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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 4, 2017

See you at delayreacttrade.com for a live chat at 14:30 for the German Bundesliga. The Curse of the Champions League may be in effect today so make sure you know which teams have a Champions League match this week (Napoli, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Benfica, Barcelona, PSG).
Note in particular teams playing away from home (Bayern, Arsenal, Napoli, Real Madrid, Benfica for instance). Teams do tend to sacrifice a league result in order to ensure they are 100% for a Champions League match. We shall see how strong the Curse of the Champions League is (Barca, note, have lost to Celta Vigo 3 times in recent head to heads - recipe for an upset today?).

12:00 - Leganes v Granada - 1.79 Leganes

  • 0-1 Leganes in the last head to head in the Spanish La Liga.

Leganes 100% stats

  • Because of the workload I am researching before knowing the result of the 28th Feb match.
  • Have beaten the bottom 2 in 2 matches played 0-1 and 2-0.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Leganes other stats

  • All wins bar 1 this season have come v teams 17th and lower (Leganes are 16th and Granada 19th).

Granada 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • No away clean sheet.
  • Not met the bottom 5 away this season (where Leganes reside).

Granada other stats

  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Have led twice at halftime away and as we know not won an away match.
  • Draws v 13th, 14th, 15th away and 17th, 18th, 20th at home.
  • Scored and conceded away in all matches v 8th-15th.

Conclusions

  • Clash of the D'ohtans. A slight unknown here as Granada are yet to meet the bottom 5 away. Leganes tend to beat the strugglers this season and on that basis are favoured today.
  • I would lay Granada if Granada scored first given so many draws v bottom sides. Granada do tend to score and concede away.

12:30 - Man Utd v Bournemouth - 1.28 Man Utd

  • 2 3-1 wins for Man Utd in the last 2 head to heads in the Premiership.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower (Bournemouth are 14th).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower).
  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Man Utd other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Undefeated in 11 at home and 16 overall.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 home and away v teams 13th and lower.

Bournemouth 100% stats

  • Have lost away to all top 9 teams.
  • 3+ goals conceded away v top 7 teams.
  • No away 0-0.

Bournemouth other stats

  • In 15 of the last 17 matches, at least one team has scored 2 goals or more.

Conclusions

  • Man Utd are expected to score 2 goals, could even stretch to 3 today. Bournemouth cannot keep that back door closed and United are in the sort of form to make them pay.
  • Let's hope Bournemouth can add to the scoring and indeed score first so we can get a straightforward angle into the match and back United if losing in-play.
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market only based on goal expectation rather than stats.

14:00 - Roma v Napoli - 2.18 Roma

  • Roma are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads, winning 3 of those matches, 2 of those wins were only 1-0.

Roma 100% stats

  • 2nd v 3rd in Italian Seria A.
  • All wins at home.

Roma other stats

  • Failed to score on only 3 matches.
  • 2 goals scored at least in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Not met the top 5 at home so note that.
  • 24 of 36 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 11/12 at home.

Napoli 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 4 home and away.

Napoli other stats

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • At least one team has scored 2 goals in 11 of their last 12 matches.

Conclusions

  • 100% win record at home v roma BUT please note that they are yet to meet the top 5.
  • Looking at Napoli's record v the top 4, there is a suggestion that we side with Roma today not to lose.
  • I am sorry that I cannot be more committal here. I am put off by the lack of home form v top 5 teams which we expect to be tighter matches.

14:30 - Dortmund v Leverkusen - 1.56 Dortmund

  • A draw, 2 Dortmund wins and a Leverkusen win in the last 3 German Bundesliga head to heads.

Dortmund 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Dortmund other stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-0 wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 6 1-0 wins at halftime at home.

Leverkusen 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • 2-1 defeats (3) and a 1-1 v top 10 teams away.

Leverkusen other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Opponents have scored first in 8/10 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I think both teams will score today without Leverkusen winning. Their 2-1 defeats v top 10 teams away is a recurring theme which suggests Leverkusen leading here in this match can see us lay them.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Dortmund lead 1-0 so often at home.

14:30 - Mainz v Wolfsburg - 2.36 Mainz

  • 1-1 and 0-0 in the 2016 German Bundesliga head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 14th in the league.

Mainz 100% stats

  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in home matches v 8th and lower.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Mainz other stats

  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive 2-0 scorelines.
  • 4 wins and a loss at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Scored first in 7/11 home matches.

Wolfsburg other stats

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • All 3 wins away came v 9th, 10th and 12th. Guess who they play today? 11th.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Tough to read this match. I do like the Mainz stat at home v teams below them in the league, where they tend to win and score 2+ goals. Faith in that stat today?

14:30 - FC Koln v Bayern Munich - 1.49 Bayern

  • 0-1 Bayern and 1-1 in the last 2 german Bundesliga head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 1st in the German Bundesliga.
  • Bayern have a Champions League match v Arsenal on 7th March.

FC Koln 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side and 2 1-1 draws v top 2 teams at home.

FC Koln other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • 0-1-1-1-1 scored in their last 5 home matches.

Bayern Munich 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten the 3 top 6 teams they have played away.

Bayern Munich other stats

  • Only 1 loss.
  • That was the only match in which they failed to score.
  • Scored 8 goals away in the last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Champions League curse for Bayern Munich? FC Koln could nick a 1-1 draw at their best today so prepare for a possible toughie for Bayern (that said after 8 home goals!!).
  • Bayern do tend to find a goal and faith in that fact should remain with us to the death! (1-1 Hertha anyone - last kick of the match - Fergie time!).

14:30 - Werder Bremen v SV Darmstadt - 1.7 Werder Bremen

  • 4-4. 2-1 Darmstadt, 2-2, 2-2 - ahh it's Werder Bremen in head to heads in the Bundesliga.
  • This is 15th v 18th so these 2 are struggling.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • Conceded in all home matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league, albeit scoring and conceding as usually and seeing 2 2-2 scorelines.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins came away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets and failed to score only twice naturally lends itself to both teams scoring.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • 8 home matches have seen a 2-1 scoreline.

Darmstadt 100% stats

  • All points have been earned at home.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not played bottom 5 away yet so little to gauge performance against fellow strugglers.

Conclusions

  • You should know these verbatim by now. Both teams to score and a goal at least before halftime for Werder Bremen.
  • Werder will fancy making it 3 in a row today given Darmstadt points are all earned at home. Darmstadt have scored away from home, even 2 goals once and ended up losing.
  • Werder could even lead at halftime if we expect a goal before halftime and Darmstadt continue not to lead an away match at halftime.

15:00 - Swansea v Burnley - 1.99 Swansea

  • 2 consecutive 0-1 Swansea wins in head to heads.

Swansea 100% stats

  • No home win v top 12 teams, Burnley are 11th.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Swansea other stats

  • In 19 of the last 21 matches, at least one team has scored 2 goals at least, and in 13 matches, at least one team scored at least 3 goals.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • No draw in 8 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 77% over 2.5 goals.
  • 10 goals conceded at home last 15 mins of matches.

Burnley 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Burnley other stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Burnley normally lose away but ended that with a 1-1 draw last away match.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 away clean sheet.
  • 5 of 6 clean sheets away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • As I argued last week, Burnley have a chance of getting a positive result v a team such as Swansea, despite Burnley's dire away record. Indeed last week they drew 1-1 and ended a poor losing run away.
  • Swansea have an amazing record with at least one team scoring 2/3 goals consistently. If this was true, then note that if 0-0 or 1-0/0-1 at halftime. Last week, I backed 2-1/1-2 and that is a possibility here.
  • Logically Burnley are layable away but as I say Swansea are where they are not because of their consistency. Burnley may get a 2nd consecutive unbeaten away match.

15:00 - Stoke v Middlesbrough - 2.02 Stoke

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.

Stoke 100% stats

  • All Stoke home wins came at home v teams below them in the league (Stoke are 10th to Boro's 17th).
  • No match with exactly 3 goals.

Stoke other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.

Middlesbrough 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 13 team home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in any match home or away v 13th and higher.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches.

Middlesbrough other stats

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • No win in 12 away matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • If Boro cannot score 2 goals v a top 13 side, they must be layed if opening the scoring today.
  • Stoke are highly likely not to lose today. Their wins at home congregate v teams below them in the league.

15:00 - Watford v Southampton - 2.26 Southampton

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met saw a late Watford red card.
  • 12th v 13th in the Premiership.

Watford 100% stats

  • Conceded in all home matches v top 15 sides.

Watford other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of 10 matches v top 15 teams at home.

Southampton 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Southampton other stats

  • 6 losses in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v top 12 teams.

Conclusions

  • Southampton have only 1 away win v top 12 and Watford tend to score and concede v top 15 teams at home.
  • Lay the first goalscoring team in a match which does not greatly appeal.

15:00 - Leicester v Hull - 1.9 Leicester

  • 2-1 Hull in the last head to head in the Premiership.

Leicester 100% stats

  • New manager /caretaker manager syndrome. As we saw in Leicester's last match, surprises can occur!
  • 15th now in the league after a surprise win v Liverpool.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league (15th v 19th today).

Leicester other stats

  • 5 defeats without scoring ended with a 3-1 v Liverpool.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.

Hull City 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 14 teams away.

Hull City other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 24 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 12 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only led once at halftime away.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away.
  • 18 of 28 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Still a question mark around reading Leicester's form now the Great Bard, Mr Shakespeare, seems to have made an instant impact. Forsooth, Leicester struck thrice v Liverpool.
  • Hull's form away is poor and Leicester could continue that mini-revival today. Hull rarely score 2 goals away so lay Hull if Hull score first.

15:00 - West Brom v C Palace - 2.18 West Brom

  • 3-2 West Brom and 0-1 West Brom in the last 2 head to heads.

West Brom 100% stats

  • 8th v 18th in the Premiership. West Brom are unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league, winning 8 and drawing 1 match. Strong form.

West Brom other stats

  • Only 4 losses in 16 matches were v Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham.
  • 7 wins in 8 home matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v teams above them in the league.

Crystal Palace 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten any top 9 team home and away.
  • Not beaten any top 12 team away from home.

Crystal Palace other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 17 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We are in a managerial transformation for Palace and Big Sam's thumbprint is on recent matches. 0-1 loss to Everton (87th min goal), 0-2 win v Bournemouth, 0-4 loss v Sunderland, 1-0 loss v Stoke, 1-0 win v Boro.
  • Bar the Sunderland match, matches have been very tight.
  • Strictly on form, West Brom will not lose today. They tend to beat teams below them in the league at home. They are in superb form. It takes the Big Guns to beat West Brom and Palace is not that! We might see the Big Sam tight defence but an eventual, perhaps 2nd half, concession.

15:15 - Eibar v Real Madrid - 1.47 Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid tend to win head to heads. It was 1-1 the last time these 2 met in the Spanish La Liga.

Eibar 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 4 team home or away.

Eibar other stats

  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 9 matches.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in all matches.
  • Unbeaten v 4th to 12th home and away - Eibar are 7th.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 1-0/0-1.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Have been great in the last 3 matches from a trading perspective IF we keep faith in Real Madrid.
  • At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in 16 of the last 17 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches.

Conclusions

  • At least one team is likely to score 2 goals today and it is likely to be real Madrid who have been excellent as a trading vehicle. Check out their last 3 matches' scorelines.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • We might see some fun and games today as Real Madrid has a Champions League match v Napoli on the 7th March.
  • Eibar should not be winning today, as long as the curse of the Champions League does not kick in.

17:00 - Sampdoria v Pescara - 1.65 Sampdoria

  • 1-1 in the most recent Italian Seria A head to head.

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • All draws v bottom 3 - 1-1. Pescara are bottom of the league.
  • Scored and conceded at home v bottom 6.

Sampdoria other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 9 goals scored at home in the last 15 mins of matches.

Pescara 100% stats

  • No win at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v top 11.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Not scored in the first half away.
  • Conceded in all away matches.

Pescara other stats

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 14 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay Pescara if Pescara score first. Worst came for Samp at home would tend to be 1-1.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Do note that Samp score late goals at home if they are losing or haven't scored coming to the 75th minute.

17:30 - Liverpool v Arsenal - 2.18 Liverpool

  • 3-3 and 3-4 Liverpool in the last 2 Premiership head to heads.
  • The odds are very strange here!

Liverpool 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v the top 10.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal at home v top 8 teams.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Liverpool other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches was v Tottenham. What a Jekyll and Hyde side.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 home matches.
  • Only 1 home 0-0.

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 7 side away, scoring in each match, 3 defeats and a loss.
  • Not lost to nil.

Arsenal other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches and last 11 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of 8 matches v top 12 teams away from home.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals away.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 11 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool are in poor form, but then they beat Tottenham at home. Is this why they are favourite today? That, and Arsenal scoring and conceding and not winning away v top 7 sides.
  • Strictly on form, therefore, Arsenal should be layed if Arsenal score first.

 19:45 - Barcelona v Celta Vigo - 1.18 Barcelona

  • Celta have won 3 of the last 5 head to heads, albeit the last 2 head to head wins came with home advantage.
  • Barcelona play PSG in the Champions League on 9th March 2017 and given Celta's achievements in head to heads, we might see a rather interesting match if Barcelona are unduly distracted.

Barcelona 100% stats

  • Scored in all home matches v top 14 teams.
  • Not lost to nil.

Barcelona other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • 9 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in those 9 wins.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Led at halftime in 8/12 at home.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 8 away.
  • Beat Barca 4-3 at home.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 defeats away were by a single goal.
  • 15 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Beware the curse of the Champions League, particularly with an underdog with a good record in head to heads!
  • From now on, I will assume Barca will play to their form! Barcelona have failed to score only once so expect them to score.
  • Celta find the top 8 too tough. They are expected to lose again today without home advantage (won the last 2 head to heads at Celta).
  • This should be an interesting match. Prepare for potential CL curse!

19:45 - AC Milan v Chievo - 1.64 AC Milan

  • 0-0, Milan win, 0-0 Milan win is the pattern currently in head to heads in Italian Seria A.
  • This is 7th v 11th.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • No draw at home v teams below them in the league.

AC Milan other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost one home match at halftime.

Chievo 100% stats

  • No draw away v teams above them in the league (5 losses and a win).
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Chievo other stats

  • Last 5 defeats saw them conceding 3 goals at least.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Only away draw was a 0-0.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • On form Chievo are more likely to lose v top 9 teams so enter this match with Milan in mind.