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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Norwich v Brighton - 2.3 Brighton

  • A relegation six pointer and no research will be worth doing. This is about who performs on the day.

15:00 - Leicester v Crystal Palace - 1.6 Leicester

Leicester - 3rd

  • 2 draws and a loss for Leicester post lockdown. Poor stuff.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 1st, 2nd and 14th.
  • 0-2 win v Palace earlier.
  • 21 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Palace - 12th

  • 4 wins to nil ended with losses v Liverpool and Burnley.
  • 2 wins to nil away recently came v relegation threatened sides.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away. 2+ goals conceded in all of those matches.

Conclusions

  • Palace have a very poor record v the top 4, conceding 2 goals consistently. Do you trust Leicester? No win in 3 matches post-lockdown.
  • Leicester do score a high % of goals at home 2nd half.

15:00 - Man Utd v Bournemouth - 1.18 Man Utd

  • United are bang in there for a top 4 berth and must take advantage of Chelsea's loss v West Ham mid-week.
  • Must-win territory (again) for Bournemouth.

Man Utd - 5th

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower. 1-0 loss v Bournemouth earlier.

Bournemouth - 19th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • In 6 of those matches, Bournemouth conceded 2 goals at least.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • conceded last 15 matches.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v the top 13.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, you're with Man Utd here, unbeaten at home v 13th and lower. 3 clean sheets recently too.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats for Bournemouth. They must win. I cannot see a surprise but this is the time of the season for surprises. Ask Chelsea (3-2 loss v West Ham).

17:30 - Wolves v Arsenal - 2.2 Wolves

  • 6th v 7th. Arsenal are 6 points adrift of Wolves and other top 4 candidates. This match is therefore a win for Arsenal.
  • A win for Wolves could see them top 4 pending other results.
  • 5 wins in 6 for Wolves.
  • 7 clean sheets in 8 for Wolves.
  • Notably Wolves have only 1 win at home v the top 15. 1-1 last time these 2 met.
  • 16 of 22 goals scored by Wolves at home came 2nd half.
  • Arsenal are famously poor away, no win v the top 12.
  • 12/17 goals scored away by Arsenal came 2nd half.
  • Angles? Both sides have a poor record v the top 10 sides. Wolves are in the best recent form and are keeping clean sheets consistently. Will that blunt Arsenal?
  • Do watch out for 2nd half goals for both sides if a barren first half.

20:00 - Chelsea v Watford - 1.42 Chelsea

Chelsea - 4th

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3-2 loss v West Ham latest.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6.
  • 1-2 win v Watford earlier.
  • 3 losses v 14th and lower at home saw Chelsea fail to score.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Watford - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 10 was....v Liverpool.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Not beaten top 18 away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides need points. Chelsea to consolidate top 4. Watford to put 4 points between them and relegation.
  • I cannot see Chelsea cocking up in consecutive matches. Their 2 goals a game recently should put the Hornets to bed.

SPANISH LA LIGA

16:00 - Celta Vigo v Betis - 2.35 Celta

Celta Vigo - 17th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches. 4th bottom and points required.
  • 6-2 goals scored last 2 home matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, and only 2 at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower. 2-1 loss v Betis earlier.

Betis - 13th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • As is typical of the odds, we can make as equal an argument for both sides, unbeaten v bottom 3rd sides. I do remember Celta Vigo's 6 recent clean sheets and scoring 8 goals in 2 matches. Watch out if they click.

18:30 - Valladolid v Alaves - 2.55 Valladolid


21:00 - Granada v Valencia - 2.45 Valencia


ITALIAN SERIA A

16:15 - Juventus v Torino - 1.27 Juventus

  • Turin derby and I think just a look at head to heads will provide the angles today.
  • 0-1 Juve, 0-1 Juve, 1-1 draw home Juve, 0-1 Juve in head to heads.
  • I don't focus too much on derbies as Torino could lift their game. We expect the home win but expect the unexpected too.

18:30 - Sassuolo v Lecce - 1.5 Sassuolo

Sassuolo - 12th

  • 3-3, 3-3, 1-3 win recently.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • 3-0 win, 3-0 win v bottom 2 at home.

Lecce - 18th

  • 5 losses conceding 4-7-4-4-2 goals.
  • 2 consecutive 4-0 away defeats.
  • Have beaten 13th and 14th away.

Conclusions

  • Looks like Lecce will be far too generous to a Sassuolo averaging 3 goals a game recently.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in expectation for goals.

20:45 - Lazio v AC Milan - 2.45 Lazio

  • Lazio could still win the title. AC Milan need points to get into the top 6.
  • Only 1 loss since end of September for Lazio.
  • No defeat 15 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in last 6 matches for Lazio.
  • 1-2 win v AC Milan last time these 2 met.
  • AC Milan have win, win, draw post lockdown, scoring 4-2-2 goals.
  • All defeats though for AC Milan away v top 5 and v top 4 home and away.
  • Angles? Seasonal form as you with Lazio but the market cannot discount either side - 2.45 the fav.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:15 - Portimonense v Guimaraes - 2.15 Guimaraes

Portimonense - 17th

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches. 2 consecutive wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Only wins home and away v the top 10 came v one team - Famalicao. 2-0 loss v Guimaraes earlier.

Guimaraes - 7th

  • Only 1 win in 5 came last match.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Loss away recently.
  • Scored last 10 and last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Portimonense have only beaten 1 top 10 side home and away. Guimaraes are unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.
  • BUT remember we are at the business end of the season and Portimonense are putting together a solid run, unbeaten in 5, and unbeaten in 5 at home. So watch for them this evening. On seasonal form, though, Guimaraes should not lose.

21:15 - Benfica v Boavista - 1.28 Benfica

Benfica - 2nd

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches sees Benfica totally unreliable and trying very hard to lose the title.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • 2-1-4-2 goals conceded last 4 matches.
  • 1-1 v 8th and 3-4 loss v 10th and play 9th today.
  • 20 of 31 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Boavista - 9th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches, 2 were 1-0 and one v Braga.
  • 0-0-1-1-0-1-1-0 goals scored away recently. 3 of those were 0-1 wins.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 2 this season.

Conclusions

  • Benfica are managed by Arthur Daley i.e. we cannot trust them. Boavista's 3/3 losses v the top 2 suggests Benfica should do something.
  • Boavista, if they win away, are likely to win 0-1 away. This may bring in the cover of 0-1 and back of Benfica +1 but please use in-play stats.

21:30 - Braga v Aves - 1.17 Braga

Braga - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 5 post lockdown.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 at home though was a 0-1 v Boavista.
  • 3-3 scored last 2 matches.
  • 3/3 wins v bottom 4 at home.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Aves - 18th

  • Failed to score last 6.
  • 7 defeats in 8. Kept Porto to 0-0.
  • Conceded last 14 away.

Conclusions

  • Braga could score 3 goals today....and win. Aves 14 points only all season, failing to score last 6 and in a world of trouble. Braga have been poor post-lockdown but have goals in them as I note above. Aves did keep Porto to a 0-0 for you conspiracy theorists.....back 0-0 pre match and get the prayer mat out.
  • Usual rules apply for 1.17 shots which I will highlight in the DRT review/preview video.

BELARUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - BATE Borisov v Energetik - 1.45 BATE Borisov

BATE Borisov - 1st

  • Only 3 losses, one came last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • v the top 7 at home, 2-2. 3-1 win, 0-0, 0-2 loss.
  • 3-1 loss v Energetik in head to heads.

Energetik

  • Only 1 win in 5.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 5, without scoring.

Conclusions

  • I expect BATE to win, Energetik keep losing to nil v the top 5 and play 1st today.