Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

14:30 for a live chat webinar today.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1387857843175115521
is the link.
After a 5 fold increase in the betting bank last year, the Bankers got off to a dire start. Brighton scored their maximum one goal but United did as they did at West Brom and get shut out. Bray decided to score 2 goals for the first time this season. Braga decided to wind me up by missing a penalty which would have brought the return.
Juventus are the banker bet today. Win and they win the title. The arguments for them and against Bologna can be found in the research.
No lay the 0-0 halftime score market today although Juve should score before halftime based on form. There is a DRT Shorties list at the Facebook page which I'll be following during the live chat.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Stoke v C Palace - 2.74 Stoke

  • 2-1 Palace last head to head.
  • Stoke must win. Simples. Palace will be hoping Everton win. Southampton are the only side who can catch Palace if Southampton win their remaining 2 matches and Palace lose their remaining 2 matches. A point will suffice today for Palace.
  • Stoke have been bright bar 4 losses v teams you'd expect them to lose to. Elsewhere, they have 6 draws, 4 1-1's and 2 0-0's.
  • Drawitis has cost Stoke. 2-1-2-3-0-5 goals scored by Palace of late has seen them survive a blip to almost assure Premier League survival (although I am guessing they are assured survival with goal difference over Saints).
  • Recent Stoke scorelines at home have tended to be 1-1 or 1-2.
  • The market simply shrugs its shoulders in this true relegation six pointer. You get the feeling Stoke are not equipped to win at present. That would be my angle. A Stoke win gets Swansea worried. Huddersfield play Man City too so an expected loss there has Stoke thinking win.

15:00 - Leicester v West Ham - 2.34 Leicester

  • Leicester are safe. West Ham must get some more points. They will be in trouble if they lose and Southampton win.
  • 3 matches remain for West Ham and you feel they should retain premier league status.
  • Leicester have been treading water of late, with 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches. West Ham are working on past glories. Only 2 wins in 12 matches is really relegation form. 4 losses and a draw away for West Ham recently.
  • West Ham keep scoring and conceding - last 8 away.
  • West Ham know Huddersfield are likely to lose. They will be hoping that Southampton lose as the Saints along with Stoke are the only teams to drag any of 14th-17th into the relegation zone.
  • On form, a possibility for both teams to score today.

15:00 - West Brom v Tottenham - 1.45 Tottenham

  • It's not all over for West Brom who must win their remaining 3 matches. 2 wins and 2 draws lately gives them confidence particularly when we know they played the likes of Man Utd, Liverpool and an in-form Newcastle.
  • Tottenham's only losses since 2nd December came v Manchester City so they are formidable, but then so should Man Utd and Liverpool have been for West Brom.
  • Tottenham have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 so West Brom may get a sniff today.
  • They will have to do something to stop a Spurs side who have scored in their last 23 matches.
  • Tottenham remain unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. 2 consecutive score draws for West Brom at home. I certainly think they'll have trouble keeping a clean sheet so another score draw looks best case.
  • 3-2-2-4 goals conceded by West Brom at home v the big guns. 2-2 a tradable scoreline?

15:00 - Watford v Newcastle - 2.48 Watford

  • Watford are not mathematically there yet. Similar goal difference to Southampton. Watford have only 2 matches remaining to Southampton's 3. They must get some more points to assure that they are not left to reliance on other results.
  • 3 matches remain for Newcastle who are on a 2 match 1-0 losing run after a 4 match winning sequence which all but assures survival.
  • 5 1-0 losses away for Newcastle v 6th and lower suggests this will be a tight match with Newcastle typically tough to score against.
  • Watford did have a reputation for 2 goals but recently they have scored 0-1-1-0-0-2-1-0-0-0. Poor stuff. 0-1 is a potential scoreline if Newcastle click.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Swansea - 2.2 Bournemouth

  • Bournemouth have played one more match than 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th so are still in the relegation battle. They have only 2 matches remaining.
  • Swansea are 4th bottom.
  • 3 consecutive losses for Bournemouth v the likes of Liverpool and Man Utd.
  • 2-4-1-2-2 goals conceded at home recently by Bournemouth.Swansea are yet to win away in 7 for their new manager. This is what may get them relegated. They have scored 1-1-1-0-0-1-0 goals recently away. This away form is the killer as the Swans at home are showing superb form.
  • 16 of Bournemouth's 19 matches recently have seen over 2.5 goals. Can Swansea exploit this generosity? It seems not away from home.
  • This is a key match for both sides, more so for Bournemouth who are running out of matches.
  • Angles in? If Swansea cannot score 2 goals away, then lay them if they score first.

17:30 - Everton v Southampton - 2.66 Southampton

  • Quite simply a must win for Southampton. 2 matches remain for Everton.The problem for Southampton? This is Everton's last home match of the season. They will not be laying down to get their tummies tickled.
  • Only Man City has beaten Everton in their last 7 matches. A draw and a win for Southampton sees them fighting, as does their 3 remaining matches. They must make these 3 count.
  • 1-1-1-0-3-0-0 conceded at home by Everton recently. The 3 was v Man city. They are tough as hell to score against. 1-0-0-2-0 goals scored by Saints away lately will not cut it.
  • Saints do not look equipped today to get past this tough Everton home defence. Last home match for Everton means they will not take it easy.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Girona v Eibar - 2.14 Girona

  • 4-1 Eibar in the last head to head.
  • 3 matches remain this season. Relegation is decided this season. Top 10 is available for both teams.
  • Apart from that it is a dead rubber.
  • Eibar failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches. Girona failed to score last 2 at home.
  • No thanks! Season over for these 2.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Betis - 2.3 Bilbao

  • 2-1 and 0-1 Bilbao last 2 head to heads.
  • Realistically nothing for these 2 to play for. Bilbao are safe on 40 points. Betis cannot realistically reach Valencia in top 4 spot. They can mathematically, but will require Valencia to conveniently lose all remaining matches.
  • 7 wins in 8 for Betis sees them in red hot form.6 clean sheets in 7. In contrast Bilbao scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Bilbao have not beaten top 7 at home,but did draw 4 matches.
  • No strong angles. On form, Betis are the side to be with. We cannot discount a draw for Bilbao but perhaps lay Bilbao if Bilbao score first given their inability to win v top 7 at home.

17:30 - Celta Vigo v Deportivo - 1.64 Celta Vigo

  • 1-3 Celta Vigo last head to head.
  • Deportivo are relegated. Celta are 11th.
  • Deportivo gave it a good run - 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss last 5 matches. The last 3 matches I think did for them.
  • Celta are unbeaten in 9 at home with 3 draws in 4 at home recently.
  • 8 defeats and 2 draws v top 12 away for Deportivo.
  • Celta are unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • A dead rubber but I think the motivation is with Celta to continue their excellent home run.

19:45 - Villarreal v Valencia - 2.24 Villareal

  • Valencia cannot really be caught in 4th place and they could threaten 2nd and 3rd if they so desired.
  • Villareal are 6th and have that place to play for.
  • Villareal have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. Valencia have not won in 4 matches.
  • Villareal beat 2nd and 5th at home and may give Valencia a game today.
  • Both teams have scored 18 2nd half goals so note that if a quiet first half.
  • Other than that motivation is questionable. Valencia despite the season long form might be layable if leading if Villareal continue their good run v top sides at home.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Augsburg v Schalke - 2.26 Schalke

  • 3-2 Schalke in the last head to head.
  • 2 matches remain.
  • Augsburg are safe. Schalke will confirm 2nd spot with a win.
  • The key stat for me in this dead rubber of sorts - Schalke have scored in their last 26 matches.
  • Augsburg did not beat a top 5 side this season so lay them if they score first given the expectation for a goal from Schalke.
  • A straightforward angle.

14:30 - Dortmund v Mainz - 1.33 Dortmund

  • 1-1 and 0-2 Dortmund last 2 head to heads.
  • Dortmund have a chance of 2nd spot.Mainz are bang in the relegation battle.

Dortmund (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses in 17 matches came away.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Tend to score 2 goals at least v 14th and lower.

Mainz (14th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Concede 2-4 goals away v top 7 sides.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Dortmund score 2 goals at least and win.
  • Don't forget the 'West Brom' factor. Will Mainz surprise when they need points the most? On form, NO!!

14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg - 1.96 Frankfurt

  • 0-0 and 1-2 Frankfurt last head to heads.
  • This is a must win for Hamburg who have won 3 of their last 4 matches but remain 2nd bottom.
  • They play a Frankfurt with 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • I see no reason for Frankfurt's odds on quote and would, given circumstance and 3 wins in 4, look for a positive performance from Hamburg. The value would be in laying Frankfurt if they score first.
  • The hurdle Hamburg have? No win away v top 15 sides.

14:30 - FC Koln v Bayern Munich - 1.29 Bayern

  • Bayern Munich keep delivering even with the title well under wraps for some time.
  • Koln are relegated. A recent 2-2 v 2nd Schalke at home showed their fighting spirit. I think we should expect Bayern to continue their wins when they don't need points and enter the match on that basis. Bayern have conceded first of late a couple of times and gone on to win.

14:30 - Hannover v Hertha Berlin - 2.74 Hertha

  • A point will do for Hannover from their remaining 2 matches in order to ensure Bundesliga survival.
  • only 1 win in 9 matches for Hannover is poor stuff. They play a Hertha with only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • The market cannot split the teams.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Freiburg - 1.87 Mgladbach

  • Freiburg need points. Mgladbach are safe. The market does not see any sentimentality here.
  • 6 defeats, a draw and a win for Freiburg recently is perhaps the reason.
  • Only Leverkusen and Dortmund have beaten Mgladbach in the last 9 matches.
  • On form, you have to side with the home team.
  • Mgladbach at home are unbeaten v 8th and lower. Freiburg have only that single away win.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg - 1.65 Leipzig

  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • A top 4 spot is available for Leipzig.
  • Wolfsburg simply must win their remaining 2 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 18 matches for the Wolf. They are bottom 3 because of their accumulation of draws this season.
  • 3 defeats in 4 for Leipzig includes a loss v Mainz.
  • Leipzig have scored in their last 16 home matches. Leipzig have scored and conceded v bottom 4 home and away and Wolf as we know are bottom 3.
  • This is another match with 2 angles. FORM ANGLE - Leipzig may concede but not lose based on home form. WEST BROM ANGLE - the Wolf may 'do a West Brom' and get the win they require. They simply MUST WIN! Backed into the corner. No other course of action. Must win.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Hoffenheim - 2.12 Hoffenheim

  • The Hoff have a chance at a top 4 spot. Stuttgart gain little by winning their remaining 2 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches for Dortmund. 6 wins and 3 draws for Hoffenheim recently. 2 sides in good recent form.
  • Hoff have scored in their last 17 matches so do expect a goal based on this.
  • Stuttgart have had 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home so note that.
  • Stuttgart lost at home v 1st, 2nd and 5th. The Hoff have conceded 2 goals at least in all aways v top 6 and all bar 1 match away v 9th and higher.
  • The Hoff have the need more so than Stuttgart. Strictly on form, the Hoff are likely to score (last 17) and concede (2+ goals in all bar 1 match v 9th and higher) so take on any 0-0.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Leverkusen - 1.92 Leverkusen

  • 1-0 Leverkusen last head to head.
  • Werder Bremen are safe from relegation. Leverkusen are 5th. A top 4 berth I suppose is the carrot.
  • Werder have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. Werder are unbeaten in 11 home matches. Leverkusen lost their last 2 matches.
  • Werder are unbeaten at home v 3rd-8th inclusive. Leverkusen have only 2 wins away v 10th and lower.
  • A dead rubber of sorts. If playing to form, I could see both teams score today and Werder be more competitive than their quote. Lay the first team to score.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - AC Milan v Verona - 1.17 AC Milan

  • 3-0 Verona last time these 2 met.
  • 3 matches remain this season. Verona can still save their season but need 100% wins now and other matches to go their way.
  • Milan's season is over and you can see that from recent results. Put it this way, I have seen far stronger 1.17 shots!
  • Milan have only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower. 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 (v Benevento) for Milan at home recently.
  • 7 losses in 8 for Verona. They are pants. But I am going to lay Milan at 1.18 odds right off the bat (better value if they score first of course). Unlikely Verona have the nouse to win but they did beat Milan earlier this season and Milan cocked up v Benevento at 1.1 odds!!

19:45 - Juventus v Bologna - 1.16 Juventus

Banker bet

  • 0-3 Juve last head to head.
  • Simply put, a win nails the title for the Old Lady.
  • Bologna are not quite safe from harm but as near as damn it. Chievo need to win every single match with Bologna losing every single match for Bologna to go down.
  • 100% wins for Juve at home v 6th and lower (Bologna are 12th). Bologna have 8 losses and a draw away v top 10 teams.
  • Expect a Juventus win and a title celebration. Take on any Bologna lead.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

14:00 - Karabukspor v Konyaspor - 1.26 Konyaspor

  • 3-0 and 2-0 Konyaspor last 2 head to heads.
  • 3 matches left of the Turkish League.
  • Karabukspor are down with only 12 points.
  • Konyaspor are on the same points as 3rd bottom so a win is a must here.
  • 11 consecutive defeats for Karabukspor has Konyaspor thanking their lucky stars they are meeting such a poor side at such a critical time.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 for Konyaspor latest is a good sign but 2 0-0's and a 2-1 loss away last 3 is not. 0-0 will not do for them.
  • You feel 0-0 is worst case scenario for Konyaspor.
  • Only 1 away win for Konyaspor suggests we keep faith in needs must over away form.

17:00 - Trabzonspor v Kasimpasa - 1.4 Trabzonspor

  • Kasimpasa can be caught up in the relegation zone but it will require a lot of bad luck. I think they are safe.
  • Trabzonspor cannot really impact the top 4 as the points gap is 13 with 3 matches remaining. Their only remaining goal must be to retain 5th spot and any European connotations that may bring.
  • 7 wins and  a 1-6 and 3-4 loss at home v 8th and lower for Trabzonspor sees them generally scoring 2+ (Kasimpasa are 9th).
  • 2-4-2-0-2-3 goals conceded by Kasimpasa away v top 8 sides franks the potential for Trab to score 2+ goals as the form suggests.
  • 20 of 28 Trab goals at home were scored 2nd half so watch out if 0-0 or 0-1 and take on those for the 2nd half.
  • On form we expect a Trab 2 goal haul at least today if they are motivated enough to fight for 5th place.

17:00 - Alanyaspor v Osmanlispor - 1.94 Alanyaspor

  • This is a true relegation six pointer and may be a match to avoid, such is its importance.
  • Osmanlispor have only 2 losses in 9 , so despite a bottom 3 berth, they are really battling for survival.
  • Alanyaspor have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Alanyaspor have scored in their last 15 at home so expectation is for at least a goal from them.
  • Osmanlispor have yet to beat a side above them in the league away and Alan are above them.
  • Do remember that this is a relegation six pointer so may bring unpredictability. Strictly on form, Alanyaspor could score and concede today without losing. Osmanlispor's away form certainly prompts us to expect this of Alan.