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Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 6th March 2021

Time: Mar 6, 2021 02:30 PM London

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Burnley v Arsenal - 1.67 Arsenal

Burnley - 15th

  • Draw, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss recently.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • All defeats v the top 5.
  • 4-2 loss last head to head.

Leicester - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses in 13 were out of the blue 1-3 defeats v Leeds and Arsenal at home. Lost to Arsenal latest.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Burnley are on a draw sequence and that could be best case scenario for them against a Leicester undefeated away in 8 and away v 7th and lower. Further, Burnley have lost to all top 5.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 Burnley home matches and -1.5 goals in 5/8 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Sheffield Utd v Southampton - 2.25 Southampton

  • Bottom of the league Sheff Utd had a quick flurry with 3 wins but are back to 4 consecutive defeats. They have failed to score last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 10 at home for United.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home for Sheff Utd, none at fulltime.
  • 20th v 9th. 100% defeats v the top 12 for United.
  • 7/9 Sheff goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • A good win v Aston Villa latest.
  • 8 losses and a draw for Southampton does not make them strong favourite here.
  • They scored 2 goals only once in their last 9 matches and that is the cause of their woes. Early season heroics were down to reliable goal scoring.
  • Angles? I would look to back 0-0 pre match and hope this is as tight as the form suggests.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Southampton away matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Southampton such matches. Sheffield Utd have conceded first in 12/15 home matches.

17:30 - Aston Villa v Wolves - 2.37 Aston Villa

  • A local derby of sorts.
  • We all know Aston Villa away, defensively sound but they did lose 1-0 to Sheff Utd last match.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home latest.. Losses came v West Ham and Leicester.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 0-1 win v Wolves last head to head.
  • Villa are one of those unreadable sides. No real home patterns. Win v 10th, Lose v 11th, Win v 13th, Lose v 14th. You get the idea!
  • Wolves were competitive v Man City at 1-1 but then swept away. That ended a run of 5 without defeat for Wolves.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss away from home. 0-0-2-1-1 goals scored away latest. Wolves are scoring away.
  • Wolves have only 1 win home and away v the top 9 which must concern them. 9th v 12th today. But they are yet to play 7th, 8th, 9th away.
  • Angles? Derby factor must be accounted for. Aston Villa are a trader's nightmare. They have no home pattern. Wolves have scored last 3 away but are Danny Dyer against the top 9. A match befitting the 2.37 quote for the favourite.
  • Match outcome: Aston Villa have won 6/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Wolves have conceded first in 9/11 away matches. Wolves have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Brighton v Leicester - 2.62 Leicester

  • Only once in 8 matches have Brighton conceded a 2nd goal and that came in the 90th minute. Solid defence but no rewards. 2 draws and 2 defeats last 4 matches. The market gives them a chance in a match they cannot commit to.
  • 1st goal: Brighton have conceded first in 10/13 home matches against top-six teams while Leicester have scored first in 9/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Brighton have lost 8/13 home matches against top-six teams.

Scottish Premiership

15:00 - Aberdeen v Hamilton - 1.44 Aberdeen

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches. The match they did score in, they were similarly priced to today and won 1-0.
  • 4-2 and 1-1 last 2 head to heads this season.

Hamilton

  • The bottom 3 are separated by 3 points so all to play for with 2 matches remaining.
  • Were very close to a win v St Johnstone mid week until a late St Johnstone equaliser.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw latest for Hamilton. Really battling to stay in the SPL.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen are a little goal shy and a win, you'd think, would be an unspectacular 1-0. Hamilton may offer some fight here as they did against a really in form St Johnstone. I would consider laying Aberdeen if they scored first. Their odds are far too short for a side failing to score in 7/8 matches.
  • 1st goal: Aberdeen have scored first in 12/17 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hamilton Ac have lost 7/9 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Aberdeen have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Motherwell v Livingston - 2.15 Livingston

Motherwell - 9th

  • Questionable motivation with 2 matches remaining. They cannot get embroiled in the Relegation fight and will not be vying for any European Club competition places.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • But 2 consecutive home defeats, conceding 7 goals.
  • 2-2 and 0-2 in their favour last 2 head to heads.

Livingston

  • Have been excellent under the new manager but when I decided to jump on and support them they lost 2 consecutive matches.
  • Cannot reach the top 4 even if winning remaining matches.

Conclusions

  • That time in the season where motivation is lacking.
  • Match outcome: Motherwell have lost 7/11 home matches and they have lost by two or more goals in 8/14 home matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/17 Livingston away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Rangers v St Mirren - 1.25 Rangers

  • Dead rubbers all the way now for Rangers?
  • Match outcome: Rangers have won 10/11 home matches against top-half teams while St Mirren have lost 9/13 away matches against top half non-Big One teams. Rangers have won by two or more goals in 11/15 home matches.

15:00 - Ross County v Kilmarnock - 2.62 Kilmarnock

  • 10th v 11th. A relegation six pointer if ever there was one. The unique aspect of this match means that any form analysis is pointless. The market agrees.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Ross County home matches against bottom-six teams and in 10/10 Kilmarnock away matches. Kilmarnock have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - St Johnstone v Hibernian - 2.75 home and away side

  • 8th v 3rd. I suppose Hibs still have to keep Aberdeen from grabbing 3rd spot. It will be a feather in the cap of the manager to be the best team in Scotland outside of the Old Firm.
  • Both sides have been in excellent recent form and this is as tough to predict as you'd expect of a 2.75 the favourite match.
  • 1st half outcome: St Johnstone have drawn the first half in 9/10 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 St Johnstone home matches against top half non-Big One teams. Hibernian have scored first in 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Valladolid v Getafe - 2.80 Getafe

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 Valladolid home matches against middle-third teams while Getafe have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Valladolid have drawn 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams.

15:15 - Elche v Sevilla - 1.53 Sevilla

Elche - 19th

  • Only 1 win since 1st November 2020 came last home match.
  • No win v the top 10.

Sevilla - 4th

  • Since 7th November 2020, have only lost to Barcelona, Atl Madrid and Real Madrid.
  • 5 clean sheets last 6 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 100% wins away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It all looks good for Sevilla today, scoring 2 goals, only losing to top 3, keeping clean sheets but do remember they tend to come alive 2nd half if it is 0-0 first half.
  • 1st goal: Elche have conceded first in 6/12 home matches while Sevilla have won 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Sevilla have won the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

17:30 - Cadiz v Eibar - 2.37 Eibar

  • 15th v 16th and a market none too happy with calling this. Newly promoted at home can be anything!
  • 5 losses and 2 draws Cadiz latest.
  • They have lost their last 3 at home.
  • They are actually unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • Only 3 wins for Eibar. They have no win in 8 and in 7 away.
  • They lost 0-2 to Cadiz last time.
  • Angles? 2 sides at the wrong end of the table. 2 sides in very poor recent form but a Cadiz knowing that they are consistently unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • 1st goal: Cadiz have conceded first in 6/11 home matches while Eibar have scored first in 8/12 away matches. Cadiz have lost 7/13 home matches.

20:00 - Osasuna v Barcelona - 1.53 Barcelona

Osasuna

  • 4 wins and 2 defeats recently.
  • Only 3 defeats in 12 matches.
  • Not beaten top 7.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • 11 goals in total last 15 mins of home matches.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • 12 wins and 3 draws last 15 matches.
  • Messi has scored 8 goals last 6 matches. Still got it, the magician.
  • 7 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored last 17 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Simple equation. Play Messi, Win. Hope you are reading this Ronald McDonald Koeman! Still scoring and putting in superb performances as a finisher and assist.
  • Osasuna tend to flatten out at a single goal v the top sides so if scoring first, are unlikely to add to it.
  • HT/FT: Osasuna have had L/L double results in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Barcelona have had W/W double results in 10/15 away matches. Osasuna have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Frankfurt v Stuttgart - 1.85 Frankfurt

Frankfurt - 4th

  • Only 3 defeats all season and the most surprising was a 2-1 defeat to Werder Bremen latest.
  • That ended a run of 9 wins and a draw, scoring 2+ goals in every match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins. No defeat 11 at home.
  • Scored last 18 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Stuttgart - 10th

  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins latest.
  • 3 losses and a win away latest.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 11.
  • But...v 4th to 9th, have scored 2-5-1-2-2-2-1-2 goals so very competitive.

Conclusions

  • Frank will need 2 goals today you feel to get a positive result. Watch out for both teams to score. Stuttgart consistently score 2 goals v 4th-9th and that consistency is eye-catching. 2-2 an opening gambit?
  • We saw last match with Frankfurt that failing to score their usual 2 goals can be fatal. They are excellent at home and that might stand them in good stead but to compound matters, Stuttgart have a draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • A competitive match I feel.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 E. Frankfurt home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/10 VfB Stuttgart away matches. VfB Stuttgart have won 6/12 away matches.

14:30 - Freiburg v Leipzig - 1.67 Leipzig

Freiburg - 8th

  • 7 match unbeaten home run ended with a 0-1 loss v Union Berlin.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 5 but 2 home score draws.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 matches.
  • 3 goals scored 3 of last 4.
  • Scored last 10 and last 8 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 away.
  • Yet to beat the top 9 away with 4 score draws and a 0-1 loss.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Interesting record for Leipzig away v the top 9. Yet to win and playing a Freiburg side coming off the back of a 7 match unbeaten run, bar a 0-1 loss latest.
  • They have had 2 score draws at home v the top 5 so for me this is a competitive match, with both teams to score a possibility. Watch out for potential struggles from Leipzig and let the in-play stats suggest whether Leipzig can win as comfortably as they did last head to head.
  • 1st goal: RB Leipzig have scored first in 11/13 away matches and they have won 9/15 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 SC Freiburg home matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Augsburg - 2.05 Hertha

Hertha Berlin - 15th

  • 7 losses and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score 3 of last 4.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 4 at home.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.

Augsburg - 13th

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • 2 of those were 0-1 away.
  • 3 consecutive away losses ended with an away win.
  • 3 0-1 wins away v 14th and lower.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Hertha are in poor form and Augsburg have a good win record v 14th and lower, albeit 0-1 but 3 of them. So watch out for a potential tactic from Augsburg to nick a 0-1 yet again v a struggler. But last head to head was emphatically Hertha's.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Hertha Berlin home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Hertha Berlin such matches. Augsburg have scored first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg - 2.40 Wolfsburg

  • I suppose the market has characterised this as tough to call because the Hoff have been threatening 2/3 goals when they meet teams outside of the top 4 of late. The Wolf? Well it takes a good un to beat them latest. Leave this to the in-play stats. I am still haunted by Hoffenheim's 0-2 loss v Molde. It will forever remain one of Arthur C. Clarke's Mysteries how that scoreline occurred. Hopefully they show better in the Bundesliga than the Europa League.
  • 1st goal: Hoffenheim have conceded first in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams while Wolfsburg have won 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Wolfsburg have won by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

14:30 - M'gladbach v Leverkusen - 2.50 Mgladbach

  • Yet another of those big clashes that are so hard to read and anything could happen in-play. Leverkusen were very poor indeed last match.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 B. M'gladbach home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 B. M'gladbach such matches. Leverkusen have scored first in 8/10 away matches against top-half teams.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v Dortmund - 1.67 Bayern Munich

  • Another derby I daren't touch in what looks like a tough coupon in the Bundesliga today. Dotmund yet again in the cup mid week scored 2nd half so do remember that little pattern of theirs.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Bayern home matches against top-six teams and in 8/10 B. Dortmund away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 9/12 Bayern home matches.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Spezia v Benevento - 2.15 Spezia

  • Today's coupon is full of these umm-ing and ahh-ing matches. Here is a newly promoted meeting newly promoted so just a cursory glance.
  • 15th v 16th.
  • Identical points but the market is slightly more taken with Spezia.
  • Spezia do have 2 goals in them, as seen recently v Napoli, Sampdoria, Roma, Sassuolo, AC Milan and Parma and that could offer a threat today against a lesser light.
  • Benevento have only 1 loss in 10 matches v 10th-17th so will fancy it themselves today.
  • Angles? These 2 will fancy their chances against fellow newly promoted. Identical points and I can make a reasonable argument for either side. Spezia have 2 goals in them regularly, Benevento have a solid unbeaten record home and away v 10th-17th. In-play stats with me with a subtle hint that Spezia's scoring might see them right here.
  • 1st half outcome: Benevento have lost the first half in 8/12 away matches and they have conceded first in 7/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Spezia home matches.

17:00 - Udinese v Sassuolo - 2.37 Udinese

Udinese  -12th

  • Solid 1-1 v Milan mid week, a 0-1 lead undone by a 97th minute Milan converted penalty. GUTTED!
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came away v Roma. Rather gone under the radar.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win at home latest.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • v 7th-14th at home, 3/3 wins.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 8 goals in total last 15 mins of home matches.

Sassuolo - 9th

  • Win, Draw, Draw last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 13 and last 7 away.
  • 3-3 v Napoli latest came via literally the last kick of the match.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 15/22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2. Udinese are vastly improved lately and nearly beat Milan. Sassuolo tend to score and concede. Rely on that latter stat if Udinese score first today?
  • 1st half outcome: Udinese have drawn the first half in 8/11 home matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Sassuolo away matches against middle-third teams.

19:45 - Juventus v Lazio - 1.80 Juventus

  • Another high profile match.
  • Both sides are losing infrequently and putting together a solid run of wins, 6 consecutive at home for Juventus, 2+ goals scored in those and Lazio's wins, it must be said, are largely collected at home.
  • 1-1 last time these 2 met. Lazio have lost 3-1 and 3-2 away to the top 2 and meet 3rd today.
  • Angles? As ever, I plead the fifth with these types of matches. Juventus impressed mid week with 3 2nd half goals v Spezia but of course meet far stronger opponents today. In-play stats for me.
  • Match outcome: Juventus have won 8/10 home matches while Lazio have lost 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Juventus have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches.

Dutch Eredivisie

15:30 - Feyenoord v Venlo - 1.30 Feyenoord

Feyenoord - 5th

  • Draw, Draw, Loss recently. Priced to end this poor run. A theme we have seen with the likes of Olympiakos, Brentford after a poor recent run.
  • 4 wins and a loss in 5 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 15/23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

VVV Venlo - 15th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 15/16 matches.
  • Scored last 11 and last 10 away.
  • Only 1 win v top 10 away was a 0-1 v 7th.
  • 16/21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Redemption time for Feyenoord to end a winless sequence.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals. VVV do score and concede so could get in on the act without winning.
  • Match outcome: Feyenoord have won 13/15 home matches against bottom-six teams while VVV-Venlo have lost 13/14 away matches against top-six teams. Feyenoord have won the first half in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

17:45 - Twente v Willem-II - 1.80 Twente

Twente - 7th

  • 2 goals scored last 3 matches, a win and 2 draws.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • 4/4 wins away v the bottom 4 augurs well for home match. 0-3 last head to head.

Willem II - 16th

  • Only 4 wins. Won last match.
  • 12 losses and a draw v top 10 home and away. All defeats v top 10 away.

Conclusions

  • Although winning their last away match Willem II have 100% defeats away v the top 10 and with Twente scoring 2 goals consistently of late, that might continue today.
  • 1st goal: Twente have scored first in 10/20 home matches while Willem II have lost 11/15 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Willem II away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

19:00 - Heerenveen v Den Haag - 1.44 Heerenveen

Heerenveen - 10th

  • Only 2 wins since 8th November came at home recently.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • All wins at home v 15th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

ADO Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 draws in 5.
  • No win in 9 and in 4 away.
  • Not beaten top 13 sides.
  • 20/27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • ADO's form is so poor that it is Heerenveen by default despite poor recent form - they have beaten all sides at home 15th and lower.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/19 Heerenveen home matches and in 8/10 Den Haag away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Den Haag away matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - RKC Waalwijk v Utrecht - 1.70 Utrecht

RKC - 14th

  • 2 draws, 2 wins and a draw recently.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Win at home recently.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten top 10 at home.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Utrecht - 8th

  • Surprise loss to Emmen last match 0-1.
  • That ended a run of 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 15 - not scored that 2nd goal in those matches.
  • 9/12 goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • 11/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • RKC in sudden good form but are yet to beat the top 10 at home and play 8th today. Utrecht have 2 consecutive away wins and a disappointing loss v Emmen to get over. Very strong 2nd half goals patterns for both sides.
  • 1st half outcome: Waalwijk have lost the first half in 5/7 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams while Utrecht have scored first in 13/17 away matches against bottom-six teams. Waalwijk have conceded first in 5/7 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.