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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 5, 2017

Nice to be back and live chatting last night with a real d-day profit from a Dunkerque Desmond. Monaco were excellent, losing twice and giving us another Desmond. Goals in them there principalities this season. Today the conclusions are based on last year's form. The assumption (perhaps wrongly) is that teams will play as they did last year. This may be flawed and does not account for managerial changes, players in and out and so forth and a clean slate for a new season.
As you know by now, in-play stats are king at this early stage of the season, as form is not with us.
Just a note that I would not ordinarily trade the English Championship. Why make life difficult? It is one of the most competitive leagues in Europe. I will be tweeting from 15:00 which sees the start of all of the English Leagues. For early starters, The Chinese Super League sees a couple of readable matches and Celtic also kick off at lunchtime.

THE CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Guizhou HF Zhicheng v Chongqing Lifan - 2.02 Guizhou

  • 2-1 Lifan in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 8th in the Chinese Super League.

Guizhou

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 home wins v 3rd and 7th.

Lifan

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 were wins for Lifan.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 matches away v top 14.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Lifan for me are strictly favoured here given their ability to score 2 goals of late against a home side who are conceding 2 goals recently in home matches.
  • Both sides have only 3 clean sheets all season so both teams could score, with my bias towards the away side not losing.
  • 1st goal: GZ Zhicheng have conceded first in 6/9 home matches while Chongqing have scored first in 7/11 away matches.
  • GZ Zhicheng have lost the first half in 5/9 home matches.

12:35 - Guangzhou FC v Tianjin Elion - 1.26 Guang

  • 5 consecutive wins to nil for Guangzhou in head to heads, scoring 2 goals at least.
  • this is 1st v 15th in the Chinese Super League.
  • This looks as straightforward as they come. Guangzhou has scored 2 goals at least in every home match, and only drawn 1 match, the other wins. Do note their 2-1's v 13th and 14th.
  • Tianjin has lost every home and away match v top 7 sides this season. They failed to score in the 4 matches v top 7 away.
  • Asian handicap: Guangzhou have won by two or more goals in 13/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Tianjin Teda have lost the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Guangzhou have won the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

12:35 - Beijing Guoan v Shandong Luneng - 2.1 Beijing

  • Shandong has won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 4th in the Chinese Super League.

Beijing Guoan

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Did beat 1st at home but score draws v 3rd and 6th and a loss v 7th suggests potential struggles against the top sides.

Shandong

  • Only 4 defeats all season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Lost 2-1 away v 1st and 2nd.

Conclusions

  • We should expect at least a goal from Shandong today...surely? Both sides struggle against the top sides, Beijing albeit unbeaten v top 6, has 2 score draws. Shandong only met top 2 away and lost 2-1.
  • An interesting match with contradictory stats. i.e Beijing 5 clean sheets in 7, Shandong scoring 2 goals in 5 of their last 7.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Beijing Guo'an home matches against top-six teams and in 11/13 Shandong away matches against top-six teams.
  • Shandong have conceded first in 9/12 away matches against top-six teams.

12:35 - Hebei CFFC v Yanbian Funde - 1.22 Hebei

  • The home team has tended to go unbeaten in head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 16th (and bottom) of the Chinese Super League.

Hebei

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • No win in 3 at home.
  • No draw at home v teams below them in the league sees 5 wins and 2 losses.

Funde

  • 8 defeats in 9 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Funde should concede at some point. They may even score but should not win. Hebei are in poor immediate form but have more wins than defeats at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 1st goal: Hebei CFFC have scored first in 5/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while YB Changbaishan have lost 8/9 away matches against top-half teams.
  • YB Changbaishan have had L/L double results in 7/9 away matches against top-half teams.

12:35 - Jiangsu Suning v Henan - 1.75 Jiangsu

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met in the league.
  • This is 13th v 12th in the Chinese Super League.

Jiangsu Suning

  • 2 consecutive wins but only 3 wins all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • All losses at home v 10th and higher.

Henan

  • Only 4 wins but won their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • No away draw.
  • Beat 14th 1-2 away.

Conclusions

  • These 2 win infrequently but have suddenly put together a winning run. These 2 look like Del Boy teams to me. Untrustworthy.
  • 1st goal: Jiangsu have scored first in 10/17 home matches while Henan have lost 13/17 away matches.
  • There have been +1.5 goals in 11/17 Henan away matches against bottom-six teams.

12:35 - Shanghai Shenhua v Changchun Yatai - 1.74 Shanghai

  • 2-3 Shenhua the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 9th v 10th in the Chinese Super League.

Shanghai Shenhua

  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded 2 + goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • All losses at home have come v top 5 teams.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Yatai

  • 2 consecutive losses ends a run of 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 away draw and only 2 away wins.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. Yatai most certainly should be conceding.
  • Note the strong both teams to score patterns for both sides. I would be happier with Yatai scoring first and then laying them if they do.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Shanghai S home matches against bottom-half teams and +3.5 goals in 7/10 Shanghai S home matches.
  • Changchun have conceded first in 12/18 away matches.

THE ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Fulham v Norwich City - 2.08 Fulham

  • 2-2 and 1-3 Fulham in the 2 head to heads last year.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Fulham home matches and +2.5 goals in 15/20 Norwich away matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Fulham home matches.

15:00 - QPR v Reading - 2.52 QPR

  • 0-1 QPR, 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 QPR in the last 4 head to heads.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 QPR home matches and in 10/13 Reading away matches.
  • Reading have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Wolves v Middlesbrough - 2.74 Wolves

  • No recent head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Wolves home matches against relegated teams.
  • Relegated teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of away matches against bottom-half teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -1.5 goals in 5/9 Wolves home matches against relegated teams.

15:00 - Ipswich Town v Birmingham - 2.44 Ipswich

  • The home side has tend to remained unbeaten in recent head to heads. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at Ipswich.
  • 1st half outcome: Ipswich have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Birmingham away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Ipswich home matches.

15:00 - Preston v Sheffield Wednesday - 2.62 Sheff

  • 2-1 Sheff, 1-1 at Preston last 2 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 14/19 Sheffield Wed away matches and they have drawn the first half in 5/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Preston have won 6/10 home matches.

15:00 - Sheffield United v Brentford - 2.24 Sheff

  • No recent head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Brentford have won 5/8 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches.
  • Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-half teams since 2012-13.

15:00 - Bristol City v Barnsley - 1.86 Bristol City

  • 2-2, 2-2, 2-2, 3-2 Bristol City in the last 4 head to heads. Something to work with? If so, then back 2-2 pre match.
  • Match outcome: Bristol City have won 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Barnsley away matches against bottom-half teams.

15:00 - Burton Albion v Cardiff City - 2.52 Cardiff

  • The home side won the head to heads last year.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Burton home matches while Cardiff have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Burton have conceded first in 11/14 home matches.

17:30 - Aston Villa v Hull City - 2.06 Aston Villa

  • No recent head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Aston Villa home matches.
  • Relegated teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • Aston Villa have scored first in 10/15 home matches.

THE SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE (SPL)

12:30 - Celtic v Hearts - 1.22 Celtic

  • Celtic won to nil in all 2017 head to heads.
  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 18/20 home matches while Hearts have lost 9/11 away matches.
  • Celtic have won by two or more goals in 13/20 home matches.

15:00 - Dundee v Ross Co - 2.58 Dundee

  • 2-1 Ross and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Dundee home matches against top-half teams.
  • Ross County have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

15:00 - Hibernian v Partick - 1.85 Hibernian

  • No head to heads since 2014.
  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Partick Th. away matches against promoted teams.
  • Partick Th. have lost 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v St Johnstone - 2.72 St Johnstone

  • The home side failed to score in the last 3 head to heads - the home side for 2 matches was St Johnstone.
  • HT/FT: St Johnstone have had W/W double results in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won 10/13 such matches.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 5/8 Kilmarnock home matches against top half non-Big One teams.

THE SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

15:00 - Halmstads v Jonkopings Sodra - 2.4 Halmstads

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 12th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

Halmstads

  • Only win of the season was first match of the season.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches may signal a revival of sorts.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Sodra

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

  • 2 poor sides. Slight favour Sodra on the basis that they are unbeaten v teams below them in the league.
  • Halmstads could be layed if scoring first.
  • -1.5 goals: There have been -1.5 goals in 4/8 Halmstads BK home matches and -2.5 goals in 5/8 Halmstads BK home matches.
  • Jonkopings have conceded first in 13/20 away matches.

17:00 - Orebro v Elfsborg - 2.62 Orebro

  • Elfsborg won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 7th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • Match outcome: IF Elfsborg have drawn 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/9 such matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Orebro home matches.

Orebro

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Losses at home only v 2nd and 13th.

Elfsborg

  • 2 consecutive losses ended a run of 7 matches unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower, albeit 3 1-1 draws in 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. I would consider backing the correct scores 2-1 and 1-2 together. Why? I like Elfsborg's 1-1 record v 10th and lower away as well as the strong both teams to score patterns.
  • If we are lucky enough to see 1-1 (as I did with Galway last night), we will see the 2-1 and 1-2 correct score odds both drop. If the market is liquid enough, this normally allows for a profitable trade.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Paris St-G v Amiens - 1.12 PSG

  • Newly promoted Amiens takes on unbeaten at home last year PSG who have a new recruit called Neymar.
  • PSG only conceded 2 goals once at home last year so will dominate.
  • Amiens are an unknown quantity.
  • Match outcome: Paris St-G have won 8/8 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have lost 55% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Paris St-G have had W/W double results in 6/8 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Last season promoted sides won only 7 of 57 matches away from home. Amiens top scorer transferred to Fulham.

19:00 - Metz v Guingamp - 2.76 Guingamp

  • 2-2 and 1-0 Guingamp last season.
  • 1st goal: Metz have scored first in 9/13 home matches while Guingamp have lost the first half in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Guingamp have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Metz worst goal difference in the league last season. Were the favourites for the drop but survived.
  • 58% of Metz matches last year had 3 goals or more in them.
  • Guingamp's solid 10th place last season down largely to home form.

19:00 - St Etienne v Nice - 2.32 St Etienne

  • St Etienne last season had a strong second half bent. Note that if 0-0 at halftime in their matches this season.
  • New manager for St Etienne this season.
  • 9 draws at home last season for St Etienne was a concern. St Etienne only won 2 of their last 13 matches last season. Onward and upward under a new manager?
  • A great 3rd spot for Nice sees Champions League football. Last season Nice conceded first in 13 of their last 18 matches yet only lost 3 of those. Note this. Nice could be a side to rely upon if conceding first (against the right opponents and with the right in-play stats).
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Saint-Etienne home matches against top-six teams while Nice have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against top-half teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 12/19 Nice away matches.

19:00 - Lyon v Strasbourg - 1.42 Lyon

  • No head to heads tells us Strasbourg are newly promoted.
  • 2nd, 2nd, 4th for Lyon in the last 3 season. Much is expected of them this season. Lyon averaged 2 goals a game last season. They conceded a whopping 48 times too!
  • Lacassette - the player we could usually rely upon to get Lyon out of the doo-doo, has gone to Arsenal. Gonalons has gone to Roma and Tolisso to Bayern. 3 big absentees. Memphis Depay is now at Lyon. What affect with the loss of quality have on the expected goals for Lyon?
  • Back to Back titles for Strasbourg.Look light up front with their top scorer going to Turkey.
  • Asian handicap: Lyon have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against promoted teams while promoted teams have conceded first in 59% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Promoted teams have lost 55% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.

19:00 - Troyes v Rennes - 2.8 Troyes

  • No recent head to heads.
  • Recent relegation from Ligue 1 for Troyes suggests struggles this season.Straight back up though.
  • Rennes has been plagued by draw-itis and a lack of fire power. They only scored 36 goals last season.
  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Rennes away matches. Rennes have conceded first in 16/20 away matches.

19:00 - Montpellier v Caen - 1.94 Montpellier

  • 3-2 and 0-2 Montpellier in the last 2 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 11/12 Rennes away matches. Rennes have conceded first in 16/20 away matches.
  • Montpellier just survived last season and in conceding 66 goals they need to tighten it up at the back.
  • Last season, Montpellier lost 13 away so they will be focussing on making their home a fortress. New manager too this season.
  • Caen survived by just the point last season.. A focus on surviving again for Caen it seems.

THE IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v St Patricks - 2.62 St Patricks

  • 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division.

Sligo Rovers

  • Only 1 win and 2 losses in their last 9 matches - yes a case of draw-itis.
  • 4 draws in 5 home matches, 1-0-1-1-1-1 scored by Sligo in recent home matches.
  • All draws v 9th and lower this season.
  • All 1-1 draws at that. A case of the Galways!

St Patricks

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-1 draws with 10th and 11th home and away this season.

Conclusions

  • 1-1 comes up in head to heads, in Sligo matches v 9th and lower this season and in St Patricks matches v 10th and 11th this season.
  • I would have to consider the 1-1 at the off and the possibility for laying the team which scores the first goal.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Sligo R. home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/10 St Patrick's away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • St Patrick's have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.