2-2 in the Werder match came fleetingly. Did you back 2-2 and get the hell out of there at the 40th minute mark? Did you lay Koln 2-0 down given, as I said, Werder were THE form team in Germany? If so, well done. Did you lay Bordeaux as suggested? 2-2 it ended and Bordeaux led twice. 'Do bear in mind that this is a London derby and strange things can happen in a derby.' That proved prophetic. 1-0 West Ham. Tottenham have shot themselves in the foot. The second half 0-0 was opposable as suggested. Laying 0-0 in the halftime score market came in with Sevilla. Laying any late draw though was not successful even with the help of a Sociedad red card.

'Tis that time of the year. Teams' legs turn to jelly as the pressure tells and they can't deliver. Note that today! Live chat begins 14:30 for the German Bundesliga. See you here at delayreacttrade.com and simultaneously broadcast on Twitter @drtclub.

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12:00 - Amkar v CSKA Moscow - 1.73 CSKA Moscow

• 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 9th v 3rd in the Russian Premier League.
• 4 matches remain this season.
• Title hopes for CSKA are alive but they seem a dream.

Amkar 100% stats

• Only scored 1 goal max at home v top 11 teams.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Amkar other stats

• No win in 7.
• Only lost one home match at halftime.
• Beat Zenit (2nd) 1-0 at home.

CSKA 100% stats

• Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
• 5 clean sheets in 6 away v 11th and lower.

CSKA other stats

• 3 wins and a draw last 4 away.
• Only 1 loss in 14 was v Spartak Moscow last match.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• 8 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

• While Amkar cannot score that 2nd goal they will be vulnerable. Lay them if they score first (yes they beat Zenit 1-0 at home and that is a possibility but remember CSKA will be up for this).
• It might be 0-0 at halftime but I would oppose that 0-0 2nd half. CSKA are in solid unbeaten form bar a derby match v Spartak.

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12:00 - Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas - 1.59 Sporting

• 1-0 Las Palmas last head to head.
• This is 18th v 14th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
• 3 matches remaining this season. If Sporting Gijon lose, they are down.
• Las Palmas are safe.

Sporting Gijon stats

• Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• Conceded in their last 17 home matches.
• No 0-0 at home.
• 3 of 4 home wins came v bottom 4.

Las Palmas stats

• 3 losses and a draw in last 4.
• 9 defeats in their last 10 away.
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• No win in 16 away.
• Conceded in their last 17 away.
• Conceded 2+ goals away in their last 7.
• No 0-0 away.

Conclusions

• Both sides are poor. Both sides have conceded in their last 17 matches so we should not see a 0-0.
• The market is with Gijon to get the points they need and they play an in-motivated Las Palmas side who are dire away from home.
• Tough to be confident in Gijon but the market thinks 'needs must' so I will follow suit and oppose any Las Palmas lead.

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12:30 - Man City v C Palace - 1.28 Man City

• Man City tend to win head to heads.
• This is 4th v 16th in the Premiership.
• 4 matches remain for Man City. 3 matches remain for Palace.
• 3rd spot is the reasonable target for Man City. They have a match in hand over Liverpool and are 3 points behind. MUST WIN therefore and they will be third with a win on goal difference.
• Palace are a full 2 winning games (6 points) clear of the relegation places. It is so nearly over. A win makes it so.

Man City 100% stats

• Undefeated at home v 2nd and lower.
• Scored and conceded in all home matches v 14th and lower.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• Not lost to nil at home.

Man City other stats

• 2 consecutive draws.
• Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
• 3 draws in 4 home matches.
• No defeat in 9 at home.
• 14 home matches either 1-0, 0-1 or 0-0 at halftime.
• 13 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Crystal Palace 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• No draw home or away v top 6.

Crystal Palace other stats

• 2 consecutive defeats without scoring.
• Scored and conceded last 3 away.
• Beat 1st and 3rd away recently.
• 19 of 26 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Big Sam is oh-so-close to clinching another year in the Premiership. His Palace side have not scored in 2 matches and may struggle again today.
• Man City have 3 draws in 4 home matches so a sticky patch but they are undefeated in 9 matches and have 6 wins in 7 at home v 13th and lower.
• If on song, City should score 2 goals and alleviate a possible both teams to score scenario.
• Lay any late 0-0 as Palace are the last of a dying breed without a 0-0 this season.
• Man City dare not not-win today. This is an opportunity to go 3rd and leave Liverpool with the pressure. I would late any late score draw on that basis.

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14:30 - Bayern Munich v SV Darmstadt - 1.1 Bayern

• 0-1 Bayern earlier this season. This is top v bottom.
• Darmstadt must win to continue their unlikely stay in the Bundesliga.

Bayern stats

• Bayern have only 2 losses all season, both away.
• Bayern are undefeated in 15 at home, scoring in every match.
• No 0-0 at halftime at home for Bayern.
• 5-8-3 goals scored at home v bottom 4.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• No 0-0 at home.
• Only conceded 1 goal 2nd half at home.

Darmstadt stats

• Only 1 draw since 16th October 2016.
• 3 consecutive wins continues the unlikely dream of survival.
• No draw in 15 away for Darmstadt.
• Conceded in their last 15 away matches.
• Lost away to all top 15 sides.
• Failed to score away v top 8.
• No away 0-0.
• 27 of 35 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• No doubt Darmstadt are confounding the markets but have not scored v top 8 away in all defeats.
• The market expects 3/4 goals from Bayern at least.
• This looks straightforward but do prepare for a Darmstadt Last Stand! Note if they have kept a clean sheet halftime, Darmstadt are highly likely to concede 2nd half.

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14:30 - Dortmund v Hoffenheim - 1.55 Dortmund

• Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads. 2-2 last head to head.
• This is 4th v 3rd in the German Bundesliga.
• 3 matches remain. Wins required if these 2 are to threaten 2nd place.

Dortmund 100% stats

• No defeat at home.
• 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 v 1st, 2nd, and 5th at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Dortmund other stats

• Led at halftime in 11/15 at home.
• 6 consecutive home wins.
• Only lost once at halftime at home.
• Scored 8 goals first 15 mins and 12 goals last 15 mins at home.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

• Scored and conceded in all away matches v top 10.
• Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

• Only 3 defeats came away.
• Scored and conceded last 7 away.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Scored in their last 17 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• Only 1 win away v top 11.

Conclusions

• Both teams to score again? Hoffenheim have scored in their last 17 matches. Dortmund have scored in all bar 2 at home.
• I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market despite the 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1 v top 5 at home for Dortmund.
• I would lay any late 0-0. Remember the Hoff scored very late last match.
• Hoff have not lost to nil this season so any 1-0 Dortmund should be opposed.

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14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg - 2.66 Frankfurt

• 1-0 Wolfsburg in the last head to head.
• This is 11th v 15th in the German Bundesliga.
• Wolfsburg are on same points as 3rd bottom so 3 points are required.
• 3 matches only left this season. Frankfurt really should be safe from relegation.

Frankfurt stats

• Only 1 win in 12 matches.
• 0-0, 0-0, 2-2, 3-1 last 4 home matches - unbeaten.
• Only 2 defeats at home.
• Failed to score at home v 16th and 17th.
• 9 goals scored at home last 15 minutes.

Wolfsburg stats

• 4 defeats in 5 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• Unbeaten away v 12th, 13th, 14th.

Conclusions

• No thanks! Not for me. There are no strong angles. The market agrees with me.

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14:30 - Ingolstadt v Leverkusen - 2.56 Ingolstadt

• 1-2 Ingolstadt in the last head to head.
• This is 17th v 12th in the German Bundesliga.
• 3 matches remaining and must wins for both teams.
• Ingolstadt are poor at home, with 3 of 4 wins coming v 14th and lower.
• They lost 0-2 v 9th, 11th and 13th at home.
• Leverkusen away have beaten 13th, 14th, 15th and 18th and lost away v 16th.
• This is a relegation six pointer so form may not be followed as needs must! On form, Leverkusen are slightly favoured.

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14:30 - Mgladbach v Augsburg - 1.77 Mgladbach

• 1-0 Augsburg last head to head.
• This is 9th v 13th in the German Bundesliga.
• Augsburg are still in the relegation battle. Mgladbach are safe.

Mgladbach stats

• Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
• 2 losses in 3 matches.
• WLWLWLWL (W=Win, L=Loss) in recent home matches.
• Only 1 loss at home v teams below them in the form.

Augsburg stats

• No draw in 6.
• 2 wins in 3  came at home.
• 5 defeats in 6 away matches.
• Only 2 clean sheets since 4th December.
• Conceded in their last 9 away.
• Conceded 2 or more in their last 4 away matches.
• 3 of 4 wins away came v bottom 4 teams.

Conclusions

• On form I am with Mgladbach today not to lose -that's what the form says but Augsburg need the points. Will that improve Augsburg's performance?
• Augsburg have only 2 clean sheets since 4th December so are likely to concede today.

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15:00 - Mattersburg v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.64 Red Bull

• 2-1, 0-0, 2-1 Mattersburg when Red Bull have visited recently.
• This is 8th v 1st in the Austrian Bundesliga.
• Red Bull are 14 points clear at the top.

Mattersburg 100% stats

• No 0-0.

Mattersburg other stats

• Scored 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• 5 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last match.
• Have lost all matches v the top 3 home and away......bar a 2-1 home win v Red Bull.

Salzburg 100% stats

• Not lost to nil away.

Salzburg other stats

• 13 wins and 2 draws in their last 15 matches.
• 7 wins in 8 aways.
• Scored in their last 15 and last 11 away matches.

Conclusions

• Matterbsurg love the visit of Red Bull who have lost their wings on their last 3 visits.
• I would oppose any 1-0 or 2-0 Matterbsurg lead. Salzburg have not lost to nil this season away.
• Watch this one for some potential shocks. And note the above stat as a trading angle.

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15:00 - Leicester v Watford - 1.63 Leicester

• 2-1 Watford in the last head to head.
• This is 11th v 13th in the Premiership.
• Both sides have 4 matches remaining.
• Even if these 2 teams draw today, Swansea need to win 3 consecutive matches to be on the same points as them.
• 8th place is the best these 2 can get.
• I think realistically they are safe from relegation.
• It is not a match to dwell upon. Just some of the major stats.

Leicester

• Leicester under the Great Bard had tended to score 2 goals at least per match. Now 1-0 win and 1-0 loss (Champions League affected?).
• 4 consecutive Leicester home wins.
• 7 wins and a 2-2 v teams below them in the league at home.
• 13 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Watford

• 3 defeats in 4.
• Conceded Iast 11 away.
• Only 1 away win v teams above them in the league.
• Conceded heavily away either side of halftime.

Conclusions

• Market is emphatically with the Foxes. Both sides are safe, a draw I would suggest confirms this, a win certainly will.
• 'On form' (bearing in mind this is a dead rubber of sorts) this is Leicester's to win if returning to 2 goals a game (as in the last 4 wins at home). Watford cannot really beat teams above them away.
• I would lay 0-0 in the halftime score market after 30 mins if 0-0. Strong conceding Watford either side of halftime away.
• Key question? Will Leicester banish 2 1-0's and return to 2+ goals?

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15:00 - Hull v Sunderland - 1.5 Hull

• 3-0 Sunderland in the last head to head.
• This is 17th v 20th in the Premiership.
• 3 matches remain for Hull. 4 matches remain for Sunderland.
• A win and Hull remain 4th bottom. A Swansea win and a Hull defeat and Hull are bottom 3.
• Sunderland must win all remaining matches and hope Swansea lose all remaining matches.

Hull stats

• 4 consecutive home wins.
• No defeat in 8 at home.
• Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 at home.
• No home 0-0.
• Only 1 home defeat v 7th and lower.
• 2-3-2-4 goals scored at home v 15th and lower.
• Scored and conceded in all homes v 14th and lower.
• Score most goals at home 61st minutes onwards.

Sunderland stats

• Failed to score in 11 of 13 and that is with the new England striker.
• Last 2 defeats were 1-0.
• Last 4 away defeats were either 2-0 or 1-0.
• No draw in 14 away.

Conclusions

• A must win for Hull to remain out of the bottom 3 regardless of what Swansea does.
• On form Hull can score 2 goals. They may have to wait as Sunderland may attempt another unimaginative 0-0 at halftime and 0-1 2nd half, only it tends to go wrong as they cannot score.
• 2-0 looks a goer here. Any Sunderland goal (and note Hull score and conceded at home v 14th and lower) must see us lay Sunderland or back Hull.
• Lay any late 0-0.

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15:00 - Bournemouth v Stoke - 2.24 Bournemouth

• 0-1 Bournemouth the last time these 2 met.
• This is 10th v 12th in the English Premiership.
• This is a dead rubber. These 2 cannot get higher than 8th and realistically are safe (although it will take some crazy permutations for these 2 to be dragged into the relegation battle).

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15:00 - Burnley v West Brom - 2.26 Burnley

• 4-0 West Brom in the last head to head.
• This is 14th v 8th in the Premiership.
• Burnley have 3 matches left to West Brom's 4.
• Burnley are 7 points clear of relegation. A win confirms safety. West Brom are safe.

Burnley stats

• Only 2 wins in 12 matches. Shot in the arm with a 0-2 win v Palace last match.
• Recent losses at home have come v Tottenham and Man Utd. Solid form otherwise at home.
• 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
• No 0-0 at home.
• All wins at home v 7th-13th inclusive.

West Brom stats

• 4 consecutive defeats to nil.3 consecutive 0-1 defeats.
• Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
• Only 2 0-0's at halftime in 16 matches.
• All West Brom wins this season, bar 1, came home and away v teams below them.

Conclusions

• This must present Burnley with a great opportunity. West Brom are otherwise distracted, having trouble scoring and are wholly un-motivated. Burnley albeit only 2 wins in 12 matches, are good at home. Only Tottenham and Man Utd have beaten them recently. I would not expect Burnley to lose. In fact they have all wins at home v 7th-13th inclusive.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and of course any late 0-0.

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15:15 - Atletico Madrid v Eibar - 1.33 Madrid

• Atl Madrid tend to score 2 goals at least in head to heads.
• Their Champions League seems over so a focus on the league.
• This is 3rd v 8th in the Spanish Primera Liga. Sevilla are 4th and breathing down Madrid's neck.
• 3 matches remain this season. 3rd is the best Atl Madrid can hope for.

Atl Madrid stats

• Only 2 losses in 20 matches.
• 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
• No draw at home in 10 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
• 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 v 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th at home. Vulnerable?
• Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
• 17 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Eibar stats

• Failed to score in 3 of their last 4.
• Only 1 0-0 away.
• Not beaten a top 4 team home or away.
• Drew 1-1 away with Real Madrid.
• Conceded 10 goals away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

• Atl Madrid - will they be affected by the Champions League? If not, they tend to score 2 goals against Eibar consistently. I am slightly concerned with poor Madrid home form v 5th-10th at home, not scoring 2 goals.
• I do expect a Madrid win. I will oppose any Eibar lead.
• Lay any late draw.

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16:00 - Paris St-G v SC Bastia - 1.13 PSG

• 0-1 in the league head to head, 7-0 in the cup. The 7-0 is in keeping with the 1.13 odds quote for PSG today.
• This is 2nd v 20th in French Ligue 1.
• 3 matches remain. A win could take Bastia as high as 16th so tight it is at the bottom.
• PSG must win as it is advantage Monaco with 3 points and a game in hand.
• PSG are unbeaten at home.
• They have only conceded one goal at home v 8th and lower.
• Bastia have won 2 of their last 3 matches - a last hurrah?
• They did fail to score in 4 of their last 5 aways.
• Bastia have conceded in their last 16 aways.
• Monaco beat Bastia 5-0 away.

Conclusions

• The market thinks this will NOT be another 1-0 PSG, rather it will lean more towards the cup 7-0.
• Expectation is for a clean sheet for PSG which does open us up towards a correct score play if we want it. 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 appeals to me. 5-0 because that is how many Monaco scored. 7-0 because PSG managed that last time.
• We should also naturally expect a goal before halftime so note that if 0-0 for a while.

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17:00 - Napoli v Cagliari - 1.14 Napoli

• 0-3 and 0-5 Napoli in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 3rd v 12th in the Italian Seria A.
• It really is all to play for, for Napoli. Cagliari's season is pretty much over.

Napoli stats

• Only 1 defeat since 5th November.
• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
• No home 0-0.
• Unbeaten at home outside the top 5.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• 25 of 37 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cagliari stats

• WLWLW (W=win, L=Loss) recently.
• Conceded in their last 17 away matches.
• No away 0-0.
• Only led once at halftime away.
• Lost all bar 2 away v top 17 sides.
• Lost all away v top 6.

Conclusions

• I think it is season over for Cagliari. At any rate, they tend to lose away to top 17 sides and a motivated Napoli should oblige today. Only the one loss for them since Guy Fawkes Night!
• 2 goals at least expected today. 0-0 will be an anomoly so note any late 0-0 and oppose it.
• I would lay Cagliari in the halftime market if they score first and early first half.

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17:30 - Swansea v Everton - 2.66 Everton

• 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 18th v 7th in the Premiership.
• Both sides have 3 matches remaining. This looks a relegation battle between Swansea, Hull, and at a stretch, Crystal Palace.
• Top 4 is there for Everton but is unlikely as it requires 3 wins and the other teams to suddenly all lose.

Swansea stats

• Only 1 win in 8 matches.
• 4 wins, a draw and a loss v Tottenham in recent home matches. Good form.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• 5 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime.
• Not beaten the top 6 at home.
• 22 of 33 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Everton stats

• Only 3 losses in 18 matches were v Tottenham, Liverpool and Chelsea. Swansea do not fit into that category!
• No win in 6 away.
• Only led once at halftime away.
• Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
• 4 clean sheets in 5 away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

• Swansea's home form is good but they have not beaten top 6. Will that stretch to 7th who actually are unbeaten v 15th and lower.
• The question is whether Everton are motivated? Swansea certainly are.
• It is tough to call. Swansea are nowhere near on par with the 3 teams that have beaten Everton in 18 matches. The problem is whether Everton are 'up for it' as they are, on form, the better side.

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17:30 - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.18 Barcelona

• 2 consecutive score draws in head to heads.
• This is 1st v 5th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
• 3 matches remain this season. Barcelona are equal on points with Real Madrid but Real have a game in hand.

Barcelona stats

• 13 wins in 15 matches.
• In 9 of their last 10 matches at home, they scored 3 goals at least. That fits in with a 1.18 odds quote.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• 10 consecutive home wins.
• No defeat in 15 at home.
• Unbeaten home and away v top 9.

Villareal stats

• 5 wins in 6 matches.
• No draw in 13 matches and in 7 away.
• 9 0-0's at halftime away.
• Beat Atl Madrid home and away, 2 1-1 draws and a 2-3 loss v top 2 so competitive.
• Not conceded in both halves.

Conclusions

• There is an argument to lay Barcelona at such short odds against a side who have 1) drawn with them last 2 meetings; 2) scored and conceded in all matches v top 2 with 2 1-1 draws; 3) beaten 3rd home and away. Better lay Barcelona if they score first. Nice low odds.
• The market expects 3/4 goals from a Barcelona side who must win.
• Lay any late draw.
• Villareal have not conceded in both halves in a single match this season so if they keep a clean sheet first half, they are likely to concede 2nd half.

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17:30 - Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig - 2.24 Leipzig

• 2-0 Leipzig the last time these 2 met.
• This is 5th v 2nd in the German Bundesliga.
• This is about preservation of 2nd place for RB today with the Hoff breathing down their necks.
• Hertha Berlin's season is over. They cannot improve their places. I think they are in a Europa League spot so may be motivated to retain that.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Only lost once at halftime at home.
• Not beaten a top 3 side at home, scoring and conceding in a draw and defeat.

Hertha Berlin other stats

• Scored first in 13/15 at home - remember that in light of the above stat.
• Only 1 draw since 27th November 2016.
• 4 wins in 5 at home.

RB 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 6 side away.
• No away 0-0.

RB other stats

• 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
• 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
• Conceded in their last 10 away.
• Failed to score away v 1st, 4th and 6th.
• 17 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• On form this is a toughie for RB Leipzig.
• Lay any late 0-0. Watch out for Hertha scoring first. It is tough to decide whether to lay Hertha if Hertha score first because RB have failed to score in 3 away v top 6 sides.
• Lay any late draw. A rare event in a Hertha match.
• A tough puzzle to solve. Needs must? Then side with the away side.

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19:00 - Lille v Metz - 1.7 Lille

• 3-2 Metz the last time these 2 teams met. Metz won with 2 late penalties so perhaps not reflective of true form.
• This is 11th v 15th in French Ligue 1.
• Metz should be safe from relegation with a win today. The market disagrees.

Lille 100% stats

• No draw at home v 10th and lower.

Lille other stats

• 2 consecutive 3-0 wins.
• Only 1 win in 8 home matches came last match.
• Only 2 wins v top 16 teams at home.

Metz 100% stats

• None.

Metz other stats

• At least one team has scored 2 goals in the last 6 matches.
• Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
• No win in 10 away.
• 2 or more goals conceded away last 6 matches.
• Only 3 away wins came v 8th, 12th and 13th.
• 25 of 37 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Lay any late draw.
• Lille are actually not that hot at home but ultra recently, they have 2 consecutive 3-0 wins. They have only 2 wins v top 16 at home.
• Mets are poor away but, in playing 11th, they have beaten 8th, 12th and 13th.
• I am not a fan of Lille here. I could even consider laying Lille if Lille scored first and going against the market.

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19:00 - Nancy v Monaco - 1.5 Monaco

• 6-0 Monaco in the last league head to head.
• This is 19th v 1st in French Ligue 1.
• We have a Champions League distraction for Monaco too to consider.
• 3 matches remain for Nancy, 4 remain for Monaco so all is not lost if they sacrifice this match for a Champions League Final berth.

Nancy stats

• Nancy can still stay up such is the tightness at the bottom of French Ligue 1.
• Only 1 win in 13 though is not going to cut it.
• 3-0 and 0-0 last 2 at home is more like it. They will be hoping Monaco rest players today.
• Not beaten a top 7 side.
• Lost all matches v top 4 sides and failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.

Monaco stats

• 8 consecutive wins, 4 away.
• No defeat in 16 and in 12 away.
• Scored in their last 28 matches and 14 away.
• Scored and conceded last 3 wins.
• Were brilliant v Toulouse which was a superb trading match.
• Wobbles v lower sides with 1-1 draws away v 17th and 20th.

Conclusions

• This could be a tricky match for Monaco. Watch out for team changes. PSG are highly likely to win and Monaco really need the advantage of 3 points and a game in hand by winning today.
• If we remove the possibility of changes due to the Champions League, then Nancy would provide some resistance today (2 consecutive home clean sheets) but Monaco eventually score (3 second half last match and 28 scored in a row).
• 1-1 has cropped up twice with Monaco and teams 17th and lower away so note that. Will Nancy score? They are logically layable of scoring first.

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19:45 - Granada v Real Madrid - 1.14 Real Madrid

• 5-0 Madrid earlier this season.
• This is 19th v 2nd in the Spanish Primera Liga.
• Granada are relegated. Real Madrid have their game in hand over Barcelona.
• 9 defeats and a 0-0 for Granada in their last 10 matches.
• All defeats for Granada this season v top 3.
• 19 of Granada's 26 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
• Real Madrid have lost only 3 matches.
• They have scored in every match.
• They have scored and conceded in 12 of their last 13 matches.
• Real have scored and conceded in their last 10 away matches.
• All wins home and away v 15th and lower scoring 3+ goals in the away wins.
• 100% over 1.5 goals this season for Real Madrid.
• Granada are down. Nothing to play for. We expect a Real Madrid, unencumbered by the Champions League, to score at least 3 goals today in a win where both teams could actually score. It is a area Liga match where Real keep a clean sheet.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
• Remember 1.14 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum from Real Madrid.

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19:45 - Juventus v Torino - 1.54 Juventus

• The Turin Derby. Tasty affair. Slightly clouded by the Champions League for Juventus so not a match I want to dwell too long on. Head to heads will be important.
• 2-4-4-3 scored by Juventus in recent head to head wins. They tend to beat their Turin neighbours.
• Juve play Monaco in 3 days time.
• 12 points remain this season and Juve have a 9 point gap to Roma. Ergo, win today, title is theirs?
• 100% home wins Juve.
• Torino not beaten a top 11 side away.
• No 0-0 this season Juve.
• 19 of 26 goals scored away by Torino came 2nd half.
• Juventus tend to score first at home.
• No opponent has led at halftime for a Juve home match.
• It could be a glorious week for the Old Lady. 0-2 leaders v Monaco, and the title in the bag with a win here today.
• On form, Juventus have 2 goals at least in them today in a home win. Do factor in the Champions League and derby status. Will we see team changes? Tough call for the manager.
• Juventus tend to score first. Torino scored first last head to head. YES PLEASE today!!

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20:30 - Maritimo v Porto - 1.52 Porto

• Maritimo are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads. Porto have won the last 2 home head to heads.
• This is 6th v 2nd in the Portugeuse Primera Liga.
• A must win for Porto in their tussle with Benfica at the top of the league.

Maritimo 100% stats

• Scored 2 goals at home v 1st and 3rd.

Maritimo other stats

• 4 consecutive home wins.
• Lost recently to Benfica albeit away.
• No 0-0 at halftime last 9 matches.
• At least one team has scored 2 goals in each of the last 7 matches.
• No defeat in 13 at home.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
• 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Porto 100% stats

• Unbeaten outside the top 4.
• Not conceded 2 goals in an away match v 4th and lower.

Porto other stats

• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 4 draws in 6 matches.
• Unbeaten in 28 matches and 13 away.
• Not lost to nil this season.

Conclusions

• There could be trouble ahead......?
• Maritimo have scored 2 goals at home v 1st and 3rd. Can they score 2 goals against Porto who have only lost one match and not lost in 28 matches.
• If Maritimo do score 2 goals I would still be laying them. Let's hope it's a 2-0!
• This is a match where you take a position and stick with it. I am with Porto not losing today and I acknowledge Maritimo could be a thorn in the side.
• 2-2, 2-3 possibles as trading angles IF Maritimo score 2 goals and do not win!

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