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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 6, 2018

I am not sure that it will be time well spent researching the FA Cup. I have prioritised the Spanish and Italian league matches. The FA Cup matches I would suggest are best served via the in-play stats. By all means take your cues from the market (note the favourites) and then see if the in-play stats (particularly shots on/off target and corners) justify the favouritism. I will list the matches for you so you can see the favourites at a glance and will choose one or two prominent matches to research. So far so good as far as live chat is concerned. 14:00 at the moment as long as there are no family interruptions. It will be on Twitter only @drtclub.

11:30 - Torino v Bologna - 2.22 Torino

  • 2-0 Bologna and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches v Napoli.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 home losses v top 4 teams.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower but 8 draws in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses but only 2 home means = 5 draws at home!
  • 8 of 12 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Bologna (12th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 2-2-2 conceded last 3 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score only 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 11, all wins away v 13th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams may score today and on form, Torino not lose. Bologna tend to win v 13th and lower and lose away v top 11. So they should struggle v 10th....right?
  • Torino do have a worrying draw pattern at home and v 8th and lower .If Bologna keep conceding 2 goals away, Torino might turn a score draw into a win today.
  • I would lay Bologna if Bologna scored first.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. torino tend to score first half at home.

14:00 - Benevento v Sampdoria - 2.14 Sampdoria

Benevento (20th)

  • 1st win of the season v Chievo last home match.
  • Only scored 2 goals at home once and that required the keeper to score the 2nd!!
  • Only 1 clean sheet last home match. Sampdoria have a reputation for goals so I would be very surprised if we see a clean sheet today.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the top 9.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sampdoria  (6th)

  • 4-3-0-3-2-3 goals conceded in recent away matches.
  • 3-0, 2-2, 3-2 losses recently away.
  • 4 defeats, a draw and a win in the last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower. 2-2, 0-2 win and 0-0 away.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria are in poor form and conceding 2+ goals readily away but they are unbeaten v 15th and lower and should remain so today. Benevento will be on a high having secured their sole win and clean sheet last home match but for me Sampdoria have a reputation for goals and should score and not lose today.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would expect 2nd half goals.

14:00 - Genoa v Sassuolo - 2.18 Genoa

  • 0-1 Sassuolo and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Genoa (16th)

  • 4 clean sheets in the last 5 matches.
  • 0-0-1-1-1-1-0-1-0 goals scored recently.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Genoa have scored 2 goals v 1st, 2nd and 5th but did not win. Against other sides they had trouble scoring that 2nd goal.
  • Not beaten a top 14 side home or away.

Sassuolo (14th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 3 wins out of 3 away v teams below them in the league. 2 of those wins were 0-1 and one was 1-2.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Sassuolo are favoured today in what could be a tight win, if they continue performing as they have done v teams below them in the league away from home.
  • Genoa tend to struggle scoring that 2nd goal at home outside of the top 5! Lay Genoa if Genoa score first on that basis. Sassuolo have the away momentum (3 wins in 4) and the form v teams below them in the league.

14:00 - AC Milan v Crotone - 1.37 AC Milan

  • 1-1 and 0-3 Milan in the last 2 head to heads.

AC Milan (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • All defeats bar 2 came v the top 6 teams.
  • In 7 of 9 matches played v teams below them in the league, Milan scored 2 goals at least.

Crotone (18th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away matches.
  • Beat 12th away 2-3 but that was the only win. Playing 11th today....
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in all away matches.

Conclusions

  • AC Milan have had some recent hiccups but may restore their form today against a team positioned in that part of the league in which AC Milan tend to score 2 goals.
  • Crotone beat 12th away from home but that does look anomolous.
  • I would lay Crotone if Crotone scored first despite AC Milan's single win in 7 matches.

14:00 - Napoli v Verona - 1.13 Napoli

Napoli (1st)

  • Single loss v Juventus.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches and in those 4 matches we saw 3 0-0's and a loss.
  • 100% win record v 14th and lower scoring 3+ goals in all bar one of those matches.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Verona  (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side.3-3-2-3-3 goals conceded home and away v top 5 teams.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Napoli should be scoring 3 goals at least today. The odds betray that fact too (sub 1.2 suggests 3/4 goals scored minimum).
  • It's a simplistic angle and one we can work with. I'd expect on that basis for at least a goal before halftime.

14:00 - Spal v Lazio - 1.57 Lazio

SPAL (17th)

  • 3 consecutive home score draws, 2 consecutive home 2-2's.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 of 14 matches.
  • Not played 2nd-6th inclusive at home.
  • Only 3 wins all season, includes 2 at home 3-2 v 8th and 1-0 v 16th.

Lazio (5th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches including last match.
  • 9 wins and a draw in 10 matches home and away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • SPAL may yet score today but not in victory. Lazio have a continuing excellent record v teams outside the top 10 and should eye the win today.
  • Lay Spal if Spal score first. I would lay any late draw in the hope the SPAL score draw sequence at home ends.

17:00 - Roma v Atalanta - 1.76 Roma

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Roma in the last 2 head to heads.

Roma (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 5 consecutive home wins ended with a 1-1 v Sassuolo.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 0-1-0-1 scored recently. Concerns up front?
  • All 3 defeats came v top 3.
  • 7 wins and a draw outside of the top 3 at home.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 goals scored first half at home.
  • Tend to score first at home.

Atalanta (9th)

  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No 0-0.
  • Lost away v 1st, 3rd, 6th and 8th.
  • 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Roma only tend to lose to top 3. Atalanta away have lost to top 8. Ergo we oppose any Atalanta lead?
  • Both teams tend to score in their matches so lay Atalanta if they score first.
  • There is a niggle though with Roma's recent poor goal scoring 0-1-0-1 That may hinder progress and be a reason why they are tepid favourites.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Roma are to score, it is highly likely to be first half.

19:45 - Cagliari v Juventus - 1.37 Juventus

  • 3 consecutive emphatic Juventus wins to nil in head to heads.

Cagliari (15th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 5 conceding 3 goals in 4 of the 5 defeats.
  • Not beaten a top 16 team at home with 5 losses and a 2-2.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Juventus (2nd)

  • 9 wins in 11 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 5 wins in 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 9 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • All wins v 10th and lower home and away scoring 2-4 goals.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 away.

Conclusions

  • The number 3 permeates these 2. In an ideal world, and on form, Juventus should be eyeing 2-4 goals today. Cagliari tend to concede 3 in defeat to top 5 teams.
  • Another match with another simplistic angle. You would assume a goal at least before halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

12:00 - Atletico Madrid v Getafe - 1.42 Atl Madrid

  • 6 consecutive Atl Madrid wins to nil in league head to heads.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Sole loss came last match away at Espanyol and it was not unexpected if Espanyol kept a clean sheet.
  • A reminder to Atl Madrid that their 2 previous 1-0 wins are a hard habit to continue. Espanyol mugged them in the 88th minute.
  • 10 clean sheets in 15 matches though for Madrid.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Getafe (8th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 came within the last 2 away matches.
  • Those were only 1-0 defeats.
  • No win in 6 away, conceding in their last 7 away.
  • Not played the top 9 away.
  • Very competitive at home v the top 4, only going down 1-2 v the big 2. Will that translate away?
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The template for beating Atl Madrid was provided by Espanyol last match. Exploit Madrid's tendency to aim for a 1-0 win. Simply keep it tight, and then mug them 88th minute!
  • Getafe note have lost 1-0 last 2 away matches. Concern? A big gap in form. They are yet to play the top 9 away.
  • Atl Madrid remain unbeaten at home and should do so today. Getafe have no win in 6 away matches.

15:15 - Valencia v Girona - 1.7 Valencia

Valencia (3rd)

  • Excellent season  but all 3 losses have come within the last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home came last match , a 0-1 v Villareal.
  • 1-0-2-1-0 scored recently. The 'second' was a penalty. Trouble up front?
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 9 wins and a 1-1 v 9th and lower home and away.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.

Girona (10th)

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Only played one of the top 9 away and that was a loss.

Conclusions

  • Another match with a 'gap' in form. Girona have only played one top 9 team away.
  • So, how do we take the scoring in the last 11 matches? Will that pervade v top 9 teams away from home?
  • Valencia are having trouble scoring of late and all 3 losses came recently. They are a wobbly favourite.
  • I would take a chance here and lay Valencia should Valencia score first only in the hope they stumble to get that 2nd goal. Should their form return though they have the beating of a newly promoted side.

17:30 - Las Palmas v Eibar - 2.66 Las Palmas

  • All together now.......2.66 favourite suggests a match to leave alone. I'll still research though in case there's a goal angle.
  • 1-0 Las Palmas and 3-1 Eibar in the last 2 head to heads.

Las Palmas (20th and bottom)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 8, the majority away.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Eibar (7th)

  • 5 wins and a 0-0 last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 wins.
  • Only 2 wins prior to this recent flurry.
  • Wins away v 17th and 19th.
  • Defeats away came v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Eibar are the team to be with, thanks to that recent flurry of wins. Las Palmas may continue to concede 2 goals so lay Las Palmas if they score first.
  • Eibar only tend to lose away v top 9. There seems no evidence to argue against that pattern being broken.

19:45 - Sevilla v Betis - 1.55 Sevilla

  • 5 consecutive Sevilla wins in head to heads.

Sevilla (5th)

  • 6 consecutive home wins ended with a 0-0 last home match.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 6/8 at home.

Betis (14th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Did beat Real Madrid away but that looks anomolous. Bar that match, 2-3-5-4 goals conceded v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Betis caught Real Madrid short with a 0-1 away win but that is not the norm. Look at their concessions v other top 9 teams. I think we may see them revert to that today against a Sevilla admittedly kept to a 0-0 last home match.

F.A. CUP matches

12:45 - Fleetwood Town v Leicester - 1.6 Leicester

Fleetwood Town

  • Recent form all competitions - League One side ; no draw in 8 matches ; 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
  • Recent home form all competitions -  only 1 win in 7 matches ; 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Recent form FA Cup -  only 1 loss in 9 matches ; not played a Premier League team recently.
  • Recent home form FA Cup -  only 2 90 minute wins in 9 matches ; not played a Premier League team recently.

Leicester

  • Recent form all competitions -  only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Recent away form all competitions - scored and conceded in their last 7 matches ; 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats.
  • Recent form FA Cup -  scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches ; only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Recent away form FA Cup -  scored and conceded in 12 of 14 matches ; only 3 wins in 17 matches goes back to 2005 ; scored in 12 of their last 14 matches.

Conclusions

  • Logic suggests Premier League Leicester should cope with Fleetwood. Fleetwood have not actually played a Premier League side in the FA Cup in recent years so there is an element of the unknown.
  • Will Leicester continue to score and concede?

13:00 - Middlesbrough v Sunderland - 1.7 Middlesbrough

15:00 - Aston Villa v Peterborough - 1.72 Aston Villa

15:00 - Birmingham v Burton - 2.18 Birmingham

15:00 - Blackburn v Hull - 2.2 Blackburn

15:00 - Bolton v Huddersfield - 2.24 Huddersfield

15:00 - Brentford v Notts Co - 1.47 Brentford

15:00 - Cardiff v Mansfield - 1.63 Cardiff

15:00 - Carlisle v Sheff Wed - 1.94 Sheff Wed

15:00 - Coventry v Stoke - 1.77 Stoke

15:00 - Doncaster v Rochdale - 2.12 Doncaster

15:00 - Exeter v West Brom - 1.68 West Brom

15:00 - Fulham v Southampton - 2.5 Southampton

15:00 - Ipswich v Sheff Utd - 2.42 Sheff Utd

15:00 - Man City v Burnley - 1.19 Man City

Man City

  • Recent form all competitions - only 1 loss since 21st August 2017 came in the Champions League.
  • Recent home form all competitions - 13 wins and a 0-0 last 14 matches.
  • Recent form FA Cup - unbeaten in 6 matches. ; did not concede 2 goals in 90 minutes in those matches.
  • Recent home form FA Cup - no draw in 18 matches ; Loss - Win - Loss - Win recently albeit from 2014 and 2015 the losses.  New team, new mentality right?

Burnley

  • Recent form all competitions - no win in 5 matches.
  • Recent away form all competitions - a loss and 3 consecutive draws.0-0-2-0 scored.
  • Recent form FA Cup - only 1 goal conceded in 4 matches.
  • Recent away form FA Cup - since 2015, only 2 wins in 16 matches.

Conclusions

  • A feeling City will continue along their merry way.
  • There is a hint Burnley do not prioritise the FA Cup.
  • City are under new management for the first time in the FA Cup recently.
  • Lay any late draw?

15:00 - Millwall v Barnsley - 1.97 Millwall

15:00 - Newcastle v Luton - 1.52 Newcastle

  • A new manager for Newcastle. How will he approach the Fa Cup? Surely the priority is Premier League survival?
  • Luton are top of League Two so in good form in the context of their level.
  • 6 defeats, a draw and a win for Newcastle in the FA Cup recently suggests to me that they do not prioritize this competition.
  • Good recent form in the FA Cup for Luton but not against a Premier League side.
  • Team news important.
  • Contextually, Newcastle have no home win in 6 matches. This is an opportunity to stop the rot today.5 defeats and a 0-0 and failing to score in 3 at home. Just on that basis really, I would expect Benitez to push for a momentum changing win.

15:00 - QPR v MK Dons - 1.79 QPR

15:00 - Stevenage v Reading - 2.04 Reading

15:00 - Watford v Bristol City - 1.49 Watford

15:00 - Wolves v Swansea - 1.85 Wolves

15:00 - Wycombe v Preston - 1.98 Preston

15:00 - Yeovil v Bradford - 1.75 Bradford

17:30 - Norwich v Chelsea - 1.48 Chelsea

Norwich

  • Recent form all competitions - 2 wins and a 0-0 last 3 matches.
  • Recent home form all competitions - only 2 wins in 10 matches ; 5 draws there. ; scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Recent form FA Cup - 5 losses and 2 draws ; failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Recent home form FA Cup - only 1 win in their last 11 matches.

Chelsea

  • Recent form all competitions - unbeaten in 7 matches ; 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Recent away form all competitions - a win and 2 draws last 3 matches.
  • Recent form FA Cup - no draw in 17 matches ; only 2 losses since 2016 were v Premier League teams ; 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Recent away form FA Cup - Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss. Losses came v Premier league teams.

Conclusions

  • Team news key particularly for Premier League teams.
  • Chelsea tend only to lose to Premier League teams. If that continues today, lay Norwich if Norwich lead.
  • Lay any late draw? Chelsea tend to avoid draws in the Fa Cup.Norwich do not seem 'up for the cup'.