Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a video at DRT Facebook and Telegram all day. The in-play stats feed at www.drtinplaystats.com is down currently and is being worked on (I have been reassured). I will pencil in a live chat webinar for 14:30 on Zoom and DRT Facebook live but the live chat webinar will not be held if the in-play stats feed at www.drtinplaystats.com is not fixed by 14:30. In that case, I will revert to Telegram only for the day.

ZOOM details:

Passcode  650761

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 6th February 2021

Time: Feb 6, 2021 02:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting:

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87415081095?pwd=MHhjQVFMdlpLUFF2ajk2SW5ic2pmUT09

Meeting ID: 874 1508 1095

Passcode: 650761


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Aston Villa v Arsenal - 2.50 Arsenal

  • The market cannot split these 2 so we must respect its insight.
  • Arsenal's excellent revival ended with a loss away to Wolves but there were extenuating circumstances - a couple of red cards.
  • So I would not take that result as any decline in form. On form prior to this match, Arsenal are well placed to get something here.
  • Only 2 recent wins for Aston Villa v Newcastle United and Southampton.
  • Arsenal's seasonal form is not an accurate representation of where they are now.
  • Angles? I quietly fancy Arsenal here. No alarms with that Wolves loss. 2 red cards.

15:00 - Burnley v Brighton - 2.30 Brighton

  • 2 more sides best looked at via their recent results, particularly Brighton.
  • After 9 consecutive matches keeping opponents to one goal maximum Burnley have now conceded 2 goals at least in 3 consecutive matches.
  • Brighton look formidable defensively and took advantage of Liverpool's inability to score at home by shutting them out again and winning 0-1.
  • That makes it 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 for Brighton latest.
  • Angles? Back 0-0 pre match. These 2 have had a defensive characteristic. Will Burnley react to recent 2 goal concessions. It is really not like them?

15:00 - Newcastle v Southampton - 2.20 Southampton

Newcastle - 16th

  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 losses but have, in both matches, impressed with their shots on target and off target stats.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Wins at home saw both teams score and were v 8th, 15th and 19th.
  • 1-2 losses at home v teams either side of Southampton.
  • 8/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Southampton - 12th

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Southampton are favoured on their form v 14th and lower.
  • Newcastle are on the cusp of scoring that 2nd goal having really impressed in 2 1-2 losses at home recently.
  • Both teams could score. Watch to see if Newcastle click today. In-play stats have impressed last 2 home matches.

17:30 - Fulham v West Ham - 2.20 West ham

  • This is a London Derby and I'm going to have to be with the Hamsters here today, particularly with the arrival of Jesse Lingard, who was managed by Moyes when at Man Utd. He opened his account with an impressive display in the impressive win v Aston Villa.
  • I just feel that West Ham will do to Fulham what they did to Aston Villa.
  • Fulham have conceded 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches and that, of course, negates their oft sought after 1-1.
  • 2-3-1-3 goals scored by West Ham latest. They are scoring and conceding but if scoring that 2nd goal have the advantage.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0 as seen in the last West Ham match v Aston Villa.

20:00 - Man Utd v Everton - 1.53 Man Utd

Man Utd - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss since 7th November 2020.
  • Scored last 5 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Everton - 6th

  • 1-2 win v Leeds latest.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away matches for Everton.
  • 2-1-2-2 goals scored last 4 away.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • 5 wins and a loss away v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • Attack v defence? But then Everton scored 2 goals in 3/4 away matches.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Man Utd's odds look a little short v a solid enough Everton side away from home.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Celtic v Motherwell - 1.40 Celtic

Celtic - 2nd

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came v Rangers.
  • Lost to St Mirren last home match.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 3-0 and 1-4 wins v Motherwell already this season.

Motherwell

  • Draw draw loss win scoring and conceding in 3 of those matches. I think new manager for Motherwell so only recent matches.
  • 1-1 at home v Rangers bears our attention given they play the other Old Firm side today.

Conclusions

  • Celtic were excellent against Kilmarnock latest and have 2 comprehensive wins v Motherwell but do prepare. New manager for Motherwell.

15:00 - Hibernian v Aberdeen - 2.62 Hibernian

  • 3 wins in 4 for Hibs.
  • Aberdeen have failed to score in 3 matches and their last 3 matches have seen the favourite at these odds.
  • Aberdeen ended their 2 0-0 sequence latest.
  • Angles? It is hard to read Aberdeen at present.
  • 0-1 loss and 2-0 loss for Hibs v Aberdeen recently.

15:00 - Livingston v St Johnstone - 2.40 Livingston

  • The impact of a new manager for Livvy. Unbeaten in 11 and an impressive 0-2 away win v a solid enough Aberdeen.
  • They meet a St Johnstone side unbeaten in 6 albeit 4 draws and 2 wins. Last match 2-3 win v Kilmarnock which I called last Saturday.
  • In 9 matches under the new manager, Livvy have scored 2 goals.
  • Angles? The market cannot let St Johnstone go here but we must respect Livingston under new management and their 2 goals. I will nod towards Livvy here.
  • Not looking at head to heads.

15:00 - Ross County v Dundee Utd - 2.45 Ross County

Ross County - 11th

  • Only 6 wins.
  • 2 wins in 4 matches is therefore a good ratio in that context. Good comeback v fellow strugglers Hamilton to go from 1-0 to 1-2 win latest.
  • 1-1, 4-1 win, 1-2 loss latest at home.
  • Conceded last 6 and last 7 at home.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 17/25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 2 1-2 losses to Dundee United this season.

Dundee United - 7th

  • 3 draws and 3 losses last 6 matches.
  • No win in 11 away matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, 4 at fulltime.
  • Only 2 away wins v 9th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • 2.45 the favourite suggests this is too tough to call. Dundee United have done the double over Ross County this season, 2-1 wins. Enough to give the nod to Dundee United and to potentially expect a both teams to score match?

15:00 - St Mirren v Kilmarnock - 2.15 St Mirren

St Mirren - 6th

  • Got a nice 22 odds payout on the 1-2 loss v Hibernian last match. St Mirren were down to 10 men. They have goals in them.
  • 0-1 loss and 1-1 draw in head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 4th and lower was that loss v Killie.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches. 7 goals scored in the 2 away wins, including 2 goals v Celtic.
  • 11/15 goals conceded at home came 1st half. 10 goals conceded at home last 1/2 hour of first half.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Levante v Granada - 2.20 Levante

Levante - 9th

  • Only 2 losses in 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Only home loss v 3rd.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Granada - 8th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away from home.
  • 14 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Excellent home form for Levante has me expecting a positive from them.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals.

15:15 - Huesca v Real Madrid - 1.44 Real Madrid

  • 20th v 3rd.
  • Huesca have failed to score at home v the top 5. 4-1 loss to real Madrid earlier.
  • Only 1 away loss for Real Madrid.
  • I treat newly promoted at home matches with a bit of caution but surely...?

17:30 - Elche v Villarreal - 1.60 Villareal

Elche - 19th

  • No win in 14 and in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 8 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Villareal - 5th

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches.
  • 2 wins and 3 draws last 5 matches.
  • Losses only v the top 4.
  • 3/3 draws v the bottom 2.
  • 10/12 goals scored away 1st half and 6 of those in the first 15 minutes.

Conclusions

  • Elche are in poor form. Villareal will have to break a 3/3 draw habit v the bottom 2 today. They certainly shouldn't lose, only doing so v top 4.

20:00 - Sevilla v Getafe - 1.67 Sevilla

Sevilla - 4th

  • Only 2 losses since 7th November 2020.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • A draw and 3 wins last 4 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 3 at home.
  • All wins at home v 5th-13th.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Getafe - 12th

  • 2 wins, a loss and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • All defeats away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Sevilla today. If they lose it tends to be 0-1 and that is ok for trading. Over the 0-1 and back Sevilla +1 if we see that scoreline. But Sevilla are now scoring 2 goals at home so will feel confident.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Wolfsburg - 1.83 Wolfsburg

Augsburg - 13th

  • 5 losses and 2 wins last 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win at home recently.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • 3/3 losses to nil at home v the top 4.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Wolfsburg - 3rd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 2-2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
  • 2 goals scored in 4/5 matches.
  • Draw and 2 wins last 3 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Favour Wolf today, only losing to Bayern and Dortmund and scoring 2 goals latest.

14:30 - Freiburg v Dortmund - 1.57 Dortmund

Freiburg - 9th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches came within the last 4 matches and away.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side.
  • 3 score draws and a loss at home v the top 7.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • 10/15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund - 6th

  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Win recently.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • Both teams scored in 12/13 matches.
  • Scored last 17 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • Losses away v 5th, 7th, 8th, 13th.
  • 15/18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This will be competitive for Dortmund today given Freiburg are in excellent recent form and unbeaten in 6 at home. They have scored 2+ goals last 5 at home.
  • Dortmund have been poor recently and their losses away, 3 of them came v the top 8 and they meet 9th.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Stuttgart - 2.00 Leverkusen

Leverkusen - 5th

  • Dominated in the cup mid week without scoring. I would suggest they are more trustworthy in the Bundesliga.
  • That said, it's 5 defeats, a draw and a in last 7 matches, 3 losses in 4 matches and loss, draw, win, loss at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, 3 1-0 losses.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 5 at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 4.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Stuttgart - 10th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen have been poor of late but it does coincide with meeting top 4 sides and that is where the losses tend to come from. I would see them as more competitive today and potentially ending this poor run of 3 1-0 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Lay Stuttgart if Stuttgart score first but cover the 0-1 therefore.

14:30 - Mainz v Union Berlin - 2.30 Union Berlin

  • 17th v 8th.
  • Where did they find that 3-2 home win v Leipzig latest? Out of nowhere. That is one of only 2 wins for Mainz all season.
  • Despite winning their last home match, Mainz conceded 2 goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • Mainz have conceded last 10 home matches.
  • 4-0 loss to Union last head to head.
  • 8/9 goals scored at home by Mainz came first half.
  • Only 4 defeats for newly promoted Union, but 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Union failed to score only once this season in one of those away defeats.
  • 10/12 goals conceded away by Union came 2nd half.
  • Angles? The market cannot readily discount Mainz and there is a question mark as to how they can suddenly beat Leipzig 3-2. Will that momentum carry to a newly promoted side? We shall see.
  • Union Berlin tend to score and coincidentally the only team they failed to score against was Leipzig.
  • Both teams may score today I think.

14:30 - Schalke v Leipzig - 1.37 Leipzig

  • 18th v 2nd and Schalke have 100% defeats v the top 7 with a 4-0 loss v Leipzig last time these 2 met.
  • They failed to score at home v the top 5.
  • A 3-2 loss v Mainz for Leipzig is the only blot v 8th and lower, where we see 10 wins and a draw apart from that Mainz loss.
  • Angles? No indepth research required. Leipzig expect to win today given that Schalke tend to have trouble even scoring at home v the top 5.

17:30 - M'gladbach v Koln - 1.50 Mgladbach

Mgladbach - 7th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored in 11/13 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 18 and last 10 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-3 win v Koln earlier.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 at home.

Koln - 14th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • only 1 win v the top 15.

Conclusions

  • On probability, Koln don't tend to win v the top 15.
  • Mgladbach may let them score - strong both teams to score pattern but come out unbeaten.
  • Strong 2nd half goal scoring. Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Atalanta v Torino - 1.36 Atalanta

Atalanta - 7th

  • Did not turn up last match, clearly indicated by the in-play stats.
  • 1-3 loss resulted - 1st loss since 13th December 2020.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 2-4 win last head to head.
  • 65% goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Torino - 17th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v AC Milan.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 13 home or away.
  • In 7/8 matches v the top 8 home and away, Torino conceded 2+ goals at least.
  • 14/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • In-play stats check is necessary. Atalanta do inexplicably don't turn up in some matches, and those have tended to be after a mid week cup match. So no excuses this occasion?
  • Torino may help them out given they tend to concede 2+ goals v the top 8 too regularly.
  • Expect 2nd half goals if it is quiet first half.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Spezia - 1.83 Sassuolo

Sassuolo - 8th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 11/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of those last 15 mins of home matches.

Spezia - 16th

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Only played 1 of 4th-12th away and that was a win v 5th.
  • 1-4 loss to Sassuolo earlier this season.
  • 15/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I must favour Sassuolo here although they are likely to concede.
  • They have a very strong 2nd half scoring record so remember that.
  • Bit of a gap in form for Spezia though v 4th to 12th which may muddy the waters.

17:00 - Juventus v Roma - 1.75 Juventus

  • Only 2 losses for Juventus, one came with a red card v Fiorentina.
  • This match falls into the bracket of high profile derby (of sorts). The market clearly fancies the home side.
  • 4th v 3rd. Juventus though have not met the top 6 at home. 2-2 last time these 2 met.
  • Roma struggle away. No win v the top 9 away, with a draw and 4 losses conceding 3-4-3-4-3 goals. Ouch!
  • Angles? This could be one of those top 4 clashes where it is best on the day so I think in-play stats or not at all here.

19:45 - Genoa v Napoli - 1.65 Napoli

Genoa - 14th

  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins at home recently.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side. Not beaten top 6 at home 6-0 loss last head to head.
  • 62% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli - 5th

  • 4 wins and 2 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • 100% wins away v 12th and lower.
  • 11/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are in excellent recent form and are keeping clean sheets. Napoli can throw in the odd laboured performance so watch the in-play stats. If Napoli do not show up, it will become very apparent in the in-play stats.
  • Their 100% win record v 12th and lower away though cannot be ignored.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

15:30 - PSV Eindhoven v Twente - 1.40 PSV

  • We saw with Feyenoord v PSV recently an air of unreadability about the match. This match is edging towards a derby.
  • 2nd v 7th.

PSV - 2nd

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • All wins at home bar a loss v AZ Alkmaar.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats have come v the top 5.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Twente - 7th

  • 3 draws in 4 matches, and 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 away matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • v the top 6 away, win v 1st, draw v 4th and 6th, both teams scoring.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Creeping into the category of 'high profile derby' match. PSV had better be on their guard. Twente could score today as they have done away v the top 6, and note they are unbeaten so far.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • PSV, remember, have scored in every match. Remember that if Twente lead, particularly note Twente conceded 8/10 goals away 2nd half.

17:45 - Zwolle v RKC Waalwijk - 2.10 Zwolle


19:00 - Emmen v AZ Alkmaar - 1.44 AZ Alkmaar

Emmen - 18th

  • 6 losses and a 0-0 last 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • No win in 20 and in 10 at home.
  • Conceded last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% defeats v top 5. 1-0 loss earlier this season.

AZ Alkmaar - 5th

  • 3 losses, 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • No defeat in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches away. Conceded last 10 away.
  • Conceded last 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 4/4 draws away v 11th and lower.
  • 13/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Emmen are highly likely to concede. Simple!
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • AZ Alkmaar themselves are conceding but in doing so, should not lose.

20:00 - Heerenveen v Vitesse - 2.00 Vitesse

Heerenveen - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 13 came last home match v Feyenoord. Completely out of the blue and breaking a whole raft of negative patterns.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-1 last time these 2 met.
  • 2-2 at home v 2nd and 3-0 win at home v 4th.
  • 7/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Vitesse - 3rd

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 4 wins, a loss and a draw latest.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Far more vulnerable away, with only 1 win away v the top 14 (6 matches played).

Conclusions

  • What on Earth do we make of this 3-0 Heerenveen win v Feyenoord? Really impressive but quite simply not expected. They play another top 4 side at home and this top 4 side is poor away.
  • I will suggests you follow the in-play stats to monitor this Heerenveen side to see if any surprises lurk.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.