them!) and Chelsea beat them in the FA Cup but Klopp hates the FA Cup.
  • Sole loss v Watford last match.
  • 14 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 14 at home and 2+ goals last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 11/14 at home.
  • 0-3 win v Bournemouth earlier.

Bournemouth - 18th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches, 2 wins and a 2-2 last 3 at home. Bournemouth far brighter at home.
  • 5 consecutive away losses.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • 3 goals conceded in 3 defeats v the top 3.
  • 7/11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Wobbles at Liverpool? 3 defeats in 4 matches in all competitions or simply a case of a) no panic Champions League first leg b) deer in the headlights on the brink of equalling the unbeaten record in the PL? c) Klopp hates FA Cup. If normal service is resumed, Liverpool should score 2+ goals and beat sides 18th and lower. 3 goals in fact expected of the Pool.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market albeit 29% a bit high for Bournemouth

15:00 - Southampton v Newcastle - 1.7 Southampton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Telstar home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/8 such matches. Jong PSV have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Southampton - 13th

  • Best looked at since the return to from from 1st December 2019.
  • 4 losses and 2 wins last 6 matches is a worry though. Bad habits return.
  • Looking deeper, 2 losses v Wolves and Liverpool not too bad and did score in defeat v Burnley and West Ham (new manager).
  • 2 losses in 3 at home.
  • Scored last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • 3/4 home wins v the bottom 4.

Newcastle - 14th

  • Only 2 wins since 14th December were 1-0.
  • Failed to score last 4.
  • No win in 6 away.

Conclusions

  • 2 sides gone off the boil but Saints are still scoring at home so could score today. Newcastle have failed to score in 4 now so if leading, look layable?

15:00 - Wolves v Brighton - 1.69 Wolves

  • Match outcome: Wolves have won 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Brighton have had L/L double results in 8/11 away matches against top-six teams. Brighton have lost 11/13 away matches against top-six teams.

Wolves - 6th

  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • 6 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • 14% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 16th and lower at home.
  • 2-2 draw last head to head.
  • 15 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Brighton - 15th

  • Only 2 wins since 10th November.
  • 3 score draws last 4 matches so have been competitive.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 11 away.
  • 21% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% defeats away v the top 7.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On current form we should not expect a Brighton win but strugglers are winning in the Championship against the odds (look at Luton). It's that time of the season. Really though, Wolves 6 goals in 2 matches could see them too hot for Brighton today.
  • Stats suggest laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market over a season but both sides have a high % for scoring 2nd half so not today.

15:00 - Sheff Utd v Norwich - 1.72 Sheff Utd

  • 1st half outcome: Sheffield Utd have drawn the first half in 5/5 home matches against bottom-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Sheffield Utd such matches. Norwich have lost 10/14 away matches.

Sheff Utd - 8th

  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches came v Man City (home and away) and Liverpool. These Blades are tough to beat.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Norwich - 20th

  • Only 2 wins since 1st December were 1-0.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Not beaten the top 9 away.

Conclusions

  • On recent form, Sheff Utd only tend to lose narrowly v the top 2!
  • Norwich showed with a narrow loss v Liverpool and 1-0 win over Leicester that they may pull the rabbit out of the hat but for me, are layable if leading (cover the 0-1).
  • Sheff Utd are unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower and scored 2 goals in 2 wins v the bottom 3 at home.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Watford - 2.66 Crystal Palace

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 C Palace home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/15 Watford away matches against middle-third teams. Watford have lost 12/19 away matches.

15:00 - Arsenal v West Ham - 1.6 Arsenal

  • Match outcome: Arsenal have won 17/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while West Ham have lost 8/10 away matches. West Ham have conceded first in 7/10 away matches.
  • A London Derby with 2 new managers. No thanks. A quick look at form under the new managers.
  • Only 1 loss for Arsenal under Arteta came v Chelsea (a London Derby).
  • 2-0-4-3 goals scored in their last 4 matches. Arteta's message getting across?
  • Moyes won his first and last match in charge of West Ham, v Bournemouth and emphatically, 3-1, v Southampton latest.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime under Moyes so far.
  • Arsenal have only 1 loss at home under Arteta, v Chelsea. Win, Draw, Win, Win latest.
  • 4/4 losses away for Moyes, latterly conceding 4-2-3 goals v Leicester, Man City and Liverpool.
  • Angles? Well, new managers but contrasting home form v away form suggests the market is right. Arsenal scoring 2 goals now v a West Ham conceding 2 goals away suggests home advantage.

17:30 - Burnley v Tottenham - 2.6 Tottenham

  • 1st goal: Burnley have conceded first in 8/9 home matches against top-half teams while Spurs have scored first in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Spurs have won 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Eibar v Mallorca - 1.74 Eibar

  • Match outcome: Mallorca have lost 10/12 away matches and they have lost by two or more goals in 6/12 away matches. Eibar have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Eibar - 16th

  • Only 3 wins since 9th November came at home.
  • 3 losses since 14th December came away.
  • 2-1 loss v Mallorca last head to head.

Mallorca - 18th

  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded in those 12.
  • All wins this season came at home.

Conclusions

  • If Mallorca can only win at home, Eibar by default? Only 3 wins since 9th November for Eibar though did come at home.

15:00 - Atletico Madrid v Sevilla - 1.95 Atl Madrid

  • Match outcome: Atl. Madrid have won 14/20 home matches while Sevilla have lost by two or more goals in 10/17 trips to top-six teams. Sevilla have lost the first half in 10/13 away matches against top-six teams.

Atletico Madrid - 5th

  • 3 losses of 4 all season came away.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • Only home loss came v 2nd.
  • Not beaten a top 3 side yet. 1-1 v Sevilla earlier.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sevilla - 3rd

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • 2-3-3 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 18 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Top 4 clash can sometimes mean it's a game of best on the day. I do note, on form, that Atl Madrid struggle to score that 2nd goal v the top 4 and that may be costly if a new-found Sevilla goal bounty (6 in 2!) continues.

17:30 - Barcelona v Sociedad - 1.39 Barcelona

  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 19/20 home matches while Real Sociedad have lost 10/11 away matches against Big Two teams. Real Sociedad have lost by two or more goals in 7/11 away matches against Big Two teams.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • All wins under new manager bar 2 losses v Valencia and Real Madrid (last match).
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 2-4-2-3 goals in total before halftime recently apart from the last match v Real Madrid.

Real Sociedad - 6th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches came at home.
  • Lost away to first and 3rd, scoring but conceding 3 goals in each match.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Conclusions

  • Bar the Real Madrid match, Barcelona under their new manager had started scoring 2+ goals before halftime and I feel this could return today. Sociedad did concede 3 goals away v 1st and 3rd and we'd expect similar today.

20:00 - Getafe v Celta Vigo - 1.87 Getafe

  • Match outcome: Getafe have won 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Celta Vigo have lost by two or more goals in 8/13 trips to top-six teams. Celta Vigo have lost 15/20 away matches against top-six teams.

Getafe - 4th

  • 8 wins and 4 losses last 12 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 at home. Losses at home v Real Madrid and Sevilla.
  • No draw in 12.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 0-1 win v Celta Vigo last head to head.

Celta Vigo - 17th

  • Only 2 wins since 29th November came at home.
  • 3 losses and 3 draws last 6 away.
  • 62% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 17 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With only 1 away win, Celta Vigo look opposable. Getafe are unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • High % of 0-0 at halftime so no surprise to see a 0-0 at halftime. Expect 2nd half goals if that is the case.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig - 1.96 RB Leipzig

  • 1st goal: Wolfsburg have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams while RB Leipzig have won the first half in 11/18 away matches. RB Leipzig have had W/W double results in 7/12 away matches.

Wolfsburg - 7th

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 6 at home.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • Not played top 3 at home.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4.
  • Only 2 wins away v the top 9. Wins away v 4th and 6th away.

Conclusions

  • The Wolf are in good form and did beat Mgladbach at home. They are yet to beat the top 3 at home though - gap in form.
  • Only 3 losses for Leipzig. Good seasonal form enough to rely on?

Schalke 04 v Hoffenheim - 2.36 Schalke

  • 1st goal: Schalke 04 have conceded first in 6/9 home matches against top-half teams while Hoffenheim have scored first in 10/16 away matches. Schalke 04 have lost 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • Arthur C. Clarke's Mysterious World.....how the feck Hoff are 8th in the league!!
  • No win in 6 Schalke No win in 4 Hoff.
  • Schalke have only lost to the top 2 at home.
  • Only 1 loss for the Hoff v the top 7 (Schalke 6th) came v Leipzig. BUT 3 draws there too.
  • 71% and 80% of goals scored home and away respectively came 2nd half.
  • Angles? No indepth research as the Hoff are unreadable. But expect 2nd half goals if a barren first half. Schalke are unbeaten at home outside the top 2 but did lose 2-0 to the Hoff earlier this season....hence 2.36 the favourite!

Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.71 Leverkusen

  • HT/FT: Leverkusen have had W/W double results in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while E. Frankfurt have had L/L double results in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams. E. Frankfurt have lost 10/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Leverkusen - 5th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 home matches.
  • Scored last 8, scored 2+ goals last 3 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • 62% of goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Frankfurt - 12th

  • 2 consecutive defeats after a run of 3 wins and a draw.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 6.
  • 9/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Frank have lost to top 6 away but showed in a recent flurry of form that they have a trick or two v better sides.
  • If Leverkusen can score 2+ goals again as they did last 3 at home, that could be enough today.

Hertha Berlin v Werder Bremen - 2.28 Hertha Berlin

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Hertha Berlin home matches and in 10/12 W. Bremen away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Hertha Berlin home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3 losses and 2 draws at home recently for Hertha and they play a Werder side worse than my old Sunday League side.
  • Only 4 wins all season Werder.
  • Bad news for 2nd bottom Werder. Hertha are unbeaten home and away v the bottom 3. 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not a match to dwell on. 2 very untrustworthy sides. Werder, for example, have failed to score in 4/5 matches!

Freiburg v Union Berlin - 2.42 Freiburg

  • 1st goal: SC Freiburg have scored first in 12/17 home matches while Union Berlin have lost 6/6 away matches against top-half teams. Union Berlin have lost by two or more goals in 3/6 away matches against top-half teams.

17:30 - Mgladbach v Dortmund - 2.18 Dortmund

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 B. M'gladbach home matches and +3.5 goals in 12/17 B. Dortmund away matches. B. Dortmund have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Mgladbach - 4th

  • Only 5 defeats, 4 came away.
  • 8 consecutive home wins ended with a draw last home match.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • 27% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-0 loss v Dortmund earlier this season.
  • Beat 1st and home, lost to 2nd at home, 0-0 v 6th at home.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Dortmund - 3rd

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7.
  • All 4 seasonal defeats came away.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Scored last 13 and last 6 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • 17% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away.
  • 67% over 3.5 goals away.
  • 16 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund's away form v the top 10 is eye-catchingly bad! Note that today. They play a Mgladbach usually winning and scoring 2 goals at home but the Hoff kept them to 1-1 last home match.

ITALIAN SERIA A

  • Italian football has suffered from the Coronavirus so I don't want to research only for said research to be redundant. Betfair has suspended all Italian football markets for the weekend suggesting more postponements.

14:00 - Genoa v Parma - 2.2 Genoa

  • 1st goal: Genoa have conceded first in 10/16 home matches while Parma have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Parma away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:00 - Torino v Udinese - 2.46 Torino

  • Match outcome: Torino FC have won 7/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Udinese have lost 7/11 away matches. Udinese have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.

17:00 - Atalanta v Lazio - 2.18 Atalanta

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Atalanta home matches against top-six teams and in 12/15 Lazio away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 10/13 Atalanta home matches.

19:45 - Spal v Cagliari - 2.72 Cagliari

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 SPAL 1907 home matches and in 8/15 Cagliari away matches. Cagliari have scored first in 9/14 away matches.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Hamilton v Kilmarnock - 2.24 Kilmarnock

  • 1st goal: Hamilton Ac have scored first in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Kilmarnock have lost 8/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Kilmarnock away matches against bottom-six teams.

St Johnstone v Livingston - 2.86 St J

  • 1st goal: St Johnstone have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against top-half teams and they have lost 7/11 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/16 Livingston away matches.

Aberdeen v Hibernian - 2.08 Aberdeen

  • 1st goal: Aberdeen have scored first in 11/18 home matches while Hibernian have lost 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Hibernian have conceded first in 8/11 away matches against top half non-Big One teams.

Hearts v Motherwell - 2.16 Hearts

  • 1st goal: Hearts have conceded first in 9/12 home matches while Motherwell have scored first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Motherwell away matches against bottom-six teams.

Celtic v St Mirren - 1.14 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 8/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have conceded first in 17/20 away matches. St Mirren have drawn the first half in 11/18 away matches.
  • A 2-2 v Livingston for Celtic mid week did little harm to title chances as Rangers lost at similar odds to Celtic's today!
  • Only 2 losses for Celtic all season.
  • Only 6 wins for St Mirren all season.
  • 18 consecutive Celtic matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • They've scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches.
  • 12 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 2-0 and 1-2 wins for Celtic over St Mirren already this season.
  • St MIrren tend not to score v the big 2.
  • 1.14 odds suggests a goal before halftime and 3/4 goals from Celtic but I remind you, 2-0 and 1-2 wins only v St Mirren this season might see Celtic do enough.