Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Besiktas were the boys last night. Research suggested 2 goals. 2-1 down at halftime and they scored an own goal too for Bursaspor. Late late equaliser Besiktas. The big profits are found at the end of matches. I hope there will be some today in the live chat.
See you for a live chat webinar at 14:30 today in time for the German Bundesliga. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2152993689227369731 is the link.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Burnley v Man City - 1.33 Man City (shortlist)

  • 4 consecutive Man City wins in head to heads.

Burnley

  • No win in 8 matches. 1-1 v Newcastle mid week.
  • A really tough set of home fixtures v Tottenham, Liverpool and Man Utd recently saw all defeats.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% defeats at home v top 6.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Man City

  • Continued with their 3 goals last match mid week.
  • Failed to score only 1 match.

Conclusions

  • It should be another win for Man City. Burnley's last 2 home losses were 1-2 and 0-1. They may offer resistance but tend to lose v top 6 teams

15:00 - Bournemouth v Stoke - 2.08 Bournemouth

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Bournemouth in the last 2 head to heads.

Bournemouth (10th)

  • Brilliant 0-3 win v Chelsea mid week continues the good run - unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 home wins.
  • 3-2-2-2-1-3 goals scored recently.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Stoke City (16th)

  • 3 matches in for Paul Lambert as manager.
  • 3-0 loss to Man Utd, 2-0 home win v Huddersfield and 0-0 v Watford.
  • Failed to score in 4/5 matches but Lambert has them tougher to beat last 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 matches into Paul Lambert's tenure is too small a sample to get a confident angle in. 2 consecutive clean sheets though.
  • Bournemouth are in excellent unbeaten form and that could continue today. 2/3 goals are possible unless......Stoke's new manager makes an instant difference. That is the niggle.

15:00 - Brighton v West Ham - 2.38 Brighton

  • 0-3 Brighton in the last head to head.

Brighton (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 14 matches was a 1-0 v Watford.
  • Poor scoring record. Last goal scored mid week was a penalty.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

West Ham (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win in recent aways.
  • I will recount my opinion on Moyes tactic v lesser lights.
  • 3 goals scored v Stoke; 2 v Newcastle; 3 v Bournemouth; 2 v West Brom; 4 v Huddersfield; 1 v Bournemouth and Palace.
  • I think that West Ham will be eying 2+ goals today. I note Brighton at home are solid v 7th and lower.
  • I do think West Ham are favoured today on the basis that they are the most consistent scorers. Brighton have had a woeful time recently scoring and only scored a penalty v Brighton.

15:00 - Leicester v Swansea - 1.6 Leicester

  • 2-0 Swansea and 1-2 Leicester last 2 head to heads.

Leicester (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 at home.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil v Huddersfield and Watford.
  • Unbeaten v 14th and lower.
  • Great home record outside top 5.

Swansea (19th)

  • 5 matches in new manager.
  • 2 consecutive home wins against Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Win and a draw away under new manager.

Conclusions

  • Do not under estimate Swansea under this new manager. Only 1 loss v Tottenham.
  • Beating Liverpool and Arsenal.
  • Unbeaten away under new manager.
  • Leicester are far better at home. They were really poor mid week against Everton, scoring only via a penalty.
  • A match where I could see both teams score today and a 2-1 / 1-2 correct score appeals.

15:00 - Man Utd v Huddersfield - 1.18 Man Utd (shortlist)

  • Revenge mission for Man Utd, particularly after a 2-0 loss v Spurs mid week.
  • 2-1 Huddersfield last head to head.
  • Man Utd have won 10/13 home matches while Huddersfield have lost by two or more goals in 8/11 away matches.
  • Huddersfield have lost 8/11 away matches.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Only 4 losses all season. Lost their last match. Do not expect 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only home loss v Man City.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 home matches v 8th and lower.

Huddersfield (17th)

  • Out of the bottom 3 at the moment but it is hugely competitive between 13th -20th.
  • 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 9 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score v top 10 away.
  • Conceded 20 of 25 goals away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This should be a win to nil for Man Utd. They might not breakthrough until the 2nd half so note that.
  • Another straighforward looking match.

15:00 - West Brom v Southampton - 2.82 West Brom

  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Southampton wins in head to heads.

West Brom (20th)

  • Only 1 win since 27th August 2018.
  • 11 games in for Alan Pardew.
  • Only 1 loss at home for West Brom under Pardew.
  • Only loss was v Man Utd.
  • Beat Brighton 2-0 last home match.
  • Season long, West Brom at home have only lost v top 4 teams.

Southampton (18th)

  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • No win in 12 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 win v bottom 4 teams.
  • Conceded the most either side of halftime.

Conclusions

  • West Ham are strong at home I think under Pardew, quieting the likes of Arsenal and Everton. I feel they can cope with Southampton.
  • It may be a goal-less match for a while. Saints matches v bottom 4 are goal shy.
  • Only 5 clean sheets Southampton. We have 2 blunt teams in attack.

17:30 - Arsenal v Everton - 1.35 Arsenal (shortlist)

  • The revenge of the Walcott? 2 goals for Everton mid week and Theo would love to rub it in against a manager who cast him aside.
  • 3-1 and 2-5 Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Fascinating signings for both sides. Aubameyang for Arsenal and Walcott for Everton and Tosun from Besiktas. Giroud is gone too now for Arsenal.

Arsenal (6th)

  • 2 losses recently came away.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home came v 2nd.
  • 100% home wins v 5th and lower.

Everton (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 came via Walcott's 2 goals.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side yet.
  • Failed to score 2 goals away v top 10 teams.

Conclusions

  • The waters are muddied by new and influential signings, particularly in the attacking third for both sides.
  • The Everton win v Leicester was care of Walcott, but was not wholly unexpected.
  • Everton away are a different animal. Failing to win v top 7 and failing to score that 2nd goal (yet....) v top 7.
  • I expect Arsenal to continue to reap rewards at home, and struggle away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Arsenal.
  • Both teams may score - it is an uncomfortable Arsenal habit.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Sampdoria v Torino - 2.5 Sampdoria

  • 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 was a shock loss at home to Benevento.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Solid at home, only 2 defeats v 3rd and 14th.
  • Scored in all bar 1 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 7th and lower in all bar 1 of those matches.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Torino (10th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 came v Napoli.
  • 2 losses away v 2nd and 11th.
  • Only 3 away wins v 3rd, 9th and 20th.

Conclusions

  • 2.5 the favourite....yes the market cannot split these 2.
  • I was going to say that Sampdoria are excellent at home, scoring 2+ goals in unbeaten matches v 7th and lower.
  • And then I saw that Torino had only 4 defeats and only 2 away defeats but a lot of away draws.
  • No angle for me, sorry.

19:45 - Inter v Crotone - 1.26 Inter (shortlist)

  • 2-1 Crotone and 0-2 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.

Inter (4th)

  • No win in 7 matches now ends I think what looked like a run for the title.
  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 4 wins to nil at home v 11th and lower.
  • 4 wins and a draw away v bottom 5. Should be stronger at home....right?
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Icardi is the scorer. If he does not play, caution!

Crotone (17th)

  • 6 losses and 2 wins away v bottom 8.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 100% defeats v top 9 teams, 9 of the 10 defeats were to nil.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 1-1 draw. This sequence surely will end and it should end for a home side tending to win to nil v 11th and lower and an away side with 9/10 losses v top 9 losses to nil.
  • Inter are the likeliest leaders at halftime. A good tradable match if Crotone surprise us with a goal.

SPANISH LA LIGA

19:45 - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.22 Real Madrid (shortlist)

  • 1-1 Levante last head to head.

Levante (16th)

  • No win in 9 and in 7 at home.
  • 0-1-0-1-0-0 scored recently at home.
  • 3-1-2-2 goals conceded in recent matches.
  • Only 1 1-0 win home and away v 14th and higher.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • Back on track with 11 goals in 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 3-2-3 scored away wins v 15th and lower.
  • 12 of 17 away goals scored first half.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid are back and scoring after a blip which has ruined their title hopes.
  • I fear for Levante today if this scoring can continue. Real have shown they can score 3+ goals v teams 15th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Real Madrid have scored 12 goals first half away.
  • This should not be another 1-1 today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Aston Villa v Burton - 1.44 Aston Villa (shortlist)

  • 1-1 and 0-4 Aston Villa in the last 2 head to heads.

Aston Villa (3rd)

  • Play off place and oh so near an automatic promotion place. Expect a Villa expected to win, to perform well.
  • 5 consecutive wins, 8 goals scored in their last 2 home wins.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 at home v bottom 4.
  • Scored first in 10/14 at home.

Burton Albion (24th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats conceding 12 goals.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 team away.
  • Only 1 win home and away in 16 matches v top 13 teams.
  • Scored only 1 goal away v top 13 teams.

Conclusions

  • This must be an excellent chance for Villa against a side struggling to even score away v top 13 teams!
  • We took on Burton in a live chat recently and they did as per their form. They kept the match to 0-0 but conceded first in the 2nd half.
  • Watch for that potential angle.
  • It seems obvious to point out we oppose any shock Burton lead.

15:00 - Fulham v Nottm Forest - 1.67 Fulham (shortlist)

  • 3-2 Fulham and 1-3 Fulham in the last 2 head to heads.

fulham (6th)

  • 6 wins and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.
  • 15 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nottm Forest (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 1 win and 7 defeats v top 6.
  • 2-0. 2-1. 2-1 losses away v 2nd-5th.

Conclusions

  • Forest did beat Wolves recently. That was a shock to all.
  • The market suspects true form to show today. i.e. a 2-0 or 2-1 loss v a Fulham side in rock solid recent form.
  • I am with Fulham today. Take on any Forest lead and hope they do not shock again away from home v a top 6 team.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Freiburg v Leverkusen - 1.94 Leverkusen

  • 2-1 Freiburg and 4-0 Bayer last 2 head to heads.

Freiburg (12th)

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 3rd a 0-1.
  • Not beaten top 4.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen (2nd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Only 1 loss in 15 v Bayern Munich.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0.
  • Losses away v 1st, 11th and 15th.scored and conceded in all bar 2 away.
  • 16 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 sides in good recent form. Slight favour towards Leverkusen. Freiburg have yet to beat top 4 teams.
  • Both teams to score looks a strong pattern and I would be keener to lay a Freiburg lead.
  • Remember Leverkusen have scored in every match.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim - 2.76 Hertha Berlin

  • 1-3 Hoff and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Another 'impossible' match with 2.76 odds the favourite but as this is the Hoff, I will research.

Hertha Berlin (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 home losses came v top 7.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/10 at home.

Hoffenheim (9th)

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2+ goals conceded v top 12 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/9 v top 12 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong pattern for both. Hoffenheim are poor this year, conceding 2 goals regularly away and on that basis are layable if scoring first today.

14:30 - Mainz v Bayern Munich - 1.3 Bayern (shortlist)

  • 2-2 and 4-0 Bayern in the last 2 head to heads.

Mainz (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches was a 3-2.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only led in 2 matches at halftime all season.
  • Beat Leverkusen 3-1 at home (2nd) but wins tend to congregate v 11th and lower in the league.

Bayern (1st)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 3-4-5 goals scored in their last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.
  • All wins home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Bayern have had a number of 0-1 wins v bottom sides away but they have scored 12 goals in 3 matches.
  • Mainz seem to offer little. They have a recent tendency to concede 2 goals at least and play a side capable of this.
  • I would tend to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in Bayern matches.

14:30 - Schalke v Werder Bremen - 1.83 Schalke

  • 3-0 Werder and 1-2 Schalke in the last 2 head to heads.

Schalke (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches was v Leipzig.
  • 4 draws and 3 wins at home last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches and last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v Bayern.
  • 2+ goals scored v 14th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first 9/10 at home, led halftime 8/10 at home.

Werder Bremen (16th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 10 matches under new manager. All 3 wins under new manager.
  • 4 losses in 5 away. Manager has not changed their fortunes away.
  • All defeats v top 5.
  • All defeats this season v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Werder still have not solved their away form under new manager so may have to wait today. They have lost to all top 5.
  • Schalke are consistently scoring and should be favoured today even if Werder score.
  • Do remember Werder are under a new manager (remember what Swansea have achieved under new manager). We may see a form-busting display from Werder but on season long form, Schalke should not lose.
  • Schalke have tended to score at home and lead at halftime at home so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - 2.32 Wolfsburg

  • The home side has won the last 4 head to heads.

Wolfsburg (13th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Drawitis - 11 draws, 9 of which were score draws.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower sees 5 score draws and 2 wins.

Stuttgart (14th)

  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • 13 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It looks as if Wolfsburg may not lose today, but then again they may not win!
  • A score draw is highly likely of course when Wolfsburg play and they are unbeaten v 7th and lower, with 5 score draws.

17:30 - Mgladbach v RB Leipzig - 2.58 Mgladbach

  • 1-2 Leipzig and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.

Mgladbach (7th)

  • Last 4 defeats came away from home.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 70% of home matches at halftime were 1-0 or 0-0.
  • Only 1 win v teams above them in the league came v Bayern Munich.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leipzig (5th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 away win v top 12 was a 2-3 v a then-faltering Dortmund.
  • Conceded 2 goals away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • First thing to note is the odds for the favourite. 2.58 suggests a tough match to call.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Mgladbach.

16:00 - Lille v PSG - 1.19 PSG (shortlist)

  • PSG have won recent head to heads.

Lille (17th)

  • 3-1 PSG win on 9th December.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 0-1 and 0-4 v 3rd and 4th at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals at home came 2nd half.

PSG (1st)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime.
  • 100% wins v 13th and lower. 2+ goals scored in each of those matches.

Conclusions

  • PSG should win, and score 2 goals as they do v 13th and lower.
  • In 12 of the last 13 matches we have seen no 0-0 at halftime PSG so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.